The future of Koji Uehara

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

My point is that the right to make an QO has no value as it is an overpay. Uehara controls the situation as he can either give the Sox a discount or he can pusue market value somewhere else at around 2/20.

Japanese culture values loyalty so he may very well accept a discount.

That is incorrect. As we saw with Jiménez and Drew (etc.), QOs have value and in cases where the player is going to get something around the QO, it may have great value in depressing other team's interest. If the Sox give a QO, I suspect no other team is going to sign Koji for 2/$20 if they have to give up a first-round draft pick.

I find it odd we are having these discussion about team options and the value of QOs particularly after what the Sox have been through in the past year.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

If Uehara rejects a QO he could be next year's Drew. Having to give up a pick will significantly reduce what he could get for a 2-year deal. In other words, there is no way he will refuse a QO.

 

[glennhoffmania]

And to answer your question - the QO gets the Sox a draft pick. If the Sox are not going to offer Koji the QO - which is their right - they should have traded him at the deadline because at least they could have picked up an asset or two for him. Not offering the QO AND not trading him is the worst of all worlds I suspect.

 
I'd say that him accepting the QO and then blowing out his shoulder in spring training would be the worst of all worlds.  I don't think it's a given they'll extend a QO.  By not trading him they can talk to him for the next three months about an extension.  I don't think that paying him $15m for one year is the worst use of resources but it certainly isn't the most efficient either. 
 
Soriano got 2/28 with an option last year.  Would it make more sense to give Koji 15m or offer Robertson something like 3/36?
 
Also the discussion on the value of options is interesting.  I've had this debate multiple times with Jon Abbey, who claims that opt outs are good for the teams.  I don't understand the line of thinking that says that team options benefit the player or player options benefit the team, for all of the reasons you stated.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

Opt out, which is a right to terminate the contract, is a unilateral right that only benefits the player. If a current contract has become below market the player will use it as leverage to negotiate a new one and if it is the opposite it will not be exercised.

Both Sabathia and A-Rod used their rights to obtain extensions at increased AAV. I don't know if Vernon Wells had an OOC in his contract but obviously he would not have exercised it as he would have lost a huge amount of money.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

.

Japanese culture values loyalty so he may very well accept a discount.

Then I guess I don't see why Ichiro asked the M's to send him to NY (or why Shigetoshi Hasagawa left the Angels as a free agent or why Daisuke Matsuzaka asked to be posted).

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

[QUOTE="Hriniak]Then I guess I don't see why Ichiro asked the M's to send him to NY (or why Shigetoshi Hasagawa left the Angels as a free agent or why Daisuke Matsuzaka asked to be posted).
[/QUOTE]
I didn' say it would be a guarantee, but I believe a Japanese player is more likely to give a discount. In Japan workers will stay with the same company for their entire careers

 

[MrNewEngland]

The only place I have seen it suggested that he will get a QO is on this board (and I am including the two links from The Gray Eagle in that statement).  

 

[gammoseditor]

People seem to have the Sox negotiating against themselves. Nathan's contract is a perfect comp and supports a market value of 2/20. The QO makes no sense as the Sox would be overpaying and if he has another great year they will be in the same situation a year from now.

If the Sox make a competitive offer I don't see any reason any reason why Uehara would reject it.

 
Koji has been far more consistent than Nathan prior to Nathan signing his deal.  If Koji think his price is 2/25 I think it's reasonable the Red Sox would rather pay him 1/15 and take the risk away of decline in year 2.  I also think the FA class after 2015 is looking much better than the class coming up.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Uehara has already signed a 1 year deal with an option with the Sox, not sure why he wouldn't again. I guess making it vesting instead of club would be the compromise. Offering the QO likely only succeeds in guaranteeing they pay him more than market value, IMO. agree to disagree.

Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but if we are talking about the value of a team option, not sure what there is to disagree about. In this case, facts are facts. At any rate, I'll drop it.

 

[Tharkin]

There is no way there wasn't a robust market for Koji at the deadline, right? Given that and the fact that we were selling, is there any reason not to trade him other than maintaining the right to offer a QO? If not, doesn't that mean that the Sox valued that right even more than whatever return they could have gotten? Assuming there is a plan in place, the signs point to a QO as far as I can tell. And in a rare moment of the heart overruling the brain, I wouldn't even care if it was an overpay. I was shocked to see how (relatively) little Koji has been paid. Buy that man a new pair of shoes.

As an aside, I wanted to mention that I love reading this thread. An either/or issue with smart posters making good points on either side. I find myself reading one post and saying "yeah!" then reading the next post, which completely rebuts the other, and saying "Yeah!" For a guy who is interested in, but still learning, the business side of the game, it's a great read.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'd say that him accepting the QO and then blowing out his shoulder in spring training would be the worst of all worlds.  I don't think it's a given they'll extend a QO.  By not trading him they can talk to him for the next three months about an extension.  I don't think that paying him $15m for one year is the worst use of resources but it certainly isn't the most efficient either. 
 
Soriano got 2/28 with an option last year.  Would it make more sense to give Koji 15m or offer Robertson something like 3/36?
 
Also the discussion on the value of options is interesting.  I've had this debate multiple times with Jon Abbey, who claims that opt outs are good for the teams.  I don't understand the line of thinking that says that team options benefit the player or player options benefit the team, for all of the reasons you stated.

First, I didn't mean "worst of all worlds" from a win-loss perspective; I meant in terms of organizational strategy. If the Red Sox had any doubt in their mind about the QO, and given what they got for Miller, unless I am completely misreading the market for him, they could have gotten real assets in trading Koji and they should have done that IF they weren't going to offer the QO. Strategically speaking, it makes no sense not to trade him and then let him walk without compensation.

As for your discussion with Jon Abbey, I have a fuzzy recollection about it, and I think JA's position is that opt-outs help teams because every so often, players do what Dwayne Wade do - misread the market and end up with worse contracts than they had. However, from a negotiating standpoint, parties consider anything in control of one side to be of value to that side. In other words, adding a player opt-out is considered a concession on the part of the team, not the player.

 

[Tharkin]

Yeah!

Edit: that was interesting and thought provoking, thanks.

Edit again: you said "you don't make a trade just to make a trade" but in this specific situation with Koji, why wouldn't you unless not making the trade increases the chances you bring him back? If you're not going to make a QO but still want to either not sign him or try to sign him as a free agent, wouldn't you trade him for the best return, whatever it happened to be? Even if it didn't measure up to "closer at the deadline" expectations, something is better than nothing.

 

[glennhoffmania]

There is no way there wasn't a robust market for Koji at the deadline, right? Given that and the fact that we were selling, is there any reason not to trade him other than maintaining the right to offer a QO? If not, doesn't that mean that the Sox valued that right even more than whatever return they could have gotten? Assuming there is a plan in place, the signs point to a QO as far as I can tell. And in a rare moment of the heart overruling the brain, I wouldn't even care if it was an overpay. I was shocked to see how (relatively) little Koji has been paid. Buy that man a new pair of shoes.

As an aside, I wanted to mention that I love reading this thread. An either/or issue with smart posters making good points on either side. I find myself reading one post and saying "yeah!" then reading the next post, which completely rebuts the other, and saying "Yeah!" For a guy who is interested in, but still learning, the business side of the game, it's a great read.

I can't imagine a world where Boston wasn't offered something for Koji that wasn't better than a comp pick. I have no idea why they didn't trade him but I really doubt it was because of the QO. Between the odds of him accepting the offer and the odds that the best trade option was worse than a comp pick, there has to be another explanation.

 

[Tharkin]

I can't imagine a world where Boston wasn't offered something for Koji that wasn't better than a comp pick. I have no idea why they didn't trade him but I really doubt it was because of the QO. Between the odds of him accepting the offer and the odds that the best trade option was worse than a comp pick, there has to be another explanation.

What would that be though? Some sort of agreement between Koji and the FO to let him test the FA market without the QO penalty?

 

[glennhoffmania]

What would that be though? Some sort of agreement between Koji and the FO to let him test the FA market without the QO penalty?

No clue. But I also was a little surprised that they didn't offer one to Salty and that they traded Lester. So clearly Ben is operating on a whole other level.

 

[Tharkin]

 
The simple explanation is they either saw reason to keep him for the remainder of the season or they didn't get an offer they saw worthy. I don't think the market was what people are assuming. Because he is a great closer doesn't mean that teams were lining up to acquire him. 

If the Sox aren't going to offer a QO and aren't worried about another team doing it either, wouldn't whatever the best offer was be worthy, just because something is better than nothing? Or are you thinking the best offer was lower than the PR and butts-in-seats factor for the last couple of months of the season?

I think, though, that if the Sox don't offer him a QO you must be right that the market just wasn't there. Right? QO means the Sox valued him over a decent market, no QO means there wasn't much of a market?

 

[Rasputin]

 
Again, what value is there in retaining for the sole purpose of offering him the QO? If they had traded him and offered him $15M for next year, he would sign with the Sox at the exact same % probability that he would accept the QO. And if they offered it, his market would be zero elsewhere. The simple explanation is they either saw reason to keep him for the remainder of the season or they didn't get an offer they saw worthy. I don't think the market was what people are assuming. Because he is a great closer doesn't mean that teams were lining up to acquire him. 

 
If they keep him, they can pretty much guarantee he comes back. If they trade him they can't. It's really just that simple.You want to say that was a bad decision, you've got some grist for your mill there.
 
Also, I do not, for the slightest shred of a second, think that there were no decent offers on him.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Again, what value is there in retaining for the sole purpose of offering him the QO? If they had traded him and offered him $15M for next year, he would sign with the Sox at the exact same % probability that he would accept the QO. And if they offered it, his market would be zero elsewhere. The simple explanation is they either saw reason to keep him for the remainder of the season or they didn't get an offer they saw worthy. I don't think the market was what people are assuming. Because he is a great closer doesn't mean that teams were lining up to acquire him.

Without the QO, some team could well offer Koji 2/$20 and he'd probably take that over 1/$15M. I don't understand why you don't see any value in that.

Maybe I am hallucinating but I thought I read something where Ben implied or stated that he wanted Koji in place as a closer next year. I'll see if I can find.

I really think the simplest explanation is that the Sox believe that they are going to contend in 2015 and want/need Koji to be the closer and they are willing to overpay him for one year but unwilling to make a two-year guaranteed money commitment. They have money to burn on the FA market and I suspect that their plan is to deploy a lot of the money.
 
Edit:  macadam wrote a similar article here:  http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-have-no-intentions-trading-Uehara.  Also, there was a report from Gammons that another GM told him that he felt that Cherington had no intention of trading Koji and wanted him to close in 2015.

 

[syoo8]

No clue. But I also was a little surprised that they didn't offer one to Salty and that they traded Lester. So clearly Ben is operating on a whole other level.

 
Ben said in an interview that they had only limited resources and had to plan for the contingency (however remote) that all of the QOs were accepted.  Therefore, he made the decision that Salty was the one to not get the QO.
 
What I wonder about is did the FO have a plan in case something like 2014 (worst-case scenario) happened- before the season?  

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
Ben said in an interview that they had only limited resources and had to plan for the contingency (however remote) that all of the QOs were accepted.  Therefore, he made the decision that Salty was the one to not get the QO.
 
What I wonder about is did the FO have a plan in case something like 2014 (worst-case scenario) happened- before the season?  

I don't know if I buy that. There was a 100% chance that Ellsbury would reject and I'd guess about a 99% chance that Drew would too.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

Koji has been far more consistent than Nathan prior to Nathan signing his deal.  If Koji think his price is 2/25 I think it's reasonable the Red Sox would rather pay him 1/15 and take the risk away of decline in year 2.  I also think the FA class after 2015 is looking much better than the class coming up.

Not only was Koji better than Nathan last year he had one of the GOAT seasons . However, Nathan's performance this year is a reminder that paying big bucks to a 40-year old closer is extremely risky.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

And houses are cheap in Mississippi, man.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I didn' say it would be a guarantee, but I believe a Japanese player is more likely to give a discount. In Japan workers will stay with the same company for their entire careers

Workers in every country will stay with the same company for their entire careers. Please stop with the stereotypes.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Considering the year he's having I don't see your point. If a team had made a strong offer for Koji, you'd think they'd have at least put a claim in on Pap. And if someone else is willing to offer him 1/$15 next year (or even 2/$20), same thing.

I have yet to be convinced there was a decent market for "closers" this deadline.

 
It's an old quote from Pap, who has been all about the money since he got to the big leagues. (And I'm absolutely fine with that.) 
 
He was asked about taking on the risk of going year by year through his arb period instead of signing a multi-year deal as Lester and Buchholz did, and that was his reply.

 
Edit: since it's really a point more about Pap, I shouldn't have pulled the thread off on a tangent.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If a team is willing to offer 2/$20M to Koji, the QO isn't likely to be a big hinderance. That kind of deal is made by a contender who thinks Koji is the final piece they need - otherwise they're not taking the chance on the 40-41 year old seasons of a reliever at that price. As I asked I asked Ras, please make a case for a specific team that fits that scenario. Further, if he's willing to take 2/$20M from another team over 1/$15 from the Sox, then it doesn't take that much more to beat that if you really want him back. 
 
 
End of day I think it's asinine to give Koji $15M for next year and I find it hard to believe that the Sox FO thinks that is a smart move or that that was the deciding factor to them not trading him. 
 
I'm still waiting for someone to make a case for one of the contenders making a move for him or linking rumors about the "robust market" that chased him at the deadline.

 
I am not even sure what you are arguing.
 
If you are arguing that the Sox didn't trade Koji because they didn't get a decent offer for him, well that's possible.  My reading of the reports is opposite of yours, but we will never really know for sure so you could be correct.  No argument from me here but as I don't believe it's accurate, I'm not really taking that into consideration.
 
However, assuming that the Sox got a decent offer for Koji, I assume he didn't get traded because the Sox want him pitching for them next year.  And the best way to ensure that he remains pitching for them is to make a QO, as it depresses the market for him.  I completely disagree with your assertion that a team wouldn't be deterred from offering 2/$20M for him if they had a give up a draft pick.  I thought we learned that it is precisely in this dollar-range where draft picks become paramount.
 
And the QO is particularly useful if the Red Sox want to lock up Koji for two years as they will be theoretically be able to lock him up a price that is market minus the value of the draft pick compensation.
 
Along these lines, Cherington said today - http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2014/08/sox_nothing_physical_with_clay_buchholz_no_red_flags - that there was a fair amount of interest in Koji but they thought it was important to keep him.  I think it adds more evidence to the theory that the Red Sox will offer Koji a QO if they can't agree on a new contract by the QO deadline.

 

[radsoxfan]

I think it's interesting how sure some people seem to be about Koji's value, and that the QO is such a clear overpay.
 
To me, he's one of the toughest guys to project because of his recent elite performance, his age, and his injury history.  Last year, he was easily worth 15M.  This year, he is on his way to being worth 15M. Sure he is old, and you don't pay for past performance, but on a one year deal (assuming he finishes the year strong without injury) it's hard for me to see how he wouldn't command at least close to 15M. The Nathan comp is useful, but it's definitely not exact.  Koji is older, but has been much better the past year and a half than Nathan was his last 2 seasons in Texas. 
 
In my opinion, if the Red Sox think he's worth close to 15M (lets say 12M+) on a one year deal, they probably just offer the QO if they can't sign him before then.  They have the money, a short term deal minimizes the risk, they get a pick if Koji declines, and I don't think they look at 15M as much of an overpay (unlike Salty for example, who they clearly valued at less than half the price of the QO).

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

It's really not that difficult to comprehend.

A 1/$15 offer significantly depresses the market for him, with or without a QO. The QO is irrelevant if they are willing to go to that level.

I will again ask who is going to offer that much for one year of a 40 yo closer?

Your take on the reports on possible trade opportunities being not worthy of consideration are equal to my take on them choosing to keep him having anything to do with a QO. To each their own. I don't think "there was interest on him" to equal "postpone offered good pieces for him" but ymmv.

If you are arguing that a team that has the ability to use a QO is in the same negotiating position as a team that doesn't have one, that frankly makes no sense to me. Strictly from a financial POV, if the market for Koji is at least 2/$18M, by having the QO, the Red Sox should be able to sign him for market value minus the value of the draft pick compensation. So the QO should be worth money to the Red Sox.

And to your first point, it wasn't the fact that the Red Sox offered Drew a QO last year that depressed the market, it was the fact that the signing team would have had to give up a draft pick that depressed the market. So no, a random 1/$15M offer from another team will not "depress" the market for a player who seems likely to sign at 2/$20M or above.

Of course you may say that Koji's value this winter is going to be significantly less than 2/$20M. I would disagree with this - I read somewhere that Koji earned about $15M in value last year and $13M this year. I guess I should ask that if you don't think Koji is worth 2/$20M, what do you think he's worth?

Finally, just for the record, I didn't say that the reports on trades weren't "worthy of consideration." I'm just saying that my posts in this thread have been based on the assumption that there was an active market for Koji, and that assumption was based on my interpretation of the not-very-substantive reports we have. If you want me to change assumptions, we should probably have a different conversation.

 

[kelpapa]

I will again ask who is going to offer that much for one year of a 40 yo closer?

I feel like this is so obvious that I'm missing something, but why would the Yankees not be in on him? They gave Mo 3/45 at the age of 40. Granted he had more value than Koji to the Yankees, but it would still make sense.

Move Betances to the starting rotation and use Koji and Robertson as their set up guy and closer. Make a division rival worse and you aren't on the hook for many years.

 

[DavidTai]

Would it make sense if the Sox wanted to keep Koji on the team to assist with the transition of an incoming Japanese player? Or is Junichi Tazawa enough?

 

[tbrown_01923]

They are not keeping Koji to transition a Japanese pitcher.  For starters, Koji's track record is enough of a reason to keep him around. Secondly there is an awful big assumption that Koji would get along with any random Japanese import.
 
 

Would it make sense if the Sox wanted to keep Koji on the team to assist with the transition of an incoming Japanese player? Or is Junichi Tazawa enough?