That’s a really insightful and interesting article. Thank you for sharing.
That’s a really insightful and interesting article. Thank you for sharing.
I had the exact same response.As a reflection of how this season is going, when I saw this thread get bumped, I figured he was going on the IL.
Houck in the 1st round and Cutter in the 16th from Dombrowski. Also Bello was signed that summer. So the top three pitchers currently all brought in during his regime yet they needed to bring in Bloom to “rebuild” the farm.
Dombrowski wasn't fired because the farm system was light or weak. In fact, the people in charge of drafting and player development under Dombrowski remained there under Bloom and some even remain there now (or have been promoted) under Breslow, so apparently the powers that be thought something was working on that front.Houck in the 1st round and Cutter in the 16th from Dombrowski. Also Bello was signed that summer. So the top three pitchers currently all brought in during his regime yet they needed to bring in Bloom to “rebuild” the farm.
Kopech for Sale was a fantastic trade that you would do every time and twice on Sunday. Espinoza pitched 7 games in the MLB and had a ridiculous high BA ranking based on 40 innings of rookie ball when he was 17. It is weird you point out two good trades by Dombowski as negatives especially with two guys that contributed to WS win (Drew was way better in 2017 obviously).Dombrowski wasn't fired because the farm system was light or weak. In fact, the people in charge of drafting and player development under Dombrowski remained there under Bloom and some even remain there now (or have been promoted) under Breslow, so apparently the powers that be thought something was working on that front.
SoxProspects listed Houck at #7, Bello at #20, and Crawford at #29 on their list in September 2019 (when Dombrowski was fired). I don't think anyone is going to argue that they were/are Bloom guys. The only credit Bloom gets for them, and this is still important, is that he held on them rather than trading them for short term fixes (in the vein of Espinoza for Pomeranz or Kopech for Sale).
Where did I say they were negatives? I was just pointing out that Bloom could have moved any or all of them during his tenure and did not, and now it's paying off. By no means was that intended to be a slight toward Dombrowski or those trades.Kopech for Sale was a fantastic trade that you would do every time and twice on Sunday. Espinoza pitched 7 games in the MLB and had a ridiculous high BA ranking based on 40 innings of rookie ball when he was 17. It is weird you point out two good trades by Dombowski as negatives especially with two guys that contributed to WS win (Drew was way better in 2017 obviously).
Bloom sure does get a ton of credit for doing nothing.
Houck is pitching great once they great reduced his use of the cutter and four seam fastball. The slider has always been his killer pitch. Now he is locating his sinker and slider, and keeping his split finger in the zone, he has greatly reduced his walks. Between the slider, sinker (which he throws high in the zone away from where his slider locates), and split (which once again he is throwing within the strike zone instead of the dirt because the sinker sets it up well) he is still getting good whiff rates but does not need to move the ball out of the zone to keep hitters off guard. Hitters have to swing defensively against him and get awful contact. It is why he is pitching way further into games.
...and any attempt to credit Dombrowski for drafting those guys must be weighed against the consideration that he wished to continue his spend both money and prospects to "win now." The blind squirrel may be able to find the nut, but it takes a watchful squirrel not to lose it to one of his fellows.Where did I say they were negatives? I was just pointing out that Bloom could have moved any or all of them during his tenure and did not, and now it's paying off. By no means was that intended to be a slight toward Dombrowski or those trades.
And another thread turns to shit.Houck in the 1st round and Cutter in the 16th from Dombrowski. Also Bello was signed that summer. So the top three pitchers currently all brought in during his regime yet they needed to bring in Bloom to “rebuild” the farm.
Kopech for Sale was a fantastic trade that you would do every time and twice on Sunday. Espinoza pitched 7 games in the MLB and had a ridiculous high BA ranking based on 40 innings of rookie ball when he was 17. It is weird you point out two good trades by Dombowski as negatives especially with two guys that contributed to WS win (Drew was way better in 2017 obviously).
Bloom sure does get a ton of credit for doing nothing.
Houck is pitching great once they great reduced his use of the cutter and four seam fastball. The slider has always been his killer pitch. Now he is locating his sinker and slider, and keeping his split finger in the zone, he has greatly reduced his walks. Between the slider, sinker (which he throws high in the zone away from where his slider locates), and split (which once again he is throwing within the strike zone instead of the dirt because the sinker sets it up well) he is still getting good whiff rates but does not need to move the ball out of the zone to keep hitters off guard. Hitters have to swing defensively against him and get awful contact. It is why he is pitching way further into games.
He's throwing the split in the zone because it's not a split anymore. It's a changeup. Here's an excellent breakdown of how he's using it:Houck is pitching great once they great reduced his use of the cutter and four seam fastball. The slider has always been his killer pitch. Now he is locating his sinker and slider, and keeping his split finger in the zone, he has greatly reduced his walks. Between the slider, sinker (which he throws high in the zone away from where his slider locates), and split (which once again he is throwing within the strike zone instead of the dirt because the sinker sets it up well) he is still getting good whiff rates but does not need to move the ball out of the zone to keep hitters off guard. Hitters have to swing defensively against him and get awful contact. It is why he is pitching way further into games.
He’s also commanding the pitch better, with 41% of his pitches making it into the strike zone, while the strike rate has also improved from 53% to 62%. Normally, with a small sample, I’d chalk the newfound command of the pitch to a fluke, but because he’s transitioned to a more traditional changeup grip, I believe the improvement is legitimate. Although it’s early in the season, his changeup has been his most thrown pitch to lefties, representing a newfound confidence in the pitch. Many, myself included, have cited Houck’s lack of a strike-getting pitch to throw to lefties as an impediment to his success as a starter. Now, he may have found a consistent offspeed pitch to use both in and out of the zone, get strikes, and take control of at-bats where he’s on the wrong side of the platoon split.
40 k in 32.2 ip is 11.2 K/9, not 8.3 K/9. Maybe that’s the difference?Houck's game log...
6.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 10 k (W)
6.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 7 k (W)
5.2 ip, 12 h, 7 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 2 k (L)
9.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 9 k (W)
6.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 4 k (L)
6.2 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k (ND)
TOT: 39.1 ip, 31 h, 10 r, 7 er, 5 bb, 41 k, 1.60 era, 0.92 whip, 9.4 k/9, 3-2 record
Current AL ranks (among qualified pitchers):
ERA: #3 (1.60)
Wins: #4 (3)
IP: #2 (39.1)
K: #3 (41)
K/9: #18 (9.4)
WHIP: #3 (0.92)
WAR: #6 (1.4)
I have a question about this WAR ranking. Houck is at 1.4 WAR while Blanco of Hou is at 1.9 WAR. But here's a comparison of the two:
Houck: 39.1 ip, 31 h, 7 er, 5 bb, 41 k, 1.60 era, 0.92 whip, 9.4 k/9
Blanco: 32.2 ip, 16 h, 6 er, 14 bb, 40 k, 1.65 era, 0.92 whip, 8.3 k/9
So Houck has pitched more innings, has the same whip, a better ERA, better K/9, but has a 0.5 fewer WAR? How does that make any sense at all?
Oh I misread. Yeah but ok, so here's the next question. When it comes to offensive players, we often hear that an out is an out, and there's no difference between a strikeout and a popup. So HOW a hitter makes an out really doesn't impact their WAR at all. But for pitchers, strikeouts DO impact their WAR? Why, if outs are just outs?40 k in 32.2 ip is 11.2 K/9, not 8.3 K/9. Maybe that’s the difference?
You're doing bWAR? Because by fWAR Houck leads Blanco 1.4 to 0.6. bWAR take Runs Allowed into its formula, while fWAR takes FIP. Houck has 10 runs allowed, though only 7 earned, while Blanco has 6 runs allowed. That's likely accounting for the difference. fWAR being more predictive and bWAR more descriptive/outcome based.Houck's game log...
6.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 10 k (W)
6.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 7 k (W)
5.2 ip, 12 h, 7 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 2 k (L)
9.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 9 k (W)
6.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 4 k (L)
6.2 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k (ND)
TOT: 39.1 ip, 31 h, 10 r, 7 er, 5 bb, 41 k, 1.60 era, 0.92 whip, 9.4 k/9, 3-2 record
Current AL ranks (among qualified pitchers):
ERA: #3 (1.60)
Wins: #4 (3)
IP: #2 (39.1)
K: #3 (41)
K/9: #18 (9.4)
WHIP: #3 (0.92)
WAR: #6 (1.4)
I have a question about this WAR ranking. Houck is at 1.4 WAR while Blanco of Hou is at 1.9 WAR. But here's a comparison of the two:
Houck: 39.1 ip, 31 h, 7 er, 5 bb, 41 k, 1.60 era, 0.92 whip, 9.4 k/9
Blanco: 32.2 ip, 16 h, 6 er, 14 bb, 40 k, 1.65 era, 0.92 whip, 8.3 k/9
So Houck has pitched more innings, has the same whip, a better ERA, better K/9, but has a 0.5 fewer WAR? How does that make any sense at all?
I used the WAR listed on ESPN.com. Not sure what they use.You're doing bWAR? Because by fWAR Houck leads Blanco 1.4 to 0.6. bWAR take Runs Allowed into its formula, while fWAR takes FIP. Houck has 10 runs allowed, though only 7 earned, while Blanco has 6 runs allowed. That's likely accounting for the difference. fWAR being more predictive and bWAR more descriptive/outcome based.
Seems like the RA9def might be the difference. Houck's is 0.13, whereas Blanco's is -0.38.Houck's game log...
6.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 10 k (W)
6.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 7 k (W)
5.2 ip, 12 h, 7 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 2 k (L)
9.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 9 k (W)
6.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 4 k (L)
6.2 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k (ND)
TOT: 39.1 ip, 31 h, 10 r, 7 er, 5 bb, 41 k, 1.60 era, 0.92 whip, 9.4 k/9, 3-2 record
Current AL ranks (among qualified pitchers):
ERA: #3 (1.60)
Wins: #4 (3)
IP: #2 (39.1)
K: #3 (41)
K/9: #18 (9.4)
WHIP: #3 (0.92)
WAR: #6 (1.4)
I have a question about this WAR ranking. Houck is at 1.4 WAR while Blanco of Hou is at 1.9 WAR. But here's a comparison of the two:
Houck: 39.1 ip, 31 h, 7 er, 5 bb, 41 k, 1.60 era, 0.92 whip, 9.4 k/9
Blanco: 32.2 ip, 16 h, 6 er, 14 bb, 40 k, 1.65 era, 0.92 whip, 8.3 k/9
So Houck has pitched more innings, has the same whip, a better ERA, better K/9, but has a 0.5 fewer WAR? How does that make any sense at all?
So there's this guy named Voros McCracken, and ~25 years ago he came up with an idea called DIPS, or defense-independent pitching statistics. This is the basis for a bunch of statistics like FIP and xFIP. McCracken observed (not for the first time) that many of the then-common pitching statistics, notably Wins and ERA, really recorded the efforts of a pitcher's team (and the official scorer) more than that pitcher.Oh I misread. Yeah but ok, so here's the next question. When it comes to offensive players, we often hear that an out is an out, and there's no difference between a strikeout and a popup. So HOW a hitter makes an out really doesn't impact their WAR at all. But for pitchers, strikeouts DO impact their WAR? Why, if outs are just outs?
But even so...a full have WAR more just because he has a better k/9 than Houck, even though Houck has pitched more innings and has more overall strikeouts and a better ERA? I don't understand the formula.