I think you're general point along these lines is fine-- whichever OF the sox end up putting in LF would have more value to another club (in CF) than they do to the Sox (in LF). The problem is that in practice, I'm not sure there's a good trade fit that ends up being a net + for both teams. Presumably, a trade like this would be (let's say) Betts for a better hitting OF that can't play CF (so the Sox get extra hitting value with minimal defensive value lost since it's LF, whereas other team loses some hitting value but gains it in defensive value). But, for this to really work, everything else (notably contract and potential for improvement) needs to be similar between the two, which makes it exceedingly difficult to find a good potential match.WenZink said:
Not so weird. Top CFers will generally have more dWAR that than the best LFers. I assume it's because the more plays and area that a CF has as his responsibility, the more chances he has to excel and separate himself from the pack. And, to use a stat that isn't positionally adjusted, if you look at the b-ref Total Zone Runs, you'll see that the CFers are the leaders in that category.
Putting Betts or JBJ in left field, particulary in Fenway, minimizes the advantage of their speed and ball tracking. A CFer will make 25% more plays than a corner outfielder, in Fenway, it's even more than that, I suspect, vs LFer, not as much compared to the RFer. JBJ is probably as good as anyone in the game -- maybe Kiermaier is better. Castillo has the arm, and the range for RF in Fenway. Betts will be a great LFer, I suspect, but he'll be under-utilized.
If we look at OF 26yo and younger this season to see whether there's a way the Sox could get a better corner OF bat, here's the top of the list by OPS:
Harper 1.091
Trout .971
Pedersen .794
Heyward .790
Betts .771
I think we can all agree Harper and Trout aren't going anywhere, and Pedersen isn't a fit in this scenario because he's also an excellent CF. Which basically leaves Jason Heyward as a guy that potentially satisfies this situation: a corner OF who (probably) hits better than Betts, but is still pretty young. Of course, he'll be a FA this offseason.
You could conceivably sign someone like Heyward, and then try to trade Betts for similar production elsewhere, but you'd have to get enough extra production to cover the cost of Heyward's contract. Maybe there's a SP out there that would work, but you'd be going from Betts + Miley/Kelly -> Heyward + Betts trade return. So the SP you get back has to be enough better than Miley/Kelly to justify the entire contract given to Heyward, which seems like a tough another sell. But you're still losing out on the possibility that Betts is going to get better.