Second Guesser's Club - The Twins

Minneapolis Millers · May 13, 2014

I'm going to games 2 and 3, so I really want to see the usual Kevin Correia and the Good Buchholz.

absintheofmalaise · May 13, 2014

Hitter splits
[tablegrid= Splits vs. LHP ]Name PA BB% K% BB/K SB OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA Daniel Santana 3 0.00% 33.30% 0 0 0.667 0.667 1.333 0 1 1 0.7 0.595 Chris Parmelee 4 0.00% 25.00% 0 0 0.5 0.5 1 0 0.667 1 0.4 0.446 Kurt Suzuki 32 6.30% 9.40% 0.67 0 0.375 0.5 0.875 0.167 0.346 5 1.8 0.384 Chris Colabello 40 10.00% 30.00% 0.33 0 0.35 0.417 0.767 0.139 0.391 5 0.9 0.342 Aaron Hicks 38 18.40% 26.30% 0.7 0 0.368 0.323 0.691 0.097 0.333 4 0.2 0.323 Brian Dozier 51 9.80% 23.50% 0.42 0 0.294 0.413 0.707 0.196 0.226 6 0 0.315 Joe Mauer 56 12.50% 23.20% 0.54 0 0.375 0.286 0.661 0 0.389 6 -0.2 0.31 Trevor Plouffe 42 7.10% 21.40% 0.33 0 0.31 0.385 0.694 0.128 0.333 4 -0.2 0.308 Josmil Pinto 40 22.50% 22.50% 1 0 0.325 0.323 0.648 0.194 0.1 4 -0.2 0.306 Jason Kubel 36 8.30% 27.80% 0.3 0 0.306 0.313 0.618 0.094 0.318 3 -0.9 0.283 Eduardo Escobar 17 5.90% 23.50% 0.25 0 0.294 0.313 0.607 0.063 0.333 1 -0.5 0.273 Eduardo Nunez 4 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.5 0 0.25 0 -0.3 0.223 [/tablegrid]

[tablegrid= Splits vs. RHP ]Name PA BB% K% BB/K SB OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA Daniel Santana 17 5.90% 17.60% 0.33 0 0.412 0.563 0.974 0.188 0.462 3 1.5 0.424 Eduardo Escobar 51 3.90% 17.60% 0.22 0 0.38 0.596 0.976 0.234 0.421 10 4.1 0.417 Brian Dozier 124 18.50% 17.70% 1.05 0 0.395 0.454 0.849 0.206 0.254 20 6.2 0.378 Josmil Pinto 76 11.80% 21.10% 0.56 0 0.382 0.477 0.859 0.185 0.34 12 3.8 0.378 Joe Mauer 87 16.10% 19.50% 0.82 0 0.414 0.431 0.844 0.125 0.37 13 3.6 0.367 Eduardo Nunez 13 15.40% 15.40% 1 0 0.417 0.3 0.717 0 0.375 2 0.2 0.339 Kurt Suzuki 87 12.60% 5.70% 2.2 0 0.384 0.357 0.741 0.071 0.294 11 1.4 0.336 Jason Kubel 93 9.70% 36.60% 0.26 0 0.355 0.381 0.736 0.095 0.469 11 0.9 0.327 Trevor Plouffe 116 12.10% 25.90% 0.47 0 0.336 0.374 0.71 0.141 0.319 13 0.5 0.32 Chris Colabello 110 4.50% 30.00% 0.15 0 0.282 0.404 0.686 0.163 0.324 11 -1 0.302 Chris Parmelee 8 0.00% 25.00% 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.5 0 0.333 0 -0.6 0.223 Aaron Hicks 61 16.40% 27.90% 0.59 0 0.262 0.18 0.442 0.06 0.152 2 -4.4 0.221 [/tablegrid]

pokey_reese · May 13, 2014

I don't really know if Game 2 even really slants in our favor, given the gulf between Peavy's ERA and his FIP. That walk rate is a killer, though at least his main lucky charm this year has been on HR/FB, and he will be in a park that depresses HRs a bit...

absintheofmalaise · May 13, 2014

[tablegrid= Splits vs. RHP ] PA BB% K% BB/K SB OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA Mike Napoli 107 14.00% 25.20% 0.56 0 0.383 0.495 0.878 0.22 0.339 18 6.1 0.387 A.J. Pierzynski 80 5.00% 17.50% 0.29 0 0.363 0.48 0.843 0.16 0.362 12 3.3 0.367 Dustin Pedroia 114 7.90% 12.30% 0.64 0 0.342 0.381 0.723 0.095 0.322 13 0.9 0.324 David Ortiz 94 12.80% 13.80% 0.92 0 0.351 0.415 0.766 0.159 0.273 11 0.7 0.323 Will Middlebrooks 45 11.10% 22.20% 0.5 0 0.333 0.361 0.694 0.194 0.167 5 0.3 0.323 Mike Carp 35 11.40% 17.10% 0.67 0 0.343 0.355 0.698 0.097 0.32 4 0.1 0.316 Jackie Bradley Jr 82 15.90% 25.60% 0.62 0 0.354 0.319 0.672 0.087 0.333 9 -0.4 0.308 Grady Sizemore 81 8.60% 17.30% 0.5 0 0.296 0.356 0.652 0.123 0.271 7 -1.5 0.29 Shane Victorino 42 7.10% 21.40% 0.33 0 0.286 0.324 0.61 0.108 0.276 3 -1.3 0.273 Xander Bogaerts 95 11.60% 28.40% 0.41 0 0.316 0.265 0.581 0.048 0.321 7 -3 0.273 Jonny Gomes 48 8.30% 29.20% 0.29 0 0.271 0.341 0.612 0.146 0.25 4 -1.6 0.271 Jonathan Herrera 35 11.40% 22.90% 0.5 0 0.303 0.207 0.51 0 0.286 2 -1.9 0.246 David Ross 17 0.00% 35.30% 0 0 0.118 0.176 0.294 0.059 0.182 -1 -2.5 0.128 [/tablegrid]

[tablegrid= Splits vs. LHP ] PA BB% K% BB/K SB OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA David Ortiz 60 15.00% 18.30% 0.82 0 0.4 0.592 0.992 0.306 0.286 11 4.7 0.415 Xander Bogaerts 49 14.30% 18.40% 0.78 0 0.449 0.475 0.924 0.15 0.4 9 3.8 0.414 Dustin Pedroia 55 14.50% 7.30% 2 0 0.4 0.511 0.911 0.213 0.31 10 3.6 0.399 Mike Napoli 45 24.40% 24.40% 1 0 0.467 0.364 0.83 0.091 0.409 7 2.4 0.383 David Ross 24 16.70% 37.50% 0.44 0 0.333 0.55 0.883 0.35 0.222 4 1.3 0.382 Jonny Gomes 46 15.20% 26.10% 0.58 0 0.37 0.462 0.831 0.205 0.32 7 2 0.369 Shane Victorino 21 4.80% 19.00% 0.25 0 0.4 0.444 0.844 0.056 0.467 3 0.9 0.366 Will Middlebrooks 23 8.70% 30.40% 0.29 0 0.348 0.381 0.729 0.095 0.429 2 -0.1 0.31 Grady Sizemore 27 11.10% 22.20% 0.5 0 0.296 0.375 0.671 0.167 0.235 3 -0.3 0.302 Jackie Bradley Jr 46 6.50% 32.60% 0.2 0 0.283 0.341 0.624 0.146 0.308 4 -1.2 0.281 Mike Carp 5 0.00% 40.00% 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0 0.333 0 -0.5 0.178 A.J. Pierzynski 31 0.00% 16.10% 0 0 0.2 0.154 0.354 0 0.174 0 -3.5 0.167 Jonathan Herrera 11 0.00% 18.20% 0 0 0.2 0.111 0.311 0 0.143 0 -1.3 0.162 [/tablegrid]

Reverend · May 13, 2014

I know it's SSS and all, but what the fuck is going on with Ortiz's splits this year? He's murdering lefties while his performance against righties has dropped off.

Also, does anyone know of any studies about splits in developmental context for players? I was thinking about this given how pronounced Bogaerts's splits are, and also glancing at JBJ's. Is it common for players to come into the majors with heavy splits and then they converge over time (the degree varying from player to player) or do they tend to stay pretty constant across careers?

I don't even mean just looking at this early SSS for the rookies, but rather at what point in a career do we expect splits to be stable in assessing a player and what the time frames for such are. (If there isn't existing research on this [at least publicly available], that could be a helluva project for someone to get their name on the map and move towards a job at FG or BPro, by the way. Might even be able to double it up as a college thesis or something. But I'll defer to jnai who's been looking at the seminar abstracts as to what makes a good project these days.)

Nuf Ced · May 13, 2014

Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp 5m
The Red Sox have flipped their probable starters: Jake Peavy pitches tonight, Felix Doubront Wednesday. Buchholz still Thursday as planned.

absintheofmalaise · May 13, 2014

Reverend said:
I know it's SSS and all, but what the fuck is going on with Ortiz's splits this year? He's murdering lefties while his performance against righties has dropped off.

Also, does anyone know of any studies about splits in developmental context for players? I was thinking about this given how pronounced Bogaerts's splits are, and also glancing at JBJ's. Is it common for players to come into the majors with heavy splits and then they converge over time (the degree varying from player to player) or do they tend to stay pretty constant across careers?

I don't even mean just looking at this early SSS for the rookies, but rather at what point in a career do we expect splits to be stable in assessing a player and what the time frames for such are. (If there isn't existing research on this [at least publicly available], that could be a helluva project for someone to get their name on the map and move towards a job at FG or BPro, by the way. Might even be able to double it up as a college thesis or something. But I'll defer to jnai who's been looking at the seminar abstracts as to what makes a good project these days.)

Here are a couple of articles that talk about this rev. They have links to other articles and studies. BPro. Fangraphs.

metaprosthesis · May 13, 2014

pokey_reese said:
I don't really know if Game 2 even really slants in our favor, given the gulf between Peavy's ERA and his FIP. That walk rate is a killer, though at least his main lucky charm this year has been on HR/FB, and he will be in a park that depresses HRs a bit...

His HR/FB is actually higher so far this year (13.0%) than his career number (9.6%) or any single year other than 2003. Here's an interesting article that talks a bit about Peavy's approach this year. There's no real conclusion, just a discussion of observable patterns from the young season.

absintheofmalaise · May 13, 2014

Line ups:

Pedroia 2B
Victorino RF
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Sizemore LF
Pierzynski C
Bogaerts SS
Middlebrooks 3B
Bradley Jr. CF
Peavy RHP

Dozier 2B
Mauer 1B
Plouffe 3B
Kubell LF
Suzuki C
Parmelee RF
Nunez DH
Escobar SS
Santana CF
Nolasco RHP

nattysez · May 13, 2014

Every metric said that Peavy was likely to regress. If he can't handle Minny, what kind of ugliness is going to happen against Detroit? It was overmanaging to flip-flop he and Doubront at this point in the season, and that move looks especially foolhardy now.

metaprosthesis · May 13, 2014

How is it "overmanaging" or "foolhardy" to arrange for more rest for the pitchers that have been worked hardest (Lackey and Lester)? Because that's what Farrell said was the reason for the switch in the interview that was shown during this game.

teddywingman · May 14, 2014

metaprosthesis said:
How is it "overmanaging" or "foolhardy" to arrange for more rest for the pitchers that have been worked hardest (Lackey and Lester)? Because that's what Farrell said was the reason for the switch in the interview that was shown during this game.

I don't know that it was "overmanaging" either, but do Lackey and Lester get an extra day off by switching Doubront and Peavy?

CoRP · May 14, 2014

Reverend said:
I know it's SSS and all, but what the fuck is going on with Ortiz's splits this year? He's murdering lefties while his performance against righties has dropped off.

He must have read your post.

metaprosthesis · May 14, 2014

teddywingman said:
I don't know that it was "overmanaging" either, but do Lackey and Lester get an extra day off by switching Doubront and Peavy?

This is a fine question. I think that I conflated Farrell's comments about swapping the starters and not skipping Doubront for the off day. If they hadn't switched, the rotation would go Doubront (Tues), Peavy (Wed), Buchholz (Thurs), Lester (Fri), Lackey (Sat), Doubront (Sun), Off day (Mon). With the switch, Peavy pitches Sunday instead of Doubront, which would allow them to skip Doubront if they wanted. Farrell said he wouldn't skip Doubront, even with the day off. So, the switch is relevant (it created the potential to skip Doubront), but not as relevant as I made it seem in my prior comment.

WenZink · May 14, 2014

Just a thought: By switching Peavy with Doubront, they aligned Doobie's pitch day with Allen Webster down at Pawtucket. Webster has been pitching well and today went 5.2 IP, allowing 2 ER on 4 H, 2 BB with 9 K, and they stretched him out to 105 pitches, which was surprising since Webster had a 37 pitch 1st inning.

Just a coincidence?

And I realize none of the Sox pitching staff has options, so I'm unsure as to any required personnel move.

absintheofmalaise · May 14, 2014

Line ups:

Pedroia 4
Victorino 9
Ortiz DH
Napoli 3
Sizemore 7
Pierzynski 2
Bogaerts 6
Middlebrooks 5
Bradley 8
Doubront LHP

Dozier 4
Mauer 3
Plouffe 5
Parmalee 9
Suzuki DH
Pinto 2
Nunez 7
Escobar 6
Hicks 8
Correia RHP

teddywingman · May 14, 2014

That just does not look like a good line up right now.

mfried · May 14, 2014

teddywingman said:
That just does not look like a good line up right now.

And a better lineup available to the Red Sox (short of resigning Drew) is...?

teddywingman · May 14, 2014

mfried said:
And a better lineup available to the Red Sox (short of resigning Drew) is...?

I wasn't suggesting there's a better option tonight.

absintheofmalaise · May 15, 2014

Sox line up:

Pedroia 4
Bogaerts 6
Ortiz DH
Napoli 3
Gomes 9
Carp 7
Ross 2
Middlebrooks 5
Bradley Jr. 8
Buchholz RHP

absintheofmalaise · May 15, 2014

Twins:

Dozier 4
Mauer DH
Plouffe 5
Colabello 3
Kubel 7
Suzuki 2
Parmalee 9
Hicks 8
Escobar 6
Hughes RHP

Reverend · May 15, 2014

What happened to Victorino?

Carp sucks. I want to see a professional hitter in there.

DanoooME · May 15, 2014

Vic's probably getting the day off after a night game like the catchers do.

joe dokes · May 15, 2014

DanoooME said:
Vic's probably getting the day off after a night game like the catchers do.

I thought at one point he looked a bit hobbled. But then again, he looks like he's one day removed from a car accident every time he makes an exertion play in the OF.

Rudy's Curve · May 15, 2014

What's the point of pinch running for Ortiz when he's not the tying run? The only advantage gained is the potential of beating a force play and there's no way that outweighs the loss of his bat if the game were to reach extra innings.

HillysLastWalk · May 15, 2014

Rudy's Curve said:
What's the point of pinch running for Ortiz when he's not the tying run? The only advantage gained is the potential of beating a force play and there's no way that outweighs the loss of his bat if the game were to reach extra innings.

Came here to say the same exact thing. Now that it's tied, and they are about to reach the top of the order again ... it would be nice to have Ortiz in the 10th (that's if it makes it that far).

To make matters worse, everything was station to station. Ortiz would have scored all the same.

ToeKneeArmAss · May 15, 2014

HillysLastWalk said:
Came here to say the same exact thing. Now that it's tied, and they are about to reach the top of the order again ... it would be nice to have Ortiz in the 10th (that's if it makes it that far).

To make matters worse, everything was station to station. Ortiz would have scored all the same.

Me three. I understand that Herrera is more likely to keep you out of the double play, but how likely is it that that will be a deciding factor in the game? Glad Herrera reached in the 10th, but sure would have preferred to see Papi at the plate there.

ToeKneeArmAss · May 15, 2014

Why the FUCK do you throw Hicks a fastball strike there? You've got a base open and the nine hitter on deck. Get the guy to hack at a front-door slider, or to take a back-door slider. But challenging him with a fastball strike? That's awful pitch-calling imo.

rembrat · May 15, 2014

ToeKneeArmAss said:
Why the FUCK do you throw Hicks a fastball strike there? You've got a base open and the nine hitter on deck. Get the guy to hack at a front-door slider, or to take a back-door slider. But challenging him with a fastball strike? That's awful pitch-calling imo.

I think that's just Miller's personality. He is proud of his fastball and he's going to throw it anywhere he wants. Did you see the first 2 pitches to Parmelee? Right in his wheelhouse and that's the guy that took him deep 2 nights ago.

Pozo the Clown · May 15, 2014

Other than a "I want to limit his innings" rationale, I've never understood why managers, while on the road, save their closer for a save situation. Once the bottom of the 9th comes around in a tie game, there can be no higher leverage situation.

HriniakPosterChild · May 15, 2014

Pozo the Clown said:
Other than a "I want to limit his innings" rationale, I've never understood why managers, while on the road, save their closer for a save situation. Once the bottom of the 9th comes around in a tie game, there can be no higher leverage situation.

OK, use your closer on the road in the 9th.

You have to trust someone in your pen to get 3 outs without blowing the 1-run lead your hitters will get you at some point, right? So why can't that guy pitch the 9th?

Rasputin · May 15, 2014

I'm starting to think we're only going to win 99 games this year.

Pozo the Clown · May 15, 2014

The point is to use your best reliever in the highest leverage situations. I'd rather have Koji pitch the bottom of the 9th (or 10th or 11th...) in a tie game on the road and have Andrew Miller pitch with a lead (if you ever get there) than to keep Koji on the bullpen bench hoping that the lesser reliever (Miller) can survive the higher leverage situation.

ToeKneeArmAss · May 15, 2014

rembrat said:
I think that's just Miller's personality. He is proud of his fastball and he's going to throw it anywhere he wants. Did you see the first 2 pitches to Parmelee? Right in his wheelhouse and that's the guy that took him deep 2 nights ago.

Sure, but he had thrown some pretty nasty sliders in this outing alone. Six of the 21 pitches that preceded the fateful (fatal?) fastball to Hicks, with the following outcomes:

Foul, Swinging Strike, In play, out(s), Called Strike, Swinging Strike, Foul Ball.

So he's clearly got another pitch he can trust.

And a quick trip to the ever-valuable brooksbaseball.net reveals this about Hicks' propensities:

In 2014:
Against All Fastballs (261 seen), he has had a good eye (1.18 d'; 59% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 17% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and an exceptionally patient approach at the plate (0.37 c) with a below average likelihood to swing and miss (13% whiff/swing).

Against Breaking Pitches (90 seen), he has had a very good eye (1.05 d'; 38% swing rate at pitches in the zone vs. 9% swing rate at pitches out of the zone) and an exceptionally patient approach at the plate (0.84 c) with a league average likelihood to swing and miss (35% whiff/swing).

So you're not likely to get him to miss a fastball, but you might get him to miss a breaking pitch in the zone or take it. So I revise my prior "WTF?" post to say - "Throw the backdoor slider!"

absintheofmalaise · May 15, 2014

BMac just said that Ross told him he talked Miller into throwing a FB there.

Al Zarilla · May 15, 2014

joe dokes said:
I thought at one point he looked a bit hobbled. But then again, he looks like he's one day removed from a car accident every time he makes an exertion play in the OF.

You mean one day in the past or one day in the future?

Al Zarilla · May 15, 2014

DanoooME said:
Vic's probably getting the day off after a night game like the catchers do.

I laughed. Sadly.

Al Zarilla · May 15, 2014

Rudy's Curve said:
What's the point of pinch running for Ortiz when he's not the tying run? The only advantage gained is the potential of beating a force play and there's no way that outweighs the loss of his bat if the game were to reach extra innings.

Tito learned that lesson a long time ago, and thank God didn't pinch run for Ortiz in 2004 ALCS game 5 (bottom 12). 86 years might have become longer. I don't think Tito ever pinch ran for Ortiz in close games.

HriniakPosterChild · May 15, 2014

Al Zarilla said:
Tito learned that lesson a long time ago, and thank God didn't pinch run for Ortiz in 2004 ALCS game 5 (bottom 12). 86 years might have become longer. I don't think Tito ever pinch ran for Ortiz in close games.

Sutcliffe said it was a mistake on the broadcast, too. "You've got your closer in the game! You've got to make something happen!"

HriniakPosterChild · May 15, 2014

Pozo the Clown said:
The point is to use your best reliever in the highest leverage situations. I'd rather have Koji pitch the bottom of the 9th (or 10th or 11th...) in a tie game on the road and have Andrew Miller pitch with a lead (if you ever get there) than to keep Koji on the bullpen bench hoping that the lesser reliever (Miller) can survive the higher leverage situation.

Well, there you go. Maybe JF was saving Koji for a later inning when better hitters would be coming to the plate.

I was giving you the conventional wisdom because you seemed to be asking for some rationale for not pitching Koji in the 9th during a tie on the road. CW isn't always wrong (nor always right). But it's not mindless just because it's conventional.

czar · May 15, 2014

Let's ignore the fact that Koji's velocity is down and has been overworked by the team (even with his "shoulder" vacation) over the first 6 weeks of the season.

You guys are all aware that Andrew Miller has actually been a marginally better pitcher than Koji this year by some metrics, right?

I mean, he has a 1.50 SIERA and a 27/4 K/BB in 18 innings without noticeable platoon splits. He's been one of the best RP in baseball this year and is one of the top-5 non-closers in baseball since the start of 2012. It's not like the Sox were throwing Alfredo Aceves out there.

ToeKneeArmAss · May 15, 2014

FWIW, I'm ok with not using Koji. On the road you can't win unless you get a lead and then shut down the opponent.

So first, get a lead. Then, Koji.

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