The AFC East - 2015 - This Year's Most Competitive Division?

Valek123 · Sep 14, 2015

I agree, I don't think any team gets out of this division with more than 11 wins - and I think if healthy it's possible two teams get in at 11-5(Pats) and 9-7(Bills). FTR I think the Dolphins end up 7-9 and Jets 6-10 but all have defenses that can cause chaos and the standings could flip on a few key injuries.

Silverdude2167 · Sep 14, 2015

While I would not be surprised by a Bills win this coming weekend. I am finding it difficult to get on the bandwagon of a team coached by Rex.

They beat up a paper tiger with glaring holes and got up for a "big game".

We have all seen Rex's ability to motivate his team for "big games" but they always fall flat against "lesser competition".
I am very interested to see how they do in weeks 3-9 as those games are all against bad - average+ teams depending on how you see Miami and Cincy. If they are legit they should come out of that stretch with at least 4 wins.

MillarTime · Sep 14, 2015

Silverdude2167 said:
While I would not be surprised by a Bills win this coming weekend. I am finding it difficult to get on the bandwagon of a team coached by Rex.

Agreed. Still more worried about Miami and still believe Pats go 12-4.

ifmanis5 · Sep 14, 2015

Wide open.

GeorgeCostanza · Sep 14, 2015

ifmanis5 said:
Wide open.

Took 4 posts to get there. You guys are slipping. Aside from stating the obvious that it's way to early to make any sort of declarations, the Bills have my curiosity piqued. As silverdude mentioned, can Rex keep them on an even keep throughout the season, and will Taylor be a serviceable QB for 15 more games. The defense looks damn good, great early test for the Pats.

Stitch01 · Sep 14, 2015

I was disappointed, as a Pats fan, that they went with Taylor from the start. He's the only QB on the roster with a real chance to be league average or better and that is a very good team with a league average quarterback.

Luckily we still have TB12.

RedOctober3829 · Sep 14, 2015

Their front four is awesome, but with the Patriots' versatility they'll find a way to exploit something. If they want to double Gronk, Chandler will be open. If they want to play zone and flood the middle, they can flex out Gronk or put him in motion so he gets in a favorable position on the outside. If they want to go nickel most of the time, then Blount will be unleashed. Brady averaged under 2 seconds in getting the ball out of his hands on Thursday so I don't think the pass rush will affect Brady. Rex's defense is really effective when they have a secondary who can cover man to man. It's all well and good if they have Revis and Cromartie in their primes, but this Buffalo defense does not. It will be a close game on Sunday as I do think they have a good team, but the Patriots will expose their weaknesses.

jsinger121 · Sep 14, 2015

Use the game plan against the Lions that neutralized a good front 4.

RG33 · Sep 14, 2015

The Jets beat a shitty team. They will have a solid defense (Cromartie injury not withstanding) and a good running game, but teams with solid defenses and good running games in the 2015 NFL usually win 6-8 games. The Bills have what could be an elite type of defense if they stay healthy, but I just can't put a lot of faith in Tyrod Taylor being your QB. Rex is a good motivator as others have said, and can game-plan a QB with the best of them, but I just don't see how the Bills score points consistently. Again, 6-8 win team in my opinion, with maybe some breaks that can get them win 9 or 10.

I think Miami will be the toughest "out" for the Patriots. They are legit from top-to-bottom, have the best QB in the division not named Brady, and a pretty tough home-field advantage against everybody, including the Patriots. I could see Miami winning 10 or 11 games, and giving the Patriots a run for their money.

It should be an exciting year in the AFC East for the first time in a long time. I look forward to the naysayers coming up with another reason besides "your division sucks" and "you cheat" as to why the Patriots run of dominance will continue.

GregHarris · Sep 14, 2015

I don't know if it's "wide open" but it will certainly be more competitive. The key thing being how the division plays itself. Miami got close last year only to lose key games against both Buffalo and the Jets. Buffalo was a little better, sweeping the Jets but splitting with Miami and getting a gimmie against Jimmy G when it didn't matter.

The team that will give the Pats a real run will be the one who figures out how to maximize their wins against the other divisional opponents. If it's Buffalo, so be it. Go 5-1 in the division if you want it because 3-3 isn't going to cut it.

Edit: Not too impressed with Miami having trouble with a potential 5 win team either.

mauf · Sep 14, 2015

RGREELEY33 said:
The Jets beat a shitty team. They will have a solid defense (Cromartie injury not withstanding) and a good running game, but teams with solid defenses and good running games in the 2015 NFL usually win 6-8 games. The Bills have what could be an elite type of defense if they stay healthy, but I just can't put a lot of faith in Tyrod Taylor being your QB. Rex is a good motivator as others have said, and can game-plan a QB with the best of them, but I just don't see how the Bills score points consistently. Again, 6-8 win team in my opinion, with maybe some breaks that can get them win 9 or 10.

I think Miami will be the toughest "out" for the Patriots. They are legit from top-to-bottom, have the best QB in the division not named Brady, and a pretty tough home-field advantage against everybody, including the Patriots. I could see Miami winning 10 or 11 games, and giving the Patriots a run for their money.

It should be an exciting year in the AFC East for the first time in a long time. I look forward to the naysayers coming up with another reason besides "your division sucks" and "you cheat" as to why the Patriots run of dominance will continue.

I agree that we didn't learn much yesterday about the Jets or the Dolphins -- both won games they were supposed to win, and although the Jets won decisively, they did so because the Browns self-destructed (5 turnovers, including 4 lost fumbles).

The Bills' win was much more impressive. Moreover, the 2014 Bills had 9.6 pythagorean wins and played the league's 4th toughest schedule -- they were an above-average team by any measure. Maybe the coaching change will turn out to be a negative, and maybe Tyrod Taylor won't be able to replicate Kyle Orton's middling performance at QB, but there were a lot of reasons to think the Bills were the second-best team in the division before yesterday, and they certainly didn't do anything to make me doubt that.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Sep 14, 2015

The Jets are a mediocre football team. If everything breaks right for them, they might luck into 9-7 and a playoff birth but I don't see them as a relevant contender for the division.

I think the Patriots are favorites otherwise but the Bills and Dolphins each have a legitimate shot. Injuries are likely to play a huge role. While that is always true in the NFL, it seems to me that both the Bills and Dolphins are particularly sensitive to injury luck because their depth is questionable. If either of them can ride the high side of injury variance, I think they'll give the Patriots a serious run.

glennhoffmania · Sep 14, 2015

Miami seems to have a tough schedule. They may only have one potentially easy home game- Houston. Baltimore at home and at SD could both easily be losses. I could see them going 2-0 and then being a below .500 team the rest of the way. At NE, Buffalo, Philly, NY and SD will all be tough. I think an 8-8 season is certainly possible.

nothumb · Sep 14, 2015

glennhoffmania said:
Miami seems to have a tough schedule. They may only have one potentially easy home game- Houston. Baltimore at home and at SD could both easily be losses. I could see them going 2-0 and then being a below .500 team the rest of the way. At NE, Buffalo, Philly, NY and SD will all be tough. I think an 8-8 season is certainly possible.

I agree and I like that our game at MIA is in January. I think it's likely that when we wrap up against the Jets and Fins they are both out of it.

Buffalo is the team that could give us a run for it. They have a great defense and some upside in offense relative to last year. We get them on the road next week at what is probably a better time for them, all things considered. That said, Rex teams can usually be counted on for a few bonehead losses in games they should win. So who knows.

Mugsy's Jock · Sep 14, 2015

Do think the AFC East will probably have the best last-place team in the NFL, which is one good indicator of "most competitive".

mauf · Sep 14, 2015

Mugsys Jock said:
Do think the AFC East will probably have the best last-place team in the NFL, which is one good indicator of "most competitive".

I think the Bears (or Vikings) are likely to be better than the Jets, but you make a good point about the lack of a doormat in the division.

Al Zarilla · Sep 15, 2015

maufman said:
I think the Bears (or Vikings) are likely to be better than the Jets, but you make a good point about the lack of a doormat in the division.

The Vikings looked like pure garbage last night. Only one game though. One of our posters said he saw them as a fringe playoff candidate. Was that because AP is back? He looked rusty last night, to give him an excuse. Probably harder to compare bottom type teams to decide who's poorer than top teams to decide who's best.

tims4wins · Sep 15, 2015

FWIW, 538 sees the AFC East as the best team in the NFL, with 37.0 projected wins. Next highest is the AFCN at 30.7

It projects the Pats at 11.6, Bills at 9.6, Phins at 8.1, Jets at 7.7

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/

tims4wins · Sep 20, 2015

Wide open

Helmet Head · Sep 20, 2015

Every QB besides Brady has sucked in this division for a decade plus. After today, I can't help but feel that hasn't changed.

luckiestman · Sep 20, 2015

maufman said:
I think the Bears (or Vikings) are likely to be better than the Jets, but you make a good point about the lack of a doormat in the division.

Jets are going to be second place in the division. Stop hating

The AFC East - 2015 - This Year's Most Competitive Division?

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