Sox Contract Extension Poll

[chawson]

Five significant Sox veterans contracts’ expire next year, and another franchise superstar hits free agency in 2024.

But the team has money. Assuming Bogaerts opts out, they’ll be an estimated $145 million under the first CBT tax threshold ($233M) in 2023, and roughly $166 million under it ($241M) in 2025, per the Red Sox Payroll twitter’s tally.

I think most everyone here would extend Devers, and many would re-sign Bogaerts even with Story in the fold. Are there other Sox we should keep in town?

• Bogaerts (as 2B) - 7/$175M, aka the Semien deal (‘23-29; age 30-36 seasons)
Depth chart: Story <~>, Mayer (ETA 2025) / Downs (ETA 2023), Yorke (ETA 2025)

• Devers - 10/$265M, aka ‘the Machado with bad defense’ deal (‘22-31, age 25-34 seasons)
Depth chart: Dalbec, Binelas (2025)

• Eovaldi - 3/$63M with an IP-based vesting option that would bring it to 4/$84, (‘23-25; age 33-35/36 seasons)*
2023 rotation: Sale, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Paxton, Seabold

• Hernández - 4/$60M, $12M club option for ‘27 with $4M buyout, aka the Chris Taylor deal (‘23-26, age 31-34 seasons)
Depth chart: Duran, Jimenez (2023)

• Martinez - 2/$30M (‘23-24, age 35-36 seasons)*
Depth chart: Dalbec

• Vázquez - 2/$13M, aka the Yan Gomes deal (‘23-24, age 32-33 seasons)
Depth chart: Hernández, Wong (2023)

For this exercise, let’s say each player would sign a market-rate contract extension — even though we’ll disagree on what that is. I don’t think we can assume hometown discounts, but each of these guys seems like they have enjoyed Boston enough to consider staying under the right terms. Regardless, free to quibble on the dollars and years.

Devers’ deal would be inked today and include the 2022 season. Everyone else’s deal would begin after 2022 when their contracts expire. For this exercise, let’s assume everyone stays reasonably healthy and hits their 2022 ZIPS projections.

*I indexed Eovaldi’s extension to Jon Gray’s 4/$56M. Eovaldi’s older with worse injury history but has a higher ceiling. JDM will be as old as McCutchen when he signed his 1/$8.5M deal with Milwaukee, but is a superior hitter.

 

[RG33]

I voted for Xander/Raffy/Kike. I think the parameters you have up for each of them is quite reasonable, bordering on no-brainers. Now, if Raffy wants 10/350 or X wants 8/225 then it is a different story.

I would be comfortable (somewhat pained) letting Eovaldi walk based on his injury history and age and think it is probably time to move on from JDM and Vazquez and find better, younger replacements. If they were good with heavily discounted deals, I’d be fine with bringing back Nate and JDM (2/38 for Eovaldi, 2/24 for JDM).

 

[thehitcat]

I was dead red yes on Xander and Raffy. I wavered a bit on Enrique and Nate but if they have similar seasons to last year again this year I'm onboard with both. I have a personal vendetta against JD (re: Mookie) so he's a no and I was closer than I thought to yes on Christian but in the end it was a no unless he took a discount.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think Devers and Bogaerts need to be approached immediately, although I guess there is a bit less urgency on X with Story in the fold.

Hernandez is an interesting one; I think a lot of it will obviously depend on how he does this year and how Duran contributes (or doesn’t). That seems like an opportunity to save some money and slot in a cheaper contributor potentially.

The others strike me as as maybes if the deal is tilted in favor of the team.

 

[grimshaw]

I'm a big believer in nothing over 6 years if you are 30+.

The most I'd go for any of those guys:

Bogaerts - 4/120 with a mutual option for years 5 and 6. Not happening but I really don't think he'll get the mega-contract with the pending positional change.

Devers 7/180. Probably not happening. I'm very much in the minority here, but you can't pay him like a premium position guy.

Hernandez is a no-brainer. $15 mill per is easily swallowed if something disastrous happens. Injury insurance for everyone.

Eovaldi yes, but I think he'll get more if he's within shouting distance of 2021.

Martinez 1/12. Not happening. I'd rather have a rotation at the position.

Vazquez - Yes, but only because there is no one a knockin'

 

[Daniel_Son]

I said Eovaldi and Devers - we don't have a ton of great SP depth in the minors yet, and I think Eovaldi will continue to provide value as a 2nd-3rd starter for another few years. Devers is still young enough that a mega contract makes sense.

Xander - I think Story's signing gives us a pretty good bridge to Mayer. I love X, but I think he finds a better deal elsewhere.
Hernández - He's a sparkplug for sure, and a surprisingly great defensive outfielder, but I think he's replaceable. I'd like to se JBJ slide over to center and prioritize offense in the outfield next year.
Martinez - he's suddenly got 15 more suitors. Defensive liability. Pass.
Vazquez - I'm fine with rolling with Wong/Hernandez. Pass.

 

[koufax32]

What gives me pause about Devers is that “market rate” implies an expectation that he’ll stay at third for the foreseeable future. I’m not sure that’s a safe assumption. In my own perfect world, X would get extended and play at third at some point in the next 2-3 years, Mayer would become a stud and be the SS for the next dozen years, and Devers would be the DH.

 

[mikeford]

If it's 2 years 13 mil for Vazquez I do it just because the FA crop is absolutely brutal. I would rather trade for a better catcher but I'm not sure that's gonna be possible.

 

[YTF]

I'll start with the guys that you designated as not being re-signed until after ther '22 season ends. Vaz is making 7M this year, I doubt he re-ups for less in his FA year unless he his play this season leaves him no option. IF, big if, both Casa and Dalbec produce this season there may be no real need to re-sign JDM. That money may be better used to address pitching needs. speaking of...

Eovaldi....I think 3 that 3/66M would be my max there.

Kike'....I think in the neighborhood of 15M per isn't unreasonable. The thing with him is assigning a number of years depending on what you see his future role being. I'm guessing they offer 3 years and that he would be looking for more.

Bogaerts....I'm not sure an AAV of 25M gets it done if Story is getting 23.3M. You might have to bump that up as high as 27 which would put you at 189M for 7 years.

Devers....10 years scares me. That's a shit ton for a guy who's likely to be a DH in a few years. You would be looking to would redo this year, a buyout of his last arb year and whatever years you sign him for after. I wonder if he might find 8 years attractive with the opportunity to become a FA after his age 32 season. 24 AAV over 8 year would give him a nice bump over this year and next and a total of 192 with a chance to go back on the market at age 32.

Of course none of this takes any sort of options into account and is mostly a "for shits and giggles" exercise just to play along as there are others better versed in player values, projections, etc...

 

[YTF]

I said Eovaldi and Devers - we don't have a ton of great SP depth in the minors yet, and I think Eovaldi will continue to provide value as a 2nd-3rd starter for another few years. Devers is still young enough that a mega contract makes sense.

Xander - I think Story's signing gives us a pretty good bridge to Mayer. I love X, but I think he finds a better deal elsewhere.
Hernández - He's a sparkplug for sure, and a surprisingly great defensive outfielder, but I think he's replaceable. I'd like to se JBJ slide over to center and prioritize offense in the outfield next year.
Martinez - he's suddenly got 15 more suitors. Defensive liability. Pass.
Vazquez - I'm fine with rolling with Wong/Hernandez. Pass.

I'm assuming you mean defense with JBJ. Also, IMO the universal DH doesn't mean JDM has 15 more suitors. Some of those spots have already been filled and others won't be as teams may use that slot to either A) slide in their own aging or defensively challenged player or B) utilize a super sub for the purposes of rotating regular position players through the DH position to give guys additional days off in the field.

 

[jon abbey]

The Phillies are already drooling over signing JDM next winter and putting him at SS.

 

[Daniel_Son]

I'm assuming you mean defense with JBJ. Also, IMO the universal DH doesn't mean JDM has 15 more suitors. Some of those spots have already been filled and others won't be as teams may use that slot to either A) slide in their own aging or defensively challenged player or B) utilize a super sub for the purposes of rotating regular position players through the DH position to give guys additional days off in the field.

Sorry, should've been more clear re: JBJ. I'd like to see him start in center as a defensive stalwart and find a couple of real offensive threats for the corners.

 

[YTF]

Sorry, should've been more clear re: JBJ. I'd like to see him start in center as a defensive stalwart and find a couple of real offensive threats for the corners.

Gotcha

 

[JimD]

I voted for Xander/Raffy/Kike. I think the parameters you have up for each of them is quite reasonable, bordering on no-brainers. Now, if Raffy wants 10/350 or X wants 8/225 then it is a different story.

This is where I am. I'm actually OK with a slight overpay for both X and Raffy - after letting Mookie go they way they did, the Red Sox should in no way be at risk of losing these players because they haggled over a few million dollars. I hope that one or both retire as a Sox player. It's frustrating to see how many posters on this board so casually dismiss Bogaerts and Devers over the same repeated complaints about defense.

 

[Kliq]

This is where I am. I'm actually OK with a slight overpay for both X and Raffy - after letting Mookie go they way they did, the Red Sox should in no way be at risk of losing these players because they haggled over a few million dollars. I hope that one or both retire as a Sox player. It's frustrating to see how many posters on this board so casually dismiss Bogaerts and Devers over the same repeated complaints about defense.

For me, I'd like to keep X and Raffy even if it isn't an optimal use of money. There are 162 baseball games a year; I enjoy them a lot more when we have players I've grown to really like and appreciate. Maybe overpaying both guys hurts our projected win total a bit, but that is a sacrifice I'm willing to make. As much as I enjoy rooting for a winning team, it isn't the sole reason I like baseball. It's Papi and Manny and Nomar and Pedroia and Pedro. I obviously don't want a Miguel Cabrera-style albatross contract, but paying a little extra for X and Devers is a no-brainer for me.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

A big market team should not fear losing players in free agency, which means not making decisions before you actually have to do so. The only times I would sign any player to an extension is when they are young and you're giving them a long term guarantee in return for free agency years, or when a player wants an extension enough to sign for below market value. Signing a pitcher to an unnecessary extension in particular is just asking for TJ. Who knows what's going to happen to Xander, Kike, Eovaldi, etc this season. Better for everybody involved to make the decision when all the facts are in.

I would extend Devers.

 

[bsj]

Devers needed to be extended yesterday. Do it now.

 

[BigSoxFan]

A big market team should not fear losing players in free agency, which means not making decisions before you actually have to do so. The only times I would sign any player to an extension is when they are young and you're giving them a long term guarantee in return for free agency years, or when a player wants an extension enough to sign for below market value. Signing a pitcher to an unnecessary extension in particular is just asking for TJ. Who knows what's going to happen to Xander, Kike, Eovaldi, etc this season. Better for everybody involved to make the decision when all the facts are in.

I would extend Devers.

This is where I am. Devers is the only must extension for me. I want to see what happens with the rest unless you can get a meaningful discount (and we won't). As long as X doesn't materially impact the Devers extension talk, Devers is my sole target for now. I don't think he'll be an easy extension though given that he's an elite bat with iffy defense and his team will clearly value him at 3B, a position where he might not remain for much longer. But I absolutely want his bat on the Sox for the next 7-8 years.

 

[ehaz]

The current market rate extension for elite 3B (Arenado/Rendon) in their 20s is ~$30 - $35M per year. For DHs in their 30s (JD/Castellanos/Schwarber) it's about $20M per year. Maybe you can convince Devers to sign an extension that pays him as an elite 3B until his age 29/30 season and then drops off to $20M per year for the remainder of the contract. Include a player opt-out after year 5 to entice him to sign the deal. If he's still playing a passable 3B by then or can get paid better than an elite DH in his 30s, he'll be able to renegotiate/hit the open market.

 

[chawson]

I voted to extend Kiké and Eovaldi.

The path to signing Bogaerts at second seems to have precedent now. Star shortstops Marcus Semien, Trea Turner and Trevor Story have made that switch in the last year, and somewhat more humbly, Gleyber Torres too. Maybe one of he or Yorke could bounce to left in a few years, or he shifts to 3B (and Story back to 2B) when Mayer arrives and Devers DHs.

The banned shift will help Devers retain productivity as he ages, and even if he becomes a DH by 2026 or so, I’m fine with it. The universal DH will raise the going-rate salary for full-time DHs too, so this won’t seem like a dramatic overpay.

I think people still vastly underrate Kiké Hernández. From 6/20 on, after the sticky stuff ban and his post-injury slump, he posted a .280/.375/.549 line including the postseason. Couple that with plus-plus defense in center and that’s an elite player. He’s not especially old and the clubhouse presence looks valuable too. I’d happily give him Starling Marte money.

Eovaldi’s a slightly trickier case given his injury history, but I think he’s special and would pay up for him as well. Lot fewer innings on that arm relative to other 31-year-olds, and very few with his combination of velocity and command. Keeping him around would allow us to trade Houck, maybe for a catcher.

Pass on JDM and Vaz.

Signing all four (roughly $80-90 AAV?) should still leave us with a lot of space under the first CBT threshold.

 

[BravesField]

I'll never be convinced that signing Devers to a LT deal would make sense, and it's all because of his weight. 6'0 and weighing 240 is a lot of bulk on his joints.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

I'll never be convinced that signing Devers to a LT deal would make sense, and it's all because of his weight. 6'0 and weighing 240 is a lot of bulk on his joints.

I seem to recall another Red Sox left handed hitter from the Dominican Republic who was roughly the same weight. The guy I'm thinking of had a career year at the age of 40.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I seem to recall another Red Sox left handed hitter from the Dominican Republic who was roughly the same weight. The guy I'm thinking of had a career year at the age of 40.

Pablo Sandoval was from Venezuela.

(ducks)

 

[soxhop411]

Bogaerts turns down extension, not interesting in discussing during the year.

https://theathletic.com/news/xander-bogaerts-says-despite-red-sox-contract-offer-extension-wont-happen-this-season/iNnH6yW2ihPH/

ESPN with details

Boston offered Bogaerts an extension during the offseason, but the 29-year-old turned down the offer. According to team sources, Bogaerts asked for a contract that paid him in line with the game's highest-paid shortstops: Carlos Correa (who makes $35.1 million with the Minnesota Twins), Francisco Lindor (who makes $34.1 million with the New York Mets) and Corey Seager (who makes $33 million with the Texas Rangers).

Since Boston tapped Bloom to run the baseball operations department, the team has shown a reluctance toward extending large amounts of money across long periods of time for one player. That baseball operations philosophy informed the team's decision to trade Mookie Betts, who signed a 12-year, $365 million contract after being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Critics among the Boston media and fans have pejoratively named Bloom's Red Sox as Tampa Bay East, referring to the Rays' unwillingness to invest significant amounts of money during Bloom's time with the team from 2005 through 2019.

But according to front-office sources, the Red Sox are considering making Devers an exception to that philosophy. Because of Devers's youth compared to Bogaerts, the team sees a longer-term investment as a safer bet.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33692496/shortstop-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox-remain-odds-contract-ahead-season-opener

 

[Tim Salmon]

I seem to recall another Red Sox left handed hitter from the Dominican Republic who was roughly the same weight. The guy I'm thinking of had a career year at the age of 40.

Ehh, that guy was three inches taller and was a DH who was paid like a DH. If Devers wants J.D. Martinez's AAV, sign me up.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Ehh, that guy was three inches taller and was a DH who was paid like a DH. If Devers wants J.D. Martinez's AAV, sign me up.

I get your point about position, but what does it matter if Devers is 6’ or 6’ 3”? He’s still a big guy, we’re not talking about a 5’ 8” 175 lb player that would be more likely to wear down as he gets older.