The Average Fan’s Perspective

[CR67dream]

He has provided evidence. He’s made straightforward claims about the fact that the Sox payroll was once regularly at or near the top and no longer is. Rather than engaging with this irrefutable point, people have treated him hostilely and now demanding that he provide vague data about “free agents.”
The behavior of folks on this thread, including mods, does a lot to explain why SoSH has been so detached from reality. The average fan was almost certainly better than the average SoSHer last year at predicting the team’s win total. Would be nice if there was some self reflection on this point.

Dude, you're out of your tree. PM me if you want to take this further.

 

[sezwho]

Dude, you're out of your tree. PM me if you want to take this further.

@CR67dream somehow keeps the train on the tracks in spite of the epic nonsense. Self reflection never a bad, but his/her contributions here are above reproach.

edit - replied to wrong post but still stands.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Next year's class is potentially headed by Burnes and Fried, correct? They're great pitchers, but they'll also have reached their 30th birthday and will likely be looking for $250 million or so. Do $250 million deals for 30+ pitchers match up with the Red Sox goals any better than the pitchers who were available this year? It seems obvious they've been very averse to the kind of risks that come with those deals.

Is it necessarily the risks or the timing that is the bigger factor. Burnes is a better pitcher than Montgomery or Snell. The best years of his contract are more likely to coincide with the infusion of the young prospects than Montgomery or Snell. There are a number of reasons why they might be more willing to extend themselves for Burnes than this year's FAs.

 

[HfxBob]

Is it necessarily the risks or the timing that is the bigger factor. Burnes is a better pitcher than Montgomery or Snell. The best years of his contract are more likely to coincide with the infusion of the young prospects than Montgomery or Snell. There are a number of reasons why they might be more willing to extend themselves for Burnes than this year's FAs.

I agree in principle with what you're saying.

But the David Price signing was arguably perfectly timed, and contributed to 3 division titles and a championship, and while we can't say this with certainty, the overall results of that signing appear to have soured Henry quite a bit on this sort of risk factor.

 

[8slim]

The average fan is an idiot….

The old SoSH is alive and well!

 

[simplicio]

Why is he he on the hook to provide evidence for a secondary point to his original claim, which centered around overall spending? The facts on that are beyond dispute.
The burden of proof is on those who are claiming the Sox have not stopped spending relative to their peers. That claim is the center of the argument. If you think the Sox have not stopped spending relative to their peers, please provide evidence. Otherwise, stop bullying and making demands of people who are pointing out facts about payroll trends.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRp2lEfZR_fsUGh6vQpiVCVZKQWuFIF2Gxo7GdYLY5zMAc4MCa3ZLSRzgelHZHrsw/pubhtml

Here are the CBT taxes payed by each team for the last 20 years. "Stopped spending relative to their peers" is hogwash. Last year they dipped under (still holding a payroll of 97% of the CBT) to reset the tax, as they have always done regularly. They're spending like they always have.

The difference is in the past couple years a few more teams have gone completely bonkers, and now appear to regret it. SD's massive spending got them nothing, and now their most notable moves this winter have been departures. The Mets didn't even wait till the offseason to dump salary, and who have they added this winter, Manaea at 2/28? The Dodgers and MFY are spending like they always do and Philly retained Nola, but none of the other teams that went over the line last year seem to be in a hurry to keep the throttle on. Obviously Boras's guys are still out there so the picture could still change, but the 2022-23 spending jump is starting to look more like a blip induced by Steve Cohen and a dying Peter Seidler pushing the market to strange places.

 

[HfxBob]

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRp2lEfZR_fsUGh6vQpiVCVZKQWuFIF2Gxo7GdYLY5zMAc4MCa3ZLSRzgelHZHrsw/pubhtml

Here are the CBT taxes payed by each team for the last 20 years. "Stopped spending relative to their peers" is hogwash. Last year they dipped under (still holding a payroll of 97% of the CBT) to reset the tax, as they have always done regularly. They're spending like they always have.

The difference is in the past couple years a few more teams have gone completely bonkers, and now appear to regret it. SD's massive spending got them nothing, and now their most notable moves this winter have been departures. The Mets didn't even wait till the offseason to dump salary, and who have they added this winter, Manaea at 2/28? The Dodgers and MFY are spending like they always do and Philly retained Nola, but none of the other teams that went over the line last year seem to be in a hurry to keep the throttle on. Obviously Boras's guys are still out there so the picture could still change, but the 2022-23 spending jump is starting to look more like a blip induced by Steve Cohen and a dying Peter Seidler pushing the market to strange places.

I think that's debatable. We can't get past the Dodgers just investing well over a billion on 3 players.

 

[pk1627]

“Henry doesn’t care” (currently backed by a lack of free spending this - not last - this offseason) is the provincial/outsider argument Boston media has made since he bought the team. It lasts Every. Damn. Year. - until they spend (2022 Story, 2023 Devers, 2024 TBD). That the average fan gets caught up in it is no surprise.

I hate the argument. Whether Henry cares or not is nothing I worry about. Install smart leadership. Check. Develop your considerable talent (check) and construct the best team you can always allowing cap room for late July (work in progress). Win 90 games and play in front of intense crowds in October (starts in late March).

PS. 95 wins as the “standard” is laughable. There was a 6 year period where we had Theo/Francona/HoF players (Pedro/Ortiz/Pedroia in my book). That wasn’t a standard. That was Red Sox baseball at its best.

 

[simplicio]

I think that's debatable. We can't get past the Dodgers just investing well over a billion on 3 players.

The Dodgers have been consistently spending at the top of the market for a decade, that's expected behavior from them and doesn't dictate the market whatsoever cause it's not like there are other Ohtanis waking around. You'll note that they're also only giving out mega-contracts to guys in their mid-20s; they let Trea Turner walk and skipped the SS insanity of last winter entirely.

 

[Benj4ever]

95 wins as the “standard” is laughable. There was a 6 year period where we had Theo/Francona/HoF players (Pedro/Ortiz/Pedroia in my book). That wasn’t a standard. That was Red Sox baseball at its best.

Good point. Kudos to all the fans out there who, like you, realize that building a team is a challenge (to say the least).

 

[geoflin]

“There was a 6 year period where we had Theo/Francona/HoF players (Pedro/Ortiz/Pedroia in my book). That wasn’t a standard. That was Red Sox baseball at its best.

And Manny who would have been HOF except for the substance abuse

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

All teams’ fans should demand excellence. Consecutive last place finishes is not excellence. Rumors of unloading the team’s closer - to save money - isn’t excellence. This isn’t even “pretty darn good.”

We became accustomed to a “win at all costs” mentality for the first half of John Henry’s ownership. It’s a huge let down to not compete. And the Red Sox are not built to compete in 2024.

So all teams should be "excellent" to meet the expectations of their demanding fans? I'm not sure you're grasping how sports works.....

 

[gibreel]

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRp2lEfZR_fsUGh6vQpiVCVZKQWuFIF2Gxo7GdYLY5zMAc4MCa3ZLSRzgelHZHrsw/pubhtml

Here are the CBT taxes payed by each team for the last 20 years. "Stopped spending relative to their peers" is hogwash. Last year they dipped under (still holding a payroll of 97% of the CBT) to reset the tax, as they have always done regularly. They're spending like they always have.

The difference is in the past couple years a few more teams have gone completely bonkers, and now appear to regret it. SD's massive spending got them nothing, and now their most notable moves this winter have been departures. The Mets didn't even wait till the offseason to dump salary, and who have they added this winter, Manaea at 2/28? The Dodgers and MFY are spending like they always do and Philly retained Nola, but none of the other teams that went over the line last year seem to be in a hurry to keep the throttle on. Obviously Boras's guys are still out there so the picture could still change, but the 2022-23 spending jump is starting to look more like a blip induced by Steve Cohen and a dying Peter Seidler pushing the market to strange places.

"Stopped spending relative to their peers" is a precise claim, concerning how the team is spending compared to their big market peers. You are correct that other teams are now spending more than they used to. That's why I wrote that the stopped spending relative to their peers. Whether those teams regret it is immaterial. But the claim is clearly not hogwash.