BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Considering they are getting replacement (or below) level out of 5 spots in the lineup, "doing something" isn't going to save the season. They would have to acquire above average players for LF, CF, C and 3b. This assumes Vic comes back fully healthy. Drew presumably solves one position but there are no obvious fixes for the rest. Do you want to strip the farm in a desperate grab at the post season this year? It's just not a realistic possibility.
So, a couple things:
-You can get by with a couple holes in the lineup if you have solid players elsewhere. The Red Sox obviously have more than a couple holes, but a big problem is that no one is giving the star-level production to make up for it. Using sOPS+ (which adjusts their performance relative to the rest of the league at each position:
[tablegrid= Red Sox OPS+ by Position ]
| Position | 2013 sOPS+ | 2014 sOPS+ | Toronto 2014 |
| C | 125 | 84 | 86 |
| 1B | 117 | 101 | 148 |
| 2B | 122 | 116 | 95 |
| 3B | 85 | 97 | 112 |
| SS | 126 | 125 | 91 |
| LF | 116 | 96 | 132 |
| CF | 112 | 62 | 96 |
| RF | 108 | 51 | 150 |
| DH | 163 | 126 | 114 |
[/tablegrid]
So, you're seeing not only putrid production from CF and RF and a big drop at C, but also a drop at every position but 3B and holding steady at SS. For as much attention as the Ellsbury - JBJ move has gotten, the drop from Victorino 2013 to Victorino / Nava / Sizemore / etc 2014 has been bigger. But also, Ortiz last year was 63% better than the average DH -- this year it's just 26%.
Toronto has gotten below-average production out of 4 spots, but Encarnacion, Melky and Bautista have been 30% or more better than average for their positions, so they can get away with little out of the catcher spot.
For the Red Sox, there is good news and bad news. The good news is that there is low-hanging fruit and the offensive performance can be improved a lot by just a few things that I consider relatively likely (NOT having to "do something" by going outside the organization):
-Napoli and Victorino returning and staying healthy. This should get the RF production closer to average and the 1B production above average.
-Drew approximating his 2013 / career offensive performance. This would help the production at 3B by virtue of Xander moving over.
But the problem is at the following places, which are IMO less likely to improve
-AJP or Ross need to hit better. This may not happen but barring an injury you probably can't add anyone.
-Nava improving. Who knows but last night was encouraging (or Sizemore but I'm less bullish on that).
-JBJ. He may improve, he may not. The average AL CF is hitting .263/.328/.395. Can he get close to that? I'm not sure.
Finally, Ortiz is experiencing a big drop in production, and at his age it's not clear he'll pick it up or that expecting him to remain one of the ten best hitters in MLB was realistic. While he's still above-average, he's no longer making up for poor production at other spots. Nothing you can do abut this but it is a big reason for the drop in offense.
I guess my point with all this is that going outside the organization isn't really an option unless someone like Stanton is available (which they should look at anyway regardless of their chances this year). But, they should be expected to improve anyway. At three spots that they're weak, they have a MLB regular who just needs to get healthy (RF and 1B), or they've already made the move to improve (3B). At another (CF), they have a rookie who "should" be better, and finding a replacement who is an improvement and can also field is going to be impossible or expensive. At catcher they're basically stuck but these are veterans who again, could catch a hot streak if they're not toast.
It's not clear that this is enough to make up the ground they've given, or that it will even matter if they don't solve the back of the rotation.
