So here's the situation:
Pats have 2 games left: at Bal, vs Buf
Miami has 2 games left: at Buf, vs NYJ
Pats up 2 games, but it's really "less" than that because if NE loses the next two and Miami wins the next two, Miami wins on tiebreakers.
Now, I have to assume Miami will win both of those games. They're better than either team and they're playing well. That means the Pats have to win one of two to clinch the division. Obviously they're capable of doing that, but I think, like pretty much everyone else here, that next week's game is going to be extremely difficult to win. So let's say they lose. That means that week 17 the Pats are essentially playing a playoff game, at home vs. Buffalo.
That's a game they SHOULD win, but my goodness, we went from looking at a #1 seed to potentially not even going to the playoffs in the blink of an eye here. Now, a few things still need to happen for Miami, but it's all entirely conceivable. I hate the thought of the Pats NEEDING to win at home vs. Buffalo in order to make the playoffs.
**Baltimore is 7-6, with three games left: at Det, vs NE, at Cin. That's three very tough games. I've already penciled in a win for them over NE, and if NE goes 0-2 they finish at 10-6. Baltimore needs, then, to win all three remaining games in order to get to 10-6. That's a pretty tall order, so obviously things are still looking good for the Patriots to make the playoffs.