Not really dinging him. Just noting what he has to do to be a key player instead of a role player.
Tatum got the bag(5 years, $195 million)
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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If Grant Williams becomes Dray, Nesmith is a corner sniper, and Kemba never plays another NBA game, we look like the 15-16 Warriors.
People are dramatically underrating how good Tatum, Brown, and Smart are, both individually and collectively, and that doesn’t even account for Kemba.
Yeah, I don’t think people really have internalized how close this team, with gimpy Kemba and no Hayward, was to winning the 2020 title. Probably a Bam-stopper away. They match up better with LAL than Miami did; probably would have had a 30%+ chance in that series.
All of that is to agree: Tatum/Brown/Smart are really good already, young, likely to improve, and that isn’t yet priced in.
young, improving and playoff-tested
Smart: 62 playoff games
Tatum: 45 playoff games
Brown: 50+ games played
Smart: 62 playoff games
Tatum: 45 playoff games
Brown: 50+ games played
This is a great call out. They have been to and won a lot of playoff series for their ages. No finals appearances yet, and they have a lot to learn still. But they know how hard it is to get buckets and to defend in the playoffs.
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It's rare to find very young, physically growing, improving and playoff-tested. Right? Those are the ingredients to Championships. Bron, MJ, Durant - most of the greats all had to experience many playoff losses before winning the Championship.
All those 7-game/EC Final playoff games will matter a lot with JayCrew when they start peaking at 25-26yrs old
The Athletic on how the new point of emphasis on pushing off may impact Tatum.
https://theathletic.com/2258768/2020/12/17/jayson-tatum-boston-celtics-rules/?source=user_shared_article
https://theathletic.com/2258768/2020/12/17/jayson-tatum-boston-celtics-rules/?source=user_shared_article
This is interesting because in the practice video that someone posted in one of the threads, Cs are running a drill that has them practicing getting into the body of defenders with their forearm when they drive. (Which is something I never learned to do so I was very interested in watching that.) Given the new point of emphasis, I am speculating that they did this drill to be conscious about their off-arm.
I am generally an Ainge fan though I know he isn't perfect. But let's be thankful for his decision making in 2016/2017.
2016 he had the 3rd pick and picked a definite non-consensus Jaylen Brown. The next 3 picks were Dragan bender, Kris Dunn, and Buddy Hield.
2017 he had the number 1 pick, didn't pick the consensus number 1 and ended up with by far the best player and another 1st rounder. The top 4 picks were Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Tatum, and Josh Jackson.
I'm actually not a big GWill fan, Langford and Edwards have been underwhelming. Who knows about Pritchard and Nesmith. But these decisions pale in comparison to Brown/Tatum.
2016 he had the 3rd pick and picked a definite non-consensus Jaylen Brown. The next 3 picks were Dragan bender, Kris Dunn, and Buddy Hield.
2017 he had the number 1 pick, didn't pick the consensus number 1 and ended up with by far the best player and another 1st rounder. The top 4 picks were Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Tatum, and Josh Jackson.
I'm actually not a big GWill fan, Langford and Edwards have been underwhelming. Who knows about Pritchard and Nesmith. But these decisions pale in comparison to Brown/Tatum.
Yeah he did pretty well with Marcus at #6 in 2014 too.
His record is mixed with lower and non-lottery picks, but he has nailed the ones that you have to nail.
Brown is better but I think Hield would have been pretty good here.
The Tatum thing is super lucky.
Why is Tatum super lucky?
He had the #1 pick, didn't take the consensus #1, and actually traded down to get an extra pick while taking Tatum.
Super risky, but hard to say it's lucky.
I think he meant with respect to who the other guys drafted around him were, not the decision process.
Rozier looks like a hit. Wonder where BOS would be if Kemba had decided to re-sign with CHA and BOS had to re-sign TRoz.
Rozier and Olynyk were hits for slot too definitely. DA has mixed results on late/post lottery.
Great question. I hadn't thought much about it until Kemba's knee presented a problem.
Edit: removed unintentional disagreement with myself
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I can't quite parse what the first sentence means, but I would say Olynyk and Rozier were both good values for their draft slots.
No coffee today yet, so sorry if that was awkward.
We agree. KO and TR were good values for draft slot. Ainge has a few nice hits in the late lottery and beyond. But he has a bunch of misses too and none of those Giannis/Jokic finds. It's mixed.
We benefit greatly as fans for his damn solid record on the high picks though. Sure, Hield or Murray wouldn't have been terrible either, but Bender and Dunn were grabbed right after. And there was a bunch of ways to fuck up the Tatum draft, but he didn't.
Main point is that a spotty record on meh slots is fine if you nailed all of the good slots, and he clearly did. Missing on the latter is how you end up sucking forever.
Edit: corrected my confusing word in prior post
I don’t think we would’ve paid Rozier in that scenario, but the answer to your question is significantly worse. Don’t let one game fool you. Rozier is a perfectly fine player, but his defense slipped a lot last year whether as a result of system or offensive load. He’s not a very good creator for teammates, so while he’s a pretty good scorer, his overall offensive game isn’t anything special. Even if Kemba is permanently diminished, he will almost certainly be significantly better than Rozier once he’s back on the court.
As was Avery Bradley. An argument could be made for Jared Sullinger as well. Separately Ainge was pretty good at getting value in his first draft go round in 2004 picking up Al Jefferson at 15, Delonte West at 24 and Tony Allen at 25. Unfortunately draft results in the subsequent five years were not good. In general Danny has experienced mixed results landing value with late first round picks which is probably true league wide for GMs.
My memory might be shot but I don't recall TRoz getting any other credible offers. I think they probably would have signed him to a one-year deal. I agree that healthy Kemba is way better than TRoz but I'm not sure about gimpy Kemba after defense is taken into account. Plus they would have had salary cap flexibility to bring in someone else as backup or competition.
While semi-interesting to think about, but certainly understand why DA jumped on Kemba when CHA wouldn't pay him.
As was E'twaun Moore. And I can't remember if DA picked him, but Dwight Powell also performed well for his draft slot.
We've been through this before. DA does at least an above-average job getting value out of later round draft pics. I mean if you assign Rajan Rondo to him, I believe that's more than a lot of GMs ever get out of post-lottery picks.
Good point on Rondo and I agree with your conclusion. Moore was a 2nd round pick and my comments were specific to late 1st round picks however an argument could be made that there is little that differentiates late 1sts from 2nd round picks.
Did he have to use win shares?
Problem with that is a lesser player starring on a trash team is going to look better than a better guy on a contender.
This is how you get results like this:
That said, Toronto at the top passes the smell test.
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This is a better attempt at this particular data problem than I have seen elsewhere, but ultimately we would have to see everyone's draft boards to get the full picture which is sadly not possible. If GM's decided to unleash that data (from, say, 10 years back to avoid insulting anyone) it would be awesome to see as fans.
As with any study (you should be telling me this given your background) there are some flaws in the design including the underlying assumptions. That said, the correlation with winning suggests its is on the right path and, as you note, the overall findings are consistent with what many people would say off the top of their heads.
The problem with evaluating any front office moves in isolation is that the context is important. As we have noted here, someone like Ainge has a lot more latitude than a less experienced GM/Front Office type but even then, he has constraints related to where the Celtics are in their development curve - presumably the team is selecting differently given how close they are to contending versus a team that is middling or doesn't have top end talent (I know this impacts where they draft too but in my example, compare the current C's team to a veteran team that also went to the ECF but then lost its top end talent - presumably the latter scenario opens up other paths in the draft).
I know its a little silly to dunk on random twitter guys but I think we have shared solidarity over some Dean Demakis takes and I found this blurb today that gave me a smile:
Now to sprinkle this post with some content, has he made more than two stepback/sidestep threes this season? They have not looked good so far.
Dean is an example of someone who falls in love with certain players and there is no way they are wrong about that player. Any other player will suck.
One could make a good argument the Celtics got the best player 2 drafts in a row.
One could make a good argument the Celtics got the best player 2 drafts in a row.
On his way to a 2nd team all NBA season.
I love the way he’s taking care of the ball after the rough first four games. 14 in his first four games, just 4 in the last four games. And that’s with teams game planning to shut him down and make him rush and make bad decisions.
Averaging 26/8/4/1/1 after tonight, with a 59% TS and +8 net rating. Career high in assist to turnover, career low in turnover percentage. Dude looks like a championship level superstar, and he doesn’t turn 23 for a couple months.
I love the way he’s taking care of the ball after the rough first four games. 14 in his first four games, just 4 in the last four games. And that’s with teams game planning to shut him down and make him rush and make bad decisions.
Averaging 26/8/4/1/1 after tonight, with a 59% TS and +8 net rating. Career high in assist to turnover, career low in turnover percentage. Dude looks like a championship level superstar, and he doesn’t turn 23 for a couple months.
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How do we know this season does not play out just like last season? That is, he is having his early season slump right now? Could he crack first team? I guess he'd have to move Lebron or Giannis off, and beat Kawhi as well. I think it's doable for him.
If putting up these numbers is his early season slump, watch the hell out. He’s already putting up elite numbers, but it feels like he’s just figuring it out, which is scary for the league. He’s right around his career shooting splits too, so it’s nothing unsustainable.
Its going to be such a tragedy when he's taken from us too soon at the tender age of 19 in 70 years.
I strongly disagree, but I’m not going to turn it into a competition between the two lol.
I don't care who ends up best; I was just riffing on Kperk. Hopefully they can trade off MVP awards every other year.
Hell yeah, cool by me. The Tatum being 19 thing has somewhat made a joke of it, but what he’s doing at his age is pretty freaking rare. The fact that he’s a year and a half younger than Jaylen (who is young as hell himself) is damn exciting.
Good article by Jay King, this site is very worth the subscription price. I've attached and taken a small % of the article that focuses on Tatum.
Besides the Toronto game, it feels like JT has had a slow start, maybe not?
https://theathletic.com/2304627/2021/01/06/payton-pritchard-celtics-jayson-tatum/
Tatum’s on-off splits have become one of the world’s great marvels. Since his rookie season, he has landed in the 91st percentile or better each year in efficiency differential, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Celtics have been significantly better on each side of the court with him in the game during each of his three-plus seasons. And he looks ready to continue the pattern.
Though it’s far too early to be making most judgments about on-off numbers, it’s crazy that the Celtics have been 22.5 points per 100 possessions better with Tatum on the court so far even though he has been part of a doomed starting lineup. Last season’s “Tatum + bench = gold” formula has come through again. Over 91 minutes without Brown on the court, Tatum has totaled a ridiculous 94 points. That averages out to 37.1 points per 36 minutes. The Celtics have outscored their opponents by 15.2 points per 100 possessions during those stretches. They don’t need overwhelming talent next to Tatum when he’s on the court. He has proven that over the last season-plus. His lineup numbers with basically anyone in the second unit are astronomically high so far.
But man, the Celtics have been bad during Tatum’s 100 minutes on the bench, at minus-14.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s lottery team type of bad. Worst team in the league type of bad. Blow it up and fire everybody type of bad. The Celtics can do better during those situations, but will mostly be aiming to survive while Tatum’s out, especially during the rest of Walker’s absence.
Besides the Toronto game, it feels like JT has had a slow start, maybe not?
https://theathletic.com/2304627/2021/01/06/payton-pritchard-celtics-jayson-tatum/
Tatum’s on-off splits have become one of the world’s great marvels. Since his rookie season, he has landed in the 91st percentile or better each year in efficiency differential, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Celtics have been significantly better on each side of the court with him in the game during each of his three-plus seasons. And he looks ready to continue the pattern.
Though it’s far too early to be making most judgments about on-off numbers, it’s crazy that the Celtics have been 22.5 points per 100 possessions better with Tatum on the court so far even though he has been part of a doomed starting lineup. Last season’s “Tatum + bench = gold” formula has come through again. Over 91 minutes without Brown on the court, Tatum has totaled a ridiculous 94 points. That averages out to 37.1 points per 36 minutes. The Celtics have outscored their opponents by 15.2 points per 100 possessions during those stretches. They don’t need overwhelming talent next to Tatum when he’s on the court. He has proven that over the last season-plus. His lineup numbers with basically anyone in the second unit are astronomically high so far.
But man, the Celtics have been bad during Tatum’s 100 minutes on the bench, at minus-14.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s lottery team type of bad. Worst team in the league type of bad. Blow it up and fire everybody type of bad. The Celtics can do better during those situations, but will mostly be aiming to survive while Tatum’s out, especially during the rest of Walker’s absence.
Only 8 games in, so SSS warning, but...
26.3 points (career high is 23.4)
7.6 rebounds (career high is 7.0)
4.0 assists (career high is 3.0)
1.0 blocks (career high is 0.9)
54.8% eFG (career high is 53.8%)
87.9% FT (career high is 85.5%)
26.3 points (career high is 23.4)
7.6 rebounds (career high is 7.0)
4.0 assists (career high is 3.0)
1.0 blocks (career high is 0.9)
54.8% eFG (career high is 53.8%)
87.9% FT (career high is 85.5%)
Was the same case last as well too, he was the only player where the team had a net rating when he sat. The team consistently has fallen off a cliff when he sits, especially defensively.
Of course it will normalize some, but even last year they were 11 points better with him on the court, than off.
Oh, I am not saying they won't be worse off. Of course they win. I'm saying the numbers will not be as bad, simply because we'll be adding more talent later in season. Hopefully.
If that -14.5 improves to -9 that's helpful.
I really hope Danny gets them a veteran wing, I like Romeo and Nesmith longterm, but you can’t depend much on them this season.
Even if they both turn out to be good, they are both a little undersized no?