The Iggy-Peavy Trade Regurgitated

[smastroyin]

If people start regretting Montas I guess I'm just going to have to ask if you punch yourself in the nuts for not buying scratch tickets every time you see a sign on a door about a local winner.
 
The point is, prospects mostly fail.  This has to be priced into their value.  You can bitch and moan about your team's ability to identify who is "real" and who is not, but there is not actually a ton of evidence that any teams are better at picking out prospects consistently.  Ex post analysis of these trades is fine but when it turns into a whine fest it's annoying and ignores the practical realities of how the business of baseball is conducted.  I'm not saying Montana Fan did this in posting the article.  I am saying the FSB seems to be making this his modus operandi.

 

[mdipalma78]

Gagne wasn't poor prior to the trade (2.16 ERA; 16 of 17 save attempts season to date with the Rangers).  His numbers were trending downward (K/9, WHIP), but it wasn't like they were picking up a washed up pitcher.  That said, he proceeded to douse himself in gasoline and light a match as soon as he put on a Red Sox uniform and quickly became a washed up pitcher.  Perhaps he stopped juicing (which the Red Sox were allegedly aware of).

I know I may be reaching, but I've often told people that acquiring Gagne made a significant contribution to winning the WS in 2007. Okajima was being used heavily and the acquisition of Gagne was supposed to help lighten Oki's workload so that he could hold up for a post-season run. They got Gagne, he sucked, but Tito kept saying "We need him..." and running him out there. Every outing that Gagne sucked was less opportunity to use Oki. Okajima's numbers got worse as the season wore on, but he was generally effective in the post-season. There's no way to really tell, but I have to wonder if the absence of Gagne would've worn down Okajima (and, possibly, Delcarmen) to the extent that the post-season plays out differently.

 

[tims4wins]

The two week break they gave Oki in late September was a huge factor in his playoff pitching IMO, but hard to attribute that to Gagne. The Sox essentially shut Oki down once they wrapped up a playoff spot.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Gagne was odd. His results were bad, but he had a 3.03 FIP vs. his 6.75 ERA. 
 
They also got a supplemental first for him, which they used in a package for Victor Martinez a year later, who eventually yielded the picks that were Matt Barnes and Henry Owens. It could have been a lot worse.

 

[HillysLastWalk]

 
Nice work on Montas, thanks!  He obviously fell under the radar in this thread.

 
What is your objective in this thread?
 
My impression is that you want to prove (as you haven't conceded many points -- and I mean many, many, many points people have made) one or all of:
 
a. The Red Sox make terrible player evaluations
b. Jake Peavy was meaningless and they would have won the World Series without him.
 
thanks!

 

[chrisfont9]

Gagne was odd. His results were bad, but he had a 3.03 FIP vs. his 6.75 ERA. 
 
They also got a supplemental first for him, which they used in a package for Victor Martinez a year later, who eventually yielded the picks that were Matt Barnes and Henry Owens. It could have been a lot worse.

And to reiterate, they traded Kason Gabbard and Engel Beltre for him. In other words, they got this return for free. Sure, a free car that breaks down on you is disappointing, but it was free. My point isn't to laud the Sox for the trade and for letting go of a top prospect for a bad pitcher, but for maybe taking the view that even "hot" teenage prospects rarely work out, and it was worth a roll of the dice. [Note to self: Beltre is still only 23.]

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

And to reiterate, they traded Kason Gabbard and Engel Beltre for him. In other words, they got this return for free. Sure, a free car that breaks down on you is disappointing, but it was free. My point isn't to laud the Sox for the trade and for letting go of a top prospect for a bad pitcher, but for maybe taking the view that even "hot" teenage prospects rarely work out, and it was worth a roll of the dice. [Note to self: Beltre is still only 23.]

 
And Gabbard was 25 at the time of the trade, wasn't that great in 2007 before the trade (1.34 K//BB ratio, much higher FIP than ERA), stunk when he got to Texas in 2007, stunk for them again in 2008, got hurt, and then was quickly out of baseball. Even "sure" things like 25 year old starting pitchers aren't guaranteed to do anything.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

And to reiterate, they traded Kason Gabbard and Engel Beltre for him. In other words, they got this return for free. Sure, a free car that breaks down on you is disappointing, but it was free. My point isn't to laud the Sox for the trade and for letting go of a top prospect for a bad pitcher, but for maybe taking the view that even "hot" teenage prospects rarely work out, and it was worth a roll of the dice. [Note to self: Beltre is still only 23.]

 
And also David Murphy, who put up a .275/.337/.435 line over six seasons and almost 3000 PA for the Rangers while costing them about $13MM over six seasons.  
 
He may have ended up only a MLB platoon outfielder, but he ended up being significantly more valuable than half a season of Gagne.

 

[Rasputin]

 
And also David Murphy, who put up a .275/.337/.435 line over six seasons and almost 3000 PA for the Rangers while costing them about $13MM over six seasons.  
 
He may have ended up only a MLB platoon outfielder, but he ended up being significantly more valuable than half a season of Gagne.

 
In fairness, a quarter of a season of Gagne would have been more valuable than a half a season of Gagne.

 

[BUConvict]

Montas was part of this trade as well.
 
 
http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/white-sox-prospect-frankie-montas-lights-radar-gun-futures-game

 
Interesting that you left out the next sentence:
 
"While Montas allowed three earned runs and four hits in two-thirds of an inning, he more than enjoyed himself a year after a knee injury forced him to miss the 2014 Futures Game."
 
This thread is becoming embarrassing. 

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

 
 
 
This thread is becoming embarrassing. 

 
I'm afraid this is the most profound post in this thread so far.  I made myself ill after reading this thread.  I know this post isn't contributing anything, but have any of the other posts?

 

[Reverend]

Some of you seem to be beginning to discern the point of this thread.

 

[nighthob]

I think he has more trade value now than in 2013.  Today, I think the Tigers could get something more valuable than an older league average starter for Iglesias.  If that is the case, it would suggest that the Red Sox sold low, not at peak value.

Except that in Boston he would have ben sitting on the bench watching Bogaerts play.

 

[AB in DC]

It seems undeniable -- the Red Sox definitely did not "sell high" on Iglesias.  If anything they may have undervalued him.
 
 
That still doesn't make the Peavy trade a bad deal, of course.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Whoosh!
 
Fuck it.