The First Sixth of the Season is complete... how dey doin'?

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Now 1/3 through the season. Some projections....

Benintendi: 105 r, 21 hr, 111 rbi
Betts: 156 r, 57 2b, 51 hr, 111 rbi, 414 tb
Martinez: 51 hr, 132 rbi
Devers: 27 hr, 84 rbi
Moreland: 24 hr, 78 rbi - but that should go up because now he's playing full time
Sale: 15-6, 312 k, 225 ip
Porcello: 18-6, 202 ip
Price: 15-12, 187 ip
Kimbrel: 48 sv, 15 hr allowed (!!!!!)


Kimbrel has given up 6 runs, and 5 homers. That's....incredible. Basically the only way to score off him is to hit a solo homer. If you don't do that, you ain't touching him.

And Benintendi has really come on lately. His projections look terrific. His last 29 games have produced:

114 ab, 23 r, 39 h, 9 2b, 3 3b, 6 hr, 24 rbi, 3 sb, .342/.400/.632/1.032

Pretty sweet.

Last year the Sox had 4 guys hit 20+ homers, and NOBODY hit 25 or more. This year they have the following guys on pace for 20 or more homers:

Benintendi: 21
Bogaerts: 21
Moreland: 24
Devers: 27
Betts: 51
Martinez: 51

Quite a difference!
 

Sale4CY

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Apr 6, 2018
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I can’t imagine Sale will get anywhere near 225 innings. I’d just venture to guess that projection has him making 36 starts or so, which would be about 4 more than he’ll actually make.
 

bostonbeerbelly

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I predict 19-11 over that span (538 has them at 17-13). Both of us have the Yankees at 18-12 (thru June 4) so I put the Sox 3 games in front and 538 has their lead down to 1.

FWIW (which is sadly very little) I have Boston go the following:
3-1 @ Tex
1-2 @ NYY
1-2 @ Tor
3-0 v Oak
3-1 v Bal
2-1 @ TB
2-1 v Atl
2-1 v Tor
2-2 @ Hou
25 games through this 30 game stretch - they are only 1 game off your predictions, if my math is right. Not bad at all.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I can’t imagine Sale will get anywhere near 225 innings. I’d just venture to guess that projection has him making 36 starts or so, which would be about 4 more than he’ll actually make.
I simply took their current stats (well, before yesterday's game) and multiplied them by three, since the Sox were at that time exactly 1/3 of the way through the season. You're probably right - Sale probably won't get 36 starts, but I bet he finishes close to 225 innings. Because they've been letting him go deeper in games (where he's been pitching well) compared to early in the season. But we shall see. I'd actually like to see his innings be brought down some so he's fresher for the playoffs. Let's see if that helps him perform better then.
 

Sale4CY

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Apr 6, 2018
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I simply took their current stats (well, before yesterday's game) and multiplied them by three, since the Sox were at that time exactly 1/3 of the way through the season. You're probably right - Sale probably won't get 36 starts, but I bet he finishes close to 225 innings. Because they've been letting him go deeper in games (where he's been pitching well) compared to early in the season. But we shall see. I'd actually like to see his innings be brought down some so he's fresher for the playoffs. Let's see if that helps him perform better then.
I think a lot of people would be freaking out if we let Sale throw that many innings, considering he only threw 214 last year and we all know how that turned out.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The Sox so far have played .691 baseball. Going forward, they have to play...

.402 to go .500 for the season
.486 to win 90 games
.533 to win 95 games
.579 to win 100 games
.636 to win 106 games, which would break the franchise record.
 

Ramon AC

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What?
Kimbrel has given up 6 runs, and 5 homers. That's....incredible. Basically the only way to score off him is to hit a solo homer. If you don't do that, you ain't touching him.
Chili Davis endorses this approach to hitting.I often curse him over breakfast.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Boston vs. the best

- vs. NYY: 3-3
- vs. Hou: 2-2
- vs. Atl: 2-1
- vs. LAA: 3-0

So 10-6 going up against the best four teams on the schedule. Not too bad.
 

Norm Siebern

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The MFY have only played 23 games on the road. In contrast the Red Sox have already won 21 games on the road. With that thin pitching staff, all those road make-up games are going to catch up to the MFY.
 

tims4wins

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The MFY have only played 23 games on the road. In contrast the Red Sox have already won 21 games on the road. With that thin pitching staff, all those road make-up games are going to catch up to the MFY.
Yep, the MFY have to play 6 more games the rest of the way than the Sox. Granted that will be reduced to 4 after today, but that is still 4 more off days the Sox have in hand the rest of the way. Rest matters.
 

tims4wins

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Started out 17-2.
Then went 11-12.
Now on a run of 13-5.
The way I like to think of this is that since the 17-2 start, they are 24-17, which is basically a 95 win pace, which seems in line with their true talent level. But since they already have that 17-2 start in hand, if they play the pace of the last 41 game over the remainder of the season, they would be on pace for 101 wins.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Best record through 60 games of the John Henry era.

View attachment 21310
That 2002 club also stands out, and perhaps provides a lesson not to get overconfident. The Sox finished with 93 wins after that hot start, 10 games behind the Yanks, despite having an almost identical run differential. The A's also won 103 games, but the Angels took the wild card with 99 wins, knocked the Yanks out in the Division Series and went on to win the WS.
 

AB in DC

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That's argument #1 in favor of the second wild card, by the way. The Sox got creamed in inter-league play that year (5-13, including 1-8 against NL division winners), while the As (16-2, 0-0) and Angels (11-7, 1-2) played much weaker NL teams.
 

grimshaw

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The MFY have only played 23 games on the road. In contrast the Red Sox have already won 21 games on the road. With that thin pitching staff, all those road make-up games are going to catch up to the MFY.
I think the Yankees opponents will help make up for that. They have 35 games left vs. .500 or better and the Sox have 43.

Though the pain in the ass Rays are under .500 and the Yankees still somehow play them 17 more times.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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chrisfont9

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This team will sink or swim with its rotation. Last year they won a bit more than they should have but the thinness of their starting pitching showed up in the playoffs. This time, I'd say that while games in June shouldn't be the source of much pontificating, it was nice to see Porcello and Price pitch so well in the last two days. Also Pom has shown signs of life. I love the plan to start Wright, to give Sale (and others) a bit more of a breather. I've pontificated before about how much I loved Tito's insistence on reducing people's workloads throughout the season, particularly later, to enable them to peak in the fall, and they have the makings of such a system here with Wright finally coming back. It may all go to shit again, particularly Pomeranz, but if it doesn't, then this team should be in excellent shape regardless of what the Yankees put together.

Oh, and them not buying Gerritt Cole this winter is my favorite (opponents') story of the season so far. I guess he's still our problem, but boy would he have helped the MFYs.
 

Norm Siebern

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I think the Yankees opponents will help make up for that. They have 35 games left vs. .500 or better and the Sox have 43.

Though the pain in the ass Rays are under .500 and the Yankees still somehow play them 17 more times.
My point is the Yankees have played only 21 games on the road to this point. They are a team built for Stade Fasciste III. That they have a preponderance of games left on the road (and then you throw in the fewer days off - for travel, to rest their pitchers, to wear out that bullpen), that does not bode well for the Yanks. If people worry that the Red Sox record is inflated due to relatively poor opponents, I argue that the Yankees record is equally inflated due to how many more games they have had at home versus on the road thus far.
 

chawson

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My point is the Yankees have played only 21 games on the road to this point. They are a team built for Stade Fasciste III. That they have a preponderance of games left on the road (and then you throw in the fewer days off - for travel, to rest their pitchers, to wear out that bullpen), that does not bode well for the Yanks. If people worry that the Red Sox record is inflated due to relatively poor opponents, I argue that the Yankees record is equally inflated due to how many more games they have had at home versus on the road thus far.
I had expected this to be true for Didi, Gardner and Walker, who are indeed worthless on the road, but Judge isn’t so hot either. He’s got a .705 OPS and 93 wRC+.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I had expected this to be true for Didi, Gardner and Walker, who are indeed worthless on the road, but Judge isn’t so hot either. He’s got a .705 OPS and 93 wRC+.
Their home & away splits are nearly identical across most categories as a team. Judge specifically is harder to explain since its not like he's using the short porch to blast shots out to right and last year he was basically even.
 

Max Power

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Their home & away splits are nearly identical across most categories as a team. Judge specifically is harder to explain since its not like he's using the short porch to blast shots out to right and last year he was basically even.
How is 1.165 vs .935 OPS "basically even?" Judge was still good on the road, but pretty significantly better at home.
 

Murderer's Crow

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How is 1.165 vs .935 OPS "basically even?" Judge was still good on the road, but pretty significantly better at home.
You're right, not as close as I expected they were but still not the split we're seeing this year. Nights like tonight certainly aren't going to help.
 

nvalvo

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Their home & away splits are nearly identical across most categories as a team. Judge specifically is harder to explain since its not like he's using the short porch to blast shots out to right and last year he was basically even.
Well, it's hard to explain, except in that he only has 107 PA on the road this season. It wouldn't take many multi-hit games to move things towards even.

Also, Judge has a .441 BABIP at home this season. I get that he hits the ball extremely hard, but that can't keep up, can it? Especially when you consider that just shy of 1/3 of his home hits are HR...
 
As of today, the Sox have a strength of schedule of .505 while the Yankees have a strength of schedule of .503. With two games against Detroit today that will be dropping a bit. The Yankees so far have played 13 games against the AL Central while the Sox have only played 3 games against that division. The AL Central is currently 67-110 (.379!) against non-AL Central opponents. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have played 35 games against the AL East when compared with the Yankees 22. The non-Sox AL East is 68-66 against non-AL East opponents. I find this significant in that the AL East on the whole is probably a bit better than the overall records suggest. After all, the O's, Jays and Rays each have two of the top 3 teams in the league beating up on them day in and day out. Meanwhile the AL Central teams are a lot worse than their records suggest as their overall records are supported by the intradivision record defaulting to .500. If you want to look at it by run differential, the AL East sits at +44 while the AL Central features a putrid -183. Keep in mind that the entirety of a division's run differential is explained by interdivisional play as intradivisional run differential is 0 by definition.

So basically the Sox's opponents overall are likely quite a bit tougher than their win % suggests while the Yankees' opponents overall are likely quite a bit softer than their win % suggests. Combine that with the relatively brutal road schedule that the Yankees will be facing (alongside extra doubleheaders and lost days off) and I'm cautiously optimistic.
 

PhabPhour20

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Meanwhile, the Red Sox have played 35 games against the AL East when compared with the Yankees 22. The non-Sox AL East is 68-66 against non-AL East opponents. I find this significant in that the AL East on the whole is probably a bit better than the overall records suggest. After all, the O's, Jays and Rays each have two of the top 3 teams in the league beating up on them day in and day out.
I just hope this doesn't mean that the O's have sold Machado and the Rays and Jays other useful pieces before they get to play the Yanks. Since they are not only performing worse than expected, but have two very strong teams to look up at in the standings.

That being said, I guess the same holds true for the Central, that those teams could offload some useful parts before the Sox play them.
 

phenweigh

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OK, the thread title is past relevance as we are approaching the half-way point, but I like checking progress from time-to-time. Through 70 games, the 2018 Sox not only continue to outpace other John Henry owned teams, but they are pulling away.

upload_2018-6-15_7-55-44.png

Three games better than the 2002 team, though that team did have a better run differential.
 

tims4wins

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31-20 since the 17-2 start, which I maintain is more their true talent level. But 31-20 is a 98.5 win team, and with the 17-2 start in hand, projects the Sox to 104 wins. I'd take that in a heartbeat.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The Sox so far have played .691 baseball. Going forward, they have to play...

.402 to go .500 for the season
.486 to win 90 games
.533 to win 95 games
.579 to win 100 games
.636 to win 106 games, which would break the franchise record.
Updating this--they now have to go:

33-59 (.359) to win 81 games
42-50 (.457) to win 90 games
47-45 (.511) to win 95 games
52-40 (.565) to win 100 games
58-34 (.630) to break the franchise win record
 

Max Power

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31-20 since the 17-2 start, which I maintain is more their true talent level. But 31-20 is a 98.5 win team, and with the 17-2 start in hand, projects the Sox to 104 wins. I'd take that in a heartbeat.
You mean their true talent level isn't a 140 win team?

The thing that jumps out on that chart is that it's an average offensive Red Sox team that's really great at preventing runs. The only concern, if you can call it that, on the defensive side of the ball is that Kimbrel appears to be just a regular closer this year. I was hoping he'd start to come around after missing spring training, but his usual off the chart strikeout numbers haven't shown up yet.
 

tims4wins

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You mean their true talent level isn't a 140 win team?

The thing that jumps out on that chart is that it's an average offensive Red Sox team that's really great at preventing runs. The only concern, if you can call it that, on the defensive side of the ball is that Kimbrel appears to be just a regular closer this year. I was hoping he'd start to come around after missing spring training, but his usual off the chart strikeout numbers haven't shown up yet.
I mean as opposed to 48-22, which projects to 111 wins
 

uk_sox_fan

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Looking ahead these are the remaining games (split by home/away) for Boston and NY as well as the home and away win percentages these teams have had against everyone else (i.e. ignoring games already played against Bos & NYY):

Code:
    NYY (H/A)    BOS (H/A)  Hm W%  Aw W%
BOS                7/6      .677   .727
NYY      6/7                .710   .704
TOR      6/3       7/3      .522   .500
TBR     6/10       3/3      .542   .517
BAL      5/8       3/6      .385   .200
CLE      0/4       4/3      .645   .485
MIN      0/3       4/3      .500   .444
DET      4/0       0/3      .595   .333
KCR      4/0       0/3      .300   .344
CHW      3/3       0/4      .364   .323
LAA      0/0       3/0      .586   .613
OAK      0/3       0/0      .484   .483
TEX      4/0       3/0      .345   .412
SEA      3/3       3/3      .629   .636
HOU      0/0       3/0      .640   .735
WSN      0/2       0/3      .486   .679
PHI      0/3       2/2      .647   .406
ATL      3/0       0/3      .613   .588
MIA      0/2       2/0      .364   .344
NYM      3/0       3/0      .387   .484
The takeaway? Boston's opponents the rest of the way have played at a .524 pace accounting for home and away win percentages against all teams other than Bos and NY. The Yankees' opponents have played at a .499 pace, despite the fact that the Yankees have 6 more road games left than Boston. If both the Sox and Yankees lose their advantage over the average team and won at the pace their opponents have averaged, the Sox would end up with 91.8 wins whilst New York would finish with 93.1

This actually underestimates each club's wins (above and beyond the effect of lowering their win percentages to essentially league average) because it assumes in the 13 games they play HTH each club goes ~ 4-9 against the other. Raising them to 6 1/2 - 6 1/2 HTH brings the totals to 94.4 wins for Boston and 97.6 for NY. This implies that if Boston and NY over-perform against their opponents at the same rate, Boston would have to go 8-5 HTH against the Yankees in order to force that 1-game playoff and avenge my 9-year old self.
 

uk_sox_fan

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And to add to your enjoyment I've added each team's records thus far against those opponents:

Code:
    NYY (H/A)    BOS (H/A)  Hm W%  Aw W%   Bos H   Bos A   NY H    NY A
BOS                7/6      .677   .727     ---     ---     2-1    1-2
NYY      6/7                .710   .704     2-1     1-2     ---    ---
TOR      6/3       7/3      .522   .500     3-0     4-2     3-1    4-2
TBR     6/10       3/3      .542   .517     4-2     5-2     3-0    ---
BAL      5/8       3/6      .385   .200     6-1     3-0     1-3    2-0
CLE      0/4       4/3      .645   .485     ---     ---     3-0    ---
MIN      0/3       4/3      .500   .444     ---     ---     4-0    ---
DET      4/0       0/3      .595   .333     2-1     ---     ---    2-1
KCR      4/0       0/3      .300   .344     2-1     ---     ---    2-1
CHW      3/3       0/4      .364   .323     1-2     ---     ---    ---
LAA      0/0       3/0      .586   .613     ---     3-0     2-1    3-0
OAK      0/3       0/0      .484   .483     1-2     1-2     2-1    ---
TEX      4/0       3/0      .345   .412     ---     3-1     ---    1-2
SEA      3/3       3/3      .629   .636     ---     1-0     ---    ---
HOU      0/0       3/0      .640   .735     ---     2-2     2-1    3-1
WSN      0/2       0/3      .486   .679     ---     ---     1-1    ---
PHI      0/3       2/2      .647   .406     ---     ---     ---    ---
ATL      3/0       0/3      .613   .588     2-1     ---     ---    ---
MIA      0/2       2/0      .364   .344     ---     2-0     1-1    ---
NYM      3/0       3/0      .387   .484     ---     ---     ---    2-1
 

grimshaw

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The Yankees being worn down by having to play more games is kind of overstated IMO. One of them is a completion of a suspended game, and they have two doubleheaders vs the Orioles.

Sure they have more games to play, but their competition is also weaker the rest of the way.
The big test is the Sox staying close over this tough stretch.
 

ponch73

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It might also be worth noting that the Red Sox are 7-5 in games started by Pomeranz, Velazquez, Johnson or Beeks (where the starter ERA was 5.93, courtesy of Pomeranz and Beeks) and 41-17 in games started by the current starting rotation of Sale, Price, Porcello, EdRo and Wright (where the starter ERA was 3.26).

So, they could be at a 113-win pace if the current starters remain healthy and viable.
 
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Merkle's Boner

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Seems to me the main difference is NYY has 4 games left against Cleveland and Houston, while the Sox have 10 games left against those two teams.
 

jon abbey

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Seems to me the main difference is NYY has 4 games left against Cleveland and Houston, while the Sox have 10 games left against those two teams.
And BOS's 10 come in their final 37 games of the season, NY finishes with CLE in the last series before the ASB (they are already finished with HOU).
 

uk_sox_fan

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Meh. You're talking 10 games out of 92 remaining. Ultimately whether the Sox go 4-6 in those games or 6-4 matters very little - essentially the difference between 6-7 and 7-6 vs the MFY.