The Game Ball Thread: Wk.10 vs Ravens

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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There was no need to decline the penalty. The Ravens had used their last timeout prior to the penalty. The clock was going to run from 240 down to the 2 minute warning. The Pats might as well take the free 5 yards. In this case, there was no advantage to declining the penalty. Could the college ref that occasionally pops in here please confirm but that is my understanding. I think they changed the rules after the Pats Titans playoff game last year.
My game balls: Meyers, Jackson, offensive line as a whole.
The Ravens had a time out left.
 

tonyandpals

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gameball: mother nature's timing

There was no need to decline the penalty. The Ravens had used their last timeout prior to the penalty. The clock was going to run from 240 down to the 2 minute warning. The Pats might as well take the free 5 yards. In this case, there was no advantage to declining the penalty. Could the college ref that occasionally pops in here please confirm but that is my understanding. I think they changed the rules after the Pats Titans playoff game last year.
My game balls: Meyers, Jackson, offensive line as a whole.
If you look at it from the perspective of not converting another first down after the penalty, then the pats go:
1st down (final time out at 2:35) 2nd down takes it to the 2 minute warning, 3rd down, 4th down punt, Ravens take over 1:05.

If you decline and play out the 2nd and two, you go one of the following:
2nd down don't convert (time out at 2:35), 3rd down don't convert (take it to 2 minute warning), punt and Ravens start with about 1:50
2nd down covert (time out 2:35 ish), 1st down (take it to 2 minute warning) , 2nd down (take it to 1:15ish), 3rd down (take it to :30ish), punt leaves Ravens :20 or so.
2nd down don't convert (time out 2:35ish), 3rd down convert (take to 2 min warning), 1st down knee (take to 1:20ish), 2nd down knee (take to :40ish), 3rd down knee (game)

So I'd say Harbaugh maximized his risk reward on that and the offside play was intentional and a good call. Declining it wouldn't have been a bad idea as you are more likely to convert 2nd or 3rd and two in those conditions over 1st and 10.
 

BaseballJones

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Summary:

vs Mia - W, 21-11 - Good win over what has turned out to be a good team
at Sea - L, 35-30 - Came within a yard of beating one of the best teams in the NFC on the road
vs LV - W, 36-20 - Dominating win over a team that is now 6-3
at KC - L, 26-10 - Flew out 3 hours before game time, Covid took Cam away, played with Hoyer, and were in the game until midway in the 4th
vs Den - L, 18-12 - 2 practices in 2 weeks, Cam probably still feeling it
vs SF - L, 33-6 - Got utterly dominated in all phases of the game
at Buf - L, 24-21 - Were driving for the win (or at least a tie to go to OT) before Cam fumbled inside the 15 yard line against a very good team
at NYJ - W, 30-27 - Too close against a bad bad team but still managed the comeback win
vs Bal - W, 23-17 - Outstanding performance against one of the best teams in the AFC

So against the best teams on their schedule (Mia, Sea, LV, KC, Buf, Bal), they're 3-3, and realistically could easily be 5-1.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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gameball: mother nature's timing



If you look at it from the perspective of not converting another first down after the penalty, then the pats go:
1st down (final time out at 2:35) 2nd down takes it to the 2 minute warning, 3rd down, 4th down punt, Ravens take over 1:05.

If you decline and play out the 2nd and two, you go one of the following:
2nd down don't convert (time out at 2:35), 3rd down don't convert (take it to 2 minute warning), punt and Ravens start with about 1:50
2nd down covert (time out 2:35 ish), 1st down (take it to 2 minute warning) , 2nd down (take it to 1:15ish), 3rd down (take it to :30ish), punt leaves Ravens :20 or so.
2nd down don't convert (time out 2:35ish), 3rd down convert (take to 2 min warning), 1st down knee (take to 1:20ish), 2nd down knee (take to :40ish), 3rd down knee (game)

So I'd say Harbaugh maximized his risk reward on that and the offside play was intentional and a good call. Declining it wouldn't have been a bad idea as you are more likely to convert 2nd or 3rd and two in those conditions over 1st and 10.
Right.

Basically Harbaugh gives up an extra play for the longer distance to get the first down in sloppy conditions where he knows his opponent will be conservative.

I think this was all a bit confusing because of the picked up flag and subsequent time out and the time to the two minute warning, but you can arrange the question to effectively be the same question and make it cleaner this way:

Two minute warning. You're on offense with a six point lead. Your opponent has two time outs. Which would you rather have coming out of the two minute warning:

First and ten or second and two?

If you change it to second and inches it becomes even easier to see why it's likely that Harbaugh probably called for the offside on purpose and why declining would have been defensible.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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One more game ball -- the zebras. Even the staunchest Pats fan has to admit NE got a pretty good whistle, specifically a couple of generous spots.
 

BigJimEd

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If they decline it Baltimore can easily just get penalized again.

I think you could make a case either way. Based on the last couple drives and the weather, I was fine from a Patriots perspective to get the 40 seconds off the clock.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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This game seals it. I wanted a draft pick, but top 5ish isn't in our sights anymore. I guess there's only one thing left to do...

 

BaseballJones

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JC Jackson is having the worst season of his 3-year pro career.

2018: 45 targets, 22 completions, 48.9% completion, 256 yds, 11.6 yds/comp, 5.7 yds/target, 0 td, 3 int, 38.8 passer rating
2019: 62 targets, 33 completions, 53.2% completion, 316 yds, 9.6 yds/comp, 5.1 yds/target, 0 td, 5 int, 34.1 passer rating
2020: 37 targets, 22 completions, 59.5% completion, 349 yds, 15.9 yds/comp, 9.4 yds/target, 3 td, 6 int, 78.4 passer rating

For the guy's career, he's allowed 77 completions in 144 attempts (53.5%), for 921 yards (6.4 yds/att), 3 td, and 14 int for a 40.7 passer rating. Absolutely phenomenal. So I kind of kid when I say he's having the worst year of his career (though that's true), because this "worst" year still has produced a sub 60% completion rate, and 6 interceptions in a mere 37 targets.
 

Saints Rest

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JC Jackson is having the worst season of his 3-year pro career.

2018: 45 targets, 22 completions, 48.9% completion, 256 yds, 11.6 yds/comp, 5.7 yds/target, 0 td, 3 int, 38.8 passer rating
2019: 62 targets, 33 completions, 53.2% completion, 316 yds, 9.6 yds/comp, 5.1 yds/target, 0 td, 5 int, 34.1 passer rating
2020: 37 targets, 22 completions, 59.5% completion, 349 yds, 15.9 yds/comp, 9.4 yds/target, 3 td, 6 int, 78.4 passer rating

For the guy's career, he's allowed 77 completions in 144 attempts (53.5%), for 921 yards (6.4 yds/att), 3 td, and 14 int for a 40.7 passer rating. Absolutely phenomenal. So I kind of kid when I say he's having the worst year of his career (though that's true), because this "worst" year still has produced a sub 60% completion rate, and 6 interceptions in a mere 37 targets.
14 INTs vs 77 receptions. That's a 2:11 ratio. He has intercepted almost 10% of the balls thrown his way (9.7%). I can't imagine there have been many DB's better than that over a legitimate sample size (say 100 targets).
 

DJnVa

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He has 5 straight games with an INT--that's a Patriots record. NFL record is 8.
 

BigSoxFan

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He has 5 straight games with an INT--that's a Patriots record. NFL record is 8.
And these aren't cheapie INTs either. He's having to make some really incredible plays out there. Dude needs to get paid and is an RFA soon. Rosenhaus client. I don't see how Gilmore isn't traded before the draft. They can't afford both of them.
 

BaseballJones

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For comparison's sake, here's Tre'Davious White's numbers. Keep in mind he's also considered to be one of the very best CBs in all of football:

36370
 

Oppo

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And these aren't cheapie INTs either. He's having to make some really incredible plays out there. Dude needs to get paid and is an RFA soon. Rosenhaus client. I don't see how Gilmore isn't traded before the draft. They can't afford both of them.
Move him to WR!
 

scottyno

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Sounds like they had him playing off-the-ball a lot more, even inside linebacker rather than trying to set the edge. He mentioned he hadn't played that much off-the-ball since HS so some additional practice time to get oriented was probably critical.
Yeah, I charted the game in postgame, essentially in any possible running downs he played off ball, on passing downs he typically lined up in his usual spot on the outside edge. I don't remember him being lined up in a typical linebacker spot all year until yesterday.
 

54thMA

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So it sounds like Wino had a hell of a game. With the emphasis on the running game I’m kind of surprised. To me it makes it all the more confusing why he wasn’t playing weeks 4-7 or whatever it was.
I still have no clue why he was playing so sparingly those weeks.

Made zero sense then and ever more last night; all he does is make plays and is very disruptive to what the offense is trying to do.

I'd really hate to think Belichick being torked off at him for committing the penalty in the Denver game I believe on the block he threw on the QB during an interception return being called for unnecessary roughing then arguing with him on the sideline was the reason.
 

scottyno

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JC Jackson is having the worst season of his 3-year pro career.

2018: 45 targets, 22 completions, 48.9% completion, 256 yds, 11.6 yds/comp, 5.7 yds/target, 0 td, 3 int, 38.8 passer rating
2019: 62 targets, 33 completions, 53.2% completion, 316 yds, 9.6 yds/comp, 5.1 yds/target, 0 td, 5 int, 34.1 passer rating
2020: 37 targets, 22 completions, 59.5% completion, 349 yds, 15.9 yds/comp, 9.4 yds/target, 3 td, 6 int, 78.4 passer rating

For the guy's career, he's allowed 77 completions in 144 attempts (53.5%), for 921 yards (6.4 yds/att), 3 td, and 14 int for a 40.7 passer rating. Absolutely phenomenal. So I kind of kid when I say he's having the worst year of his career (though that's true), because this "worst" year still has produced a sub 60% completion rate, and 6 interceptions in a mere 37 targets.
Also matching up against much better competition now this year, between Gilmore missing time and Jmac being terrible
 

kenneycb

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Man, was this a refreshing sight or what? Someone tweeted that it's an Alabama RB trait. Also:

A running back who can turn a corner

A running back who always falls forward

A running back who can shift into second gear in open space
Browns / Colts fans would like a word why you re: Trent Richardson.