The future of Koji Uehara

[MentalDisabldLst]

I'm far from the only fanboy of the Koji around these parts.  No Boston closer, not even the legendary Keith Foulke, has inspired such confidence in me as Koji's consistent greatness.  As our season has become solely an extended audition to determine what the Sox look like in 2015 and beyond, it's worth considering where the 38-year-old Uehara fits - or ought to fit - in the Red Sox' plans.
 
Let me first offer some historical data:
 
Lowest single-season FIP since 1910 (which excludes some years by Cy Young, a younger Walter Johnson, etc):
 
1.395 - Pedro Martinez, 1999
1.685 - Dwight Gooden, 1984
1.704 - Clayton Kershaw, 2014 (thus far)
1.774 - Bob Gibson, 1968
1.821 - Walter Johnson, 1916
 
In 2013, Koji Uehara pitched to a 1.62 FIP ERA.  The lowest Mariano Rivera ever got was 1.88 in 1996 and 1.90 in 2012.  Eric Gagne's Cy Young-winning year in 2003 was a 0.86 FIP, with his 15.0 K/9, but that's the only better season I can find in the modern era: Pedro's 1999 and Gagne's probably-"enhanced" 2003 campaign.
 
Lowest single-season WHIP since 1910:
 
0.7373 - Pedro Martinez, 2000
0.7803 - Walter Johnson, 1913
0.8108 - Greg Maddux, 1995
0.8242 - Clayton Kershaw, 2014 (thus far)
(Gibson 1968, Koufax 1965 follow shortly thereafter)
 
In 2013, Koji Uehara pitched to a 0.565 WHIP.  In 2012 for Texas he was at 0.639.  This year, 0.730.  Mariano Rivera's 2008 campaign was his career best for WHIP, at 0.665, but otherwise he had no season below a 0.833.  Even Gagne 2003 was a 0.692.
 
Nor is this talent something that only emerged since coming to MLB in 2009: Koji's years in Japan featured consistently low walk rates (1.2 BB/9), an 8.0 K/9 and 6.68 K/BB, the vast majority of the time as a starting pitcher.  In 2007, his only year as an NPB closer, his K rate went to 9.6 and his BB rate dropped to 0.6, with an ERA of 1.74.  Yeah, it was Japan, but it's not like it was the Bridgeport Bluefish.
 
Basically:

• He has always had incredible command all throughout his career
• His out pitch, the splitter, has remained constant and never caused him injury
• As a result, he has always had an ability to keep batters off the bases as well as anyone in the league

My view for 2015 and beyond is that the only thing that might slow him down is injury.  Rivera, of course, pitched through age 43.  While I might not want to tie up a lot of years for him in a contract, I'd feel confident that at premium-closer rates, he'll either perform to the contract, or get injured and retire.
 
What does everyone think?  What's the most you would offer to keep him here?  Is Cherington likely to under-value him?  Would he be worth more to a club that's fewer pieces away from a title?

 

[Koufax]

Cherington won't undervaluie him.  If he did, he would have traded him in the Great Purge.

 

[jscola85]

Seems pretty clear that they are going to give him a QO.  If another team wants to give him multiple years at his age AND give up a pick, I would imagine the Sox will thank Koji for his efforts and collect their pick.  If the QO is around $14M, it is not a stretch to believe Koji could earn that in 2015 - he's on pace to be worth 3.5 wins after being worth 3.6 wins last year (b-ref WAR).  In 2012 even, he only pitched 36 innings but was worth 1.5 wins to the Rangers.
 
If you believe Koji will hold up physically, there's nothing to suggest he won't be close to his usual self next year - ~70 IP, low 2's ERA and impeccable WHIP.  He'll have the added benefit of additional off-season rest with no postseason in the cards for the team this year.

 

[mabrowndog]

If the QO is around $14M, it is not a stretch to believe Koji could earn that in 2015.

 
I believe some of the mega-contracts signed last winter will help push the QO closer to (or over) $15M this off-season, but he'll still be worth it.
 
FWIW, it jumped from $13.3M to $14.1M a year ago.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

 
I believe some of the mega-contracts signed last winter will help push the QO closer to (or over) $15M this off-season, but he'll still be worth it.
 
FWIW, it jumped from $13.3M to $14.1M a year ago.

 
I'd heard the same thing, but I just copied the data from Cot's and I calculate only $14,419,251 for an average of the top 125 contracts this year.
 
I'm not sure if the calculation uses actual payroll (like Cot's) or AAV, and I'm not sure how they treat suspensions - for instance, Cot's lists ARod at $3,868,852 this year.  If you instead listed him at $27.5M, my calculation would go up to $14,571,251.
 
Edit:  My calculations here.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Cherington won't undervaluie him.  If he did, he would have traded him in the Great Purge.

 
No, he would have had the secret handshake deal with him to come back like folks think he has with Lester

 

[Average Reds]

I find it almost impossible to believe that Koji will get a QO, but enough people have said it that perhaps I'm the one out of touch.  I just can't wrap my mind around paying a 40 year old reliever more than any reliever not named Mariano has ever been paid. Or more if the QO is above $15 million.
 
I recognize Koji"s otherworldly greatness and that he would be worth his contract in any case, but I just don't think there's going to be a robust market offering Koji $15 million per year if he hits free agency.  I would guess that something in the 2/25 range will be enough to keep him as a member of the Red Sox.
 

 

[brandonchristensen]

It was more of a secret fireman carry.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Koji's greatness makes him an outlier as a FA, but so does his age.  I don't think any team is going to offer him a 3-year deal because of the latter.  Could he get something like 2/$28M?  I suppose, but geez, that seems like a lot for a really old closer, even a great one.
 
A QO at around $15M likely gets accepted.  But doesn't it make sense to try to do something a bit more economical?  I'd like the Sox to offer him, say, 1/$12M, with a team option for a second year at $12M or a buy-out for $2M.

 

[jscola85]

Koji's greatness makes him an outlier as a FA, but so does his age.  I don't think any team is going to offer him a 3-year deal because of the latter.  Could he get something like 2/$28M?  I suppose, but geez, that seems like a lot for a really old closer, even a great one.
 
A QO at around $15M likely gets accepted.  But doesn't it make sense to try to do something a bit more economical?  I'd like the Sox to offer him, say, 1/$12M, with a team option for a second year at $12M or a buy-out for $2M.

 
I don't see why Koji would agree to this.  He can probably get at least 2/$20 out on the open market and he knows there is a high likelihood they give him the QO at $14-15M.  What incentive would he have to sign for less than QO for just one year?

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

For sure, Uehara would take a QO. His largest salary to date is $5M and if he rejected the QO, it would have a huge negative impact on his value as teams won't want to cough up a pick for a 1-2 year deal.

A closer obviously has more value to a playoff contender, so an agressive pusuit of Koji should be contingent on the Sox obtaining some established starting pitching durring the offseason.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

As soon as the season is over, if not sooner, the Red Sox should offer him a two-year deal at $16 or $17 million.
 
If he turns that down, he knows he is getting the qualifying offer next, which will hurt his market badly. If he accepts, then the Red Sox are getting a second year of him for like a million or two, plus getting his average annual salary down to like $8 million or so instead of $15 million. 
 
Seems like a win-win. He gets a guaranteed two years and a million or two beyond what he'd get from the QO. The Sox get a second year of him for a million or two, which won't be a big deal if he is lousy in 2016.

 

[jscola85]

Maybe you can get him to sign for $16-17M, but if I were him I'd push for close to $20M.  Seems more of a fair trade - Sox save $4-5M this year vs. the QO in exchange for $4-6M more in total value owed to Koji over the life of the deal.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley also thrived into their 40th and 41st years as closers, it's not just Rivera

 

[Average Reds]

As soon as the season is over, if not sooner, the Red Sox should offer him a two-year deal at $16 or $17 million.
 
If he turns that down, he knows he is getting the qualifying offer next, which will hurt his market badly. If he accepts, then the Red Sox are getting a second year of him for like a million or two, plus getting his average annual salary down to like $8 million or so instead of $15 million. 
 
Seems like a win-win. He gets a guaranteed two years and a million or two beyond what he'd get from the QO. The Sox get a second year of him for a million or two, which won't be a big deal if he is lousy in 2016.

 
The makes no sense.  Specifically, you appear to be conflating a lot of concepts that don't really relate to each other.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

I think it's pretty obvious what's been going on the past few weeks - they're going to convert Koji to a starter.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

 
The makes no sense.  Specifically, you appear to be conflating a lot of concepts that don't really relate to each other.

Care to explain why "the makes no sense"? What concepts are you talking about? Why did you use the word "specifically" when you offered zero specifics? Why am I replying to a useless post?

 

[Joshv02]

Why wouldn't 
 

Care to explain why "the makes no sense"? What concepts are you talking about? Why did you use the word "specifically" when you offered zero specifics? Why am I replying to a useless post?

Why wouldn't Koji just take the QO, then get another contract next year?  I suspect if he dies he'll still command a 1 year $3mm contract in 2016, if his estate wants it.  Why it be a win-win for Koji to sign for $1mm/yr + the $15mm QO?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Because he will be even older then with another full season behind him where he might get injured or become ineffective. If he hurts his arm seriously in 2015, his career is probably over. 
 
And him taking the QO and then shopping himself after 2015 is fine for the Red Sox, as long as they were offering the QO anyway. But if the Sox have to risk a second year for a guy that old, it needs to be at an extremely low price.

 

[benhogan]

If the Sox double the pay day from his last contract, he may be up for the same terms.
2015:  $8.5MM + $1MM appearance incentive + a vesting option (55 appearances) for 2016 to kick in (same $)
 
Someone made a good point and I agree that there is a fair amount of 'Salty hysteria' going on here.  I'd be surprised if this got to a QO stage.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I didn't think they would make him the QO either, but it's been reported a couple times recently that the team is "expected to." 
 
http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-have-no-intentions-trading-uehara
 
http://www.eagletribune.com/sports/x1927903478/Major-league-executive-Sox-probably-will-make-Uehara-qualifying-offer
 
Probably the team isn't even sure yet whether to offer it anyway, as he could get hurt between now and the end of the season, or they could work out an extension before they have to make the call.

 

[Average Reds]

Care to explain why "the makes no sense"? What concepts are you talking about? Why did you use the word "specifically" when you offered zero specifics? Why am I replying to a useless post?

 
I was trying to get you to elaborate on your post before attacking it for being utterly illogical, but since this is how you decided to respond I no longer care about being polite.
 
You suggested that you would offer Koji 2/16 or 2/17 and then stated:
 

 
If he turns that down, he knows he is getting the qualifying offer next, which will hurt his market badly.

 
I don't know if I've ever seen a sentence that is this chock full of nonsense.
 
If Koji "knows" he's getting a qualifying offer, why on earth would he accept 2/16 or 2/17?  I mean, he's getting 1/15.  Compared to 2/17, that's a massively superior offer in economic terms. 
 
And the idea that he would care that it hurts his market value is laughable, because at age 40 he's not going to be receiving any long-term contracts.  More to the point, he would be perfectly happy to accept a QO that pays him more than any reliever has ever been paid with the exception of Mariano, who made $15 million in his best year.
 
Then you go on to say this:
 

 
If he accepts, then the Red Sox are getting a second year of him for like a million or two, plus getting his average annual salary down to like $8 million or so instead of $15 million.

 
 
At first, I assumed that you were talking about Koji accepting the QO, which is why I couldn't figure out what you were talking about.  (It's also why I thought you were conflating the two different scenarios.)  Then I realized that you were saying that because Koji/his agent knows that a QO would hurt his market value, he would accept 2/16 or 2/17 instead of taking the QO.  And the nicest thing I can say about that is that it's blindingly stupid.
 
At the end of the day, you may well be right that Koji is willing to take 2/16 or 2/17.  But he would only accept this if he thought he wasn't getting a QO.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

At the end of the day, you may well be right that Koji is willing to take 2/16 or 2/17.  But he would only accept this if he thought he wasn't getting a QO.

 
He will be 40 next year and 41 in 2016. Not 33 or 35. He is ancient. If the Red Sox make the offer, he is looking at $15 million for 2015 and then going back out onto the market for his age 41 season in 2016. He's going to be risking being hurt or washed up before 2016. He's as likely to be retired by then as he is to get a multimillion dollar offer from somewhere.
 
If he believes he won't be, then sure he can turn that down, good for him. Or he can take a couple million more for sure for that year. Maybe that sounds blindingly stupid to you, but he has never made more than $5 million in one season, so being guaranteed something like $8.5 million for each of 2015 and 2016 might not sound so stupid for him. 
 
The Red Sox don't need to be offering more than that for a pitcher at that age. I am surprised they would even give him the QO but it's been reported that they are likely to. That alone is enough of a risk for an ancient pitcher. If they go two years, the second year has to be for very little, because there is so much risk involved for the team. 
 
The QO ends any realistic chance of anyone other than the Red Sox giving Uehara any guaranteed money for the 2016 season before November 2015. No one else is giving up the draft pick and giving him 2 years at his age.
 
We'll see how Koji looks in November 2015. He could easily be retired, hurt or have a 6.00 ERA by then. I love the guy and want him to retire here, but it has to be at a reasonable price for a guy his age. If he wants to go for as much money as possible every year then good luck to him after next year. 

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

 
He will be 40 next year and 41 in 2016. Not 33 or 35. He is ancient. If the Red Sox make the offer, he is looking at $15 million for 2015 and then going back out onto the market for his age 41 season in 2016. He's going to be risking being hurt or washed up before 2016. He's as likely to be retired by then as he is to get a multimillion dollar offer from somewhere.
 
If he believes he won't be, then sure he can turn that down, good for him. Or he can take a couple million more for sure for that year. Maybe that sounds blindingly stupid to you, but he has never made more than $5 million in one season, so being guaranteed something like $8.5 million for each of 2015 and 2016 might not sound so stupid for him. 
 
The Red Sox don't need to be offering more than that for a pitcher at that age. I am surprised they would even give him the QO but it's been reported that they are likely to. That alone is enough of a risk for an ancient pitcher. If they go two years, the second year has to be for very little, because there is so much risk involved for the team. 
 
The QO ends any realistic chance of anyone other than the Red Sox giving Uehara any guaranteed money for the 2016 season before November 2015. No one else is giving up the draft pick and giving him 2 years at his age.
 
We'll see how Koji looks in November 2015. He could easily be retired, hurt or have a 6.00 ERA by then. I love the guy and want him to retire here, but it has to be at a reasonable price for a guy his age. If he wants to go for as much money as possible every year then good luck to him after next year. 

 
But AR's point is that in your scenario, he wouldn't be guaranteed $8.5M for 2016 - he'd be guaranteed $15M for 2015 and $2M for 2016.  For Free Agent Koji in November 2015 to be able to get $2M on the market, he'd merely need to be ambulatory with an intact UCL, and willing to pitch.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Another possibility is he only wants to play one more year, in which case accepting the QO makes even more sense than accepting a 2/17 offer.

 

[Average Reds]

 
He will be 40 next year and 41 in 2016. Not 33 or 35. He is ancient. If the Red Sox make the offer, he is looking at $15 million for 2015 and then going back out onto the market for his age 41 season in 2016. He's going to be risking being hurt or washed up before 2016. He's as likely to be retired by then as he is to get a multimillion dollar offer from somewhere.
 
If he believes he won't be, then sure he can turn that down, good for him. Or he can take a couple million more for sure for that year. Maybe that sounds blindingly stupid to you, but he has never made more than $5 million in one season, so being guaranteed something like $8.5 million for each of 2015 and 2016 might not sound so stupid for him. 
 
The Red Sox don't need to be offering more than that for a pitcher at that age. I am surprised they would even give him the QO but it's been reported that they are likely to. That alone is enough of a risk for an ancient pitcher. If they go two years, the second year has to be for very little, because there is so much risk involved for the team. 
 
The QO ends any realistic chance of anyone other than the Red Sox giving Uehara any guaranteed money for the 2016 season before November 2015. No one else is giving up the draft pick and giving him 2 years at his age.
 
We'll see how Koji looks in November 2015. He could easily be retired, hurt or have a 6.00 ERA by then. I love the guy and want him to retire here, but it has to be at a reasonable price for a guy his age. If he wants to go for as much money as possible every year then good luck to him after next year. 

 
At the end of the day, I agree with your perspective on Koji's worth and what he will ultimately sign for.  (Maybe a little higher.)  I just think that if the Sox made him a qualifying offer he would grab it because a guarantee of $15 million for a single season dwarfs any of the alternatives that you are discussing.
 
I don't see the Sox offering it.  If they do offer it, he'll take it.

 

[Toe Nash]

Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley also thrived into their 40th and 41st years as closers, it's not just Rivera

Hoffman's FIP from age 39 on: 2.94, 3.99, 2.63, 5.21, retired
Eckersley: 3.42, 3.52, 3.77, 4.18, 4.75, retired
 
They racked up saves but I don't know that they thrived.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Hoffman's 39, 40, and 41 look pretty good right there.  that's why I didn't say 42!

 

[kelpapa]

 
But AR's point is that in your scenario, he wouldn't be guaranteed $8.5M for 2016 - he'd be guaranteed $15M for 2015 and $2M for 2016.  For Free Agent Koji in November 2015 to be able to get $2M on the market, he'd merely need to be ambulatory with an intact UCL, and willing to pitch.

Agreed. Not a great comp but joe Nathan missed his age 35 season with tommy john, pitched 44 subpar innings at age 36 (4.28 fip, 84 era+) and got 7 million a year in Texas for 2 years (I think). Assuming Koji can throw any innings in 2015, he is going to get a lot more than that in this market.

 

[In my lifetime]

The fact that Koji was not traded means to me that he is getting a QO or a 2 yr contract at lower than 15 AAV (2 @20 seems about right to me, vested related to health).
If the RS weren't just about 100% sure that they would sign him (a late season injury would blow up the plan), I just can't imagine they would not have traded him.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I'm not sure Koji wants a multi-year deal.  I'm also not sure he wants to stay with Boston, but let's assume that he loves being carried around by Big Papi.  A QO could be exactly what he is hoping for.
But it's not the best case scenario for the Sox.  I'm sure they'd rather get Koji for less than a tripling of his current salary.  Even for one year, $15M for a closer - let alone a nearly 40 yo closer - is about $5M past reasonable.  So to balance each side's desires, I like the suggestion that the team offer something more like $10M with a vesting player option that kicks in if Koji remains healthy. 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm not sure Koji wants a multi-year deal.  I'm also not sure he wants to stay with Boston, but let's assume that he loves being carried around by Big Papi.  A QO could be exactly what he is hoping for.
But it's not the best case scenario for the Sox.  I'm sure they'd rather get Koji for less than a tripling of his current salary.  Even for one year, $15M for a closer - let alone a nearly 40 yo closer - is about $5M past reasonable.  So to balance each side's desires, I like the suggestion that the team offer something more like $10M with a vesting player option that kicks in if Koji remains healthy.

Koji has been woefully underpaid in his career - he's only made $26+M in his US baseball career. The Red Sox aren't going to let him go without getting a draft pick compensation back or they would have traded him already. It is clear that the Red Sox are going to give him the QO and consider some of his salary an exchange for past performance.

As such, the FLOOR for Koji's next contract is $15M guaranteed. Maybe he'd take 2/$20M (or so) over 1/$15M, but there is virtually no way Koji's next contract will be less for $15M in guaranteed money.

 

[gammoseditor]

His prior salary meaningless for his next contract.  He was underpaid then and his stock is way up.  I think the Hoffman and Eckersley numbers support why you'd rather pay more on a one year deal than give him 2 years, and increases the chance for the QO. 

 

[Reverend]

Would a discussion of how badly Texas fucked up with him be new thread worthy? Probably not, but... wow.
 
Anyway, what it comes down to is, if you think the Sox will slap a QO if it comes to it, how much a two year deal would have to be worth over a 1/$15m to get Koji to sign. I'm with Average Reds that $1-2m above doesn't make it make sense.

 

[In my lifetime]

Would a discussion of how badly Texas fucked up with him be new thread worthy? Probably not, but... wow.
 
Anyway, what it comes down to is, if you think the Sox will slap a QO if it comes to it, how much a two year deal would have to be worth over a 1/$15m to get Koji to sign. I'm with Average Reds that $1-2m above doesn't make it make sense.

 2/20 is my vote 

 

[Reverend]

What is the point of the QO, though? If you offer, it's a no brainer he accepts, so there's no way you are getting a draft pick out of him. Paying him. $10M more than they did last year, when the team isn't likely to be that good frankly, seems woefully inefficient.

Why not just offer him a 1 year $10-$12M deal with an option / buyout that at least gives you some upside? Wouldn't a 1 year $12M deal with a $12M club option / $3M buyout make a lot more seen than the QO?

 
I think the QO only comes into play if he doesn't accept the 1 or 2 year offer presented. It's a back up plan.
 
Edit: Notably, one that both sides know about, so it's really a parameter.

 

[gammoseditor]

What is the point of the QO, though? If you offer, it's a no brainer he accepts, so there's no way you are getting a draft pick out of him. Paying him. $10M more than they did last year, when the team isn't likely to be that good frankly, seems woefully inefficient.

Why not just offer him a 1 year $10-$12M deal with an option / buyout that at least gives you some upside? Wouldn't a 1 year $12M deal with a $12M club option / $3M buyout make a lot more seen than the QO?

 
Why do you think his salary this year is relevant?  It was signed two year ago.  He's outperformed his salary more than any other post arb player in baseball.

 

[Rasputin]

What is the point of the QO, though? If you offer, it's a no brainer he accepts, so there's no way you are getting a draft pick out of him. Paying him. $10M more than they did last year, when the team isn't likely to be that good frankly, seems woefully inefficient.

Why not just offer him a 1 year $10-$12M deal with an option / buyout that at least gives you some upside? Wouldn't a 1 year $12M deal with a $12M club option / $3M buyout make a lot more seen than the QO?

You're missing the point that the QO is plan B and that the Sox clearly intend to be good next year.

 

[Apisith]

He knows he's going to get the QO, why would he accept anything less than $15m guaranteed for next year? If he wants a multi year contract then maybe you can negotiate it down to a 2/$24m deal but there's no way offering him $8m or $10m will do it because he knows he's going to be offered the QO.

 

[Rasputin]

He knows he's going to get the QO, why would he accept anything less than $15m guaranteed for next year? If he wants a multi year contract then maybe you can negotiate it down to a 2/$24m deal but there's no way offering him $8m or $10m will do it because he knows he's going to be offered the QO.

 
So as soon as the season ends, they start talking about a two year deal, and if it doesn't work, you give him the QO.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Why not just offer him a 1 year $10-$12M deal with an option / buyout that at least gives you some upside? Wouldn't a 1 year $12M deal with a $12M club option / $3M buyout make a lot more seen than the QO?

More sense for the Sox? Yes. However, how does that make more sense for Koji? Basically, you're asking Koji to give the Sox a free club option for 2016. Why would he do that?

 

[judyb]

You pretty much have to assume someone's unbelievably stupid to imagine he'd accept anything less than the QO, either the Red Sox for not trading him, or Koji for thinking he might not get a QO when they didn't trade him.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I don't think it's necessarily a given that he gets a QO.  As noted earlier, people said the same thing about Salty.  I thought giving Salty a QO made some sense because worst case scenario you pay your starting catcher $15m to be a bridge to Vazquez/Swihart.  I'm not sure paying a 40 year old closer $15m makes as much sense.  If he wants to stay he'll sign a reasonable 2 year deal or 1 year with a mutual option or something.  If they really want to keep him and he wants to test the market, I doubt they'll have to pay $15m to beat any other offers he receives anyway.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Because with the buyout, he'd be guaranteed 1 year, $15M...which is equal to the QO. If he pitches well, he'll get 2 years, $24M.

 
Only if he's worth more than 1 year, $9M on the open market - in which case he just gave the Sox control over him and takes a pay cut.  If he's worth less than 1 year, $9M on the open market, he's out on the open market, which is the same scenario as if he accepted a QO.
 
I think the problem here is the underlying assumption that he'll receive a QO - none of these contracts are superior for Koji than accepting a QO.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Because with the buyout, he'd be guaranteed 1 year, $15M...which is equal to the QO. If he pitches well, he'll get 2 years, $24M.

C'mon Rudy, you're better than this. By giving the Red Sox a team option for free, Koji loses any upside and has no protection on the downside.

For example, if Koji pitches extremely well - let's say he has another 2013 season - where would Koji rather be: a free agent or being forced to pitch for $12M because the Red Sox have a team option on him even if he might have received millions more in free agency.

On the flip side, if Koji all of a sudden loses it, he's no better off with the Red Sox offer than the QO - he's basically on the street looking for a job.

If you were representing Koji, would you advise him to take that contract?

For Koji to take a 2-year deal from the Red Sox - he's either going to have to get protection on the downside or substantial escalation on the upside as measured from the baseline of a 1/$15M offer.

As a short aside, assuming Koji doesn't get hurt, if the Red Sox do not offer Koji a QO, I am going to have to rethink how intelligent the Sox FO is (collectively) because if they plan on letting him walk after this season, they hold have traded him for assets - pretty much any assets. I have to believe that the Red Sox have already thought this through.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

People seem to have the Sox negotiating against themselves. Nathan's contract is a perfect comp and supports a market value of 2/20. The QO makes no sense as the Sox would be overpaying and if he has another great year they will be in the same situation a year from now.

If the Sox make a competitive offer I don't see any reason any reason why Uehara would reject it.

 

[judyb]

Worst case, he makes 1 year, $15M. Best case, he gets 2 years, $24M.

How about 1 year, $12M...with a $15M option or $3M buyout? Worst case he makes 1 year, $15M, best case, 2 years / $30M.

Do people recognize that closers simply don't make this kind of money, especially those that are 40 years old? What team is going to give him multiple years at this kind of money?

Again, what does a QO do for the Sox, except lock in an aging player at a rate that is likely much higher than market rate?

It keeps him here on a 1 year deal instead of possibly losing him to another team that offers him 2.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Why are you guys thinking that maximizing his potential salary is the ONLY factor in Koji's decision-making?  We've never seen players, especially older ones, take a little less to stay in a good situation?  Or was Tim Wakefield just plain stupid? 
 
Why are you also assuming that the Red Sox don't value at all the ability to negotiate with Koji at the end of the season before other teams get to him?  This isn't necessarily just a black-and-white, either/or, trade him or offer a QO scenario.  Maybe the Sox didn't trade him because they hope to extend him on favorable terms before he hits FA, terms that are slightly better than just giving him the QO.  And maybe they're still kicking around the QO as a potential Plan B but haven't decided on that yet, either.
 
There are more things in heaven and earth, etc....
 
Edit: And by "you guys" I mean some posters, not all.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

My point is that the right to make an QO has no value as it is an overpay. Uehara controls the situation as he can either give the Sox a discount or he can pusue market value somewhere else at around 2/20.

Japanese culture values loyalty so he may very well accept a discount.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Worst case, he makes 1 year, $15M. Best case, he gets 2 years, $24M.

How about 1 year, $12M...with a $15M option or $3M buyout? Worst case he makes 1 year, $15M, best case, 2 years / $30M.

Do people recognize that closers simply don't make this kind of money, especially those that are 40 years old? What team is going to give him multiple years at this kind of money?

Again, what does a QO do for the Sox, except lock in an aging player at a rate that is likely much higher than market rate?

Rudy - what part of "team options have no value to the player" don't you get? The team option could be for $1M or $30M, it doesn't matter as it has NO VALUE to Koji as it is entirely within the team's control to exercise it. Because it is entirely within the team's control, the team will exercise their option only when the option is equal to or LESS THAN Koji's market value.

If the buyout was for $4M, then maybe Koji would take it because he would get $1M more than the QO.

Edit: team options are so valuable to the team, in fact, that I suspect that Koji's agents wouldn't accept a deal with a team option unless the second year salary was something like $15M and the first year salary plus buyout were at least a couple of million greater than the QO.

And to answer your question - the QO gets the Sox a draft pick. If the Sox are not going to offer Koji the QO - which is their right - they should have traded him at the deadline because at least they could have picked up an asset or two for him. Not offering the QO AND not trading him is the worst of all worlds I suspect.