Sox owners want to be under cap in '20

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
11,947
Well, compared to the group here they are. We have ~20 years of data that says that the collective wisdom of SoSH would pretty much put the best GMs to shame.

And if this story is true, I can only imagine how eagerly our prospect-lovers are in awaiting this offseason. If the Sox start selling their established MLB players off, they will get the best of both worlds. Trades where the Sox are absolutely selling low and yet getting a bunch of shiny new toys, most of whom will likely never play any meaningful innings in the MLB.

Welcome to the early 2010s Astros...here is hoping that the Sox can replicate their rebuild without having to steal data. Of course, we are more likely looking at something more akin to the post 2015 Royals when its all said and done. But prospects!!!!!
2003 and 2013 say hi. Lots of potential bargains out there. This is Henry recognizing a market inefficiency—middle-age mediocrity. Lance Lynn signed for $10 million, Ben Cherington made him pay $20 million to Porcello. Nelson Cruz got 1 year at $14 million with a $12 million club option, Henry’s paying $22 million for JDM. Cory Dickerson got $6.6 million after getting nontendered, Jackie Bradley got $8.5 in arbitration
 
Last edited:

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,164
Firesale here we come.

Makes the Eovaldi contract and the Sale extension and the Bogaerts extension all the more baffling.
Not sure why X contract is lumped into this. Might have been the best move this offseason out of any team. But this does mean Betts is gone and JD might be encouraged to opt out. Price might be traded if they can find a taker.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
29,463
2003 and 2013 say hi. Lots of potential bargains out there.
Having to trade away a player of Mookie Betts caliber and then replacing him with two Jeremy Giambis or some hotshot AA kid who is just as likely to be doing biz-dev in for a startup in three years as he is to be playing in Fenway doesn't do it for me, sorry.

Also, while its true that the Sox managed to make some smart signings prior to 2003 and 2013, they still had most of their stars under contract. Furthermore, the Sox were able to capitalize on market inefficiencies in 2003 that simply don't exist today. The Twins or their equivalents aren't as likely to give up on a David Ortiz type player these days.
 

WalletTrack

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,000
<Tomorrowland>
So ownership can't go on with cash firehose going out due to luxury tax.
Four WS parades so far in the 21st, i like their BP.
Remember GM dosen't hit the tax...hello Oakland, Houston, Chicago and New York any front office talent there could be available.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
6,095
Well, compared to the group here they are. We have ~20 years of data that says that the collective wisdom of SoSH would pretty much put the best GMs to shame.

And if this story is true, I can only imagine how eagerly our prospect-lovers are in awaiting this offseason. If the Sox start selling their established MLB players off, they will get the best of both worlds. Trades where the Sox are absolutely selling low and yet getting a bunch of shiny new toys, most of whom will likely never play any meaningful innings in the MLB.

Welcome to the early 2010s Astros...here is hoping that the Sox can replicate their rebuild without having to steal data. Of course, we are more likely looking at something more akin to the post 2015 Royals when its all said and done. But prospects!!!!!
The Cardinals stole the Astros data; it wasn't the Astros stealing the data.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
11,947
Having to trade away a player of Mookie Betts caliber and then replacing him with two Jeremy Giambis or some hotshot AA kid who is just as likely to be doing biz-dev in for a startup in three years as he is to be playing in Fenway doesn't do it for me, sorry.

Also, while its true that the Sox managed to make some smart signings prior to 2003 and 2013, they still had most of their stars under contract. Furthermore, the Sox were able to capitalize on market inefficiencies in 2003 that simply don't exist today. The Twins or their equivalents aren't as likely to give up on a David Ortiz type player these days.
Or a Gio Urshela-type or a Luke Vogt-type player maybe?

They’ve still got Bogarts and Devers to build around and Sale, Price, and Eovaldi all on immovable contracts so you might as well hope they get healthy and pitch like the stars they’re paid to be.

What they do with the more than $240 million and more than 8 years that Betts apparently wants is more important than who they get back.

As I said in a different thread, not paying over $3 million for one of the worst offensive players in baseball history and $2 million for a TOS-damaged reliever would be a start to saving money around the edges too.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
1,942
Braintree, MA
There are no "easy" ways to get under $208 million given the current roster composition. I posted this in the "Foundation for next year thread", but feel it's relevant here:

Looking at the tax thresholds of $208/$228/$248 getting under the lowest cap doesn't happen in 2020 unless they're committing to a rebuild.

Per Cot's they're at $151.1 for luxury tax purposes with the following contracts:

David Price
JD Martinez
Nathan Eovaldi
Chris Sale
Xander Bogaerts
Dustin Pedroia
Christian Vazquez

Betts, Bradley and E.Rod could easily be $45 mil between the 3 of them. Barnes, Workman and Benintendi could easily be another $8-12. Rounding out the roster with the likes of Pre-arb guys like Devers, Marco, Chavis, Darwinzon and others would be another $8-10. I know a good $15 mil or so for benefits is added in here, but we're starting in the $225-230 range assuming every non-free agent is back.

There needs to be some compromise here, I think someone like Brock Holt is a luxury for example. I'd argue that if they can find a taker for Price with only a $5 mil a year kicker, they have to consider it. They have to consider dealing JBJ and seeing if you can find a Left Fielder for half the price. Somebody like Alex Gordon may be a cheaper option.
  • I think they have to move one of the Price, Sale, Eovaldi. Realistically Price would be the easiest to move but he would still need to be subsidized with money and/or a cheaper asset. I think at this point Sale is untradeable and Eovaldi is pretty darn close to untradeable. Both Sale and Eovaldi's status could change by mid-2020
  • Brock Holt and Sandy Leon are probably luxuries they can't afford.
  • JBJ is a tradeable asset. I could see Alex Gordon as a cheaper alternative on the Free agent market.
  • I think Barnes can be traded.
If Pedroia has to retire, is there precedent on paying him his salary as a consultant and not a player? Did the Yankees do something like that with A.Rod?

If JD opts out, he's gone. That gets them a significant of the way towards the $208 million cap. They could deal JBJ as well and effectively wait out free agency for Feb/Mar deals. With JBJ and JD gone they'd be in the $195-200 range.
 

Ale Xander

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
22,812
You can save some $ also by bringing up guys like Dalbec (CI) Lin (MIF/CF), Centeno, and Sturgeon (COF) as your bench. Holt and Gordon/FA and Leon are luxuries you can't afford if you're trying to stay under the tax and keep JDM as well as Mookie. Gonna have to see a lot of JDM as your LF if you keep him over JBJ.

A lineup of
Mookie RF
Devers 3B
Bogaerts SS
JDM DH/LF
Beni CF
Chavis 1B/DH
Vasquez C
Gorkys/Sturgeon/Dalbec
Hernandez 2B

is still pretty good and 4 of those guys make nothing
 
Last edited:

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
You can save some $ also by bringing up guys like Dalbec (CI) Lin (MIF/CF), Centeno, and Sturgeon (COF) as your bench. Holt and Gordon/FA and Leon are luxuries you can't afford if you're trying to stay under the tax and keep JDM as well as Mookie. Gonna have to see a lot of JDM as your LF if you keep him over JBJ.

A lineup of
Mookie RF
Devers 3B
Bogaerts SS
JDM DH/LF
Chavis 1B/DH
Vasquez C
Gorkys/Sturgeon/Dalbec
Hernandez 2B

is still pretty good and 4 of those guys make nothing
Where did Beni go?
 

chawson

Well-Known Member
Bronze Supporter
Aug 1, 2006
1,583
I think teams will recognize that the Greinke trade was smart of the Astros and someone will trade for Price. $/WAR isn’t the measurement of value these days as much as actually having players under contract.

Sending Price to Philadelphia for Segura (under contract through 2022 for $14.25 per) makes some sense. We’d shave $16.75 million off the roster and we’d have a capable second baseman through his age-32 season. The Phillies replace Arrieta and Vargas with Price for essentially 3/$64 over what they’re already paying Segura.

Similar trades could be made with the Cardinals for Fowler or Carpenter and the Brewers for Ryan Braun (if he waived his 10-5). There are very few teams this works with, of course, but some pitching-starved contenders do.

It would create a massive rotation hole but it’s at least then possible to keep Mookie and JDM.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
61,165
Oregon
I think teams will recognize that the Greinke trade was smart of the Astros and someone will trade for Price.
Equating Greinke with Price is a non-starter ... on durability issues alone
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,918
A lesson of this year is that having a great lineup but shitty starting pitching isn't a recipe for success. It's like the Sox teams of my youth. Getting rid of Price so the Sox can keep JDM and Mookie makes no sense to me.
Mookie is the crown jewel. I do whatever it takes to keep him. I would not sacrifice Price for JD but I absolutely would for a 7 WAR player just entering his prime.
 

santadevil

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
3,953
Saskatchestan
I bet the MLBPA is really happy that they agreed to a defacto hard salary cap in the last CBA. Literally every team is treating it as a hard cap.

Guess I should enjoy baseball while I can, since we are in for a long strike.
In your world, this strike has been happening for 14 months already

All kidding aside, MLBPA needs a new leader

We all knew this was going to be the operation for next year. Not shocking they put it out to the world. It's part negotiating tactic on their part. Sorry JDM, we aren't renegotiating with you. But, hey Mookie, we're getting under next year so we can reset the penalty and back up the truck for you in 2021
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,290
The wrong side of the bridge....
We all knew this was going to be the operation for next year. Not shocking they put it out to the world. It's part negotiating tactic on their part. Sorry JDM, we aren't renegotiating with you. But, hey Mookie, we're getting under next year so we can reset the penalty and back up the truck for you in 2021
So if this is the case, and their strategy really is to hold onto Mookie next year even if JDM doesn't opt out, then they'll have to do one or both of the following:

1) trade both Benintendi and JBJ, leaving an outfield of something like Chavis/Betts/Sturgeon; this would put them at around $180M before Mookie's arb, which will still be cutting it pretty close;
2) trade one or more of Price/Sale/Eovaldi for what is likely to be an almost nonexistent return if they're not providing salary relief (and if they do, then they'll certainly need to trade more than one of them, or much of the point is lost).

I really don't see the point. While I'm not in the camp that says Mookie's unwillingness to negotiate an extension means he's made up his mind to leave Boston, it certainly means we can't assume he has a preference to stay. Therefore the team has to proceed on the assumption that he will more likely than not be gone after 2020. In that case, they might as well bite the bullet and trade him this winter, which pretty much solves the get-under-$208M problem in one stroke as well as providing at least a little bit of long-term reloading help (it won't be a ton, but it won't be a bag of balls either). I hate to say it, but the more I look at it, the more trading Mookie looks like a no-brainer if you can leave sentiment out of it (a big if, obviously).
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
25,941
I really don't see the point. While I'm not in the camp that says Mookie's unwillingness to negotiate an extension means he's made up his mind to leave Boston, it certainly means we can't assume he has a preference to stay. Therefore the team has to proceed on the assumption that he will more likely than not be gone after 2020. In that case, they might as well bite the bullet and trade him this winter, which pretty much solves the get-under-$208M problem in one stroke as well as providing at least a little bit of long-term reloading help (it won't be a ton, but it won't be a bag of balls either). I hate to say it, but the more I look at it, the more trading Mookie looks like a no-brainer if you can leave sentiment out of it (a big if, obviously).
This seems to be the whole point of this pronouncement by the owners, it's a PR move to prep for Mookie being dealt. "We just had to do it, don't hate us."
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,290
The wrong side of the bridge....
No, for the long-term. And if it takes finding a taker for Price to do it, I’m 100% on board. Regardless, I’m not convinced there would be that many takers for Price’s 3/96 given his age.
Mookie has already said, on multiple occasions, that he is determined to go to FA after 2020. So are you saying that you think it's worth doing whatever it takes to be able to keep him for 2020 because keeping him around for one more year, as opposed to trading him, makes it slightly more likely that he'll choose the Sox among his FA suitors? I guess that's an argument, though it seems like putting a whole lot of eggs in a pretty tenuous basket.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,918
Mookie has already said, on multiple occasions, that he is determined to go to FA after 2020. So are you saying that you think it's worth doing whatever it takes to be able to keep him for 2020 because keeping him around for one more year, as opposed to trading him, makes it slightly more likely that he'll choose the Sox among his FA suitors? I guess that's an argument, though it seems like putting a whole lot of eggs in a pretty tenuous basket.
What I’m saying is that he is a 7+ WAR player entering his prime. I pay whatever the market dictates, even if that means other cuts are necessary. I’m confident that a competitive offer by the Sox keeps him. Sounds like they are not comfortable paying market rate for his services.
 

Ale Xander

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
22,812
No, for the long-term. And if it takes finding a taker for Price to do it, I’m 100% on board. Regardless, I’m not convinced there would be that many takers for Price’s 3/96 given his age.
You package him with any cheap young players not named Devers, You get it done if you can extend Mookie. Even Chavis and/or Darwinzon.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,290
The wrong side of the bridge....
What I’m saying is that he is a 7+ WAR player entering his prime. I pay whatever the market dictates, even if that means other cuts are necessary. I’m confident that a competitive offer by the Sox keeps him. Sounds like they are not comfortable paying market rate for his services.
I'm curious what you're basing this confidence on, given that it's in direct contradiction to what Betts himself has said, more than once.

EDIT: Also--and this is important--he's not entering his prime, he's in the middle of it. By the time he starts playing for whatever team signs him as an FA, he may well be on the way out of it. Tempus fugit. Betts is not a kid phenom anymore.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,918
I'm curious what you're basing this confidence on, given that it's in direct contradiction to what Betts himself has said, more than once.

EDIT: Also--and this is important--he's not entering his prime, he's in the middle of it. By the time he starts playing for whatever team signs him as an FA, he may well be on the way out of it. Tempus fugit. Betts is not a kid phenom anymore.
By competitive, I’m saying it matches the top offers out there. If the Sox think he wants to go somewhere else for the sake of a change, then that obviously changes the calculus for me.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,290
The wrong side of the bridge....
By competitive, I’m saying it matches the top offers out there. If the Sox think he wants to go somewhere else for the sake of a change, then that obviously changes the calculus for me.
OK, so to be clear, you're not talking about an extension, you're talking about the Sox signing Mookie as an FA, correct? I was a little thrown off by you saying that the Sox didn't seem comfortable paying market rate for his services, since obviously the only chance they've had to do this is in the form of an extension offer.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Gold Supporter
There are no "easy" ways to get under $208 million given the current roster composition. I posted this in the "Foundation for next year thread", but feel it's relevant here:

Looking at the tax thresholds of $208/$228/$248 getting under the lowest cap doesn't happen in 2020 unless they're committing to a rebuild.


  • I think they have to move one of the Price, Sale, Eovaldi. Realistically Price would be the easiest to move but he would still need to be subsidized with money and/or a cheaper asset. I think at this point Sale is untradeable and Eovaldi is pretty darn close to untradeable. Both Sale and Eovaldi's status could change by mid-2020
  • Brock Holt and Sandy Leon are probably luxuries they can't afford.
  • JBJ is a tradeable asset. I could see Alex Gordon as a cheaper alternative on the Free agent market.
  • I think Barnes can be traded.
If Pedroia has to retire, is there precedent on paying him his salary as a consultant and not a player? Did the Yankees do something like that with A.Rod?

If JD opts out, he's gone. That gets them a significant of the way towards the $208 million cap. They could deal JBJ as well and effectively wait out free agency for Feb/Mar deals. With JBJ and JD gone they'd be in the $195-200 range.
I think the bolded part above is key. Realistically, JDM will make his opt-out decision before he meets with the new GM, even if the new hire is announced before JDM’s decision is. Henry is signaling to Boras that he shouldn’t expect the Sox to be among JDM’s suitors if he opts out. He’s also tamping down expectations for 2020, freeing the new GM to make the right decisions for the long term.

I think Henry truly does believe that getting under $208 million is the right move for the long term, so I wouldn’t dismiss his comments as mere posturing, but I’d be surprised if he’s not open to changing his opinion based on the new GM’s input.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,918
OK, so to be clear, you're not talking about an extension, you're talking about the Sox signing Mookie as an FA, correct? I was a little thrown off by you saying that the Sox didn't seem comfortable paying market rate for his services, since obviously the only chance they've had to do this is in the form of an extension offer.
Yes, sorry. Meant FA. Believe me, I get the Mookie risk. Decent chance he leaves even if Sox make a big effort. I just think he’s such an elite talent that you don’t close the door until he closes it on you. Not sure the opportunity cost is that significant but that obviously depends on the packages teams would be willing to offer for 1 year of Mookie and what the Sox could do with the payroll flexibility.

To me, it makes little sense to sign those Sale/Eovaldi deals only to let your best player go shortly after. We’ll commit $30+ M / year to SP over 30 with injury risks but we won’t commit $40M / year for an elite offensive and defensive player right in the middle of his prime?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,877
Maine
Yes, sorry. Meant FA. Believe me, I get the Mookie risk. Decent chance he leaves even if Sox make a big effort. I just think he’s such an elite talent that you don’t close the door until he closes it on you. Not sure the opportunity cost is that significant but that obviously depends on the packages teams would be willing to offer for 1 year of Mookie and what the Sox could do with the payroll flexibility.

To me, it makes little sense to sign those Sale/Eovaldi deals only to let your best player go shortly after. We’ll commit $30+ M / year to SP over 30 with injury risks but we won’t commit $40M / year for an elite offensive and defensive player right in the middle of his prime?
I think you're making some assumptions that aren't in evidence about ownership's willingness to pay Mookie. The only things we know right now is that Mookie doesn't want to sign before he becomes a free agent and that ownership wants to get under the luxury tax next year. We do not know that the Red Sox are going to balk at paying him market rate for 2021 and beyond, nor do we know that the luxury tax will prevent them from doing so.

I know that the focus of this news about Henry desiring to get under the luxury tax cap is Mookie and potentially trading him, but that is simply the media's (and our) first reaction as a shortcut way to accomplish the goal without a complete tear down. That doesn't mean it is inevitably going to happen. The new GM might get creative enough to shed the necessary payroll while keeping all the key players (Mookie, JD, etc) and/or acquiring some others.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
6,658
I think the bolded part above is key. Realistically, JDM will make his opt-out decision before he meets with the new GM, even if the new hire is announced before JDM’s decision is. Henry is signaling to Boras that he shouldn’t expect the Sox to be among JDM’s suitors if he opts out. He’s also tamping down expectations for 2020, freeing the new GM to make the right decisions for the long term.

I think Henry truly does believe that getting under $208 million is the right move for the long term, so I wouldn’t dismiss his comments as mere posturing, but I’d be surprised if he’s not open to changing his opinion based on the new GM’s input.
I was just coming here to post the same. I think these pronouncements provide cover for the new PoBO/GM and could be key to attracting a forward-thinker like Chaim Bloom or Brandon Taubman.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,290
The wrong side of the bridge....
The new GM might get creative enough to shed the necessary payroll while keeping all the key players (Mookie, JD, etc) and/or acquiring some others.
Maybe, but we've been batting around some ideas here and it's not obvious how they do that.

Using the base figures at Cot's and my best guesses about arb money and pre-arb raises (obviously subject to error), if the Sox keep everybody that's currently on the 40-man, and acquire nobody, it looks like they'll be at about $220-225M. That's assuming the following:

Mookie A3: $27M
JBJ A4: $12M
Edro A2: $8M
Beni A1: $5M
Workman A3: $5M
Barnes A2: $4M
Hembree A2: $3M
M. Hernandez A1: $1M
Centeno A2: $700K*

That's a total of about $66M for the arb guys**. There are 7 guys with guaranteed salaries amounting to about $133.5M. Six of them will be on the roster (the other is Pedroia). So 9 arb guys plus 6 guaranteed guys add up to 15 guys making $200M. When you add in $17M (Cot's estimate) for benefits and minor league 40-man salaries, you're already almost $10M over, and you still have 10 slots to fill with pre-arb guys. A few of them (Devers most obviously) will certainly be making more than the minimum; let's say the 10 pre-arb roster slots average $600K each. That's $6M more, putting the Sox at $223M.

If that's correct (and I'm sure someone will tell me if it's not!), they'll have to shed at least $15M in salary, and to have any kind of breathing room, more like $18-20M. Not an insurmountable problem, but how you do it without trading any of the "key players" is hard to see. Not impossible, maybe, but hard. You could do it by purging all of the arb-level pitchers, and backfilling from the pre-arb kids, or by trading some of those guys plus one of JBJ or Benintendi. Note that both those solutions involving trading guys who are arguably "key players" (Edro, JBJ, Beni).

How would you do it?

*Cot's says Centeno is A2, BBref says A1
**Leon, Wright, Gorkys Hernandez, Smith, and Weber are also arbitration-eligible next year, but I'm guessing they'll all be non-tendered or otherwise disposed of; anyway the latter three's awards won't amount to much.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
6,095
Maybe, but we've been batting around some ideas here and it's not obvious how they do that.

Using the base figures at Cot's and my best guesses about arb money and pre-arb raises (obviously subject to error), if the Sox keep everybody that's currently on the 40-man, and acquire nobody, it looks like they'll be at about $220-225M. That's assuming the following:

Mookie A3: $27M
JBJ A4: $12M
Edro A2: $8M
Beni A1: $5M
Workman A3: $5M
Barnes A2: $4M
Hembree A2: $3M
M. Hernandez A1: $1M
Centeno A2: $700K*

That's a total of about $66M for the arb guys**. There are 7 guys with guaranteed salaries amounting to about $133.5M. Six of them will be on the roster (the other is Pedroia). So 9 arb guys plus 6 guaranteed guys add up to 15 guys making $200M. When you add in $17M (Cot's estimate) for benefits and minor league 40-man salaries, you're already almost $10M over, and you still have 10 slots to fill with pre-arb guys. A few of them (Devers most obviously) will certainly be making more than the minimum; let's say the 10 pre-arb roster slots average $600K each. That's $6M more, putting the Sox at $223M.

If that's correct (and I'm sure someone will tell me if it's not!), they'll have to shed at least $15M in salary, and to have any kind of breathing room, more like $18-20M. Not an insurmountable problem, but how you do it without trading any of the "key players" is hard to see. Not impossible, maybe, but hard. You could do it by purging all of the arb-level pitchers, and backfilling from the pre-arb kids, or by trading some of those guys plus one of JBJ or Benintendi. Note that both those solutions involving trading guys who are arguably "key players" (Edro, JBJ, Beni).

How would you do it?

*Cot's says Centeno is A2, BBref says A1
**Leon, Wright, Gorkys Hernandez, Smith, and Weber are also arbitration-eligible next year, but I'm guessing they'll all be non-tendered or otherwise disposed of; anyway the latter three's awards won't amount to much.
Try to trade Eovaldi. Or Price if you can.
Re-sign Porcello cheap.
Trade JBJ.
Trade Benintendi.
Trade Workman.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t love any of these moves really. But if the objective is to get under the threshold and keep painful decisions have to be made.

It leaves holes. Two OF spots. Key bullpen spot. Rotation spot. Must find a way to fill them less expensively without killing the season. Not easy to do, I understand.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,164
Try to trade Eovaldi. Or Price if you can.
Re-sign Porcello cheap.
Trade JBJ.
Trade Benintendi.
Trade Workman.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t love any of these moves really. But if the objective is to get under the threshold and keep painful decisions have to be made.

It leaves holes. Two OF spots. Key bullpen spot. Rotation spot. Must find a way to fill them less expensively without killing the season. Not easy to do, I understand.
Problem with Porcello is even as a cheap option he's going to cost around 10 million. Which is probably out of the Sox price range. We have to be prepared for Mookie being shipped out with maybe a bad contract or two for a minimal return or a package of prospects coming over in a trade that might be rushed up to fill some holes rather than sign anyone in FA. I'm not saying the payroll will look like Oaklands but its going to be probably outside of the top 10 and definitely outside of the top 5 next year.
 

PudgeFIST

lurker
Aug 19, 2016
39
Sox ownership got jealous of what the Yankees are doing I guess.

Ironic since last year I was pointing to the Sox as why they needed to actually spend to win a WS again
Sarcasm? The Yankees are well over $200mil this year, even with all the young guys.
Wait till Judge and Sanchez hit Arb.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
6,658
Trading Sale, Price or Eovaldi is not realistic in 2020 - they need to show that they are healthy and elite, and I'm not sure even a good first half next year will be enough.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
45,878
Sarcasm? The Yankees are well over $200mil this year, even with all the young guys.
Wait till Judge and Sanchez hit Arb.
NY reset their tax rate coming into this season, that's what Henry is jealous of, if anything. People focus way too much on player salary=team spending, and that's not so much the case anymore. With the new CBA, the only way to really invest serious money is behind the scenes, and I think that is where NY has pulled ahead of BOS.

Anyway, some actual quotes from Werner and Henry from the two Athletic articles yesterday give you specifics:

“I think it is apparent is that we need to have more depth in our minor-league system and more people coming up through the system that can be everyday baseball players,” Werner said.

“One of the things we observe and I think we all observe is, first of all, there are teams that make the postseason with half the payroll the Red Sox have,” Werner said. “Look at the success Oakland has had this year and the Milwaukee Brewers."

“This year we need to be under the CBT and that was something we’ve known for more than a year now,” Henry said. “If you don’t reset there are penalties, so we’ve known for some time now we needed to reset as other clubs have done.”
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
61,165
Oregon
They're delusional if they think they can turn the Red Sox into the Oakland A's
 

chawson

Well-Known Member
Bronze Supporter
Aug 1, 2006
1,583
Equating Greinke with Price is a non-starter ... on durability issues alone
Really? My sense was that coming into 2019 most people would have rathered the Price contract, considering age, velocity concerns, and Greinke’s higher AAV.

In any case, the Diamondbacks got four decent prospects for Greinke. The Sox could get a league average salary dump. If it’s a straight swap of contracts for Segura — an semi-expensive player who is redundant there — then for them it’s essentially a free agent acquisition of Price at 3/$51. If I’m Klentak in Philadelphia and I have to get pitching next year to contend with Harper, McCutchen and Realmuto, “signing” Price at 3/$51 is preferable than signing Keuchel, Bumgarner or Odorizzi to similar money, or Cole/Wheeler/Bumgarner to much more, which they’d have to do anyway.
 

ookami7m

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,588
Mobile, AL
There are teams who are willing to pay for international salary slots and/or prospects. Happens every year. It's a question of how much salary savings the Red Sox will get and whether they are willing to absorb the PR hit they would inevitably would receive.

Arizona would be a perfect candidate, due to geographics.

Not saying it's likely, but removing some of Petey's salary would be a boon, given where the Red Sox sit over the threshold.
This isn't like the NHL where you can trade bad contracts to float money around. Pedroia's not leaving.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,164
If they stick to around $200M, it'd still be Top 5 in payroll.
I don't think thats going to be the case. If this club wants to try to contend for a playoff spot they probably want a buffer in payroll so they can add at the deadline. I'm honestly thinking the payroll will be closer to 180 than 200. Which depending on how other teams arbitration and signings shakes out they could be #5 or could fall down the list. This year 180 would still be around 4 or 5 I believe but one of those teams are the Houston Astros who will certainly pass the 180 mark if they keep all their talent including Cole. The nationals will probably add a piece or two as will STL. Giants could go either way. Angels will probably spend again. So its very possible they're on the bottom half of that top 10 and maybe thats the actual goal. I don't know. All I know is that the payroll isn't going to be close to the Brewers Rays or A's.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,164
This isn't like the NHL where you can trade bad contracts to float money around. Pedroia's not leaving.
But you could attach Pedroia in a deal with Mookie to get that money off the books. I'm not saying its a good strategy or that people would approve of it (including Pedroia who I believe has a NTC). But can it be done? Yes. Just don't expect any positive return on your best asset and expect to pay some of pedeys deal too.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
45,878
They're delusional if they think they can turn the Red Sox into the Oakland A's
No, but there are components of the OAK/TB decision making processes that can be incorporated into larger budget teams, especially the way TB has built pitching staffs in recent years.
 

chawson

Well-Known Member
Bronze Supporter
Aug 1, 2006
1,583
Sorry, I researched this a bit but didn’t see an answer, why is Segura redundant in PHI?
They have a long-term investment in Kingery, who can play anywhere but plays a solid short, and another year of Hernandez at second. They could probably stick Kingery at third and bench Maikel Franco, but it’s not a long-term solution since top prospect Alec Bohm might be ready as soon as next summer.

Considering Segura came over in a swap of bad deals last winter, I doubt they’re super invested in him, especially after a somewhat down year.
 
Last edited:

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,877
Maine
But you could attach Pedroia in a deal with Mookie to get that money off the books. I'm not saying its a good strategy or that people would approve of it (including Pedroia who I believe has a NTC). But can it be done? Yes. Just don't expect any positive return on your best asset and expect to pay some of pedeys deal too.
So some team is going to take on $15M AAV in dead money just to get Mookie (who himself is going to be getting upwards of $30M next year)? Or even a portion of it? That's insanity. There isn't a team in the league that's going to do the Red Sox the favor of sparing them some or all of Pedroia's dead money.