Return of the Jedi?

phenweigh

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2005
1,379
Brewster, MA
I realize that they can't wait forever to make a move, but I hoped and thought they would do better and Masterson or someone of his level would be Plan D.
 

NDame616

will bailey
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
2,344
Would he be better than the group of kids we have slotted to be at the back end of the rotation? Unless the offer was for like $2/12M (which of course it won't be. I'm guessing it'll be something like 2/$24M), I don't think I want anything to do with him
 

Otis Foster

rex ryan's podiatrist
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
1,712
Not the most promising news while waiting for JL. If he's going to be a presumptive starter, along with Buchholz and Kelly, then JL (or his doppelganger) makes 4, leaving 1 slot for a young arm. That is, unless one of the first 2 is headed elsewhere, which would be hard to believe, given the rotation issues the RS already have. 
 
If they all stay, which one of the young arms takes number 5? None of them really showed enough in 2014 to walk right in. I have to believe that BC has at least one  and hopefully 2 more moves on filling out the rotation.
 
Or did I miss someone? Late for work already, so AIA if this overlooks the obvious.
 

NDame616

will bailey
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
2,344
Maybe this is a sign that the Sox believe Lester is moving on, and Masterson is the second tier pitcher to back up whomever else they get
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,231
Portland
He's been between a 2 and 4 win pitcher in each of the past 5 years before he got destroyed last year.
Last year he had a .339 BABIP and a career high 4.83 bb/9.  His line driver % went up from 17.8 to 20% but his gb% was the same.  He still has a 3.85 career xFIP which is in line with guys like McCarthy or Porcello
If he's the same 200 inning workhorse he's been and those BABIP numbers right themselves, he's probably going to be a great bargain.  I just don't see a substantial upgrade.
 
This might just be an instance where Farrell knows he can fix him and the Red Sox are listening to him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,948
Maine
NDame616 said:
Maybe this is a sign that the Sox believe Lester is moving on, and Masterson is the second tier pitcher to back up whomever else they get
 
Or maybe it has absolutely nothing to do with Lester, and is a sign that the Lester saga isn't preventing the front office from exploring all options and doing their jobs at the winter meetings.  Perhaps it's simply an earnest offer to a pitcher they feel can help the club in 2015 regardless of where Lester signs or whoever their other free agent/trade targets are.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Has he become one of those Beckett even/odd year types?
 
2011:  216.0 ip, 3.21 era, 122 era+, 3.28 fip, 1.28 whip, 6.6 k/9
2012:  206.1 ip, 4.93 era, 79 era+, 4.16 fip, 1.45 whip, 6.9 k/9
2013:  193.0 ip, 3.45 era, 110 era+, 3.35 fip, 1.20 whip, 9.1 k/9
2014:  128.2 ip, 5.88 era, 63 era+, 4.50 fip, 1.63 whip, 8.1 k/9
 
The last three years, his fip has been lower (in two cases substantially lower) than his era.  So he's been "better" than his era would indicate, I guess.
 
He was injured in 2014.  Did it contribute to the worse performance?  His average fastball velocity went from 93.1 in 2013 down to 90.3 in 2014.  That'll smart.  
 
Look at what hitters did to his fastball (and change up, which is also affected by a lower fastball velocity):
 
2013:
- fastball:  .274 avg, .363 slugging
- change:  .182 avg, .182 slugging
 
2014: 
- fastball:  .345 avg, .554 slugging
- change:  .375 avg, .688 slugging
 
So they just *crushed* those two pitches.  His fastball velocity dipping considerably was probably a huge key.  If his velocity won't return, then he'll probably be an ineffective SP.  If it does return, he'll probably be pretty good again.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
I don't get the negativity. 
 
Right now, the Sox have Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz and possibly one of a bunch of young guys who are either untested or so far have not been overwhelming when given the chance in Boston.  That suggests to me that they need two and ideally three guys from the outside. 
 
I'm hoping the plan is (1) Lester/Plan B, (2) trade dividend (from the pool of Cespedes, Craig, maybe Vic and the prospects who are not untouchable) and (3) lower tier (like Masterson) free agent signing, plus Kelly and Buck, with the kids filling the 6-9 roles.
 
PS: If Lester goes elsewhere, (1) and (2) could look alike or (1) could be someone like Shields, but I'm assuming the Sox have enough juice to accomplish all of this.  True, however, they need to fill out the pen and add a back-up catcher....
 

Laser Show

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 7, 2008
5,096
grimshaw said:
He's been between a 2 and 4 win pitcher in each of the past 5 years before he got destroyed last year.
Last year he had a .339 BABIP and a career high 4.83 bb/9.  His line driver % went up from 17.8 to 20% but his gb% was the same.  He still has a 3.85 career xFIP which is in line with guys like McCarthy or Porcello
If he's the same 200 inning workhorse he's been and those BABIP numbers right themselves, he's probably going to be a great bargain.  I just don't see a substantial upgrade.
 
This might just be an instance where Farrell knows he can fix him and the Red Sox are listening to him.
I know people are hung up on legit top of the rotation starters - and rightly so, to some extent - but our rotation currently consists of:
1) Clay Buchholz, a guy who has broken 170 IP 3 times, with a career high of 189
2) Joe Kelly, a guy who has 3 seasons in the bigs, with last season representing a career high in starts at 17. Career high IP of 124.
3,4,5) Shit against the wall.
 
If Masterson can give you league average 200 IP on a short cheap deal, you take that and run. We need pitchers, period.
 
Also, missed thread name opportunity - "Return of the Jedi?"
 

C4CRVT

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 29, 2008
3,076
Heart of the Green Mountains
Knee injury or not, there’s simply no way that Justin Masterson‘s hits on balls in play prevention skills have taken taken such a dive this year. xBABIP suggests that the real problem was simply the Indians defense, which hasn’t been very friendly to a lot of their pitchers. Getting out of Cleveland and into the National League should have given Masterson a huge boost, but he has allowed 10 runs over his first two starts with the Cardinals and has posted an even higher .429 BABIP! Control has been an issue all season long and he may not be right again until next year. Then, he could be an undervalued draft day buy.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-xbabip-underperformers/
 
Quote from rotographs article on Masterson's 2014. The date of the article is 8/11/2014.
 
I hadn't followed him much since wondering how he'd gotten away when he was a very good pitcher in 2013.
 
His xFIP for the three years prior to last year:
2011- 3.64
2012-4.15
2013-3.33
 
Then 2014, he battled inflamation in his knee which appears to have caused major control issues. I guess the FO thinks that his knee is properly rehabilitated.
 
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/83676214/indians-justin-masterson-placed-on-disabled-list
 

Hoplite

New Member
Oct 26, 2013
1,116
Might be a decent buy low candidate, as he was injured much of last year. Not exactly an exciting name, but I could see him being an improvement over Joe Kelly. And Joe Kelly has done much better out of the bullpen.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,231
Portland
Laser Show said:
I know people are hung up on legit top of the rotation starters - and rightly so, to some extent - but our rotation currently consists of:
1) Clay Buchholz, a guy who has broken 170 IP 3 times, with a career high of 189
2) Joe Kelly, a guy who has 3 seasons in the bigs, with last season representing a career high in starts at 17. Career high IP of 124.
3,4,5) Shit against the wall.
 
If Masterson can give you league average 200 IP on a short cheap deal, you take that and run. We need pitchers, period.
 
Also, missed thread name opportunity - "Return of the Jedi?"
I'm less down on him than others.  He's likely to be better than worse. 
 
My only gripe with signing him is that they would be banking on him bouncing back vs other mid-level guys like the ones mentioned who didn't suddenly bomb.  He seems more like option D out of those innings chewer candidates which I agree is highly needed. 
 
It's just an offer though.  For all we know it could be really low ball one.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
This is a bad signal in my opinion.  I thought the plan was to get two front-line starters, have Kelly & Buch be 3 & 4 and have a year-long audition among the whichever of the 7 young guns are not traded away for the #5 spot.  I don't see how Masterson fits anywhere into that plan.
 

Puffy

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 14, 2006
1,268
Town
Hardball times did an interesting study recently on "the effects of pitch sequencing." (http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-effects-of-pitch-sequencing/)
 
The article suggested that Masterson might be able to better harness certain pitch sequences to get more swinging strikes:
 
Teams considering signing free agent Justin Masterson may wish to work on some pitch tunnel exercises with him to push more of his sinker-slider sequences into this band. When he has done so his SwStr% has jumped dramatically.
 

Hoplite

New Member
Oct 26, 2013
1,116
ALiveH said:
This is a bad signal in my opinion.  I thought the plan was to get two front-line starters, have Kelly & Buch be 3 & 4 and have a year-long audition among the whichever of the 7 young guns are not traded away for the #5 spot.  I don't see how Masterson fits anywhere into that plan.
 
Theoretically, Masterson could be the #3, Buchholz and Kelly could be #4 and #5 and the young pitchers could fill in when someone inevitably gets injured. I'm not sure if that's realistic given our budget though, whatever that is.
 

CaskNFappin

rembrat's protegé
May 20, 2013
254
Woonsocket, RI
Doesn't make much sense in a vacuum.<br />
<br />
Perhaps we have a trade in the works involving Kelly. It hasn't been tossed around much on here, but he might be an attractive piece to a small market team.
 

Toe Nash

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2005
5,638
02130
He has never really been able to get left-handers out, but there really aren't many scary lefties in the division. Chris Davis, if he returns to form, and that's about it. So that weakness is not as bad for the Sox as it may be for others.
 
The question is obviously if he can return to form and how much they are offering him for the chance to find out.
 

Otis Foster

rex ryan's podiatrist
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
1,712
CaskNFappin said:
Doesn't make much sense in a vacuum.<br />
<br />
Perhaps we have a trade in the works involving Kelly. It hasn't been tossed around much on here, but he might be an attractive piece to a small market team.
 
Given the existing pitcher inventory, how does trading Kelly move the RS forward? The only way it makes sense is if it was a first move in a multi-player deal, where the RS are getting a critical piece to upgrade the pitching.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
ALiveH said:
This is a bad signal in my opinion.  I thought the plan was to get two front-line starters, have Kelly & Buch be 3 & 4 and have a year-long audition among the whichever of the 7 young guns are not traded away for the #5 spot.  I don't see how Masterson fits anywhere into that plan.
Did the Sox ever say that their plan was to get two "front-line" starters? Seems like one guy like that and one of Masterson's ilk would be enough to give us at least a competitive rotation--and if somebody falters and none of the kids steps up, we can always grab somebody at the deadline.

Masterson wouldn't be my first choice for that #2/3 guy, but if the Sox are confident he can bounce back, he might be a great bargain.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,235
phenweigh said:
I realize that they can't wait forever to make a move, but I hoped and thought they would do better and Masterson or someone of his level would be Plan D.
 
Who says it's not? The chronological order of the signings doesn't necessarily mean anything.
 

CaskNFappin

rembrat's protegé
May 20, 2013
254
Woonsocket, RI
Otis Foster said:
 
Given the existing pitcher inventory, how does trading Kelly move the RS forward? The only way it makes sense is if it was a first move in a multi-player deal, where the RS are getting a critical piece to upgrade the pitching.
Perhaps a team like San Diego will trade Ross or Cashner for Cespedes and Kelly, as it's possible that other teams are balking at any of the other pitchers we are offering. Therefore signing Masterson for the 4th slot is a precursor to such a deal. For San Diego they get a more proven commodity for their staff (Kelly would slot 3 behind Kennedy), and the impact bat they desire.
 

Otis Foster

rex ryan's podiatrist
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
1,712
CaskNFappin said:
Perhaps a team like San Diego will trade Ross or Cashner for Cespedes and Kelly, as it's possible that other teams are balking at any of the other pitchers we are offering. Therefore signing Masterson for the 4th slot is a precursor to such a deal. For San Diego they get a more proven commodity for their staff (Kelly would slot 3 behind Kennedy), and the impact bat they desire.
 That leaves them swapping Kelly for Ross/Cashner so even if its an upgrade, they're still 1-2 arms short.
 
Moving sideways it seems to me. Kelly isn't a piece of scrap metal. Farrell can probably do a lot with a full season of him.
 

gryoung

Member
SoSH Member
grimshaw said:
He's been between a 2 and 4 win pitcher in each of the past 5 years before he got destroyed last year.
Last year he had a .339 BABIP and a career high 4.83 bb/9.  His line driver % went up from 17.8 to 20% but his gb% was the same.  He still has a 3.85 career xFIP which is in line with guys like McCarthy or Porcello
If he's the same 200 inning workhorse he's been and those BABIP numbers right themselves, he's probably going to be a great bargain.  I just don't see a substantial upgrade.
 
This might just be an instance where Farrell knows he can fix him and the Red Sox are listening to him.
 This shouldn't be underestimated.  Farrell was a damn good pitching coach. 
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,749
Hopefully last year was related to poor mechanics or a minor injury, but I'd certainly be worried about a more significant physical issue.  Fangraphs has his fastball average at 88.9 mph last year, about 3 mph down from his career norms.
 
Buy low candidates are nice in theory, but if a player is "low" because his arm is shot (rather than poor mechanics or luck), that's obviously more concerning. 
 

EllisTheRimMan

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2007
4,560
Csmbridge
radsoxfan said:
I'd certainly be worried about an injury.  Fangraphs has his fastball average at 88.9 mph last year, about 3 mph down from his career norms.
 
Buy low candidates are nice in theory, but if a player is "low" because his arm is shot (rather than poor luck), that's obviously more concerning. 
 
Supposedly, the injury was to his knee.  I'm pretty bullish on this offer if it is for just 1 year and he is not added to the 40 man roster.  If the knee is healed and the Sox coaching staff think they can fix him, then he just gets added to the list of candidates for the 4/5 slots.  There will be many more moves to come.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,628
This certainly not a surprise. There have been smoke signals for months that the FO has a serious jones for getting Masterson back in the fold for 2015.
 
 
radsoxfan said:
Hopefully last year was related to poor mechanics or a minor injury, but I'd certainly be worried about a more significant physical issue.  Fangraphs has his fastball average at 88.9 mph last year, about 3 mph down from his career norms.
 
Buy low candidates are nice in theory, but if a player is "low" because his arm is shot (rather than poor mechanics or luck), that's obviously more concerning. 
 
 
Good news, bad news dept: Terry Francona is adamant that Masterson's pitching woes are not injury-related. Unfortunately, he questioned Masterson's mental approach/desire to compete in MLB.
 

foulkehampshire

hillbilly suburbanite
SoSH Member
Feb 25, 2007
5,101
Wesport, MA
Toe Nash said:
He has never really been able to get left-handers out, but there really aren't many scary lefties in the division. Chris Davis, if he returns to form, and that's about it. So that weakness is not as bad for the Sox as it may be for others.
 
 
The problem is that he makes every lefty look like Chris Davis. He simply does not have the stuff to get LHH out without significant improvements in command and/or the return of plus velocity on his 4 seam fastball. 
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,948
Maine
EllisTheRimMan said:
 
Supposedly, the injury was to his knee.  I'm pretty bullish on this offer if it is for just 1 year and he is not added to the 40 man roster.  If the knee is healed and the Sox coaching staff think they can fix him, then he just gets added to the list of candidates for the 4/5 slots.  There will be many more moves to come.
 
One year is good, but there's no way in hell he's signing a minor league deal. He's reportedly getting interest from multiple teams (saw something last night about the Rangers talking to him).  Odds are pretty good that one year won't be enough to get him unless he's convinced that a year with Farrell can net him a huge payday next winter.  But with the likes of Greinke, Cueto and Samardzija on the market next winter, I can't see Masterson greatly improving his contract chances short of an ace-like performance.  He's better off cashing in now for what he can get.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
In the abstract, I like a one-year Masterson deal.  Has talent, could rebound, short money, etc.  But as others note, there's a ton of risk, and I'd MUCH prefer they get two more reliably good arms this offseason, while letting the prospects fight for the 5th spot.  Masterson's the kind of guy a thin, top-heavy rotation could use.  That's really not us.
 

EllisTheRimMan

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2007
4,560
Csmbridge
Rudy Pemberton said:
I think he'll get a deal similar to the one Dan Haren got last year, 1 year, $10M with a vesting option. He's clearly getting a major league deal and being added to the 40-man.

Why do folks think that Masterson can't bounce back, but that Buchholz will, for example?

The only reason I can see not to sign Masterson is that he has a ton of risk like all the other Sox starters under contract.
 
Well, if he's on the 40, then this will lead to a roster crunch, meaning opportunity cost. So I guess I'm just meh on this possibility.
 

Drek717

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
2,542
NDame616 said:
Maybe this is a sign that the Sox believe Lester is moving on, and Masterson is the second tier pitcher to back up whomever else they get
Or they feel that Lester will sign with them, Farrell is championing Masterson as someone he can fix, and they see a clear path to get their #1 (Lester) long term, a #2 on a one year deal they can retain if desired with a QO next winter, and all without trading a single prospect.
 
We really don't know.  A lot hangs on Lester's decision, whenever it comes down, but I wouldn't suggest we really know how it all plays out.  For all we know the Sox are sandbagging, waiting for every other team to make final offers with Lester having told Henry they'll get final bite at the apple, and the Sox are already prepared to give Lester 7/$165M if it comes to that.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 22, 2008
36,123
Teams are savvier about park effects and level of competition than they used to be, but there are limits to that. A pitcher seeking to build his resume is still better off pitching for an NL team with a pitcher-friendly home park.
 
I wouldn't mind giving Masterson 2-3 years at his current, diminished value. If he's looking for a one-year deal to reestablish his value, I think he'll wind up elsewhere.
 

Laser Show

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 7, 2008
5,096
Harry Hooper said:
This certainly not a surprise. There have been smoke signals for months that the FO has a serious jones for getting Masterson back in the fold for 2015.
 
 
 
 
Good news, bad news dept: Terry Francona is adamant that Masterson's pitching woes are not injury-related. Unfortunately, he questioned Masterson's mental approach/desire to compete in MLB.
This scares the crap out of me. I'd forgotten I'd read this before. Considering the relationship Tito and Masterson have (or had?) I don't take this lightly.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,912
Deep inside Muppet Labs
Laser Show said:
This scares the crap out of me. I'd forgotten I'd read this before. Considering the relationship Tito and Masterson have (or had?) I don't take this lightly.
 
I'm fine with this if Masterson's on a one-year deal since if he's not able to compete at this level any more the obligation to him is minimal.
 

Scoops Bolling

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2007
5,912
The Indians defense factor was likely a large one in Masterson underperforming his peripherals in his time in Cleveland. Last year, the Indians started below average defenders at every infield position. 2013 wasn't much better, with Nick Swisher being the only player to put up an above average UZR. The middle infield combination of Kipnis-Cabrera, which was most commonly behind Masterson throughout his time in Cleveland, combined annually for a range well below average to downright terrible...which is just about the worst situation possible for a guy with Masterson's groundball rates. The Red Sox infield defense may not be spectacular, but it is certainly above average on the right side, and Bogaerts is not nearly as disastrous a defender as Asdrubal Cabrera. Simply getting Masterson onto a squad that can convert more of his grounders into outs could do a significant number on improving his numbers.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,376
San Andreas Fault
Harry Hooper said:
 
Good news, bad news dept: Terry Francona is adamant that Masterson's pitching woes are not injury-related. Unfortunately, he questioned Masterson's mental approach/desire to compete in MLB.
Ouch. Francona really, really liked Masterson. Terry is a smart guy with a lot of patience, I think. For him to conclude this about Justin, not good. Still, how does sub-par mental approach/[SIZE=13.63636302948px]desire [/SIZE]lead to a considerable loss of velocity?
 

diehard24

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 10, 2006
554
Cambridge, MA
foulkehampshire said:
 
The problem is that he makes every lefty look like Chris Davis. He simply does not have the stuff to get LHH out without significant improvements in command and/or the return of plus velocity on his 4 seam fastball. 
 
Exactly my concern. He seemed to have figured out LHH in 2013, but regressed last year.
2014: RHH .239, LHH, .320
2013: RHH .182, LHH, .248
2012: RHH .232, LHH, .296
2011: RHH .210, LHH, .291
 
Hard to believe they can fix this, but they obviously think they can if they view him as a starter.
 

Pedro 4 99MVP

New Member
Dec 6, 2013
56
Maine
I don't HATE this idea, however, I am hoping this is to push the kids for the 5 spot or to replace Kelly as the 4 (if Kelly is traded or moved to bullpen). If this is a move for a top of the rotation starter, then the Sox are in big trouble. He can't get lefties out consistently, and the only way his BABIP is going to come back down to earth is if he stops giving up line drives. I have seen a few people mention that if BABIP comes down, then his other numbers will look much better. For some pitchers, BABIP is just plain unlucky some times, however when your line drive % is 20%, the BABIP probably will remain high. Not to mention, 4.8 BB/9. Can Farrell fix him? Maybe, but there better still be 2 GOOD pitchers coming our way.
 

koufax37

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,474
I have no problem with this.  The Red Sox have not shied away from having more than 4.5 competent starters on the roster, and I don't think this impacts what is happening in slots 1 through 3.
 
Depending on the size of the offer it either indicates that they think he is worth a flyer, or that they think his 2014 struggles were injury related and are behind him or correctable.  I don't have any issue in either case.  Either he pitches well or he is not part of our rotation, so unless dollars or years are unreasonable, I like the move for the bottom of the rotation depth that could emerge into a middle of the rotation surprise.
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,464
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
koufax37 said:
I have no problem with this.  The Red Sox have not shied away from having more than 4.5 competent starters on the roster, and I don't think this impacts what is happening in slots 1 through 3.
 
Depending on the size of the offer it either indicates that they think he is worth a flyer, or that they think his 2014 struggles were injury related and are behind him or correctable.  I don't have any issue in either case.  Either he pitches well or he is not part of our rotation, so unless dollars or years are unreasonable, I like the move for the bottom of the rotation depth that could emerge into a middle of the rotation surprise.
 
Pretty much agree .. but I will be annoyed if they view this as the Starting Pitcher #2 acquisition. They can do a hell of a lot better than Masterson.
 
Maybe they think he can become a (very, very expensive) ROOGY if all else fails.
 

Curll

Guest
Jul 13, 2005
9,205
Justin is an awesome guy. Nice, respectful, and treated everyone very well during his time in Boston.
 
However, his 2011 and 2013 are outliers thus far in his career as a SP. There's got to be a big adjustment for him to contribute in a real way for a contender. 
 

Hoplite

New Member
Oct 26, 2013
1,116
diehard24 said:
 
Exactly my concern. He seemed to have figured out LHH in 2013, but regressed last year.
2014: RHH .239, LHH, .320
2013: RHH .182, LHH, .248
2012: RHH .232, LHH, .296
2011: RHH .210, LHH, .291
 
Hard to believe they can fix this, but they obviously think they can if they view him as a starter.
 
To expand this a little further, over the last three seasons Masterson has had a 5.74 ERA (4.39 xFIP) against lefthanded hitters with a HR/9 IP of 0.91. Over that same time span, he's had a 3.19 ERA (3.12 xFIP) against righties with a HR/9 of 0.51. For what it's worth, fangraphs handedness park factors claims that Progressive Field is 19% friendlier than Fenway Park when it comes to home runs from lefthanded hitters. Fenway Park could perhaps mitigate some of Masterson's issues. I could see someone who gets righties to hit the ball on the ground and lefties to hit the ball in the air being quite successful at Fenway.
 

phenweigh

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2005
1,379
Brewster, MA
DrewDawg said:
 
Who says it's not? The chronological order of the signings doesn't necessarily mean anything.
I think it depends on the details.  In this case it means something to me.  Rasputin has been an advocate for only acquiring two more starters and keeping a rotation spot open for somebody already in the Sox system to fill.  I strongly agree with that strategy.  So if Masterson in facts signs with the Sox before other pitching moves are made, it either means he's one of the two or the Sox are going to add, or they intend to add three starters.  Although I don't think the Sox necessarily need an ace (or two) to realistically compete for a playoff spot, I don't think Justin is likely good enough to be one of the two needed starters.  If he is the third additional starter, I think there is a good chance he's not as good as somebody the Sox already have in house.
 
Now if the Sox made an offer to Masterson after all the better options had already been signed or the Sox traded away many of their in-house options, this would make sense to me.  At this time it indicates the Sox are doing something that I don't think is particularly good strategy.
 
Edit - grammar
 

foulkehampshire

hillbilly suburbanite
SoSH Member
Feb 25, 2007
5,101
Wesport, MA
Hoplite said:
 
To expand this a little further, over the last three seasons Masterson has had a 5.74 ERA (4.39 xFIP) against lefthanded hitters with a HR/9 IP of 0.91. Over that same time span, he's had a 3.19 ERA (3.12 xFIP) against righties with a HR/9 of 0.51. For what it's worth, fangraphs handedness park factors claims that Progressive Field is 19% friendlier than Fenway Park when it comes to home runs from lefthanded hitters. Fenway Park could perhaps mitigate some of Masterson's issues. I could see someone who gets righties to hit the ball on the ground and lefties to hit the ball in the air being quite successful at Fenway.
 
The problem is not just flyballs. He absolutely gets scorched by LHH. Line drives, HR's, hard-hit grounders past infielders, etc. If you looks at some of the at bats, he gets behind in counts because he junks his slider or change-up to the outside of the plate hoping to pick up called strikes or get a weak swing. Then he's forced to throw his fastball to pick up a strike which they get a real nice look at from his arm angle. When he could hump it up in the zone at 95+ with decent command, this was less of an issue. At 89-90...any LHH is going to make serious contact on it.
 

Otis Foster

rex ryan's podiatrist
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
1,712
Edes says Masterson's decision is 'not imminent'.
 
https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/542360443658842112
 
Edit: Asterson didn't get an offer.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I'm thinking that bringing in Masterson means Kelly could be involved in another potential deal. Kelly has value as a low cost MLB ready pitcher and might be more attractive in a package than an unknown talent. IMO the Sox still deal for someone to fill the top two slots in the rotation and this new development may be with the thought of Buch, Masterson and one of the "kids" rounding out the rotation.