No, it was pretty much just the injuries. From 2021 -a post-season team- we lost Ottavino, Schwarber, and people no one was clamoring to get back - Martin Perez, Garret Richards, Yacksel Rios, Hansel Robles.
Then we had the lockout.
But apart from that, the plan for 2021 was:
Rotation Newbies:
Sale - came back in 2021 and started 9 games with a 3.16 ERA. There's no reason to believe he wouldn't have gotten somewhere north of 25 starts, in 2022.
Eovaldi - same
Pivetta - same
Wacha - supposedly an upgrade over 2021 Martin Perez. Check. Good signing.
Rich Hill - supposedly an upgrade over Garret Richards. Check. Good signing. Also, maybe only had to hold the fort until Paxton.
Paxton - maybe ready the second half, maybe not, but a good gamble.
Houck/Whitlock - possible depth if they could be transitioned.
So, we got:
Sale - 2 starts. Basically all the days on the IL.
Eovaldi - 20 starts, down from 32 in 2021. Injured. 75 days on the IL.
Pivetta - 33 starts, 4.56 ERA. Up from 33. Basically the only repeater.
"Thank God for Wacha" 23 starts, 3.32 ERA. Injured. 54 days on the IL.
Rich Hill - 26 starts, 4.27 ERA. 40 days on the IL.
Garret Whitlock - 9 starts. Yo-yoed. Injured. 50 days on IL.
Tanner Houck - 4 starts. Yo-yoed. Injured. 57 days on the IL.
plus:
Winckowski - 14 starts, 5.89 ERA
Crawford - 12 starts, 5.43 ERA (some good starts though). Injured in Sept. 32 days on IL.
Bello - 11 starts, 4,71 ERA (mostly in junktime, but has the raw stuff)
Seabold - 5 starts, 11.29 ERA. (Also injured.)
That's 42 starts from AAA starters.
Somebody else can do the rotation and the bullpen. But that alone will pretty much sink a season.
You are absolutely and 1,000% right that I should have specified it wasn't just "unforeseen injuries" that ruined last year. It was a combination of unforeseen injuries, time on the IL that should have totally been expected based on career numbers, and underperformance that should have totally been expected based on career numbers. In short... based on career stats of the players he brought in. Bloom should have expected at least 25-30 starts from AAA starters and ended up with 42. He should have expected below average offensive performance from 2/3 of the OF and at least hedged 1b as well. He should have expected a combination of injuries (Arroyo) or horrible performance (Cordero) from depth pieces. In long...
Sale - totally fair, at least heading into 2022 (as opposed to 2023).
Eovaldi - in his career he's averaged about 24 starts per season. He should have been expected to miss about 8 starts because that is his career average. He missed 12 instead of 8, so we were a little "unlucky" with injury there. (FWIW, I tossed out 2020, even though in even a short year he still missed 25% of his starts. I also tossed out his year missed recovering from his second TJS).
Pivetta - he was a little bit better than what should have been expected. Over his career he's been a below average pitcher (87 ERA+) and he was a bit less bad last year (92 ERA+). Overall, he shouldn't have been expected to be an average pitcher, and he wasn't. On a big market team, that's fine for your 5th starter, though. It's not great when he's expected to be one of your most reliable starters, however.
Wacha - did a similar calculation here from Eovaldi (tossing out his rookie year, tossed out 2020) and he should have been expected to miss 8 starts (depending on what you want to call an average of 23.5 starts, but I went on the "healthy" side). He made - 23 starts - about exactly what one should have expected based on his career data.
Hill - just looked at his career as a starter, and he should have been expected to miss 9 starts based on his career numbers, but he only missed 6, so we got a little "lucky" from what should have been expected.
Paxton - averaged 21 starts per season leading into last year (and I tossed out both 2020 and 2021 recovering from TJS). He was always pretty much a good bet to miss between 3-15 starts per season BEFORE the surgery.
All this is to show that, reasonably speaking, Bloom should have expected needing to cover 8 starts from Eovaldi, 8 from Wacha and 9 from Hill or in essence you needed another full starting pitcher (25 starts). So no, when you had 3 of your starting 5 pitchers whom one should have EXPECTED to miss a good chunk of the season and your (at the time) 2nd most reliable piece should have been expected to be a bad to below average starting (Pivetta and his career 87 ERA+), I don't think that was good roster construction to begin with. It was made even worse by taking a bet on another guy whom was always a safe bet to miss between 3 - 19 starts BEFORE having Tommy John Surgery.
When I have more time I can look more in depth to the bullpen but briefly on the line up (just using career stats):
C: Vazquez - obviously he's seen as a defense first catcher, but he has a career 85 OPS+ and produced in Boston for a 109 OPS+. He was excellent offensively in Boston and it made all the sense in the world to trade him. Good move by Bloom there.
1b: Dalbec - not personally a fan of the player / profile but Dalbec had a wonderful August and September, so I can at least understand seeing what he had. This is of course the risk with prospects.
2b: Story - didn't have an injury history; wasn't fair to expect he'd get injured last year. That one was totally unforeseen, no argument.
SS: Bogey was expected to be a middle of the order fixture with a career 117 OPS+ and he was better than expected with a 131 OPS+.
3b: Devers - see above.
LF - Verdugo - career 107 OPS+ and he had a 102 OPS+. A little worse than expected, but hardly a drag on the line up.
CF - Hernandez (not talking about the injury, just performance) was a below average hitter for his career (97 OPS+) and he was below average again last year when he was on the field (75 OPS+)
RF - Bradley Jr career OPS+ of 84 and was at 51 last year. His career stat line suggested he'd suck offensively and he did.
DH - Martinez was a worse than his career averages (117 OPS+ last year; career 132 OPS+) but generally speaking players tail off after their prime and his was a soft landing (assume the same for Turner, for instance).
Bench:
Arroyo - should have been expected to miss a huge chunk of time because he always misses a huge chunk of time. He missed - a huge chunk of time. (This wasn't exactly a "Spacey is Keyser Soze?!?!" moment).
Cordero - over his career he's been a bad baseball player (83 OPS+) and he was a bad baseball player (92 OPS+). Similarly, not a shocking outcome.
Plawecki - expected to suck offensively (career 79 OPS+ and he sucked offensively with a 58 OPS+). His career average for fWAR is .38. He was a -.5 fWAR. But he's a back up catcher. I'd like to think we could have found similar level of suck for league minimum from whomever was in Pawtucket, but maybe that's unreasonable.
Duran - same as Dalbec, but he sucked his first year and continued to suck. Still a prospect, so I get having given him time. Hope we don't make the same mistake this year.
Refsnyder - was a career 86 OPS+ and he put up a 143 OPS+. He was excellent last year. (I expect his 2023 to look a lot more like his 6 year career and a lot less like his 2022; we'll see).
So the "plan" going into the season was to rely on two outfielders whom should have been expected to be below average offensively. A question mark at 1b. A bench of always injured player, terrible player, question mark and back up catcher. A rotation of should be good but is coming off TJS, should be below average (Pivetta), should be expected to miss around 8 starts (Eovaldi and Wacha) and should be expected to miss 9 starts (Hill).
To be fair, it was a similar plan (I thought it was terrible) going into 2021 and they made the ALCS - all the credit Bloom for hitting and I was totally wrong It was a similar plan for 2022 (I thought it was terrible) and Bloom missed across the board. I think it's a similar (and terrible) plan going into 2023 and we'll see which way it ends up 50/50 chance, based on Bloom's two full seasons of data.
*Yes, it's "not even Christmas" and maybe Bloom trades for Sandy Alcantara, Woodrfuff, Adames and Yelich between now and the start of the season. I think it's far more likely we sign "SegurAndrus" to be a starting middle infielder, along with "Dylan Bundy" and "Zach Davies" style rotation depth - and I think the team will be somewhere between 70 - 80 wins.