Spurs 22/23: So, do we have a manager?
- Thread starter DJnVa
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First up, a capital injection:
Tottenham Hotspur's majority shareholder ENIC injects £150m into club - The Athletic
Tottenham Hotspur's majority shareholder ENIC injects £150m into club - The Athletic
So what's everyone's take on summer transfer biz? I'm going to use Euros for all values.
Gollini's the only one on an expiring contract, and he gone. Fraser Foster of Southampton is rumored to be the new backup. At Foster's expected cost, we could also consider Fabianski (WHU, unlikely as he's a starter ATM), Sergi Asenjo (Villarreal), Lecomte (Oblak's backup at Atleti), Diego Lopez (Espanyol), Sirigu (Genoa), Pepe Reina (Lazio), Ulreich (Neuer's backup at Bayern), all of which are available as FA. Onana (Ajax) is rumored to be signed to Inter. Walter Benitez (Nice), Sam Johnstone (West Brom), and Ospina (Napoli) are other options.
Pape Sarr will join the club (back from loan technically).
For outgoings, I'm sure we'll be looking for buyers for Tanguy and GLC. TM has Tanguy listed at $35M and GLC at $22M. I think GLC goes for closer to 30M to a club in Spain, but I'm not sure Spurs will sell Tanguy for less than $40M. The problem is that his wages are so high that he's that group of players that can only realistically be sold to ~10 clubs. I think Spurs will be keen to subsidize his wages for another loan to see if he can reestablish some of his value.
I imagine that Bergy and Winks will ask out. Bergy's listed at $18M and I think he goes for closer to $25M. I still wish Conte would've played him more, as there aren't many players at his wages that could reasonably backup anyone in our forward line. Winks is listed at $17M and I think Spurs will easily move him for $10-15M.
Then there's the group of players that Conte showed some confidence in, but may get moved as they aren't good fits--Dav, Emerson, and Lucas. Davinson is listed at $30M and I think he moves for $15-20M. Emerson is listed at $25M and I think he gets moved for ~$15M. Lucas is listed at $20M and I think he also goes for $10M-15M.
Gil returns from loan, but I see him going right back out on loan back to Spain, if not sold outright. He's listed at $25M and a loan seems like the right move as his value could explode with a good season.
Madrid has a buyback option on Reguilon that must be exercised this summer for $50M and I don't see that happening. Mendy is terrific at LB. I think he gets another year with Conte.
Conservatively, I think we collect $90M in transfer fees:
GLC - 25M
Bergy - 20M
Winks - 10M
Dav/Emerson/Lucas (2/3 go) - 35M
Not sure how we manage cash flow, but we should also be free from at least half of Tanguy's wages.
So for the fun part, incomings, how would you identify our priorities? I'd say RWB, LWB, LCB, CMF, and CF are the needs, and I'd prioritize them as follows: RWB, LCB, CMF, CF, LWB.
At RWB, the names that may make some sense include Porro (Sporting), Otavio (Porto), Olise (Palace), Baku (Wolfsburg), and Silas (Stuttgart).
LCB is unique position in 3ATB systems and Ben Davies established himself as starter quality. Nevertheless, we've already been heavily linked with Bastoni. I'm sure we'll go after Kounde again. Maybe Skriniar again too, de Ligt??
CMF, old friend Eriksen makes a lot of sense. Frenkie de Jong is very much on the market but would cost a ton, Milinkovic-Savic and Barrella would make sense as Serie A guys, maybe Goretzka wants more PT (?), and there's a slew of other potential targets.
CF is a backup spot and I'm wondering if we could nab Belotti from Torino on a free. He's 28, and just came off a Serie A campaign with his fewest goals (8g, 1a) in a season since 14/15, but also played in only 22 matches. That would be IDEAL. I wouldn't mind Cavani on a free. There's been some smoke with Gabi Jesus. Origi can be had on a free. I have to imagine Jovic would be available on a subsidized deal. Cutrone is another Serie A striker that could be had on a free. Poulsen at RBL would be a great pickup IMO. Maybe Juve want to sell to us again and let us give a shot to Keane? Dolberg from Nice is a nice player.
Too early frankly to say whether I have any of this right, but I love the summer transfer window and this one should be super active for Spurs!
Gollini's the only one on an expiring contract, and he gone. Fraser Foster of Southampton is rumored to be the new backup. At Foster's expected cost, we could also consider Fabianski (WHU, unlikely as he's a starter ATM), Sergi Asenjo (Villarreal), Lecomte (Oblak's backup at Atleti), Diego Lopez (Espanyol), Sirigu (Genoa), Pepe Reina (Lazio), Ulreich (Neuer's backup at Bayern), all of which are available as FA. Onana (Ajax) is rumored to be signed to Inter. Walter Benitez (Nice), Sam Johnstone (West Brom), and Ospina (Napoli) are other options.
Pape Sarr will join the club (back from loan technically).
For outgoings, I'm sure we'll be looking for buyers for Tanguy and GLC. TM has Tanguy listed at $35M and GLC at $22M. I think GLC goes for closer to 30M to a club in Spain, but I'm not sure Spurs will sell Tanguy for less than $40M. The problem is that his wages are so high that he's that group of players that can only realistically be sold to ~10 clubs. I think Spurs will be keen to subsidize his wages for another loan to see if he can reestablish some of his value.
I imagine that Bergy and Winks will ask out. Bergy's listed at $18M and I think he goes for closer to $25M. I still wish Conte would've played him more, as there aren't many players at his wages that could reasonably backup anyone in our forward line. Winks is listed at $17M and I think Spurs will easily move him for $10-15M.
Then there's the group of players that Conte showed some confidence in, but may get moved as they aren't good fits--Dav, Emerson, and Lucas. Davinson is listed at $30M and I think he moves for $15-20M. Emerson is listed at $25M and I think he gets moved for ~$15M. Lucas is listed at $20M and I think he also goes for $10M-15M.
Gil returns from loan, but I see him going right back out on loan back to Spain, if not sold outright. He's listed at $25M and a loan seems like the right move as his value could explode with a good season.
Madrid has a buyback option on Reguilon that must be exercised this summer for $50M and I don't see that happening. Mendy is terrific at LB. I think he gets another year with Conte.
Conservatively, I think we collect $90M in transfer fees:
GLC - 25M
Bergy - 20M
Winks - 10M
Dav/Emerson/Lucas (2/3 go) - 35M
Not sure how we manage cash flow, but we should also be free from at least half of Tanguy's wages.
So for the fun part, incomings, how would you identify our priorities? I'd say RWB, LWB, LCB, CMF, and CF are the needs, and I'd prioritize them as follows: RWB, LCB, CMF, CF, LWB.
At RWB, the names that may make some sense include Porro (Sporting), Otavio (Porto), Olise (Palace), Baku (Wolfsburg), and Silas (Stuttgart).
LCB is unique position in 3ATB systems and Ben Davies established himself as starter quality. Nevertheless, we've already been heavily linked with Bastoni. I'm sure we'll go after Kounde again. Maybe Skriniar again too, de Ligt??
CMF, old friend Eriksen makes a lot of sense. Frenkie de Jong is very much on the market but would cost a ton, Milinkovic-Savic and Barrella would make sense as Serie A guys, maybe Goretzka wants more PT (?), and there's a slew of other potential targets.
CF is a backup spot and I'm wondering if we could nab Belotti from Torino on a free. He's 28, and just came off a Serie A campaign with his fewest goals (8g, 1a) in a season since 14/15, but also played in only 22 matches. That would be IDEAL. I wouldn't mind Cavani on a free. There's been some smoke with Gabi Jesus. Origi can be had on a free. I have to imagine Jovic would be available on a subsidized deal. Cutrone is another Serie A striker that could be had on a free. Poulsen at RBL would be a great pickup IMO. Maybe Juve want to sell to us again and let us give a shot to Keane? Dolberg from Nice is a nice player.
Too early frankly to say whether I have any of this right, but I love the summer transfer window and this one should be super active for Spurs!
No idea who Spurs will sign but I think you are way too optimistic about sales. The football economy outside of England is still terrible, lots of clubs that amassed huge debts/losses over the last few years, TV deals that were negotiated downward, and now everybody looking at the very real possibility of a global recession coming soon. And there are tons of players available on frees, at bargain basement prices, or on loan. Outside of PL clubs and a handful of the very richest clubs on Europe (Real/Barca/Atleti/Bayern/PSG/Juve/Inter/BVB), the number of players bought in the last couple years for £20m or more can probably be counted on one hand and they tend to be very good young players on very affordable wages like Fikayo Tomori or Tammy Abraham. Unless you're willing to sell for very low fees, there's basically no market for players on PL wages who want to leave the PL but aren't good enough for the big clubs elsewhere. Every big club has the issue and nobody has solved it yet.
Ah, the old Joe Hart corollary. Makes sense, even with a merely rudimentary understanding of the homegrown player rule.
You may be right, but a couple of things make me think I'm not too far off. First and foremost, I never assigned a potential sale value to any player higher than their TM value, except for GLC. I just think $22M is very low, and I could see a big team in Spain or Italy investing in him. Second, even looking at only transfers from the last 2 windows shows that TM is usually pretty accurate, and if they're wrong it's because they undervalued the actual transfer value. I note that this is from looking at the most valuable transfers, but that's also what pretty much any of the Spurs outgoings will be (i.e., $10M+).
I take your point though, that we don't know how clubs will behave in THIS window, but clubs never cease to amaze me with their spending practices. And all it takes is for 1-2 clubs to adjust the bar/market, even if it's just for their peer group (domestically and/or internationally).
I mean, in retrospect do you think Zouma is worth $35M, Digne $30M, Dan James $29M, Ramsdale $29M (not being snarky), Emerson Royal $25M (Spurs are no different), etc.? There's countless other examples too. Hell, Atalanta (obviously not an EPL club) paid $20M (!) to Udinese for Musso, an Argentine keeper who's not even the best Argentine keeper. In sum, I think we're going to see transfer fees lurch upward a bit, although clubs have finally gotten smarter about free transfers, understanding the relationship between transfer fees and wages, and general wage structure better.
As for your specific point about the transfer fees in excess of $20M and how only a few clubs can afford those type of transfers, I don't disagree. But only one player I mentioned fits that description--GLC. And I do think the big clubs of the world and the middle clubs of the EPL will be interested in him. Similarly, I think lots of clubs will be interested in Bergy at $20M, and now that I think about it, I think he fetches closer to $30M as well, as he's a young versatile forward who can play in the middle (a special premium these days), and is of starter quality for the majority of clubs in the big 5.
There are definitely buyers within the PL, especially for players who are either British (James, Ramsdale, Ings) or shown the ability to thrive in the league (Zouma, Digne) but I think the issue that many clubs have, and Spurs are no exception, comes when you have non-British players that haven't done particularly well in the league and many of the players Spurs might want to sell fall into that category. PL teams are wary of them based on their league track record and can find more attractive options because they're scouting all of Europe, the players themselves often want to get out of the PL anyway, but nobody in Europe has any money except the big clubs which are shopping in a higher bracket.
Isn’t the first domino in the transfer market clarity on Contes future? The noises about him leaving have never truly gone away and they’ll affect recruitment either way.
He’s a heck of a manager and I think you’ll challenge for the league, maybe as soon as next season, if you back him and can keep that madman happy. His system needs certain players though so you really need to sort that out before making moves.
He’s a heck of a manager and I think you’ll challenge for the league, maybe as soon as next season, if you back him and can keep that madman happy. His system needs certain players though so you really need to sort that out before making moves.
This is as close as I get to a mic drop these days:
To not be a total wanker, here's some interesting business-bits from the article as well:
https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/tottenham-transfers-conte-150m-boost-b1002302.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1653484896#Echobox=1653484896
Not a huge fan of signing players that old, and I'd rather the minutes/dollars go to someone with more long-term potential. But a 2-year deal with no fee for a guy with a proven track record that Conte wants is not the worst thing in the world.
I feel like the plan is two-deep rotations at WB with an older guy who Conte knows what he’ll get from and a younger guy who can develop.
Perisic/Sess on the left, with Doherty/??? on the right.
Perisic is also a nice guy to have in the squad since he is a credible winger as well, he helps depth up front too.
Perisic/Sess on the left, with Doherty/??? on the right.
Perisic is also a nice guy to have in the squad since he is a credible winger as well, he helps depth up front too.
Also from a leadership perspective, a guy who has been around the block, played in lots of big matches, and won multiple titles could be useful for a squad that has sometimes been accused of lacking a winning mentality.
FTFY
To be serious, if the six signings + a goal keeper are Spurs / Conte connected dinosaurs like Bale, Eriksen & Perisic to go with three young players with time and room to develop, that seems like an excellent balance for making a run next year, while still still being competitive after Conte leaves in 12-24 months.
Dude played over 2600 minutes last year. I hope and expect he will be used significantly less this year. This is not the first outfield player signing I expected, but depth moves are certainly welcome considering how many matches we'll have next year. Perisic is also a hand-in-glove fit like others have mentioned, and anyone that willingly goes into a Conte system for round 2 is probably a bit batshit just like Antonioooooooooo.
https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2022/6/29/23188191/tottenham-hotspur-news-yves-bissouma-cleared-charges-sexual-assault
I'm very glad that Bissouma is no longer involved with the investigation--this signing has really cast a cloud over much of Spurs this summer.
I'm coming around on the Richarlison signing (shocker!). He's likely Kane's primary backup, and is still very capable of backing up Son as well. Have to think that when it's Son and Richy they'll be very fluid and difficult to mark. That type of system always runs the risk of the players being duplicative, but I trust Conte to make it work.
If they can nab Lenglet and a RWB, I'll be over the moon.
Richarlison is ok in the abstract, but for that amount of money I feel like Spurs should be getting someone who goes straight into the first XI. It's a lot of cash for a squad player.
From a few articles I read that is a feature not a bug. Spurs old way of doing business was only to sign guys for a lot if they were guaranteed first XI. Conte is impressing upon them that to be a "rich club" you don't play that way.
Are Spurs really a “rich club” in the way City are though? Even Liverpool is not paying 50-60m for rotation players, they’re shopping in the 35-45m bracket for guys like Diaz, Jota, and Konate.
Obviously I have my pro-Arsenal biases but for me the big issue is that Richarlison isn’t really a building block player. Kulu was a brilliant transfer because he elevated the first eleven right away and he’s a guy who you might be happy to have starting for 6-7 years, with the technical ability to play for many different types of managers. Richarlison will be great in his role under Conte but I don’t think he has the ability to take over for Kane or Son in a few years as they fade. And any future managers who want to play a more possession-heavy style may not rate him.
Also Richarlison seems like a high-risk/low-reward move at that price. The odds that he makes the leap at 25 and up his game to a new level he hasn't previously shown is pretty low. Yet for that amount of cash there's a lot of risk if he gets hurt or he continues on the downward trend from last year.
I don't think they are looking for a "leap" except in the sense that he'll be playing with better players. And the Spurs will have more games against tougher competition. Right now the only backup behind Kane, Son, and Kulu is Moura. They needed more.
Here's one article about how he fits
What does Richarlison bring to Tottenham and how will he fit Antonio Conte's system? (sportinglife.com)
It was like a year ago yesterday we hired Nuno. If Levy is will to drop this cash because Conte likes Richarlison, man, fucking go for it.
The answer to eventually replacing one of Kane & Son is, hopefully, either Parrott or Scarlett. I wonder if one of them is going to stick on the roster this year. I think 6 pure attacking players is probably the number to carry and they only have 5 right after Bergwyn is sold.
In terms of Richarlison, I recognize getting Kane to not aggressively press anymore is one of the keys to his staying healthy the last two years, but I really do like how aggressive Richarlison is at pressing, for a striker. It will be nice to have that at the top of the defense again in the matches Richarlison plays for Kane. The downside is that we are now certainly cashing out on Bergwyn, and I think there is a decent chance he is a better player than Richarlison in a year or two.
I'm a Bergwijn believer too and wish he was able to stick around. I'm happy Richarlison is coming in because he should save wear and tear on Kane and Son and gives us the kind of squad depth that we've never had at the attacking positions (especially with Perisic also aboard).
In regards to Kane not pressing, another factor would be that Kane is also our defacto attacking midfielder, lying further back and making progressive passes forward. Ever since they lost Eriksen he has had to take on more of that role, which naturally leaves him unavailable for a lot of pressing.
I’m a Bergwjin non-believer at this point. He’ll put numbers up at Ajax, but so does Dusan Tadic.
The January window reminded me that sometimes transfers come in and are good. You don’t need to always watch them flounder for two years while making excuses like Bart and Homer chasing their roast pig.
The January window reminded me that sometimes transfers come in and are good. You don’t need to always watch them flounder for two years while making excuses like Bart and Homer chasing their roast pig.
I'm surprised about the negativity re Richy in here. It's an overpay IMO, but he capably backs up Kane and Son, and can start at either spot without having to change the team's plan. One thing I've heard from Spurs' pods is that as an established EPL striker (and Brazil's starting striker), it should help with getting Kane to accept starting on the bench more easily. I'm also a Begy fanboi but Richy is clearly more established. As others have said, Richy's a hardworker on defense and that also works for Conte and will endear him to Spurs fans. Lastly, with his age he's at least going to get the opportunity to be Son's successor (his best role), although Richy's probably not quite good enough to be Kane's successor as Spurs' central striker.
I've been wondering for the last few weeks who was correct in the discussion MMS and ZSF had at the end of the year over outgoing transfer values for Spurs players. Looks like ZSF read the market correctly and perhaps even underestimated Bergy's value and / or Paratici's bargaining ability.
That's a great deal for the club and I'm really happy for Bergy. The Dutch are my low key favorite for the WC (I'll blindly bet on Argentina as a homer, but if the draw complies perhaps we have a 1978 rematch??), and I think most fans my age (mid 30s) like the Dutch because of their mid 90s golden era--Davids, Seedorf, de Boers, Bergkamp, Kluivert, Overmars, Cocu, Van der Sar, de Boers, etc.
I mean, I left a lot of guys out and so many of those names played at huge clubs for long periods. Back on point, there's so many current Dutch players I like too--Bergy, Van Dijk, Frenkie, Depay, Weghorst, Gini, Donny "James" van de Beek, Dumfries, de Vrij, de Ligt, Ake, etc. And other than MF depth, that's a very well-rounded squad with a capable (albeit rigid) manager in Van Gaal.
View: https://twitter.com/Lilywhite_Rose/status/1544302674300076033?s=20&t=kSZNbB25-OaeoSJKAlBYyA
Deki discussing his miss at Norwich at the end of the season. But more importantly, he's giving this interview while donning a Romero Argentina shirt. My hero! I wonder if this is needling Richy a bit (seems like this bunch definitely enjoy taking the piss out of each other), but I have no idea about the chronology of events.
Deki discussing his miss at Norwich at the end of the season. But more importantly, he's giving this interview while donning a Romero Argentina shirt. My hero! I wonder if this is needling Richy a bit (seems like this bunch definitely enjoy taking the piss out of each other), but I have no idea about the chronology of events.
As much as you might have hated Richarlison for his admittedly exaggerated rolling around on the floor, you are going to love having him in your side. He NEVER stops. He is great at tracking back and tackling. I’m terrified to think how scary good Spurs can be on the counter now. Richy can pick the pocket of most CBs and fullbacks in possession, and is pacy enough and a good enough passer to get it out to Son lightning fast. No joke that six seconds after Richarlison bears down on the likes of a Harry Maguire futzing around with the ball forty yards out, Sons going to have it in the back of the net.
He is not the most skillful player in that he is not the best shooter, or the best passer, but he can pass, shoot, dribble, and tackle and he does it all with a tremendous work rate.
you will love him. I already miss him
He is not the most skillful player in that he is not the best shooter, or the best passer, but he can pass, shoot, dribble, and tackle and he does it all with a tremendous work rate.
you will love him. I already miss him
Makes sense. They missed out on the upgrades in Bastoni, Skriniar, and likely others, and this is a terrific backup option. Lenglet is pretty good playing the ball out of the back, but I think his greatest contribution will be in the air. He's an absolute weapon on set pieces and I imagine that this skill also translates to defending set pieces. If they finalize Spence, the rest of the window may be outgoings. Just wow.
Apparently they prioritized getting someone in as opposed to working all summer to possibly get one of those bigger options.
And while upgrades are always better, the Davies/Dier/Romero/Sanchez rotation was pretty solid, especially at the end of the season.
Yeah, they only conceded four goals in their last ten games, which also includes time without Romero who was hurt. With some more depth, improvements at CDM with Bissouma aboard (plus Oliver Skipp, who seemed to be on to something last year before getting injured) they have the potential to be really good. Davies isn't spectacular but if he is your worst starting player than you are doing pretty well.
I've never been more surprised at a player's turnaround than Eric Dier, who looked doomed as a top flight EPL player a few years ago but has totally been reinvigorated since moving to CB full time. He's been rock solid and avoided catastrophe; playing with Romero has helped him a ton.
I've never been more surprised at a player's turnaround than Eric Dier, who looked doomed as a top flight EPL player a few years ago but has totally been reinvigorated since moving to CB full time. He's been rock solid and avoided catastrophe; playing with Romero has helped him a ton.
Agreed re Davies and the backline being good enough. Getting better players and depth across MF and better depth should be enough. Lenglet is much better than Dav or Japh with his feet, and that alone probably makes him a better rotation option. I hope Dav gets moved for his sake, as I still think there's a quality CB in there. Rodon and Japh also need to be moved, but ultimately 1/3 last year's backups will remain even with Lenglet in the fold.
WRT Dier, the other thing that's helped him immensely is defending in a deeper block. Dier's biggest weakness is still his awareness, especially directly behind him. Having less space to worry about in behind has done wonders for him.