Round 2: Celtics vs Cavs

RedOctober3829

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Game 1: at Boston Tues 5/7 7:00 TNT
Game 2 : at Boston Thurs 5/9 7:00 ESPN
Game 3 at Cle/Orl Sat 5/11 8:30 ABC
Game 4 at Cle/Orl Mon 5/13 TBD TNT
Game 5: at Boston Wed 5/15 TBD TNT
Game 6: at Cle/Orl Fri 5/17 TBD ESPN
Game 7: at Boston Sun 5/19 TBD
 

HomeRunBaker

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Crappy schedule draw

please sweep
We were in nice shape with a Cavs win tonight but still have a significant rest advantage. Whoever wins G7 on Sunday afternoon isn’t going to have much time to recharge and become emotionally engaged in rhe series.
 

dhellers

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Proposition: A motivated Orlando team is less likely to beat the celts than a motivated cavs, assuming the celts play seriously. If the celts lollygag, Orlando has the advantage.
Why,,? Orlando's youthful energy is less likely to disappear then cavs skill, but celts can counter youthful energy more dependable than negating skill.
Iow... Celts keep up the mojo they took to the heat, bring on Orlando.
If not, it doesn't matter because they will be beaten by someone .
 

reggiecleveland

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We were in nice shape with a Cavs win tonight but still have a significant rest advantage. Whoever wins G7 on Sunday afternoon isn’t going to have much time to recharge and become emotionally engaged in rhe series.
Any delay to to give KP more time is fine with me. The Cavs worry me a bit since they are deep and Jarret Allen is a beast.
 

Euclis20

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Any delay to to give KP more time is fine with me. The Cavs worry me a bit since they are deep and Jarret Allen is a beast.
Orlando will be more of a pain with their size but Cleveland's playmaking gives them a slightly better chance to pull off the upset, if that makes sense. I think we miss KP more against Orlando.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Any delay to to give KP more time is fine with me. The Cavs worry me a bit since they are deep and Jarret Allen is a beast.
I don’t think the EC is going to factor in The Finals beginning for KP to be ready as we should dispose of either team max of 5 but likely a sweep.

Allen’s hurt and hasn’t played in a couple games so who know when he returns. The Cavs have zero offensive creativity and we had our way with them all season except when Wade went nuclear….and he’s out injured now too. I think we win by 15+ in every game that Mitchell doesn’t go for 50.
 

Euclis20

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I don’t think the EC is going to factor in The Finals beginning for KP to be ready as we should dispose of either team max of 5 but likely a sweep.

Allen’s hurt and hasn’t played in a couple games so who know when he returns. The Cavs have zero offensive creativity and we had our way with them all season except when Wade went nuclear….and he’s out injured now too. I think we win by 15+ in every game that Mitchell doesn’t go for 50.
Marcus Morris started and played 27 minutes, and Tristan Thompson played 12 minutes off the bench. Depth feels like a major issue for them.
 

dhellers

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So my estimation of cavs skill level is not accounting for their injuries?

Iow: Euclis point about playmaking (which summarizes my thinking) may not be operative?
 

riboflav

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The Celtics will beat either team over the course of a 7-game series. For me, it's a matter of not turning the series into a war. It's not that I don't want them to shake some rust and have to close out close games, that would be nice, but I want them to avoid a war. Whoever they face, the Celtics should and hopefully will win the first two. Then, it comes down to grabbing one road win and closing out in game 5. That's the way I would want to see it in a sim.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Celtics will beat either team over the course of a 7-game series. For me, it's a matter of not turning the series into a war. It's not that I don't want them to shake some rust and have to close out close games, that would be nice, but I want them to avoid a war. Whoever they face, the Celtics should and hopefully will win the first two. Then, it comes down to grabbing one road win and closing out in game 5. That's the way I would want to see it in a sim.
The Celtics have been a great road team. I think, like the Miami series, their toughest test to get up for will be that Game 2 after we run them out of the Garden in Game 1. Either way though I don’t see a Game 6 in their future regardless of which team we face.
 

riboflav

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The Celtics have been a great road team. I think, like the Miami series, their toughest test to get up for will be that Game 2 after we run them out of the Garden in Game 1. Either way though I don’t see a Game 6 in their future regardless of which team we face.
Agree
 

tims4wins

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The Celtics will beat either team over the course of a 7-game series. For me, it's a matter of not turning the series into a war. It's not that I don't want them to shake some rust and have to close out close games, that would be nice, but I want them to avoid a war. Whoever they face, the Celtics should and hopefully will win the first two. Then, it comes down to grabbing one road win and closing out in game 5. That's the way I would want to see it in a sim.
Feels similar the play in situation with the heat to me. The G7 winner’s best chance at a win might be game 2. Game 1 is going to be a Celts blowout.
 

NomarsFool

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I do get tired of Mo Wagner dropping 20 points on us every time we play Orlando, so might rather see Cleveland, but doesn’t matter a ton to me.
 

koufax32

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I do get tired of Mo Wagner dropping 20 points on us every time we play Orlando, so might rather see Cleveland, but doesn’t matter a ton to me.
I’m not sure we’ve seen ORL play a locked in Celtics team in the last two years. Maybe it’s my green colored glasses, but apples to oranges?
 

Light-Tower-Power

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IIRC the Celtics shorthanded smoked Orlando twice in a row in one of those mini-series right before Christmas. Neither team poses much of a threat. Celtics in 4 if it's Orlando and 5 if it's Cleveland to account for Donovan Mitchell's ability to win one on his own. Cleveland is probably the more entertaining series because they have a little bit of star power. Watching Orlando play is like watching paint dry.
 

InstaFace

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I’m not sure we’ve seen ORL play a locked in Celtics team in the last two years. Maybe it’s my green colored glasses, but apples to oranges?
In fairness, you'd think we would've been locked in for that IST game there after Thanksgiving, and we played a pretty competitive first half but then just let go of the rope in the 4th Q. One of the most decisive losses we took in the entire regular season - I think the second biggest loss by margin, and the biggest (@ MIL) we basically never showed up, mentally were checked out from the opening tip. So ORL might have the biggest defeat of the Celtics all year in a game in which we were actually trying.
 

Euclis20

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In fairness, you'd think we would've been locked in for that IST game there after Thanksgiving, and we played a pretty competitive first half but then just let go of the rope in the 4th Q. One of the most decisive losses we took in the entire regular season - I think the second biggest loss by margin, and the biggest (@ MIL) we basically never showed up, mentally were checked out from the opening tip. So ORL might have the biggest defeat of the Celtics all year in a game in which we were actually trying.
That was a rest day for Holiday, and KP hurt his calf mid-way through the 3rd quarter (it was a tie game at the time) and sat the rest of the game. I don't take too much from that game, to be honest.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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IIRC the Celtics shorthanded smoked Orlando twice in a row in one of those mini-series right before Christmas. Neither team poses much of a threat. Celtics in 4 if it's Orlando and 5 if it's Cleveland to account for Donovan Mitchell's ability to win one on his own. Cleveland is probably the more entertaining series because they have a little bit of star power. Watching Orlando play is like watching paint dry.
Yes - BOS beat ORL 128-111 on December 15 and then 114-97 on December 17. The 12.15 game was a back-to-back + third game in four days + without Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and even Luke Kornet.
 

PedroKsBambino

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So, Cavs it is!

A few questions to begin the discussion....

Celtics won two of three in regular season, though all were reasonably close games.

- Will Jarrett Allen be back and healthy? Two bigs helps on the boards and with rim protection vs Celts...though Allen in particular is a risk to get pulled outside and put into a tough switch if he's in there

- How will Celts matchup wtih Mitchell? I'm guessing it's primarily Jrue, with some Brown and White on occasion

- Will Cavs shoot well enough to keep up? I doubt it - they'll need a big series from Strus and/or Garland or LeVert (or a surprising showing - in terms of minutes and performance- from Merrill) to keep up, imo.

- Especially if Allen is back, will Cavs be able to use offense boards to cover shooting gap?
 

HomeRunBaker

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So, Cavs it is!

A few questions to begin the discussion....

Celtics won two of three in regular season, though all were reasonably close games.
I’ll start by saying that I’m glad you used the word “reasonably” as we dominated the large majority of all 3 games with the one we actually lost being the most one-sides until we casually watched Dean Wade have his career game in the 4Q. I’m their first game we spotted them 10 pts in the 1Q, probably due to being out of rhythm from only having one game scheduled in the prior 8 days, then beat them by 17 in the final 3 quarters. We comfortably took care of business against them the following night then were up 20 the 3rd meeting until Wade happened.

Unless we sleepwalk through G2 I expect a comfortable sweep.
 

jablo1312

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I'd be very surpised if Allen is back and effective this series. Bruised ribs that prevent you from playing to become unbruised in 48 hours and don't stay unbruised while playing playoff basketball.

Would be nice to have KP here to help draw Mobley away from the paint. Tough to get a lot going at the rim with him around it. Even so, if this team is who some of us think they are should be a 5 game series.
 

m0ckduck

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- Especially if Allen is back, will Cavs be able to use offense boards to cover shooting gap?
Surprisingly for a team with two bigs, they're pretty bad in OReb% (22nd overall)— perhaps partly a reflection of injuries but also the fact that there isn't a lot of size after Mobley and Allen.

I wonder if we could see some small lineups in the non-Horford minutes with Tatum at the 5? Would be a challenge to take care of the glass, but we could simply annihilate them on the offensive end with, say, Hauser spelling Horford for a few min. Alternately, when Kornet plays, I guess they will try to get Mobley to commit to helping out against the driver and then attack with lobs to the dunker spot. As someone said above, he (Mobley) seems to overcommit at times.

Does Cleveland play zone at all? Doesn't seem like a Cavs-y thing to do, but could be an interesting look for them in terms of covering up for the lack of size in their backcourt.

Boston in 5.
 

Auger34

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Celtics in 5. Lose either Game 2 or 3.

Hopefully Indiana/NYK goes 7. Give Zinger as much time as possible
 

lovegtm

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Feels like the only way Cleveland gets this to 6 is if Mitchell or Garland (probably Mitchell) go compete unconscious and win 2 games on their own. LaVert has a bit of that potential as well.
 

128

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Feels like the only way Cleveland gets this to 6 is if Mitchell or Garland (probably Mitchell) go compete unconscious and win 2 games on their own. LaVert has a bit of that potential as well.
Or Max Strus starts knocking down 25-footers, as he's done against the C's before.
 

Jakarta

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Offensively I hope they learned from the Miami series how to best attack mismatches. Try to get Mobley switched onto Tatum to drag him away from the hoop and let JB and White go to work on the move against Garland, Mitchell and Strus. Don’t just try to post up and let the defense get set against that.

Defensively I would expect White to guard Garland while Jrue, JB, and Tatum take turns on Mitchell. Try to force Mobley to be a scorer and playmaker. Take care of the defensive glass.

C’s in 5.
 

fairlee76

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Tickets below face already for Game 1

for shame
It it is any consolation, it is the same here in Denver, which I love. Gotta save up for a dream Finals match-up!

Add me to the chorus of those saying Celtics in 5 games against the Cavs.
 

lovegtm

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Offensively I hope they learned from the Miami series how to best attack mismatches. Try to get Mobley switched onto Tatum to drag him away from the hoop and let JB and White go to work on the move against Garland, Mitchell and Strus. Don’t just try to post up and let the defense get set against that.

Defensively I would expect White to guard Garland while Jrue, JB, and Tatum take turns on Mitchell. Try to force Mobley to be a scorer and playmaker. Take care of the defensive glass.

C’s in 5.
I don't think Cleveland will just concede Mobley on to Tatum, and then have Mobley float on the perimeter, at least as a default. They probably are going to get to run their more vanilla mismatch+2-3 player actions, and then see what that leads too. This version of Cleveland is not as well coached as Miami, and I think they'll have issues stopping the vanilla stuff, at least initially.
 

InstaFace

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Someday, Danny Ainge is going to be asked about Janos, and he's either going to give a wry knowing smile and feigned confusion, or make a joke about having a better burner than Bryan Colangelo, and either way it'll be amazing.
 

the moops

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Defensively I would expect White to guard Garland while Jrue, JB, and Tatum take turns on Mitchell.
I wonder if we see White/Jrue on Strus, JB on Mitchell, Jrue/White on Garland, Tatum on whoever they play at the 4 (Okoro?), and Horford on Mobley.

Reason being, Jaylen is a great one on one defender, not so great at help. Have him stick on Mitchell and not worry about the rest. Although I can see a world where Boston just switches everything 1-4
 

saintnick912

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I didn't catch Game 7, but Mitchell looked pretty beat up at the end of Game 6 after basically being the Cavs entire offense for the last 15 or so minutes of the game. Hopefully the mileage adds up.
 

johnmd20

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I didn't catch Game 7, but Mitchell looked pretty beat up at the end of Game 6 after basically being the Cavs entire offense for the last 15 or so minutes of the game. Hopefully the mileage adds up.
He didn't look beat up yesterday. He's got an unbelievable motor. Yesterday, all of the Magic were sucking wind, especially Paolo, and Mitchell was just motoring all over, despite playing 45 minutes. The miles might add up over time but if yesterday is an indication, probably won't happen this year. He's at the peak of his athleticism. And his cardio is absurd.

The Celtics will crush Cleveland despite Mitchell. Mitchell can't do it on his own. And the Cavs other players (Garland and Mobley and Strus) seem to play rattled quite often. It was Levert and Mitchell who gave the Cavs the spark yesterday. Garland was nowhere to be found until the Cavs were up by 8 points.
 

Jimbodandy

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I wonder if we see White/Jrue on Strus, JB on Mitchell, Jrue/White on Garland, Tatum on whoever they play at the 4 (Okoro?), and Horford on Mobley.

Reason being, Jaylen is a great one on one defender, not so great at help. Have him stick on Mitchell and not worry about the rest. Although I can see a world where Boston just switches everything 1-4
Not a terrible idea. I think that they'll try a switch approach to start with and see how it works, but there will be different looks thrown for sure.
 

lovegtm

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JB has gotten better at help, so I think they're not quite as concerned about that.

I would be surprised if the gameplan is not:
-
switch 1-4
- chase hard over the top on screens
- drop
- help very aggressively from the strong-side corner to take away overly easy mid-rangers
- help even more aggressively off guys like Okoro

This plan is straightforward to execute, and you really put a lot of pressure on Mitchell/Garland to break it.

The other thing you could do, however, is put Horford/Kornet on Okoro and any other worse shooters, and assign them to muck everything up as a rover. If they want to bring him into the PnR, lol. The Celtics 1-4 are strong enough that any of them can guard Mobley easily, so that's a huge advantage. The Celtics weren't comfortable with smalls defending Bam, so that was less of an option.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I didn't catch Game 7, but Mitchell looked pretty beat up at the end of Game 6 after basically being the Cavs entire offense for the last 15 or so minutes of the game. Hopefully the mileage adds up.
Mitchell was pretty horrific for most of the 1H then got energized along with the crowd. One thing I’ve noticed about Mitchell is that he is very good at playing into the crowd and uses this to build his aggression. It seems like he’s much more explosive in these moments which of course he isn’t going to have tomorrow night.

The quick turnaround with travel doesn’t figure to help him either in G1. This game, and the Miami G1, reminded me of the Barkley quote from the Dream Team when a reporter asked Charles what he knew about Angola, “All I know about Angola is that they’re in trouble.”
 
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PedroKsBambino

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My guess is Jrue is primary on Mitchell but Jaylen gets a bunch of the other minutes there, and wouldn't rule out a few from Springer.

If Allen remains out I suspect Celts will try to pull Mobley away from hoop and turn Luke into a vertical threat - Cavs pretty small outside the two bigs (one of whom may not play a ton/initially).

This is a team PP can play real minutes against, though a small risk Garland really heats up against him and forces a move.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Unless someone gets hurt I can't imagine Springer sees the floor besides and crazy blowouts
Yeah the emergency guys last our 8-man rotation are Tillman and Brissett. It’s not going any deeper than that unless there are multiple injuries or multiple players in foul trouble.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Tillman and Brissett aren't an answer to Mitchell - the scenario Springer plays is 100% about Mitchell going off (and wanting to wear on him) not about overall role....agree there's zero chance Springer plays for any purpose other than designated defensive pest.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tillman and Brissett aren't an answer to Mitchell - the scenario Springer plays is 100% about Mitchell going off (and wanting to wear on him) not about overall role....agree there's zero chance Springer plays for any purpose other than designated defensive pest.
Jaylen and Tatum would be used on him before we went to our deep bench