Riding the Train: the 2013 Miami Dolphins

dwainw · Oct 18, 2013

Yeah, I think it's probably easy to confuse holding back with simply identifying strengths (and weaknesses) in personnel, making weekly adjustments, and playing matchups throughout the season. Furthermore, a team like the Dolphins is not nearly talented enough to hold anything back.

Sunday's game worries me a lot. In general, the Bills have played better than anyone expected, and their greatest defensive strength (their pass rush), matches up frighteningly well with our glaring offensive weakness. I'm hoping for a bit of a breakout game by the Miller/Thomas combo against a considerably weaker run defense to go along with the added theoretical advantage of an extra week of game planning by the coaching staff (assuming they worked during the players' week off). And I'm still waiting for the defense to take over a game; you'd think facing a very green quarterback would be the ideal time to do it.

Nonetheless, despite the Bills QB situation, no outcome would surprise me in this game.

smastroyin · Oct 20, 2013

Does mike Wallace even get open before Tannehill has to release the ball? I think we can start calling this plan a complete failure.

sodenj5 · Oct 20, 2013

Awful, awful game. They had 2 weeks to prepare, and this is how they play? They kept Tannehill upright for most of the game, but when it mattered most, Clabo got manhandled and Tannehill coughed it up on the sack that changed the game.

Play calling was once again awful in spots. Running game was better, but still not great. Just an awful way to come out after the bye week.

CaptainLaddie · Oct 21, 2013

Yeah, they're not going 11-5.

jk333 · Oct 21, 2013

sodenj5 said:
Awful, awful game. They had 2 weeks to prepare, and this is how they play? They kept Tannehill upright for most of the game, but when it mattered most, Clabo got manhandled and Tannehill coughed it up on the sack that changed the game.

Play calling was once again awful in spots. Running game was better, but still not great. Just an awful way to come out after the bye week.

CaptainLaddie said:
Yeah, they're not going 11-5.

Definitely not with the play calling on offense. Terrible. They need to run the football with more traditional play calling. That does NOT mean Daniel Thomas - there are practice squad players better than him. If they don't believe in Lamar Miller then they need another RB. Thomas is Miami's very own Isaac Redman.

The offensive line has been bad but he problem is that everyone knows they are passing. Green Bay's running attack has setup a more balanced offense this year; last year they had sack problems even with Rodgers as the QB. The Dolphins won't win any value awards with the Wallace contract and he'll be cut in 2 years but for this year and next, the receiving corps works.

Two weeks ago PFF ranked Miami the 21st best offensive line. That's a far cry from what some of the worst lines have done. PFF:
Stud: The ultra-aggressive Richie Incognito (+7.0) has been especially impressive with his pass protection work.
Dud: The team would have hoped for more when they brought Tyson Clabo (-8.8) in. He just hasn’t played to the level he was at in Atlanta.
Summary: It could be worse. Not much if you’re looking at their run blocking, which has been poor, but despite the sacks allowed they’ve done a reasonable job in pass protection with every sack coming after 2.6 seconds of the quarterback holding the ball.

Dogman · Oct 21, 2013

Jay Glazer ‏@JayGlazer 31s
The Miami Dolphins, who've been dealing w o-line trouble, have traded with the Ravens for Bryant McKinnie according to Ravens sources

dwainw · Oct 21, 2013

Dogman2 said:
Jay Glazer ‏@JayGlazer 31s
The Miami Dolphins, who've been dealing w o-line trouble, have traded with the Ravens for Bryant McKinnie according to Ravens sources

yay here comes the cavalry

Sadly, he'll be huge upgrade. And by huge, I mean quite fat.

dwainw · Oct 25, 2013

pdaj said:
Could this move work? Sure. Would I be shocked? Yes. Is anything better than Clabo at this point? Most likely.

I'm still depressed over the fact "we" lost to f-cking Buffalo, minus their starting QB, at home.

I'm hanging my last shred of hope on that. Although, McKinnie has already been limited in practice. So, yeah.

Although Tannehill bears much of the responsibility for that game with a couple of awful throws, at least you could say he was due for some regression. But mark down last week's debacle as the moment my faith in this coaching staff took a substantial hit. Stubborn and consistently outhinking themselves. Sparanoesque in their ability to frustrate.

Makes me that much more thankful for this hugely enjoyable Red Sox team and their magical run.

dwainw · Oct 26, 2013

Why the hell is cbssportsline telling me Dimitri Patterson is out (via fantasy football updates) while other sources are saying the Dolphins D is finally fully healthy (including Patterson) and ready to go. Dumbasses.

Should I care and will it make a difference? Probably not. Will the Patriot coaching staff overcome its team's limitations and completely overmatch the coaches of a healthy-as-you-could-ever-hope-them-to-be Dolphins squad? Quite likely. Will the Dolphins still somehow manage to keep it close, possibly even leading the game for a significant portion of it, only to squander whatever chance they had with a crushing fumble/Tannehill sack/inability to convert a 1/2 a yard when they most need it (or some combination thereof)? Obviously. Is this bitter rant motivated by mounting frustration about how the Dolphins put themselves in a darn-near must-win situation tomorrow in a road game in New England by turning back into the one-step-forward/two-steps-back team we've all grown to know and "love" for the past infinite number of years under 1 million coaches and 2 million quarterbacks? Yup.

Am I psychotic for still thinking this is a very winnable game despite the Patriots' crazy intangible advantage and home field dominance for the past infinite number of years, not to mention a supposedly god-like QB with initials and an existence that match a disease that, while treatable, might never be eradicated? I sure am.

sodenj5 · Oct 26, 2013

dwainw said:
Why the hell is cbssportsline telling me Dimitri Patterson is out (via fantasy football updates) while other sources are saying the Dolphins D is finally fully healthy (including Patterson) and ready to go. Dumbasses.

Should I care and will it make a difference? Probably not. Will the Patriot coaching staff overcome its team's limitations and completely overmatch the coaches of a healthy-as-you-could-ever-hope-them-to-be Dolphins squad? Quite likely. Will the Dolphins still somehow manage to keep it close, possibly even leading the game for a significant portion of it, only to squander whatever chance they had with a crushing fumble/Tannehill sack/inability to convert a 1/2 a yard when they most need it (or some combination thereof)? Obviously. Is this bitter rant motivated by mounting frustration about how the Dolphins put themselves in a darn-near must-win situation tomorrow in a road game in New England by turning back into the one-step-forward/two-steps-back team we've all grown to know and "love" for the past infinite number of years under 1 million coaches and 2 million quarterbacks? Yup.

Am I psychotic for still thinking this is a very winnable game despite the Patriots' crazy intangible advantage and home field dominance for the past infinite number of years, not to mention a supposedly god-like QB with initials and an existence that match a disease that, while treatable, might never be eradicated? I sure am.

Miami is capable of winning this game. They'll need to play much better than they have the last 3 weeks, but this is still a team that went into Indy and came out of there with a win.

They have to protect Tannehill better and they absolutely cannot fall behind fast like they did against Buffalo. This game is winnable.

dwainw · Oct 26, 2013

sodenj5 said:
Miami is capable of winning this game. They'll need to play much better than they have the last 3 weeks, but this is still a team that went into Indy and came out of there with a win.

They have to protect Tannehill better and they absolutely cannot fall behind fast like they did against Buffalo. This game is winnable.

I know, right?

SMU_Sox · Oct 26, 2013

This game is winnable for the Fins in the sense that they have a chance to win it. But I'd put that chance below 33%. FO has it as a yellow game for NE. Meaning they are less than a lock but more than a 50/50 toss up. A 66% chance to win or so. I think that's about right. To me this depends on who suits up on the NE D. If Talib plays at 80% or better I don't think you guys win.

SMU_Sox · Oct 26, 2013

Let's think about it in terms of point bands.

NE, realistically, will score between 13 and 31 points.
MIA, realistically, will score between 10 and 27 points.

My guess? 27-17 NE. Late defense stop to prevent a last 2 minute TD for the fins. A solid win for the Pats but the Fins are competitive throughout. Pats line rebounds and WR's and Gronk have big games.

dwainw · Oct 26, 2013

Valid points all of you, with one exception IMO. I would put the Patriots offensive point ceiling at less than 30 points. Remember, the Dolphins defense is as healthy as it's been in a while. I suspect that if the Pats' D or return guys don't score*, the Patriots will be in the low 20's, with the Dolphins right behind them.

And yeah, I'd put the chances of Gronk going off at somewhere around 95%. He'll probably constitute close to half their offense.

I sure hope the Red Sox win tonight. I'd rather not already be in a bad mood when I start watching the Dolphins game.

*Big "IF."

SMU_Sox · Oct 26, 2013

Hah, I think that is something we can all agree on.

As for the 31... perhaps it is a tad high.

Let's look at how both teams matchup:

Dolphins Rush offense DVOA: -7.0%, 16th
vs
Pats Rush Defense DVOA: -5.4%, 21st

Dolphins Pass Offense DVOA: -2.4%, 22nd
vs Pats Pass Defense DVOA: -8.7%, 5th

On offense the Fins need to try and exploit the holes in the Pats run defense. The problem is I don't know if the Fins have the offensive line or the running scheme to do that. The passing game does not matchup favorably with the Pats pass D which not only can rush the passer but has good coverage too. MIA might need to do a lot of short passes and challenge the slot corners, and LBs in coverage. If the Fins can't get their run game going and the Pats play in a lot of nickel and dime packages I don't think they'll move the ball much at all.

On Defense:

Pats Rushing Offense DVOA: -4.7%, 13th
vs.
Fins Run Defense DVOA: -1.6%, 26th.

Pats Passing Offense DVOA: 0.2%, 21st
vs.
Fins Pass Defense DVOA: 8.2%, 16th.

Look, the Pats offense is a huge variable. Gronk and Amendola make their passing offense better. The Pats are going to try and run on the Fins and set up the play action pass. With a healthier receiving core including getting veterans back this passing offense could get remarkably better.

STs: Pats are #1, Fins are #7.

Overall the numbers say the Pats have an advantage in every aspect of the game except their rushing offense.
They are a TD favorite which is 1 point too high for me but almost right.

Look, I think the Pats win. But the teams are close enough that the Fins have a chance.

dwainw · Oct 26, 2013

You people and your fancy numbers always trying to "support your arguments" and "prove" stuff.

OK, tell me this smart guy: What's the % difference of Tannehill getting killed dead v. Tannehill not getting killed dead?

sodenj5 · Oct 27, 2013

This team is an absolute joke. Sturgis misses that field goal and the fucking wheels fall off.

I have no words for the disappointment.

Also, does Tannehill have a sack recovered fumble every game this season? I understand he's getting blasted, but this shit is beyond the point of making excuses.

CaptainLaddie · Oct 27, 2013

SMU_Sox · Oct 27, 2013

SMU_Sox said:
Let's think about it in terms of point bands.

NE, realistically, will score between 13 and 31 points.
MIA, realistically, will score between 10 and 27 points.

My guess? 27-17 NE. Late defense stop to prevent a last 2 minute TD for the fins. A solid win for the Pats but the Fins are competitive throughout. Pats line rebounds and WR's and Gronk have big games.

So... my final score was dead on. 27-17 Pats. And the Fins were competitive throughout. But I was wrong about the O-Line and the WR's and Gronk.

sodenj5 · Oct 27, 2013

CaptainLaddie said:

Fuck off.

rymflaherty · Oct 27, 2013

I bet Jeff Ireland was that kid that built the same stupid straight tower with his Lego's. Using the same pieces and colors, and rebuilding it the same exact way no matter how many times it would fall.

dwainw · Oct 27, 2013

Bitter pill. Finally the running game shows some life and Sherman shows some ability to mask the OL deficiencies with some quick drops and by moving Tannehill around a bit, only to have other issues rear their ugly head. Like sticking your finger in the hole in the dike only to have a bunch more leaks spring up. Then again, that doesn't quite capture the continuing sacks-allowed nightmare. What an effing joke.

I didn't expect them to win this game going in, but to be that dominant in the first half only to fold in that way....? Two huge nut punches in less than 24 hours.

I have a bad feeling about tonight.

SMU_Sox said:
So... my final score was dead on. 27-17 Pats. And the Fins were competitive throughout. But I was wrong about the O-Line and the WR's and Gronk.

Yeah, nice analysis. Sadly, I'd say this captured it pretty well too:

dwainw said:
Will the Patriot coaching staff overcome its team's limitations and completely overmatch the coaches of a healthy-as-you-could-ever-hope-them-to-be Dolphins squad? Quite likely. Will the Dolphins still somehow manage to keep it close, possibly even leading the game for a significant portion of it, only to squander whatever chance they had with a crushing fumble/Tannehill sack/inability to convert a 1/2 a yard when they most need it (or some combination thereof)? Obviously. Is this bitter rant motivated by mounting frustration about how the Dolphins put themselves in a darn-near must-win situation tomorrow in a road game in New England by turning back into the one-step-forward/two-steps-back team we've all grown to know and "love" for the past infinite number of years under 1 million coaches and 2 million quarterbacks? Yup.

RIrooter09 · Oct 27, 2013

sodenj5 said:
Fuck off.

Weren't you in the game thread trolling earlier?

Tony C · Oct 27, 2013

Boy...dwainw, that's remarkably right-on. And ignore the troll -- that's embarrassing as a Pats fan.

sodenj5 · Oct 27, 2013

RIrooter09 said:
Weren't you in the game thread trolling earlier?

"Woo!" Constitutes trolling?

SidelineCameras · Oct 27, 2013

As a Sox/Pats fan who didn't like the way the Jets game ended (duh) and didn't like the way Game 3 ended last night (double-duh), I hate that the BS swatting call played such an impact. That was a totally natural motion of gathering in the ball. I would have gone apeshit if the situation was reversed.

CouchsideSteve · Oct 27, 2013

Bitter pill to swallow this afternoon, indeed. The Dolphins didn't deserve to win based on how they played in the 2nd half, but they certainly had no favors from the refs. The illegial batting the ball forward call was completely unconscionable - I have no idea how a call like that is made at such a pivotal point in the game. A couple of phantom holding/PI calls also gave the Patriots first downs to sustain drives.

Taking a step back, 3-4 is about where I imagined they would be at this point in the season... certainly not the route I expected they'd take, but Tannehill is continuing to develop despite having brutal protection and they've been competitive in every game, other than NO. Very curious to see how they look against CIN on a qucik turnaround.

Clears Cleaver · Oct 27, 2013

Rationally, this organization is awful. The GM,staff and QB are all in the bottom quarter of the league. The stadium and fan base suck. If I'm Ross I would look to sell/move to LA or London.

There is little hope here.

Tannehill sucks. Lets face it. He takes too long to get rid of the ball and can't complete anything down the field. He's a better version of Henne at this point. Given the number of great young QBs, how will Miami ever win with him behind center?

The staff is bad. How do you know? Team makes stupid plays. Team doesn't ever make winning plays. Never ever feel they out schemed their opponent. Players leave Miami and get better. Players come to Miami and get worse. Why?

I'm done with them. I can't see a scenario where Ireland and Philbin return. And with this draft coming with potentially 4 qB's better than Tannehill, it's a tough call on what a new GM and staff will do

crystalline · Oct 28, 2013

I thought Tannehill looked promising last night. I can't remember when the Pats ran CB blitzes so effectively. I am not sure the strip sack was his fault, I'd put it on the OL and defensive coaches.
Could the Dolphins be in a Bobby V scenario where a good coach could mold the existing talent into success?

Super Nomario · Oct 28, 2013

crystalline said:
I thought Tannehill looked promising last night. I can't remember when the Pats ran CB blitzes so effectively. I am not sure the strip sack was his fault, I'd put it on the OL and defensive coaches.
Could the Dolphins be in a Bobby V scenario where a good coach could mold the existing talent into success?

My understanding is that secondary blitzes are usually on the QB - you don't typically have a blocker assigned to DBs, so it's on the QB to read / recognize the blitz and throw his hot. The Pats used a few CB blitzes against Miami last season, too (remember Derrick Martin bullrushing Jonathan Martin?), so it seems like they've diagnosed this as a weakness with the Dolphins, probably a weakness in Tannehill's game specifically.

ShaneTrot · Oct 28, 2013

CouchsideSteve said:
Bitter pill to swallow this afternoon, indeed. The Dolphins didn't deserve to win based on how they played in the 2nd half, but they certainly had no favors from the refs. The illegial batting the ball forward call was completely unconscionable - I have no idea how a call like that is made at such a pivotal point in the game. A couple of phantom holding/PI calls also gave the Patriots first downs to sustain drives.

Taking a step back, 3-4 is about where I imagined they would be at this point in the season... certainly not the route I expected they'd take, but Tannehill is continuing to develop despite having brutal protection and they've been competitive in every game, other than NO. Very curious to see how they look against CIN on a qucik turnaround.

The Pats recovered the fumble anyway, so there would at least be a punt and poor field position for Miami. You did see the phantom holding call on Solder on the Gronk TD? You cannot have three second half TO on the road, a missed and a blocked FG, as well a Brady scramble for a first down on a 4th down play and expect to win.

Red PR · Oct 28, 2013

Clears Cleaver said:
Rationally, this organization is awful. The GM,staff and QB are all in the bottom quarter of the league. The stadium and fan base suck. If I'm Ross I would look to sell/move to LA or London.

There is little hope here.

Tannehill sucks. Lets face it. He takes too long to get rid of the ball and can't complete anything down the field. He's a better version of Henne at this point. Given the number of great young QBs, how will Miami ever win with him behind center?

The staff is bad. How do you know? Team makes stupid plays. Team doesn't ever make winning plays. Never ever feel they out schemed their opponent. Players leave Miami and get better. Players come to Miami and get worse. Why?

I'm done with them. I can't see a scenario where Ireland and Philbin return. And with this draft coming with potentially 4 qB's better than Tannehill, it's a tough call on what a new GM and staff will do

Sad but I feel same way expressed here...Its hit or miss and more misses than hits with this team. Coaching has not been good, mediocre at best

MarcSullivaFan · Oct 28, 2013

SidelineCameras said:
As a Sox/Pats fan who didn't like the way the Jets game ended (duh) and didn't like the way Game 3 ended last night (double-duh), I hate that the BS swatting call played such an impact. That was a totally natural motion of gathering in the ball. I would have gone apeshit if the situation was reversed.

Bad call with the benefit of replay and hindsight, but as a non-reviewable call made in real time, it was a defensible call. Also, the 'Phins were already down 20-17 at that point, so it was hardly a definite game-changer.

sodenj5 · Oct 28, 2013

MarcSullivaFan said:
Bad call with the benefit of replay and hindsight, but as a non-reviewable call made in real time, it was a defensible call. Also, the 'Phins were already down 20-17 at that point, so it was hardly a definite game-changer.

Hardly a game-changer? It would have been third and forever, and if the Pats are lucky, they salvage a field goal from that drive. Instead, they get 10 yards, a fresh set of downs, and end up punching it in for a touchdown making it a 10 point game instead of a 6, or possibly still 3 point game. What's your definition of game-changer, exactly?

MarcSullivaFan · Oct 28, 2013

sodenj5 said:
Hardly a game-changer? It would have been third and forever, and if the Pats are lucky, they salvage a field goal from that drive. Instead, they get 10 yards, a fresh set of downs, and end up punching it in for a touchdown making it a 10 point game instead of a 6, or possibly still 3 point game. What's your definition of game-changer, exactly?

I said definite game changer.

My definition of game changer is a penalty that almost certainly decides the outcome of the game. See Pats/Jets last week.

In this case, the Dolphins were down 10 with over 7 minutes to go and with all three timeouts. They proceeded to allow 4 sacks, a blocked FG, gave up an INT, blew a timeout, and scored 0 points.

Incorrect call? Yes. Game changer? No.

dwainw · Oct 28, 2013

At the risk of stating the obvious, on a most basic level doesn't everything just come back to the weak links on this offensive line? I agree that Tannehill hasn't shown the ability to throw the deep ball and he seems to have very little chemistry with golden boy Wallace, but my god, he's had nothing close to a consistent level of protection in order to hone this part of his game, not to mention how this has hindered any development whatsoever of instincts needed to detect and avoid pressure, instincts he clearly lacks. And then there's the glacial progress of the running game.

I too have lost a lot of faith in the coaching staff, but no team without elite talent on offense is going to do anything better than tread water with that type of pathetic showing by their offensive line every week.

By the way, before the season started I really thought that if the offense could show steady improvement this year, the defense would step up and become the big-play unit that could help get this team to the next level (win 10 games/compete for a wild card spot). Maybe I'm clouded by general bitterness, but they've been disappointing as well.

Does it go without saying we're fucked against Cincinnati?

Kenny F'ing Powers · Oct 28, 2013

sodenj5 said:
Hardly a game-changer? It would have been third and forever, and if the Pats are lucky, they salvage a field goal from that drive. Instead, they get 10 yards, a fresh set of downs, and end up punching it in for a touchdown making it a 10 point game instead of a 6, or possibly still 3 point game. What's your definition of game-changer, exactly?

It was certainly a big play, but that game was the epitome of a team failure.

The special teams misses a FG, the defense then promptly gives up 17 points over the next 4 third quarter drives, the offensive line gives up six second half sacks, the coaches decided to inexplicably abandon the run game (8 designed runs and 32 designed passes in the second half) that had 104 rushing yards - 5 yards per carry - in the first half, Tannehill/WR's were nowhere near the same page leading to two pretty horrid INT's (double coverage on the first one, no receiver within 15 yards on the second one), and the special teams flubbed another FG and allowed Jones to practically walk up the middle unblocked.

There is no doubt that the penalty was lame and a poor call, but this team did everything they could to blow the game and ended up playing one of the worst halves of football you could play as an organization.

Shelterdog · Oct 28, 2013

dwainw said:
Does it go without saying we're fucked against Cincinnati?

That's till Marv Lewis over there: there is always hope. The Thursday games are always such clusterf***ks so you've got that going for you. That said the Bengal's front seven against the Dolphins' o-line could get pretty damn ugly.

Super Nomario · Oct 28, 2013

I thought Vernon did bat the ball intentionally, but the penalty is ridiculous. 15 yards and a first (the game log actually says 10 yards, but from the LOS rather than the spot, which makes it effectively an 18-yard penalty)? If it was something like 5 yards from the spot and no automatic first, the Pats would have had like a 3rd-and-9 and a tough FG try if they didn't get it. That would have been reasonable. To get a first down on the 13 is totally disproportionate to the infraction.

crystalline · Oct 28, 2013

I also thought Vernon batted it intentionally. I couldn't find a gif, but in realtime it looked like a Pats player was falling through the air and would land directly on the ball, so Vernon below him swatted it away. It seemed like the right call, even if made worse by bad luck that the direction was upfield and that the ball took a very long roll.

Deathofthebambino · Oct 31, 2013

If Miami ends up losing this game tonight, I think the answer is obvious.

They have to stop going up 17-3 against their opponents. That's when the bad shit always seems to happen.

dwainw · Nov 1, 2013

I think I deserve some credit here. I totally predicted "walkoff safety" before that game.

dwainw said:
Does it go without saying we're fucked against Cincinnati?

See? I mean, if you read between the lines, anyway.

Anyway, I still don't feel real great about this team for the myriad obvious reasons already discussed/analyzed/beaten to death. But to focus on some positives:

*Finally, several huge, game-changing plays by the D. And Cameron Wake lives!
*Tanny playing Marino at the end of regulation fun to watch, and a very pleasant surprise.
*The offensive line (or whatever you call that patchwork crew at the end of that game), while clearly still a mess, somehow holding it together enough to help the running game show signs of life and not get Tannehill maimed. The short drops and quick passes and whatnot certainly helped.
*The aforementioned running game.
*A couple of Wallace sightings.

So, there's that. Hard to imagine anything better than 8 - 8 when it's all said and done, but at least we've got 10 days to savor last night's win.

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