The Outfield '15 version

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I know so much of that can be stretched to mean any number of things--that they'll really be splitting time, that they're going to trade Vic, that they're going to let Vic run himself out there so its clear to everyone why Castillo should start.
 
But taking that quote at face value, I find it infuriating. Just on principle alone--you sign a guy essentially starting with his age 27 season and you're going to sit him down? Given the investment they made the comfort they seem to have with not maximizing what is likely to be one of his more valuable years to the team is just confusing me at this point.

 
I think it's important to keep in mind that when they signed Castillo, they probably envisioned him slotting into center field in 2015, not right field.  It's Betts' emergence that has really complicated the issue (in an entirely good way).
 
The quote itself just comes down to playing the media with the favoring the veteran schtick.  Internally, I'm sure they'd prefer to play Castillo but they can't go blabbing that in the media, especially the Boston media.  I don't think we can read too much into any of it until all the dominos fall and at the very least, the 25-man Opening Day roster is set.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

The quote itself just comes down to playing the media with the favoring the veteran schtick.  Internally, I'm sure they'd prefer to play Castillo but they can't go blabbing that in the media, especially the Boston media.  I don't think we can read too much into any of it until all the dominos fall and at the very least, the 25-man Opening Day roster is set.

 
This is what I think as well. Really seems like PR + Managing the veteran's sensitivity. They're trying to massage a looming controversy, and really, see if Victorino will really turn on the regular season switch as people seem to be assuming he will - since he did so in 2013. It's a tricky one though; how long do you give Victorino (who it seems will complain anyway, short of playing everyday), and how do you find at bats for Rusney? Victorino's really going to be behind the 8-ball here. He's going to have to be good and healthy from the start, or the noise is going to rise ever more loudly for him to give way.
 
The minute he loses his spot, he's not going to get it back; I think he knows it too, he's really been holding back (defensively at least) this spring, but I don't see how he can do that once the regular season starts. The RF job is his, but he's on a short, short leash.

 

[E5 Yaz]

@bradfo: Farrell reiterates Victorino is healthy and is teams starting RF

 
 

@alexspeier: Farrell on Castillo's role: TBD.

 
"Hey, Look! Victornio's healthy again! Have a hole in your outfield? We'd hate to trade our starting right fielder, but we'll do it ... and throw in some millions, for the right deal!"

 

[The X Man Cometh]

 
This is what I think as well. Really seems like PR + Managing the veteran's sensitivity. They're trying to massage a looming controversy, and really, see if Victorino will really turn on the regular season switch as people seem to be assuming he will - since he did so in 2013. It's a tricky one though; how long do you give Victorino (who it seems will complain anyway, short of playing everyday), and how do you find at bats for Rusney? Victorino's really going to be behind the 8-ball here. He's going to have to be good and healthy from the start, or the noise is going to rise ever more loudly for him to give way.
 
The minute he loses his spot, he's not going to get it back; I think he knows it too, he's really been holding back (defensively at least) this spring, but I don't see how he can do that once the regular season starts. The RF job is his, but he's on a short, short leash.

 
Yeah, this is why I can't bring myself to be concerned. If Victorino rakes, or is something like 2013 Victorino, he's quite a worthy starter, and will be the least of our problems. If Victorino struggles, or is 2014-2015 Victorino, then Castillo gets out there and the "controversy" has solves itself.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

"Hey, Look! Victornio's healthy again! Have a hole in your outfield? We'd hate to trade our starting right fielder, but we'll do it ... and throw in some millions, for the right deal!"

 
This.  2013 Victorino isn't limping through that door.
 
Though if Victornio gets hurt - and I suspect an injury isn't "if," but "when" with 2015 Victorino - then even if he can't be dealt, it solves the OF logjam in the short-term and he'd be easier to Wally Pipp later after Castillo asserts himself in RF in the longview.

 

[Harry Hooper]

If it comes to it, having Castillo adjust (via AAA for a few weeks) to playing games virtually every day with significant travel distances mixed in ≠ hurting or wasting him.

 

[soxhop411]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  2m
2 minutes ago
Why Mookie actually might be the next McCutchen - with thoughts from Ortiz, Hanley and @TheCutch22 himself.... http://fb.me/2JYSsDDKM 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

On the face of it, playing Castillo just adds to the inexperience spread throughout the lineup: Betts, Bogaerts, (Vazquez), Castillo. That's almost half the lineup. I think it's justifiable to see if the proven veteran Victorino contributes (or even Craig) before putting too many 2015 eggs into the rookie/sophomore basket.
 
It's a long season. 

 

[MikeM]

 
Though if Victornio gets hurt - and I suspect an injury isn't "if," but "when" with 2015 Victorino - then even if he can't be dealt, it solves the OF logjam in the short-term and he'd be easier to Wally Pipp later after Castillo asserts himself in RF in the longview.

 
Up to this point that all has sounded a lot better in hypothetical theory then it's going to look come hard decision time imo. 
 
Castillo was an all in bet with it's chips already firmly pushed towards the middle of the pot. Push come to shove, and once past all the formality games...i'd honestly expect to see Victorino get an outright release (if/when we can't find a single trade partner) before going down a reality road of "well, i guess Castillo can always bid his time waiting around until scenario X/Y/Z plays itself out". 

 

[Rasputin]

 
Up to this point that all has sounded a lot better in hypothetical theory then it's going to look come hard decision time imo. 
 
Castillo was an all in bet with it's chips already firmly pushed towards the middle of the pot. Push come to shove, and once past all the formality games...i'd honestly expect to see Victorino get an outright release (if/when we can't find a single trade partner) before going down a reality road of "well, i guess Castillo can always bid his time waiting around until scenario X/Y/Z plays itself out". 

I don't see a release as being remotely likely.

There are 162 games. We have four outfielders for three spots. Mookie Betts is the only one who has come close to playing 162 recently. If you just divide up the playing time as evenly as possible, everyone gets 120 games.

I think they'd be okay with that.

 

[benhogan]

 
Up to this point that all has sounded a lot better in hypothetical theory then it's going to look come hard decision time imo. 
 
Castillo was an all in bet with it's chips already firmly pushed towards the middle of the pot. Push come to shove, and once past all the formality games...i'd honestly expect to see Victorino get an outright release (if/when we can't find a single trade partner) before going down a reality road of "well, i guess Castillo can always bid his time waiting around until scenario X/Y/Z plays itself out". 

Nope, not happening, less then a 1% chance of Vic being released.
 
Injuries happen, a lot... Vic and Castillo will get plenty of time on the field this season (unless one gets injured).

 

[MikeM]

Injuries happen, a lot... Vic and Castillo will get plenty of time on the field this season (unless one gets injured).

 
Again, sounds great and makes sense in hypothetical theory. But I ultimately just can't see a time share approach to start the season winning out is all. For me, starting your best players and the opportunity value in doing so trumps any concern of preserving potential depth there. If that ultimately means we have to take a step backwards on that latter...so be it.   
 
I guess we'll see how it shakes out in reality soon enough though, and in the event Ben does not find a team in the very near future that's willing to throw us some sort of value bone for Victorino with most (if not all) of his freight paid. 

 

[Rasputin]

 
Again, sounds great and makes sense in hypothetical theory. But I ultimately just can't see a time share approach to start the season winning out is all. For me, starting your best players and the opportunity value in doing so trumps any concern of preserving potential depth there. If that ultimately means we have to take a step backwards on that latter...so be it.   
 
I guess we'll see how it shakes out in reality soon enough though, and in the event Ben does not find a team in the very near future that's willing to throw us some sort of value bone for Victorino with most (if not all) of his freight paid. 

We don't want to trade Vic, we need someone to back up center and right and if we trade Vic, we have to rely on Craig or Nava and that would suck.

 

[E5 Yaz]

We don't want to trade Vic, we need someone to back up center and right and if we trade Vic, we have to rely on Craig or Nava and that would suck.

 
Holt ... Brock Holt
 
With JBJ in the minors

 

[JohntheBaptist]

If Betts gets hurt, Castillo plays CF. So then you're covering for RF basically in any event of injury to either. Between Holt, Bradley, Nava and Craig, I'd say they're more than covered.
 
If they get a trade partner for Victorino with a reasonable offer, he's gone.

 

[In my lifetime]

If they get a trade partner for Victorino with a reasonable offer, he's gone.

I agree. The problem is that at 13M for this year Victorino is a negative asset. Until he proves himself healthy I would be shocked if any team offers anything for him unless the RS pick more than half his contract. A tremendous offer would be any team just taking him and his contract off the RS hands, but I don't see a mini-Dodger gift happening anytime soon.

So far this Spring, Craig has been able to show that he does have value at his age and level of compensation. Unfortunately, Victorino has not.

 

[NDame616]

I agree. The problem is that at 13M for this year Victorino is a negative asset. Until he proves himself healthy I would be shocked if any team offers anything for him unless the RS pick more than half his contract. A tremendous offer would be any team just taking him and his contract off the RS hands, but I don't see a mini-Dodger gift happening anytime soon.

So far this Spring, Craig has been able to show that he does have value at his age and level of compensation. Unfortunately, Victorino has not.

 
I'm not even sure if a team would want Vic at $6.5M. This preseason he's:
-Told the media he wants the Sox to trade the guys competing for his position
-Batted below .200
-Not been great defensively
-Adjusted his batting sides because of injury
 
And this is all coming off of a missed year and an offseason with major back surgery.
 
If I were a team and I needed an OF, I wouldn't pay more than a few million for Victorino. I certainly wouldn't give up anything for him. 

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

If a team wanted to give the Red Sox anything of value for Victorino, and all it took was paying half the freight, I would do it faster than The Mysteries of Laura should've been off the air.

 

[joe dokes]

I really dont see the problem if Victorino and Betts both play well enough to keep Castillo in a not-starting role.  I don't consider the pants-wetting & screeching about "wasting money" from talk radio to be a problem.  If "depth" meant that JBJ goes out every day and hits .200 or that Nava would have to go out and hit righty for a month, people would complain.  Now, when "depth" means that they have some (presumably) raking from Castillo, people complain. I'd rather have to "too many good players" problem.

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

I really dont see the problem if Victorino and Betts both play well enough to keep Castillo in a not-starting role.  I don't consider the pants-wetting & screeching about "wasting money" from talk radio to be a problem.  If "depth" meant that JBJ goes out every day and hits .200 or that Nava would have to go out and hit righty for a month, people would complain.  Now, when "depth" means that they have some (presumably) raking from Castillo, people complain. I'd rather have to "too many good players" problem.

It isn't the issue of Victorino playing well enough to keep Castillo in a non-starting role that people have a problem with. It is the issue of Victorino keeping Castillo in a non-starting role just because he is "healthy". I have never been a big advocate for spring statistics, but Victorino has done nothing this spring to suggest that he gives us a better chance at winning than Castillo. Put aside the horrible batting statistics and just go by your trained or untrained scouting eye. He has given up switch hitting because of sore body parts, he isn't aggressive in the field, he looks slow, he looks tentative, his bat looks slow, he looks like he struggles to hit breaking pitches from righties hitting from the right side. Meanwhile Castillo looks great and is in his prime years. This isn't an issue of 2013 Victorino keeping Castillo in the minors or on the bench; the issue is that an older, inferior player who may cost us a couple of wins is keeping Castillo in the minors or on the bench. 

 

[joe dokes]

It isn't the issue of Victorino playing well enough to keep Castillo in a non-starting role that people have a problem with. It is the issue of Victorino keeping Castillo in a non-starting role just because he is "healthy". I have never been a big advocate for spring statistics, but Victorino has done nothing this spring to suggest that he gives us a better chance at winning than Castillo. Put aside the horrible batting statistics and just go by your trained or untrained scouting eye. He has given up switch hitting because of sore body parts, he isn't aggressive in the field, he looks slow, he looks tentative, his bat looks slow, he looks like he struggles to hit breaking pitches from righties hitting from the right side. Meanwhile Castillo looks great and is in his prime years. This isn't an issue of 2013 Victorino keeping Castillo in the minors or on the bench; the issue is that an older, inferior player who may cost us a couple of wins is keeping Castillo in the minors or on the bench. 

 
The manager is assuming that if Victorino is "healthy" he will also be "good."  This isn't that bad an assumption, since he was good the last time he was healthy. And if healthy, he is probably a better RF than Castillo for now anyway. (Do I think he will remain healthy? No, I don't. But I really dont know anything.  My untrained eye hasn't seen enough of him on TV to make any judgments.)
 
I assume that if Victorino continues to be slow and unaggressive -- owing either to bad health or fear of it -- when the season starts or doesn't hit for two weeks that the manager will make changes.  I also assume that over the first couple of weeks, Castillo will play anyway, in both CF and RF.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
The manager is assuming that if Victorino is "healthy" he will also be "good."  This isn't that bad an assumption, since he was good the last time he was healthy. And if healthy, he is probably a better RF than Castillo for now anyway. (Do I think he will remain healthy? No, I don't. But I really dont know anything.  My untrained eye hasn't seen enough of him on TV to make any judgments.)
 
I assume that if Victorino continues to be slow and unaggressive -- owing either to bad health or fear of it -- when the season starts or doesn't hit for two weeks that the manager will make changes.  I also assume that over the first couple of weeks, Castillo will play anyway, in both CF and RF.

 
But they are (or Victorino is) claiming he is "healthy" right now, and he does not look good for all the reasons Pedro 4 99MVP stated.  THAT is the big concern right now.  If he's healthy and playing well, all good.  But if he's "healthy" and playing like shit, then him playing ahead of Castillo is a big problem.

 

[Devizier]

Victorino has 32 plate appearances this spring. I understand that it's all we've got (as fans) to evaluate his playing ability, but it's far from definitive.
 
Just for reference, Shane batted 178 with a 275 OBP and 289 SLG in spring 2013.

 

[joe dokes]

 
But they are (or Victorino is) claiming he is "healthy" right now, and he does not look good for all the reasons Pedro 4 99MVP stated.  THAT is the big concern right now.  If he's healthy and playing well, all good.  But if he's "healthy" and playing like shit, then him playing ahead of Castillo is a big problem.

 
Yes. If he is playing like shit, and continues to play, that is a problem. Should Victorino not get a hit by the 6th inning of Opening Day, I will join the chorus.  My guess is that Farrell will give him slightly longer.
 
I'm not good enough to make any judgments about how 2 players look when one has played 7 games, the other 12, and most of those games haven't been on TV.
 
 
 
 
Victorino does have a higher OBP, though. <_<

 

[bakahump]

We are stating the obvious.  Sure if Vic plays like shit and keeps playing thats bad.  I am sure Farrell feels the same.
 
But what if he plays just ok.....(say a .720-.730 OPS)?   And during that time what if Castillo in limited time is .780+?  
 
Or what if Vic is .770ish (career avg)  but Castillo is looking very strong with an .850 in limited time?
 
Its not the obvious answers we worry about being made wrongly.....its the nuanced ones.

 

[joe dokes]

We are stating the obvious.  Sure if Vic plays like shit and keeps playing thats bad.  I am sure Farrell feels the same.
 
But what if he plays just ok.....(say a .720-.730 OPS)?   And during that time what if Castillo in limited time is .780+?  
 
Or what if Vic is .770ish (career avg)  but Castillo is looking very strong with an .850 in limited time?
 
Its not the obvious answers we worry about being made wrongly.....its the nuanced ones.

 
I'm really not too worried about the "problem" of both playing well.  As to the rest,  I guess I'm just not a fan of worrying about "what's the manager gonna do if he has a hard decision?" (After the decision, I like to play "I wonder why he did that?").  
 
Overall, though, these things very rarely don't sort themselves out.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  2m
2 minutes ago
Why Mookie actually might be the next McCutchen - with thoughts from Ortiz, Hanley and @TheCutch22 himself.... http://fb.me/2JYSsDDKM 

I am a massive Mookie Betts fanboy but the hype is really getting way over the top.

 

[8slim]

It's an odd phenomenon that so many fans have such a strong desire to see the roster set, and seemingly locked, by opening day.  Unless Castillo tells the team that if they start him in Pawtucket he'll return to Cuba, I don't think it's worth freaking out about at the moment.  
 
Victorino will either start, or he won't.  
He'll either play well, or he won't.
He's either stay healthy, or he won't.
 
And then Farrell and Ben will make the necessary decisions.
 
Hell, didn't David Ortiz not become a regular in the lineup until mid-May of 2003?  

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Hell, didn't David Ortiz not become a regular in the lineup until mid-May of 2003?  

 
He did not becoming full-time until mid-June.  The first stretch that he started four straight games was June 10.  In the team's first 81 games, he hit 3 home runs and batted .294, prompting Manny to call him "Juan Pierre."  He hit 28 home runs in the second half.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Victorino could be the best 4th outfielder in the league, if he acquiesces. Part of that setup is giving him every chance to prove that he's capable of being the everyday RF'r while letting nature take its course. If his play makes it impossible to consign him to a secondary role...win-win.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

If I knew how to start a poll, I'd do this simple one before final cuts are made this week:
 
1. You're choice for 4th Outfielder (assuming one or both of Castillo/Victorino make the starting roster)
 
- Jackie Bradley
- Rusney Castillo
- Shane Victorino
 
2. You're choice for 5th outfielder/1B:
 
- Alan Craig
- Daniel Nava
 
Under the assumption that these are the remaining choices (I think it's clear that Leon is the 2nd catcher). It means that one person from each group is sent down or traded. 

 

[Rasputin]

If I knew how to start a poll, I'd do this simple one before final cuts are made this week:
 
1. You're choice for 4th Outfielder (assuming one or both of Castillo/Victorino make the starting roster)
 
- Jackie Bradley
- Rusney Castillo
- Shane Victorino
 
2. You're choice for 5th outfielder/1B:
 
- Alan Craig
- Daniel Nava
 
Under the assumption that these are the remaining choices (I think it's clear that Leon is the 2nd catcher). It means that one person from each group is sent down or traded. 

 
I don't see how anyone can be for anything but sending Bradley down. 
 
If you can stash Craig at AAA, you do it. If not, you try to trade Nava, then Craig, then release Nava.

 

[KillerBs]

I think that making Victorino the starting RF and sending Castillo to Pawtucket to start the season is the right call here (assuming that you cant find anyone to take Craig or Victorino off your hands now). That is not because I think Victorino is better than Rusney and it is certainly not because I think the veteran Victorino deserves the job because he is the vet and 2013 WS hero etc.
 
My reasoning behind deferring to Victorino in April and getting Rusney out of town to AAA has everything to do with putting Rusney in the best position to succeed in the mid to long term. The difference in our investment in Rusney vs Victorino can hardly be overstated. Rusney is the future; Victorino is the past. Thus the first priority in sorting this out IMO has to be doing what is best for Rusney in integrating him into a ML player. Right now, I think that is getting him a month worth of ABs in AAA out of the spot light while Victorino gets his starting RF gig and we find a few ABs for Craig here or there I don't know where. Reassess after 30 games or so.
 
If at that time Castillo is settled and hitting AAA pitching, you make him the starting RF. I dont think it matters much what Victorino is doing; if Rusney looks ready to go, anoint him the RF and tell him he is playing everyday until Labor Day. If Rusney is due a call up in early May, obviously you need to move someone. If Victorino gives any indication of bitching about being a reserve OFer, you move him, eat the salary, get him out of town, even if he may be the better 4th OFer for 2015. If Shane is going to be a good soldier and HELP Rusney get established as the starting RF and otherwise STFU then, I guess you need to be thinking about a way to move Craig or Nava, even for pennies on the dollar, both of whom are also of far less importance to the Red Sox future than Castillo.        

 

[RedOctober3829]

FORT MYERS, Fla. – Hot Red Sox youngster Mookie Betts, who is tearing up the Grapefruit League and inciting comparisons to superstars, and Cuban import Rusney Castillo are both as impressive in person as they are on their recent stat sheets.
So the Red Sox, who had perhaps the least productive outfield in baseball last year, look like they'll have a chance to have the most productive one in baseball this year. And maybe the most productive one at Triple-A, too.
“Betts and Castillo both are stars,” one scout said.
That should prove true, but for the moment, the may be on divergent paths. Betts is written in pen as the team's center fielder and leadoff hitter, and no less than Hanley Ramirezguaranteed they'll all make sure he will be an All-Star this year (that wouldn't shock anyone, considering Betts' talent but the talent that follows him in Boston's crazy-good lineup)
Meanwhile, Castillo, who's been almost as impressive in recent days but was slowed earlier by an injury, may be a numbers game-victim. The Red Sox promise to carry him until the end of spring, but barring injury, it appears unlikely they'll find room on the big-league team for Castillo, who could instead be ticketed to be the best and most expensive ($72.5 million, seven years) player in not only Pawtucket but anywhere around the minors.
There's been a lot of buzz about possible trades for outfield extras Allen Craig and Daniel Nava. But for now, Boston's rallying cry appears to be, “depth, not deals.”
 

The reality is, they probably wouldn't get fair value now for Craig or Nava, or for that matter two more veterans, Shane Victorino or Mike Napoli, who's also burning it up here. Like so many others in spring, he says he feels good. But in his case, it's probably a major change. Napoli had a serious operation to help him sleep, and a better-rested Napoli looks primed for a career year. His broken-bat homer in a 14-1 win over the Twins Monday was his fourth of the spring.
If so, watch out. Boston's lineup looks like the best in baseball following a season in which they wielded an uncharacteristically limp bat. The keys could be Betts, a converted second baseman who seems to be doing well in center, and Ramirez, the converted shortstop.
 

When manager John Farrell, who led the team to a World Series title in 2013 before the team fell all the way to last place last year, signaled on Monday that Victorino hadn't done anything to lose his right field job, that suggested Castillo could start as the class of Pawtucket. Word is, Craig and Nava, the only lefty swinger of the bunch, will be kept as name backups, while Jackie Bradley Jr., who's had a very good camp, will go to Pawtucket for more seasoning following his rough 2014 season. Bradley received interest from theBraves a while back, but a trade never materialized.
 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25130222/boston-buzz-mookie-raking-depth-over-deals-rusney-minors-bound

 

[glennhoffmania]

Heyman weighs in:
 

So the Red Sox, who had perhaps the least productive outfield in baseball last year, look like they'll have a chance to have the most productive one in baseball this year. And maybe the most productive one at Triple-A, too.
 
“Betts and Castillo both are stars,” one scout said.
 
That should prove true, but for the moment, the may be on divergent paths. Betts is written in pen as the team's center fielder and leadoff hitter, and no less than Hanley Ramirez guaranteed they'll all make sure he will be an All-Star this year (that wouldn't shock anyone, considering Betts' talent but the talent that follows him in Boston's crazy-good lineup)
 
Meanwhile, Castillo, who's been almost as impressive in recent days but was slowed earlier by an injury, may be a numbers game-victim. The Red Sox promise to carry him until the end of spring, but barring injury, it appears unlikely they'll find room on the big-league team for Castillo, who could instead be ticketed to be the best and most expensive ($72.5 million, seven years) player in not only Pawtucket but anywhere around the minors.
 

 
When manager John Farrell, who led the team to a World Series title in 2013 before the team fell all the way to last place last year, signaled on Monday that Victorino hadn't done anything to lose his right field job, that suggested Castillo could start as the class of Pawtucket. Word is, Craig and Nava, the only lefty swinger of the bunch, will be kept as name backups, while Jackie Bradley Jr., who's had a very good camp, will go to Pawtucket for more seasoning following his rough 2014 season. Bradley received interest from the Braves a while back, but a trade never materialized.
 

 
I really believe, and hope, that this team will put the best lineup on the field.  And if that doesn't include Victorino, too bad.  And for Victorino's sake, he should keep his mouth shut and play as well as possible whenever he's given the opportunity, since he's presumably playing for his last contract.
 
Christ, Red posted the same article a hair sooner.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I really believe, and hope, that this team will put the best lineup on the field.  And if that doesn't include Victorino, too bad.

I feel the same way but I won't be too bothered if Victorino plays over Castillo to start the season. Unless you think Rusney Castillo is ungodly good, playing Victorino over him for 20-30 games to start the season is going to cost us a small fraction of a win in expectation at the most. Every win counts but its important to be realistic about the stakes here, at least of the initial decision.

 

[joe dokes]

I think that making Victorino the starting RF and sending Castillo to Pawtucket to start the season is the right call here (assuming that you cant find anyone to take Craig or Victorino off your hands now). That is not because I think Victorino is better than Rusney and it is certainly not because I think the veteran Victorino deserves the job because he is the vet and 2013 WS hero etc.
 
My reasoning behind deferring to Victorino in April and getting Rusney out of town to AAA has everything to do with putting Rusney in the best position to succeed in the mid to long term. The difference in our investment in Rusney vs Victorino can hardly be overstated. Rusney is the future; Victorino is the past. Thus the first priority in sorting this out IMO has to be doing what is best for Rusney in integrating him into a ML player. Right now, I think that is getting him a month worth of ABs in AAA out of the spot light while Victorino gets his starting RF gig and we find a few ABs for Craig here or there I don't know where. Reassess after 30 games or so.
 
If at that time Castillo is settled and hitting AAA pitching, you make him the starting RF. I dont think it matters much what Victorino is doing; if Rusney looks ready to go, anoint him the RF and tell him he is playing everyday until Labor Day. If Rusney is due a call up in early May, obviously you need to move someone. If Victorino gives any indication of bitching about being a reserve OFer, you move him, eat the salary, get him out of town, even if he may be the better 4th OFer for 2015. If Shane is going to be a good soldier and HELP Rusney get established as the starting RF and otherwise STFU then, I guess you need to be thinking about a way to move Craig or Nava, even for pennies on the dollar, both of whom are also of far less importance to the Red Sox future than Castillo.        

 
 
This is a nice theory, but it presumes a lot...most significantly that Castillo "needs time" at AAA out of the spotlight in order to be in the best position to succeed long term. It's just as likely that he and the team both think that starting 2-3 Major League games a week in April will put him in the best position to integrate into MLB and succeed.  I dont really know how anyone can say that one is better than the other.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Yeah the "maybe getting him consistent ABs in AAA is a way to integrate him etc" is just talking yourself into something. They obviously think he's capable, he hasn't shown anything in his limited time there to suggest otherwise, and there is really nothing about a trip to AAA that says anything guaranteed about getting integrated, whatever that means.
 
The "depth not deals" thing is frustrating. Even absent Victorino, the team has enviable flexibility and depth. Castillo should be starting with Victorino coming off the bench until a suitor is found for his services. Castill in AAA is a waste, pure and simple.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Yeah the "maybe getting him consistent ABs in AAA is a way to integrate him etc" is just talking yourself into something. They obviously think he's capable, he hasn't shown anything in his limited time there to suggest otherwise, and there is really nothing about a trip to AAA that says anything guaranteed about getting integrated, whatever that means.
 
The "depth not deals" thing is frustrating. Even absent Victorino, the team has enviable flexibility and depth. Castillo should be starting with Victorino coming off the bench until a suitor is found for his services. Castill in AAA is a waste, pure and simple.

 
I wonder if the deals just aren't there, ultimately. I have to think that other teams recognize that the Red Sox are about to go north with one, maybe two guys who don't really fit the roster. Would you offer them anything useful for Victorino or Craig right now, or would you wait and see if the Sox will get more desperate to move one of them in May when Castillo has an 800 OPS at Pawtucket?

 

[flymrfreakjar]

It's hard for me to imagine Castillo being worse than Victorino, and I'd be mildly shocked if he weren't considerably better this year. Plus he's smack in the middle of his prime, and has been getting rave reviews from everyone who's seen him or coached him. It's frustrating, and wins in April do count, especially in what appears to be a real dogfight in this division. Until Victorino is healthy or at least pain-free (may never happen...), I think they have to live with the most expensive 4th outfielder in the game.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's hard for me to imagine Castillo being worse than Victorino, and I'd be mildly shocked if he weren't considerably better this year. Plus he's smack in the middle of his prime, and has been getting rave reviews from everyone who's seen him or coached him. It's frustrating, and wins in April do count, especially in what appears to be a real dogfight in this division. Until Victorino is healthy or at least pain-free (may never happen...), I think they have to live with the most expensive 4th outfielder in the game.

Undeniably true. At the same time, if Castillo is a 3 win player over a full season and Victorino is a 1 win player, then the expected win cost of playing Victorino over Castillo for 20 games is around a quarter of a win. And that's assuming that Victorino is total shit at this point in his career. The stakes of this decision are not measured in wins, but in small fractions of a single win.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Why is it assumed it will only be for 20 games?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Why is it assumed it will only be for 20 games?

It might not be. But one might assume that the production of the players over a period like that might start to shift the team's calculus. If Victorino still looks cooked after a month of real ABs, Castillo still looks great, and the team still refuses to do nothing, freak out at that point. But Castillo merely starting the year in AAA and Victorino starting the year in RF, by itself, isn't reason to get worked up.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Why is it assumed it will only be for 20 games?

 
Because 19 is a prime number

 

[foulkehampshire]

Hanley and Victorino are not Iron Men, both are likely to at least spend time on the DL throughout the season. Papi is 39, and probably a candidate for a maintenance break as well.  Rusney will get his 450-500 at-bats with the Sox somehow. 
 
If Victorino proves us wrong and is playing everyday at a high level, that's awesome as well. Only increases his chances to get traded for a better return.

 

[Rasputin]

Victorino played 30 games in 2014 and 120 in 2013.

Castillo hasn't played a full season in any league in years.

Ramirez hasn't played more than 128 games since 2012.

There's going to be enough playing time for everyone.

 

[E5 Yaz]

There's going to be enough playing time for everyone.

 
But not at the same time

 

[bosockboy]

Victorino played 30 games in 2014 and 120 in 2013.

Castillo hasn't played a full season in any league in years.

Ramirez hasn't played more than 128 games since 2012.

There's going to be enough playing time for everyone.

Not with both Craig and Nava on the roster. There's still a numbers issue.

 

[reggiecleveland]

 
But not at the same time

I think he expects they will conveniently stagger their injuries.

 

[DJnVa]

 
If Victorino proves us wrong and is playing everyday at a high level, that's awesome as well. Only increases his chances to get traded for a better return.

 
If they are not willing to go to Castillo now, when Victorino isn't knocking the cover off the ball, why would they do so if he was playing at a high level? If he's hitting, playing good defense and the team is winning they won't be dealing him.