Red Sox sign Martin Perez

The Gray Eagle

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Why pay Martin Perez twice what Wacha's base salary will be? It doesn't save money against the tax to give more to a worse pitcher. We gave Perez $2 million more than he got last year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Why pay Martin Perez twice what Wacha's base salary will be? It doesn't save money against the tax to give more to a worse pitcher. We gave Perez $2 million more than he got last year.
We have no idea if other teams were interested in Perez or not. Maybe another team was offering $5.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I don't know what people were expecting. They want to cut a huge amount of salary in 2020 and still maximize their chances of competing. That points to a high-variance strategy where they replace guys like Price and Holt with cheaper guys who have the potential to outperform their salaries.
I don't think the objection is so much to the fact that we're adding guys whose upside is fringe-average performance. I think it's more that we're spending too much on them, at least in Perez' case. Maybe that's unfair, and certainly it might be premature.

One thing about Perez that gives me some hope is that he's quite good at preventing fly balls (though the non-flies include a lot of line drives as well as grounders, which explains the high BABIPs allowed). This kind of goes with the Peraza signing -- if the Sox are going back to a keep-it-out-of-the-air run prevention strategy, a defensive specialist for 2B makes sense.

Another promising tidbit is that his contact rate went down last year to a degree that doesn't look like normal variation. So he may have figured something out that Bloom thinks the Sox can exploit.
 

The Gray Eagle

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We have no idea if other teams were interested in Perez or not. Maybe another team was offering $5.
So let him go then. Why do we need to outbid anyone for him? He is not a good pitcher. If we were going to outbid anyone for a questionable guy who already signed we would have been better off outbidding the Mets for Wacha. Once that ship sailed, we'd be better off waiting and seeing who is still out there in a couple weeks rather than overpaying for Perez.
 

rymflaherty

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If we were playing word association and you asked me “worst starting pitchers in the league” it wouldn’t be too long until I wound up at Martin Perez.

I’ll have to read through all the posts, plenty of people smarter than me here when it comes to the game, so maybe there’s something I’m missing, but to me Perez is a guy that doesn’t strike anyone out and gets destroyed by right handers...doesn’t seem like a guy you look forward to see pitch every 5 days. When he takes the mound the best case scenario seems to be praying to bapip God’s for a quality start.

edit -sss, just 5 games, but quite the track record vs the MFY’s
They’ve put up a 398/684/1.137 slash line
 
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Cesar Crespo

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So let him go then. Why do we need to outbid anyone for him? He is not a good pitcher. If we were going to outbid anyone for a questionable guy who already signed we would have been better off outbidding the Mets for Wacha. Once that ship sailed, we'd be better off waiting and seeing who is still out there in a couple weeks rather than overpaying for Perez.
Maybe they like him and see something they can correct. They did get the club option for the 2nd year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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We have no idea if other teams were interested in Perez or not. Maybe another team was offering $5.
Also, Wacha wasn't better than Perez last year. Fewer innings, higher FIP. Perez for a flat $6M might end up being a better deal than Wacha for $3M plus up to $7M in incentives.
 

joe dokes

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The Bloom is definitely off the rose. So far Chaim has had a horrendous start to his Red Sox tenure. Martin Perez is a vast overpay for his talent level.
I think I'll wait until next tuesday or wednesday to make any firm conclusions about Bloomage.
 

chawson

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I think he’ll honestly end up with an ERA within 0.25 runs of Dallas Keuchel. The more I dig around on him the more I like it.
 
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Manuel Aristides

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The amount of experts in here that are just certain this was a mistake already is disappointing. Not only has the guy not pitched a single inning, but they've just barely begun assembling the short, medium, and long term rosters as Bloom sees them. There's plenty to be nervous about, I'm not here to tell anyone Martin Perez looks amazing or that they have to love it, but the certainty belies a lack of critical thinking that used to be abundant on these boards.

Take a breath. I used to learn things in these threads.
 

Green Monster

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That's nice, but the team missed the playoffs last year. I don't think the goal for 2020 should be to replicate 2019, but cheaper.
Perhaps you should tell John Henry .....unless of course you have some insight into what is the plan for the $14M that was saved. That money could easily go towards upgrading another position which would be a net positive. Its not like this team is a finished product yet.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Also, Wacha wasn't better than Perez last year. Fewer innings, higher FIP. Perez for a flat $6M might end up being a better deal than Wacha for $3M plus up to $7M in incentives.
Plus Wacha is held together with duct tape, chewing gum and bailing wire.
Last 5 seasons:
Perez: 713 IP, 4.90 ERA, 4.60 FIP
Wacha: 696 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4.18 FIP

IP virtually the same, Wacha much better ERA and FIP.
You don't have to sign either, but one guy has been clearly better and it's not the guy we paid more for.
 

BigSoxFan

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The amount of experts in here that are just certain this was a mistake already is disappointing. Not only has the guy not pitched a single inning, but they've just barely begun assembling the short, medium, and long term rosters as Bloom sees them. There's plenty to be nervous about, I'm not here to tell anyone Martin Perez looks amazing or that they have to love it, but the certainty belies a lack of critical thinking that used to be abundant on these boards.

Take a breath. I used to learn things in these threads.
Please feel free to educate us naysayers with some actual analysis.
 

opes

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The amount of experts in here that are just certain this was a mistake already is disappointing. Not only has the guy not pitched a single inning, but they've just barely begun assembling the short, medium, and long term rosters as Bloom sees them. There's plenty to be nervous about, I'm not here to tell anyone Martin Perez looks amazing or that they have to love it, but the certainty belies a lack of critical thinking that used to be abundant on these boards.

Take a breath. I used to learn things in these threads.
No matter how much you are wishing these will turn out to be good signings, they both have more than enough years in the game and stats in the books to give a track record of how excellent they are at being mediocre at best. And that information is easily found from multiple sources.
So what some of these posters that lack critical thinking skills are expecting is nothing greater than warm body to step on the field every now and then and amaze us occasionally Feats of Strength on a baseball diamond. But please, enlighten us of your view point. We havent heard enough to lean one way or another.
 

nvalvo

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$5 million, plus $2 million more in incentives (according to Buster Olney's Twitter).
So... basically the same as Perez' deal.

Anderson strikes out basically no one these days, so he's pretty much a product of his BABIP. He was pitching in front of MLB's best defense in Oakland, and did much better than his peripherals would suggest. I'm not sure how repeatable that success is in Milwaukee.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Once again, its amusing seeing people definitively use terms like "overpay" or "bargain" with little to no information about the market around a particular transaction.

Its not like you can search on your phone for what it takes to acquire a Martin Perez and get accurate results. Its true you can work up comps but, like real estate, there are a host of factors that might cause a clearing price to come in lower or higher than a theoretical value.

Unless one is privy to all of those factors, I don't see how anyone can definitively characterize a deal's relative value.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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The amount of experts in here that are just certain this was a mistake already is disappointing. Not only has the guy not pitched a single inning, but they've just barely begun assembling the short, medium, and long term rosters as Bloom sees them. There's plenty to be nervous about, I'm not here to tell anyone Martin Perez looks amazing or that they have to love it, but the certainty belies a lack of critical thinking that used to be abundant on these boards.

Take a breath. I used to learn things in these threads.
Au contraire, he has pitched over 900 innings, many of them pretty bad. He hasn't had an ERA+ above 100 since 2016, and he's only achieved that twice in seven seasons. He's really accomplished very little since his rookie year. He seems at this point in his career like a classic "take a flier on a guy off the scrap heap" guy, except that you used to be able to get players like that for free.

I don't think anybody is objecting to the "take a flier" part, it's the $6 million part that doesn't make sense.
 

chawson

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It makes plenty of sense. It allows Bloom to trade Price and whomever else and not need a major league starter in return.

And per Statcast and elsewhere, Perez’s ability to induce weak contact is elite, so there’s upside in front of a good defense.

He is better than Porcello, who throws much less hard and needed an elite pitch framer to get called strikes on high fastballs. What free agent starter did you want them to sign?
 

chrisfont9

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So... basically the same as Perez' deal.

Anderson strikes out basically no one these days, so he's pretty much a product of his BABIP. He was pitching in front of MLB's best defense in Oakland, and did much better than his peripherals would suggest. I'm not sure how repeatable that success is in Milwaukee.
Yeah, in that context I'd probably rather see what Perez can do.
 

BigSoxFan

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Once again, its amusing seeing people definitively use terms like "overpay" or "bargain" with little to no information about the market around a particular transaction.

Its not like you can search on your phone for what it takes to acquire a Martin Perez and get accurate results. Its true you can work up comps but, like real estate, there are a host of factors that might cause a clearing price to come in lower or higher than a theoretical value.

Unless one is privy to all of those factors, I don't see how anyone can definitively characterize a deal's relative value.
How exactly would you propose fans analyze deals then? It’s perfectly reasonable to give an initial impression based on the data we have. Some of us will be wrong and some of us will be right. It’s just kind of how it works. We all hope he performs well.

Everyone is giving their opinions based on their analysis of the data at hand. Don’t see why that evokes such a strong reaction or why it would be “amusing“. It’s all part of the fan experience.
 

effectivelywild

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It makes plenty of sense. It allows Bloom to trade Price and whomever else and not need a major league starter in return.

And per Statcast and elsewhere, Perez’s ability to induce weak contact is elite, so there’s upside in front of a good defense.

He is better than Porcello, who throws much less hard and needed an elite pitch framer to get called strikes on high fastballs. What free agent starter did you want them to sign?
I assume (though obviously without any evidence) that Bloom and the people he listens to saw something (maybe even just that elite weak contact %) and think there's a way to unlock a better version of him. There are a couple of indicators that suggest he's been better than he looked. Take a look at the Astros---they have a track record of taking pitchers and tweaking them to vastly improve them (to be fair, the Astros have generally had better raw material to work with than Perez). But still, targeting underperforming pitchers with the hope of "fixing" them is how teams get bargains. While its entirely possible that Bloom and co. are wrong, I don't think that they said "yep, that 76 ERA+, that's what this teams needs for 6 mil"
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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How exactly would you propose fans analyze deals then? It’s perfectly reasonable to give an initial impression based on the data we have. Some of us will be wrong and some of us will be right. It’s just kind of how it works. We all hope he performs well.

Everyone is giving their opinions based on their analysis of the data at hand. Don’t see why that evokes such a strong reaction or why it would be “amusing“. It’s all part of the fan experience.
You used the word "seems" which makes your post perfectly reasonable imo.

Others are quick to label things definitively without having any of the facts about how the market formed. Do we know if Perez had other suitors? Who were they? Were some weaker teams willing to pay more? Do the Sox have other moves which make Perez cost and production make sense? Etc etc.

My point is that its very hard to confidently characterize something's relative value with very limited information. You did not do that.
 

BigSoxFan

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You used the word "seems" which makes your post perfectly reasonable imo.

Others are quick to label things definitively without having any of the facts about how the market formed. Do we know if Perez had other suitors? Who were they? Were some weaker teams willing to pay more? Do the Sox have other moves which make Perez cost and production make sense? Etc etc.

My point is that its very hard to confidently characterize something's relative value with very limited information. You did not do that.
Fair points. Truthfully, in a normal offseason where we’re not replicating the KC Royals spending model, I don’t think this deal makes much of a ripple at all. I think it’s the fact that we committed a decent amount of our limited funds on a pretty objectively blah player is what confused some people, myself included.

I think the larger point, one that I believe you’re making, is that it’s obviously incredibly difficult to analyze deals on a standalone basis. These are the first couple of chess moves that Bloom is making. I’m confident that he’s a smart guy who knows what he’s doing. Really looking forward to seeing his trading chops. Those moves will determine this offseason, not these 1 year lotto tickets.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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At a fraction of the cost #winning
This is what a fire sale looks like.

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The Wacha-Perez-Anderson conundrum doesn't seem worth spending a lot of energy trying to figure out. If Bloom is going to let Porcello walk at $10 million and not replace him with a ML minimum guy, the $3-7 million market seems like a basket of pick'ems once you figure in incentives, options, etc. Bloom might see something in Perez he likes, or he might think that no one will give a rat's ass about it a year or two from now.
 

brandonchristensen

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I dunno. We went from Porcello at $20m to Perez for $6m. That seems pretty good for a small drop in quality. $14m freed up.
 

chawson

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Teachdad46

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Last 5 seasons:
Perez: 713 IP, 4.90 ERA, 4.60 FIP
Wacha: 696 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4.18 FIP

IP virtually the same, Wacha much better ERA and FIP.
You don't have to sign either, but one guy has been clearly better and it's not the guy we paid more for.
While this may be true, it's misleading. If you order Wacha's numbers by his best-to-worst FIP over his seven year career, it is very close to chronological order. His FIP has pretty much gone downhill from his first year 'til now. ('13 -'14 -'17 -'15 -'16 -'18 -'19) Perez's numbers also show decline, though not as linear.
 

high cheese

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Unfortunately, the Red Sox ownership suffers from the insatiable desire to be "the smartest guy in the room." Why go after the obvious when they can see what others can't see? Loved Dombrowski because he identified needs and went after ballplayers he knew could fill those needs. All the blather about wrecking the farm system, Sale's "bad" contract, etc is just that.

Instead of maximizing the brilliant core of homegrown players mixed with strong acquisitions they fire him so they can reinvent the wheel. Luxury tax is an issue for the future but the with this team the future is now!
 

ehaz

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I don’t quite get the hate. It’s $6M and for all the warts, you can confidently pencil him in for ~150 - 180 innings. That alone is worth something.

On top of that, Perez throws 96 from the left side. They clearly have a plan for Perez, but even if they don’t “fix” him, at least he’ll take the ball every 5th day with Porcello 2019 numbers.
 

geoflin

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Free agent pitchers who sign for under $10 million per year do so for a reason - nobody really trusts them. If they were reliable and trustworthy they would be signed for more. So the whole point of signing a pitcher in this price range is because you see something to indicate that the reward might be greater than the risk. Tampa's history, and Bloom's, is to find enough of these types of players, whether they be has been's, wannabe's, never been's, prospects, discards, etc. who turn out to contribute value to a contending team. In the process some of them will be worthless. We can only hope that he is right and Perez can contribute something. But like every other GM, some of his signings will be bad ones. If this is a bad one at least it's only $6 million, not upwards of $15 or $20 million per year.