Rule 5: The 2023 40-man Roster Thread

LoLsapien

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The 2022 trade deadline has come and gone. We've got some new players here, and others that are newly departed:
So far:

Added to MLB team:
Pham
McGuire
Hosmer

Subtracted from MLB team:
Vazquez
Diekman

Added to farm:
PTBNL from White Sox
Enmanuel Valdez (LoL note: Rule 5 eligible)
Wilyer Abreu. (LoL note: Rule 5 eligible)
Max Ferguson
Corey Rosier

Subtracted from farm:
Groome (LoL note: Rule 5 eligible)
PTBNL to Reds

Did I forget anything?

At the end of this season, we'll either re-sign the following players, or lose them to free agency:
Spotrac Red Sox 2023 Unrestricted Free Agents

And we have these players that are already signed to the Major League team for next year: Spotrac 2023 Red Sox Payroll

However, the real impetus for me to start this thread is that we also have a great number of players in the minors who are eligible to be selected by other teams in the December Rule 5 draft, and we just net-acquired another Rule 5 eligible player (in the Hosmer trade):
Sox Prospects Rule 5 Eligibility

As many of you are likely aware, players in the minor league system that are signed after the age of 18, and have been in the minor league system for 5 years, must be elevated to the team's 40-man roster or risk being scooped up by a different team that has room on their 40-man roster (to wit, how we acquired a certain Garrett Whitlock). I'm not super familiar with the players in our minor league system, and am dependent on the excellent reports from the likes of Cesar Crespo and others. But, there's definitely some names on that list that I recognize as being various folks' binkies, and I'm curious how folks would suggest that Bloom consider managing his 40-man roster to protect some of these players, and which players you would choose to protect. I've seen some discussion of this topic in other threads, but not all in one place, and figure it merits conversation. Thanks all! *Apologies if the spoiler doesn't format correctly, I was kind of curious how this function would work.*
 

amfox1

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I think the decisions are pretty easy this season. Here are my thoughts:

40-man status as of Aug 3 (40 on 40-man roster, incl Hosmer, 4 on 60-day IL)

2022 FAs (7) - Eovaldi, Hill, Wacha, Strahm, E.Hernandez, JDMartinez, Plawecki
2022 opt-outs/options (7) - Bogaerts(p), Sale(p), Hosmer(p), Paxton(t), Bradley(m), Sawamura(m), Pham(m)
Under control (30)

Assuming Bogaerts opts out, Sale, Paxton and Hosmer come back and the mutual options are not exercised, there will be 6 open 40-man spots and 4 open 26-man spots, after assuming Casas will take one of the 26-man/40-man spots (see below).

SP Sale, FA, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock/Crawford
RP Houck, Barnes, Schreiber, Crawford/Whitlock, Taylor, A.Davis, Brasier, Danish
Lineup Duran (OF), Story (SS), Devers (3B), Casas (DH), Hosmer (1B), FA (OF), Verdugo (OF), FA (C), FA (2B)
Bench Dalbec, Arroyo, Refsnyder, McGuire
Not on 26-man roster (11): Seabold, Winckowski, Mata, Bello, D.Hernandez, Ort, Wong, Cordero, Downs, R.Hernandez, Davis, Y.Sanchez

I assume Brasier and Danish will be DFA'd to make room for bullpen upgrades (there could be others) and Y.Sanchez and Davis will be DFA'd to clear a spot for prospects (R.Hernandez, D.Hernandez and Ort could also be DFA'd to clear spots for prospect upgrades/Rule 5/etc.). That leaves four open 40-man/non 26-man spots for prospects.

Locks: Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, Ceddanne Rafaela

Upgrades on current 40-man players?: Thaddeus Ward, Frank German, Wikelman Gonzalez, Enmanuel Valdez

On the outside, looking in: Gilberto Jimenez, Ryan Fitzgerald, Christian Koss, David Hamilton, Eddinson Paulino, Brainer Bonaci, Victor Santos, Wilyer Abreu

Wild card: Noah Song
 

Manzivino

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I think the decisions are pretty easy this season. Here are my thoughts:

40-man status as of Aug 3 (40 on 40-man roster, incl Hosmer, 4 on 60-day IL)

2022 FAs (7) - Eovaldi, Hill, Wacha, Strahm, E.Hernandez, JDMartinez, Plawecki
2022 opt-outs/options (7) - Bogaerts(p), Sale(p), Hosmer(p), Paxton(t), Bradley(m), Sawamura(m), Pham(m)
Under control (30)

Assuming Bogaerts opts out, Sale, Paxton and Hosmer come back and the mutual options are not exercised, there will be 6 open 40-man spots and 4 open 26-man spots, after assuming Casas will take one of the 26-man/40-man spots (see below).

SP Sale, FA, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock/Crawford
RP Houck, Barnes, Schreiber, Crawford/Whitlock, Taylor, A.Davis, Brasier, Danish
Lineup Duran (OF), Story (SS), Devers (3B), Casas (DH), Hosmer (1B), FA (OF), Verdugo (OF), FA (C), FA (2B)
Bench Dalbec, Arroyo, Refsnyder, McGuire
Not on 26-man roster (11): Seabold, Winckowski, Mata, Bello, D.Hernandez, Ort, Wong, Cordero, Downs, R.Hernandez, Davis, Y.Sanchez

I assume Brasier and Danish will be DFA'd to make room for bullpen upgrades (there could be others) and Y.Sanchez and Davis will be DFA'd to clear a spot for prospects (R.Hernandez, D.Hernandez and Ort could also be DFA'd to clear spots for prospect upgrades/Rule 5/etc.). That leaves four open 40-man/non 26-man spots for prospects.

Locks: Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, Ceddanne Rafaela

Upgrades on current 40-man players?: Thaddeus Ward, Frank German, Wikelman Gonzalez, Enmanuel Valdez

On the outside, looking in: Gilberto Jimenez, Ryan Fitzgerald, Christian Koss, David Hamilton, Eddinson Paulino, Brainer Bonaci, Victor Santos, Wilyer Abreu

Wild card: Noah Song
Agree with your locks. Thoughts on the rest:

I would be very surprised if German isn’t added. He’s young (24 this season), he throws high 90’s with command and he’s getting great results in AAA. He fits the profile of an attractive Rule 5 pick to a T.

Ward has come back well from TJ this season, if he finishes strong I think he’s a lock. Same with Valdez as long as he keeps hitting for the next 6 weeks, not worth the risk of someone taking a flier on a major league ready bat with the universal DH.

Gonzalez is so far away and has been unspectacular in Salem. I think it’s worth the risk to expose him, he has no shot at being effective in MLB next year and its unlikely anyone is going to waste a roster spot on him all year.
 

nvalvo

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I don't think we should just assume that Hosmer will still be on the 40-man by December. Or maybe to put it another way, having Hosmer, Dalbec and Casas all on the 40-man this winter may not be an ideal outcome.
 

A Bad Man

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I think both Abreu and Valdez make it; Valdez’s year is too strong, and Abreu is OF talent we badly need. Abreu pushes Jimenez out, probably
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Isn’t R. Hernandez out of options? If so, I’d imagine he gets traded. Taylor seems like a potential DFA; and I think one of Winckowski and Seabold to be moved. OF has to be the priority this year, IMO. What do they do with JbJ? He stinks but that buyout is rough.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think both Abreu and Valdez make it; Valdez’s year is too strong, and Abreu is OF talent we badly need. Abreu pushes Jimenez out, probably
Jimenez was already on the out list but I don't think Wong or Cordero are locks to make the roster either. Or Downs, depending on how the rest of the year goes. That's less likely because he's attached to Betts but heh.

I'd maybe look to add Paulino and Luis De La Rosa but they are so far away they probably won't get drafted. Abreu is close, so adding him would make sense. I'd probably add them over 3 of Ort/Darwin/Wong/Cordero but I could see picking the latter group as they be more likely to get drafted. I just don't think it's a particularly good group.

edit: Think I misread the list a little. I'd be adding Valdez too.

Side note: The Red Sox are still paying Manny Ramirez 2 million a year. Not exactly Bobby Bonilla but it's been 14 years.
 

billy ashley

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think most of what's written here is well reasoned but two factors to watch:

-I think it's unlikely Story plays SS next year. His arm is dead. That could impact the roster, a bit
-I have to imagine there will be trade activity this off-season. I imagine Boston will be buying, which means offloading several prospects or cheap assets (Duran very likely will be in this conversation. I don't think they trust his glove).
 

Cesar Crespo

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My 40
Positional Players on 26
Hosmer
Story
Xander or FA (I think they have a chance of keeping him)
Devers
Duran
Verdugo
FA (OF)
McGuire
JD Martinez (unless he completely tanks, they offer the QO and he takes it.) /FA. JD Martinez for 1 year isn't terrible, assuming he rebounds some this year.
Dalbec
Refsnyder,
R. Hernandez
Arroyo
Starting Pitchers
Sale
Pivetta
Crawford
Whitlock
Paxton
Eovaldi (Sox accept QO, he takes it)/FA. I'll assume there will be plenty of starts to go around between 6 SP due to injuries. One of Crawford/Whitlock will move to the pen when fully healthy.
Relief Pitchers
Schreiber
Houck
Barnes
Davis
Taylor
FA/40 man pitcher?
FA/40 man pitcher?
Definite 40
Winckowski
Seabold
Bello
Mata
Casas
Walter
Murphy
Rafaela
Valdez
Probably (or my picks)
Abreu
Downs
Paulino
Ward
German


Talented players left exposed: W. Gonzalez, De La Rosa, Brainer, Gilberto, Koss, Song. Wong, Cordero. Probably a few others.

I'd have to agree with Amfox1 (not necessarily with all 40 roster spots), I don't think there is that much of a crunch unless one is particularly attached to players. Most of the players I left exposed are at the lower levels (outside of Wong and Cordero) and it's hard to see a team carrying them for an entire year, Koss doesn't strike me as anything great. I could have completely overlooked someone though. The team could also decide to bring in a C but Paulino is probably in no real danger of being drafted either. They could also go with a 1b other than Dalbec and or Hosmer. If one keeps Wong and Cordero, it gets a little trickier as someone may very well take Downs or Abreu. Though if Downs continues to be a strike out machine, let them.
 

grimshaw

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Locks: Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, Ceddanne Rafaela

Upgrades on current 40-man players?: Thaddeus Ward, Frank German, Wikelman Gonzalez, Enmanuel Valdez

On the outside, looking in: Gilberto Jimenez, Ryan Fitzgerald, Christian Koss, David Hamilton, Eddinson Paulino, Brainer Bonaci, Victor Santos, Wilyer Abreu
I would think there would be little chance Wikelman Gonzalez gets claimed no?
I have a feeling the Sox have buried him in Low A so no team would want him for next season.

Abreu might be the only guy who could get snagged out of that outside looking in crew. Everyone else in that category is either not advanced enough yet, or basically organizational filler.
 

Rovin Romine

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I think we need to keep the calendar in mind here as well.

Major and minor league free agents are released in late Oct. or early Nov. They can sign right away if they want to.

To protect a player, they need to be on the 40 man as of Nov. 20.

The draft happens during the winter meetings - usually the first week of December.

You can sign FAs at any point, including after the draft. So theoretically, AFAIK, you could put a minor leaguer on the 40 man on Nov. 19, then take them off the day after the draft, 20 days later.
 

Archer1979

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One thing about the predictions for the Rule V draft is that, and this is me really hoping, but any free agent signings will need to hit the 40 man roster. Obviously hoping for some DFA's of some of the flotsam on the team (but that will mean eating a fair amount of salary).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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One thing about the predictions for the Rule V draft is that, and this is me really hoping, but any free agent signings will need to hit the 40 man roster. Obviously hoping for some DFA's of some of the flotsam on the team (but that will mean eating a fair amount of salary).
So there’s got to be some kind of strategy in how you place guys on here, based on timing and what you’ll need during the year, right? I don’t think too much of Wong or a Hernandez but I’d imagine you put one of them if not both on the 40 because you will need a slot for a 3rd catcher. A guy like W. Gonzalez is not going to help the Sox this year, so do you try to not protect him early on and hope for the best- knowing that if you do put him on, you may need that spot later on in the year and that it’s potentially easier to sneak guys through early in the off-season?
 

jon abbey

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If you are trying to sneak guys through, I think you are actually better off leaving them unprotected to begin with. If someone is taken in the rule 5, then they have to be kept on the 26 man roster all year, which is hard in most cases even for non-contending teams. If someone is protected, then later dropped, all a team needs is a 40 man spot and they can claim the player without having to put them on the 26 man. An example is Jeisson Rosario:

BOS DFAd him on March 23, NY picked him up on March 26 and put him on the 40 man. On April 7, NY needed that spot and DFAd him, but no one claimed him and so NY was able to just send him to AA, which is where he has been all season (pretty underwhelmingly, but that's not the point).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah that’s what I mean - best to not protect them on the 40-man from the get go when there is a lot of activity going on throughout the league; as opposed to trying to move someone off later in the year once things settle down.

I think the Sox were hurt this year by having several spots on their 40-man taken up by pitchers who had no realistic path to help the team (and one too many backup catchers). Granted, a tough spot with needing to protect Groome, Mata rehabbing, and all the injuries.