Rosenthal: Tanaka signs with Yankees
- Thread starter Corsi
- Start date
jon abbey said:
Understandable, but I think it's difficult to have a discussion when the scouting reports are all over the place. Did you read the scouting Tanaka article on MLBTR? They disagreed about everything. Opinions on him seem to range from Cy Young competitor to third starter.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/masahiro-tanaka/
Edited to add more information:
And BP polled some scouts as well
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22696
Davenport also did some projections
http://www.claydavenport.com/pt/TANAKA19881101A.shtml
Some more from Cashman on Tanaka:
"“You’ve got 30 teams now with expansion, so there’s not many 25-year-olds running around that become free agents with his ability at this time, so I think the contract is reflective of the scarcity of that product. This is a high-end asset that’s available. He’s obviously got some risk because he’s transitioning from Japan, so we’ve spoken about those difficult adjustments that are necessary. He has a great deal of ability. We could be getting more than a three. Maybe it’s a two. Maybe it’s even a one at some point. But I think because of the adjustments that are necessary, and because of the contract, (expectations are different).”
“… Now it gets invoked, the sixth, seventh, eighth-highest, ninth-highest, whatever pitching contract ever. It kind of slants, I think, a little bit of the evaluation process, and I think it’s more reflective of the 25-year-old and the bidding side of it and his abilities. How he settles into the United States, I think in fairness, I’m going to say, especially here in the first year, it’s No. 3 starter. If we get more, all the better. That’s me trying to speak to it to some degree.”
“We think he’s got a great deal of ability, and we’re excited to have him join the franchise. We’ve got a lot of high-end talent that we brought in, including him. He’s going to play one part of many, and we look for them all to contribute.
“I’m also trying to honestly prepare the reality of, for our fan base, I know that because the contract is what it is, the expectations are going to be something, especially on the front end, that I want to alter to some degree, or try to. It’s better ot have an honest, realistic dialogue with your fans that you run through the media. Whether anybody wants to disagree, that’s fine. Or agree, that’s fine too. At least I own the words that I’m putting out there, and those words are what they were and what they are, which is that I think the adjustments are real and as excited as we are to have him, and as much as we need a player of his capabilities, I want to make sure that people know how difficult this game is over here, and that there should be expectations of growing pains. Just like when I signed players from other clubs and they come to New York from other markets here in the states, there’s growing pains. I just want to make sure to remind everybody, even though they might not want to hear it.”"
"“You’ve got 30 teams now with expansion, so there’s not many 25-year-olds running around that become free agents with his ability at this time, so I think the contract is reflective of the scarcity of that product. This is a high-end asset that’s available. He’s obviously got some risk because he’s transitioning from Japan, so we’ve spoken about those difficult adjustments that are necessary. He has a great deal of ability. We could be getting more than a three. Maybe it’s a two. Maybe it’s even a one at some point. But I think because of the adjustments that are necessary, and because of the contract, (expectations are different).”
“… Now it gets invoked, the sixth, seventh, eighth-highest, ninth-highest, whatever pitching contract ever. It kind of slants, I think, a little bit of the evaluation process, and I think it’s more reflective of the 25-year-old and the bidding side of it and his abilities. How he settles into the United States, I think in fairness, I’m going to say, especially here in the first year, it’s No. 3 starter. If we get more, all the better. That’s me trying to speak to it to some degree.”
“We think he’s got a great deal of ability, and we’re excited to have him join the franchise. We’ve got a lot of high-end talent that we brought in, including him. He’s going to play one part of many, and we look for them all to contribute.
“I’m also trying to honestly prepare the reality of, for our fan base, I know that because the contract is what it is, the expectations are going to be something, especially on the front end, that I want to alter to some degree, or try to. It’s better ot have an honest, realistic dialogue with your fans that you run through the media. Whether anybody wants to disagree, that’s fine. Or agree, that’s fine too. At least I own the words that I’m putting out there, and those words are what they were and what they are, which is that I think the adjustments are real and as excited as we are to have him, and as much as we need a player of his capabilities, I want to make sure that people know how difficult this game is over here, and that there should be expectations of growing pains. Just like when I signed players from other clubs and they come to New York from other markets here in the states, there’s growing pains. I just want to make sure to remind everybody, even though they might not want to hear it.”"
Hoplite said:
Interesting, thanks for the link. They disagree about some stuff, but not really the bottom line:
"One scout, who admitted being "toward the higher end of the spectrum," described Tanaka as a number one starter, without hesitation. He expects Tanaka to contend for the Cy Young, and feels he'll be one of the ten best starting pitchers in MLB in 2014.
The other three scouts placed Tanaka in a slightly lower tier, ranking him in the #15-25 range among all MLB starters for 2014. Two of them described him as a number two starter."
That would be a pleasant surprise, I would personally guess he'd be in the next tier after that in 2014, but maybe that's just my natural pessimism.
jon abbey said:
BP did a similar poll of scouts (as well as readers) and came up with a similar result. I've always found the jump from MLB to NPB to be fascinating. Out of personal curiosity, for fantasy baseball purposes and real baseball purposes I'll be very interested in how Tanaka looks in Spring Training.
mauidano said:
I'm kind of amazed this hasn't gotten more play. It's actually one of the most revolting things I've heard in a long time.
Dude charters a 787 jumbo jet, big enough to seat 200 passengers, so he can come off as a big swinging dick when he flies into NYC for his initial presser. If the carbon footprint he spent on the flight over wasn't bad enough, because of the timing of his booking the flight the plane refueled soon after touching down at JFK, turned around and headed back to Japan EMPTY.
So two long intercontinental flights to bring Tanaka, a party of four, and his little dog Fifi to a press conference. He could easily have chartered the baddest Gulfstream you ever saw at far less cost and far less damage to the environment, but he needs to be a baller.
Fuck him. I didn't have a good reason to hate him before, but now I do. He's a selfish enemy of the planet, and king-sized douchebag.
While the outrage at his flight and his poodle amuse me, this was almost certainly a publicity stunt for JAL and cost Tanaka nothing. The fact that the plane went back empty is something of a tell in this sense, because it indicates that it was configured specifically for this flight.
I saw a you tube clip recently with 200 of Tanakas strike outs in 2013. Couple of observations
Most of his K's, especially swinging K's, seemed to come on the splitter, and to a lesser degree the slider.
The max velocity I saw on the FB was 151 km/hr. That's about 90 mph. However, I read somewhere that the radar gun may be a couple of miles per hr lower than pitch f/x. probably because pitch f/x has an algorithm that calculates the velocity at the release point, while the radar guns reading is probably well off the release point. So call it 92 mph which is consistent with the scouts reports that he sits at 92.
He may have a FB that is 96-97 but I expect to see it as often as we saw Daisukes 95-96 mph FB. Also, pitching every 5 days may take a bit off his FB.
The FB looked quite hittable, but looks like he had hitters who took the FB for strikes worrying about split. He got a few calls on the FB that looked generous and makes me wonder if the Japanese strike zone is a bit pitcher friendly.
We saw how effective someone like Koji Uehara can be with a great split and Tanaka has a great one. One big difference is that Koji throws his almost 1/2 the time, while Tanaka throws it much less (15% of the time). Tanaka has a pretty good slider though so he probably does not need to reply on the split as much as Koji does .
http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=252
As a GB pitcher, and his 2 seamer allegedly has more sink with the MLB ball, Jeter is going to absolutely kill him at SS. I would not be surprised if Ryan starts at SS in more than a few of Tanakas starts, so the offense will take a bit of a hit which means less run support.
Its definitely going to be interesting to watch Tanaka. I think he is going to be much better than Daisuke was, how much better I can't say.
Most of his K's, especially swinging K's, seemed to come on the splitter, and to a lesser degree the slider.
The max velocity I saw on the FB was 151 km/hr. That's about 90 mph. However, I read somewhere that the radar gun may be a couple of miles per hr lower than pitch f/x. probably because pitch f/x has an algorithm that calculates the velocity at the release point, while the radar guns reading is probably well off the release point. So call it 92 mph which is consistent with the scouts reports that he sits at 92.
He may have a FB that is 96-97 but I expect to see it as often as we saw Daisukes 95-96 mph FB. Also, pitching every 5 days may take a bit off his FB.
The FB looked quite hittable, but looks like he had hitters who took the FB for strikes worrying about split. He got a few calls on the FB that looked generous and makes me wonder if the Japanese strike zone is a bit pitcher friendly.
We saw how effective someone like Koji Uehara can be with a great split and Tanaka has a great one. One big difference is that Koji throws his almost 1/2 the time, while Tanaka throws it much less (15% of the time). Tanaka has a pretty good slider though so he probably does not need to reply on the split as much as Koji does .
http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=252
As a GB pitcher, and his 2 seamer allegedly has more sink with the MLB ball, Jeter is going to absolutely kill him at SS. I would not be surprised if Ryan starts at SS in more than a few of Tanakas starts, so the offense will take a bit of a hit which means less run support.
Its definitely going to be interesting to watch Tanaka. I think he is going to be much better than Daisuke was, how much better I can't say.
I think where we get clouded judging Japanese pitchers is that there are so many variables: hitters, ball design, ballparks, throwing regimen, work load and sequence...so that anyone who wants to critique a Japanese pitcher can always find something to raise doubts. That doesn't mean that if a Japanese pitcher is the "real thing" - he should be overly criticized. I really don't care about his ERA or his W-L stats, but everything else I've read about him points towards a huge potential for success in MLB.
That meant, of course, that only a few teams would have the wherewithal to bid numbers corresponding to his upside...and unfortunately for us the biggest market in the country was able to capture him (didn't he go to the Mets?)
That meant, of course, that only a few teams would have the wherewithal to bid numbers corresponding to his upside...and unfortunately for us the biggest market in the country was able to capture him (didn't he go to the Mets?)
Hoplite said:He's a bigger diva than Daisuke
He's an "enemy of the planet". If he ever joins SoSH that would be a great tagline for him.
Flown commercial would've been awesome, but he's an extremely wealthy executive on his way to a super important meeting....so chartering a Gulfstream would have been the conventional move and would have been plenty sufficient.Doctor G said:
The dog crack on my part is clearly just bluster. He has every right to love whatever pet he chooses and I've seen more than one picture of Papi cuddling with a tiny dog. (Pedro, if memory serves, had a ton of Golden Retrievers. Because he's awesome.)
I'm not outraged by the spending -- he's a rich man so let him put his wealth into the economy. And if JAL footed the bill as a marketing expense then shame on them too...but Tanaka didn't have to sign on for such an anti-humanity idea
But two transcontinental flights of a 787 to chauffeur 5 people and a dog one way is selfish, irresponsible, and a great image for what a Red Sox fan thinks of the newest Yankee. Enemy of the Planet joins Evil Empire.
Mugsys Jock said:
Actually I found this story to be quite comical and amusing, pump up the volume, bring him on, let the games begin, see how good he is.
Give him credit on one point, JAL obviously employed a trained/commercial pilot.
Don't want to take this out of context but when Ken Singleton was asked if Tanaka reminds him of anyone, the Yankee announcer mentioned Catfish Hunter. Great control, variety of pitches, ability to adjust. Catfish gave up a few homers in his day. Tanaka shows the same propensity. He's a long way from Catfish in terms of savvy and achievement.
It's hard to figure out what to make of that first start. I suppose it would be the exception if you really could glean lasting insights from just one start. We probably won't really know much till teams see him a second time.
Yeah, I remember Daisuke getting off to a good start as well. Baseball's a game of adjustments, the real test will be how he looks when there are reliable scouting reports on him. And I imagine the wear and tear of pitching every five days as opposed to every seven days will catch up to him at some point.