After the Pat's win declare the Rams and Saints co-losers. Problem solved.
Not really fair that the Saints also miss out on a "Superbowl Participant" Banner.
I wonder if the Offensive philosophy has something to do with being able to outnumber/ dictate to the opponent.
Against the Pats I think most would agree the way to win is flood the field with cover guys, take Edelman and Gronk away (probably doubling 1 of them), and Get pressure with 4 or 5 and hope they can get to Brady before he can win with White/Hogan/Dorsett.
There really is no way for the Pats to overwhelm that kind of defense. They have to hope that Edelman or Gronk can win a Double team or that W/H/D can win an individual matchup. All while the OL holds up and before Brady gets gotten too.
<Also an interesting aside...
Top 10 Rushers averaged 109 attempts per fumble. (Michel was on this pace with 209 and 2) and they averaged 4.44 Yards per rush (Michel was 4.5)
Top 10 Qbs averaged 54 throws per INT. and 7.63 Yards per attempt (Brady was 51 and 7.6)
Its also fair to point out that ALL fumbles are not loss of possesion, while ALL interceptions are.
So while throwing is more of a "Chunk play" they both lead to the same amount of Yards/TOs.
I think its also relatively safer to say that the drop off after the top 10 Qbs is slightly bigger then the drop off of the top 10 RBs.
Finally this does not take into account sacks or Fumbles by the QB or WR
after reception which lead to negative yards or loss of possesion.
Now I wont necessarily argue that running is as good as passing in todays NFL....but I dont think its as far off as we think and I believe BB has determined that its close enough that "dedicating the 1st half" towards the running game evens out and of these sligh negatives by providing better effects later in the game.>
But you can Overwhelm 4-5 DLs and 6 Cover guys. Just not passing.
1. If a team has a nickel/dime/6 or 7 DBs and can get pressure with 4/5DL that makes throwing really tough (obv). And probably increases the INT chances.
2.
Used to be that not many teams could do that. Scottish Game being an exception and at least in part became a blue print on how to stop a high powered throwing offense. Teams soon learned that having 5 guys bring pressure and 6 guys cover was a good way to win.
3. The TE in General, and Great Gronk in particular (and this year pretty good Gronk) can be a great weapon to counteract this, in that with Devlin (optional or Allen) you can now flip the script and out number the DL (5+1+1 Blockers) and hopefully get a running back loose in the secondary consistantly.
3b. Interesting aside that often a Great Pass Rusher (just the guy you want to counter NFL Passing offenses) are often not very good Run stoppers (obv exceptions apply).
3c. Devlin/Allen (and obv "Good Gronk") can make just enough catches to keep a defense honest.
4. Pretty certain that with 5/6/7 DBs your not busting a 40 yard plus gain running the ball, but 5+ yards seems quite likely.
5. Running It wears out the DL, as we have talked about by being the Hitee as opposed to the hitter. Plus if a DE does try to loop out wide one blocker can pretty easily take him out of the running play which allows the other Blockers (4+1+1) to block the DL and get into the secondary and hit 190-200# ers and spring big gains.
6. On top of "wearing out the DL" you also in theory could "wear out" DBs. Getting hit by 250-320# guys has to take a toll on DBs.
7. This all allows you "control the clock". I am not saying that its specifically about TOP, which is a strategic win, but rather controlling possessions at a more
tactical level. Maybe you go into a Hurry up in an effort to gain a 2 for 1 possession (think NBA). Then you slow back down to burn 3:47 off the clock before the end of half.
8. As another poster mentioned more Reps FROM the defense allows you to see the entire (or a larger chunk) of their intentions.
9. This hopefully Allows you to rack up a significant lead in Plays over your opponent. which allows your defense to be fresher and therefore more effective in a close game in the 4th. Meanwhile they are just the opposite.
10. With the right personnel you can also feel fairly confident that you can maintain possessions and reduce turnovers. Whereas even with a great QB Interceptions are incredibly hard to predict and avoid (Think off Gronks and Edelmans hands).
11. After STARTING with this philosophy in the second half late 3rd qtr you can then switch to the short passing attack the Pats have mastered, but now with..
a. A tired opposing Pass Rush
b. A banged up opposing secondary
c. Hopefully the lead
d. A different look then what the defense has been dealing with all day
e. a fresher QB and wr Corp. (they havent been hit as much as say the RB who now sits on the bench having done his job of dishing and sustaining punishment)
f. a defensive team unsure if the TE is Still Blocking or now part of the passing game play to play.
g. Potentially a "well set up clock management situation" (for instance a 10-20 pt lead with 10 mins to play).
h. an Idea (and 1 hr of study) of what the defense was planning to do to stop you coming in.
Obviously any plan requires you to execute. BB would reiterate this.
In short it seems like the last couple games have been a situation of "shortening" the game in regards to Running (especially with Michel). Not so much in the game itself as essentially telling Michel "Give me everything you have in the first half...dont worry about the 2nd." Basically giving him a games worth of work over the first 35 minutes or so.
You then replace him with White/Burkhead (who are fresh) and fit your "2nd half passing scheme" better anyway.
Meanwhile the guys he (and the OL) has been hammering on all game (Defense) now have "increased responsibilities" (IE Pass Coverage) along with increased Fatigue and wear and tear.
All in an effort to put your self in a position to win (or salt it away) in the last 15-20 mins of the game.
its like the old NBA joke. I dont watch whole games.....I just watch the last 3 mins.
to my simple eyes BB has come up with a strategic plan that allows him to weaken the opponent, gain the lead, "control the clock" (whatever form that takes) all while keeping your guys on defense, QB, WRs, Pass Catching RBs) relatively fresh in comparison. All in an effort to "win early" if possible, but "win late" as a necessity.
All plans have flaws. So...
1. If the other team jumps out to a big lead you probably cant afford to wait to long and need to start throwing more. Of course there is probably something else going on if this happens (see #3 Turnovers)
2. If The defense stops the run well without selling out especially in a 4 or 5 man front, But its good bet that this is not the NORM in the NFL, nor can an opposing coach ignore the ability of the Pats to switch back to a short passing attack.
3. Turnovers, which can ruin any offensive plan.
4. Injuries to key personnel (Not even as essential as Brady per se) but think Michel is hurt or unavailable or Devlin or Gronk or Mason gets hurt 3 mins it. Again can ruin any plan.
5. An exceptional individual performance or talent by/on the opposition. Say a LB who can single up Gronk and also stuff the run. Or that DL man who blows up runs and is in Bradys face all day.
Obviously as Ike said "Plans are useless but Planning is indispensable". Which I take to mean that not every part of your plan is going to go "according to plan" but that even if only a part of it does it puts you in a better situation to win.