It’s almost a four way negotiation. Andrew Miller’s issues are different than Scherzers. Miller and the vets need the minimum pulled up so that the cost of some minor leaguer is closer to his cost. Scherzer wants a higher cap. The “league average “ vets are the ones that have been taking the hit, hence the big difference between the average and median salary
The Mainboard MLB Lockout Thread
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About the pitchers ramping up discussion, Adler is the Yankee beat writer for The Athletic:
View: https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1496230209464512524?s=20&t=Y4AwgQR2AV9wTxj1JJerXg
View: https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1496230209464512524?s=20&t=Y4AwgQR2AV9wTxj1JJerXg
Sounds about right, in 95 there was less than four weeks between the end of the strike and opening day; Sox starters had 65, 68, 86, and 63 pitchers the first turn.
Hope it stays quiet TBH... gotta believe the absence of distractions helps both sides stay on-task.
How will a team like the Rays adjust? ...
Seriously, it's probably similar to what we saw at the (long belated) start of the 2020 season, which was a 3 week "spring training" of intrasquad games, although this article also goes into depth about the 1995 Spring Training: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-lockout-remembering-baseballs-last-delayed-spring-training-when-replacement-players-were-used-in-1995/
For context, when after the first roughly month in 2020 starters were averaging less than 5 IP per start: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-workloads-have-been-significantly-reduced-in-2020/
And of course (as noted in the FanGraphs article) this is all happening in the context of the larger trend in which "openers" and "bulk" guys and "bullpen games" have become standard practice.
To tease the openers out of the equation, you could compare the innings pitched per start for the top 25 or 50 starters in innings pitched in a season. I do not have that ability, but presumably Fangraphs could easily do it with their database. Then you can see how much earlier the best starters are getting removed from games on average.
3 more days/games postponed. Surprised it's not 7 more.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nbcsports/mlb-lockout-league-cancels-more-spring-training-games/2769707/
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nbcsports/mlb-lockout-league-cancels-more-spring-training-games/2769707/
There seems to be some reason for optimism.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33371407/commissioner-rob-manfred-joins-talks-mlb-locked-players-meet-5th-straight-day
"That said, one source described Friday's talks as having a "better vibe" than the previous day, while expressing optimism that that, coupled with the lottery progress, could lead to some long-awaited momentum toward getting a deal done."
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33371407/commissioner-rob-manfred-joins-talks-mlb-locked-players-meet-5th-straight-day
"That said, one source described Friday's talks as having a "better vibe" than the previous day, while expressing optimism that that, coupled with the lottery progress, could lead to some long-awaited momentum toward getting a deal done."
These two tweets from Passan seem contradictory.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1497683322675286018
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1497683322675286018
Just to note it, there’s few dumber ways to measure negotiation than “how far did someone move from first offer” since that incentivizes ridiculous asks in the first place.
So, as leaks from both sides focus on who did what I’d encourage people to be better than that and try to figure out what is a realistic yessable deal for each, not get caught up in bad negotiation practice around “who moved how much from initial positions” since there’s no inherent legitimacy to either side’s initial offer——in general, or in this specific case based on everything I’ve seen/read.
I suspect both sides want to get to a deal and are threatening/leaking their willingness to go to their alternatives (e.g. walk away) in order to extract the final set of concessions to get this done. But we’ll see—-both these parties have a history of somewhat irrational action too
So, as leaks from both sides focus on who did what I’d encourage people to be better than that and try to figure out what is a realistic yessable deal for each, not get caught up in bad negotiation practice around “who moved how much from initial positions” since there’s no inherent legitimacy to either side’s initial offer——in general, or in this specific case based on everything I’ve seen/read.
I suspect both sides want to get to a deal and are threatening/leaking their willingness to go to their alternatives (e.g. walk away) in order to extract the final set of concessions to get this done. But we’ll see—-both these parties have a history of somewhat irrational action too
While this is true, I think we can also look at who is making meaningful concessions and who doesn’t appear to be bargaining in good faith with the he goal of reaching an agreement and starting the season on time.
But after months of "negotiation," owners are still offering players a deal that's worse than the one they just played under -- despite the sport's revenue spiking. That's truly a ridiculous ask.
Although I recall that most of the pitching staff broke down in May to the point that they had to get a scrub knuckleballer off the junk pile and start him ASAP and then again on two days rest.
Yeah, the rotation to start the season was Sele, Cormier, Hanson, and Frankie Rodriguez; Clemens wasn’t ready until Jun. Sele and Hanson were fine to start; Rodriguez terrible, and they basically used a mishmash of Cormier, Eshelman, and Zane Smith until Wake was signed. But then Sele was lost for the season after six starts with a sore shoulder. And was never the same for the Sox. So yeah…a four man rotation after a three week spring training was probably not a great idea.
Am I wrong to interpret those two tweets as Boras thinking he's on the inside and then someone on the inside saying "the hell he is"?
That was my first thought ... Boras trying to be a power behind the scenes by leaking his ideas on how to solve things to his toady
surely this just means both sides have moderates and headliners who are each leaking doesn’t it?
I just assumed it meant Heyman was capable of carrying water for mor than 1 person…
That would be a pretty weird position for Boras to stake out for the players' side, in my view.
The last thing Boras wants is for the players to compromise and offer a merely modest bump in the CBT threshold. Boras should want the top six or seven markets to each be able to afford another $30m player. I might think trading modest CBT growth for a bigger bump in early-career compensation is a reasonable move by the union, but Scott "Agent to the Stars" Boras likely disagrees.
The last thing Boras wants is for the players to compromise and offer a merely modest bump in the CBT threshold. Boras should want the top six or seven markets to each be able to afford another $30m player. I might think trading modest CBT growth for a bigger bump in early-career compensation is a reasonable move by the union, but Scott "Agent to the Stars" Boras likely disagrees.
Regardless what happens tomorrow, this is gonna be a mess. There’s still rosters that need to be finalized, arbitration hearings need to be held, I’m assuming that they’ll cancel the Rule 5 draft. I’m getting 2019 Red Sox flashbacks
I get that they have to run a business and all that….but given what the country has gone through with the pandemic, and now seeing a war erupt with the potential to become who knows what….it just seems extraordinarily tone deaf for a deal to not get done here. Maybe I’m linking things together that don’t have anything to do with each other, but I don’t think the country / world really has the patience for a long, drawn out labor fight in a sport that many don’t care all that much about anymore to Evin with.
Everyone is going to lose; and many fans just won’t come back. Yeah, that’s what we always say…but I think baseball may not be reading the room very well this time.
Just get a deal done.
Everyone is going to lose; and many fans just won’t come back. Yeah, that’s what we always say…but I think baseball may not be reading the room very well this time.
Just get a deal done.
On the other hand, virtually nobody is paying attention to the lockout right now and March Madness is about to kick off.
The owners have the least to lose by sacrificing rainy crappy low attendance April games. Just playing devil's advocate here.
And May is just as bad league-wide (NBA/NHL playoffs, people moving, elementary school still going on, no vacation) and worse in Boston. (Lack of Pats Day weekend)
I've heard from a friend at the PA that told me the daily negotiations are just PR. The owners haven't budged, and the players have the impression that that the owners will refuse to negotiate in good faith until they start missing a bunch of games.
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More fan-friendly brilliance by MLB, waiting until today to announce this. I canceled last night, expecting to be billed today as scheduled. I'm sure many others did the same and surely some won't be back.
View: https://twitter.com/MLBTV/status/1498361611760848904?t=_4qqP47jGUEhgVddhapdjg&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/MLBTV/status/1498361611760848904?t=_4qqP47jGUEhgVddhapdjg&s=19
Maybe. But if they think fans will come crawling back, I think they may be sorely mistaken. It’s not 1995 any more. There are a myriad of alternative entertainment options; and a lot of people who decide to cut the cord in April and cancel NESN or whatever probably aren’t gonna re-up if they are back in June. I thought baseball gained a lot of momentum last season; a ton of young talent and exciting stars emerged; to follow it up with this unforced error is a shame.
But fans won't be lost if they play 145 games instead of 162. Fans will be lost if we miss a summer of baseball. Don't forget that as soon as the lockout ends, the offseason concludes. The offseason will drum up a good amount of attention with a handful of major names still on the board and some important teams not having made any moves yet.
There's a line somewhere that is undefined but a couple weeks of missed baseball probably won't mean anything.
I heard one guy on the radio opine that baseball has already lost all but the hard core fans, who will stick with baseball no matter what happens. Not saying he's correct but it will be interesting to see if he's correct at all.
I've kind of wondered what the owners and players talk about all day. I mean the differences are fairly well defined and from what I understand, if the two sides wanted to compromise, it would be fairly easy to split the difference and come out with something that is fairly close to the current CBA.
I mean is there anything left to say about Super 2 and pre-arb bonus pools and the CBA that hasn't been said already?
ll.
I agree with your first point. Neither side loses enough through the end of May to make it meaningfully onerous. Yes, 2 months gone costs a top earner more than $10M, but he still makes over $20M so it's not hard to worry about them sending their kids to public school.
I think there will be some hullabaloo when the season doesn't open on 3/31, but then it will go to the back burner until the next milestone, which is likely the All-Star game. By that point, both sides would be out around 50% of their earnings and there will be nothing on the sports landscape to occupy the collective consciousness besides (the lack of) baseball.
For every sports lockout/strike I always hear about how it will cause a "lost generation" of fans. I've always been rather dubious of that claim... until now. I grew up in Mass and moved to the Seattle area in 1995. The vast majority of the days in the spring and summer have the Red Sox playing on our TV from 4-8pm. Last year my 6 year old son started playing baseball. He absolutely LOVED it. We'd watch games together and he'd ask questions about everything. We'd play catch in the living room and he'd act out everything he saw on TV.
And then the season ended and the games were no longer on TV. His interest in baseball dropped to almost nothing. His interest went right back to Fortnite, iPad and football (Patriots) and hockey (Bruins). As the new season is starting up again it's been a real struggle to get him interested again - especially since there are no games on TV.
So, yeah, I can definitely see how a lost season can lead to a "lost generation" of fans.
And then the season ended and the games were no longer on TV. His interest in baseball dropped to almost nothing. His interest went right back to Fortnite, iPad and football (Patriots) and hockey (Bruins). As the new season is starting up again it's been a real struggle to get him interested again - especially since there are no games on TV.
So, yeah, I can definitely see how a lost season can lead to a "lost generation" of fans.
Players are tweeting stuff like this all over the place.
View: https://twitter.com/JoeyGallo24/status/1498411293983842310?s=20&t=lg5I6XccaXPqI98QJV0vPA
View: https://twitter.com/JoeyGallo24/status/1498411293983842310?s=20&t=lg5I6XccaXPqI98QJV0vPA
I stopped watching hockey after the strike/lockout in 1994(?) and never watched regularly again. It happens.
For me, it was the 2004-05 lockout. And the 1998-99 NBA lockout.
My love of baseball is far stronger, but a year without baseball may put it to the test.
MLB trying to attach super expanded postseason to better min salary / pre-arb pool
View: https://twitter.com/evandrellich/status/1498472526942515206?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/evandrellich/status/1498472526942515206?s=21
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