Why pay Martin Perez twice what Wacha's base salary will be? It doesn't save money against the tax to give more to a worse pitcher. We gave Perez $2 million more than he got last year.
Does Martin have a problem throwing to first base?But Matt Young will be great pitching a full season at Fenway!
We have no idea if other teams were interested in Perez or not. Maybe another team was offering $5.Why pay Martin Perez twice what Wacha's base salary will be? It doesn't save money against the tax to give more to a worse pitcher. We gave Perez $2 million more than he got last year.
I don't think the objection is so much to the fact that we're adding guys whose upside is fringe-average performance. I think it's more that we're spending too much on them, at least in Perez' case. Maybe that's unfair, and certainly it might be premature.I don't know what people were expecting. They want to cut a huge amount of salary in 2020 and still maximize their chances of competing. That points to a high-variance strategy where they replace guys like Price and Holt with cheaper guys who have the potential to outperform their salaries.
So let him go then. Why do we need to outbid anyone for him? He is not a good pitcher. If we were going to outbid anyone for a questionable guy who already signed we would have been better off outbidding the Mets for Wacha. Once that ship sailed, we'd be better off waiting and seeing who is still out there in a couple weeks rather than overpaying for Perez.We have no idea if other teams were interested in Perez or not. Maybe another team was offering $5.
Maybe they like him and see something they can correct. They did get the club option for the 2nd year.So let him go then. Why do we need to outbid anyone for him? He is not a good pitcher. If we were going to outbid anyone for a questionable guy who already signed we would have been better off outbidding the Mets for Wacha. Once that ship sailed, we'd be better off waiting and seeing who is still out there in a couple weeks rather than overpaying for Perez.
Also, Wacha wasn't better than Perez last year. Fewer innings, higher FIP. Perez for a flat $6M might end up being a better deal than Wacha for $3M plus up to $7M in incentives.We have no idea if other teams were interested in Perez or not. Maybe another team was offering $5.
You must be new herethe guys whole MO is recognizing undervalued talent. insane that you think he is wrong about these guys before they even play a game in a red sox uniform. I'll trust the process for at least two seasons before throwing the guy under the bus
You must have one of your patented all caps shout-outs figured out for him for the gamethread when he strikes out 6 Yankees in a row.Insanity. I'm happy. I'm surprised. Can't believe we got em.
I think I'll wait until next tuesday or wednesday to make any firm conclusions about Bloomage.The Bloom is definitely off the rose. So far Chaim has had a horrendous start to his Red Sox tenure. Martin Perez is a vast overpay for his talent level.
Plus Wacha is held together with duct tape, chewing gum and bailing wire.Also, Wacha wasn't better than Perez last year. Fewer innings, higher FIP. Perez for a flat $6M might end up being a better deal than Wacha for $3M plus up to $7M in incentives.
I get the concern about chewing gum, and maybe even the duct tape, but bailing wire is pretty strong stuff.Plus Wacha is held together with duct tape, chewing gum and bailing wire.
That's nice, but the team missed the playoffs last year. I don't think the goal for 2020 should be to replicate 2019, but cheaper.That's exactly how I am looking at things. Some may prefer different metrics but seems pretty comparable at a fraction of the cost.
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Perhaps you should tell John Henry .....unless of course you have some insight into what is the plan for the $14M that was saved. That money could easily go towards upgrading another position which would be a net positive. Its not like this team is a finished product yet.That's nice, but the team missed the playoffs last year. I don't think the goal for 2020 should be to replicate 2019, but cheaper.
Also, Wacha wasn't better than Perez last year. Fewer innings, higher FIP. Perez for a flat $6M might end up being a better deal than Wacha for $3M plus up to $7M in incentives.
Last 5 seasons:Plus Wacha is held together with duct tape, chewing gum and bailing wire.
Please feel free to educate us naysayers with some actual analysis.The amount of experts in here that are just certain this was a mistake already is disappointing. Not only has the guy not pitched a single inning, but they've just barely begun assembling the short, medium, and long term rosters as Bloom sees them. There's plenty to be nervous about, I'm not here to tell anyone Martin Perez looks amazing or that they have to love it, but the certainty belies a lack of critical thinking that used to be abundant on these boards.
Take a breath. I used to learn things in these threads.
No matter how much you are wishing these will turn out to be good signings, they both have more than enough years in the game and stats in the books to give a track record of how excellent they are at being mediocre at best. And that information is easily found from multiple sources.The amount of experts in here that are just certain this was a mistake already is disappointing. Not only has the guy not pitched a single inning, but they've just barely begun assembling the short, medium, and long term rosters as Bloom sees them. There's plenty to be nervous about, I'm not here to tell anyone Martin Perez looks amazing or that they have to love it, but the certainty belies a lack of critical thinking that used to be abundant on these boards.
Take a breath. I used to learn things in these threads.
Eh, not so much anymore. An ambidextrous neo-Conservative Zionist. Began throwing curve-balls mid-career. Now dependent on the Eephus. Maybe Chaim needs to give him a try-out.And he's also a lefty.
I laughed. Thank you.Insanity. I'm happy. I'm surprised. Can't believe we got em.
$5 million, plus $2 million more in incentives (according to Buster Olney's Twitter).Brett Anderson to the Brewers. I'll be curious to see what he got (no numbers yet) as another data point on the crapshoot lefty starter market.
So... basically the same as Perez' deal.$5 million, plus $2 million more in incentives (according to Buster Olney's Twitter).
Au contraire, he has pitched over 900 innings, many of them pretty bad. He hasn't had an ERA+ above 100 since 2016, and he's only achieved that twice in seven seasons. He's really accomplished very little since his rookie year. He seems at this point in his career like a classic "take a flier on a guy off the scrap heap" guy, except that you used to be able to get players like that for free.The amount of experts in here that are just certain this was a mistake already is disappointing. Not only has the guy not pitched a single inning, but they've just barely begun assembling the short, medium, and long term rosters as Bloom sees them. There's plenty to be nervous about, I'm not here to tell anyone Martin Perez looks amazing or that they have to love it, but the certainty belies a lack of critical thinking that used to be abundant on these boards.
Take a breath. I used to learn things in these threads.
Yeah, in that context I'd probably rather see what Perez can do.So... basically the same as Perez' deal.
Anderson strikes out basically no one these days, so he's pretty much a product of his BABIP. He was pitching in front of MLB's best defense in Oakland, and did much better than his peripherals would suggest. I'm not sure how repeatable that success is in Milwaukee.
I'm glad the message was interpreted in the spirit that was intended. I copped the idea from SoxFanInPdx, and just wanted to keep the good times rolling.I laughed. Thank you.
How exactly would you propose fans analyze deals then? It’s perfectly reasonable to give an initial impression based on the data we have. Some of us will be wrong and some of us will be right. It’s just kind of how it works. We all hope he performs well.Once again, its amusing seeing people definitively use terms like "overpay" or "bargain" with little to no information about the market around a particular transaction.
Its not like you can search on your phone for what it takes to acquire a Martin Perez and get accurate results. Its true you can work up comps but, like real estate, there are a host of factors that might cause a clearing price to come in lower or higher than a theoretical value.
Unless one is privy to all of those factors, I don't see how anyone can definitively characterize a deal's relative value.
I assume (though obviously without any evidence) that Bloom and the people he listens to saw something (maybe even just that elite weak contact %) and think there's a way to unlock a better version of him. There are a couple of indicators that suggest he's been better than he looked. Take a look at the Astros---they have a track record of taking pitchers and tweaking them to vastly improve them (to be fair, the Astros have generally had better raw material to work with than Perez). But still, targeting underperforming pitchers with the hope of "fixing" them is how teams get bargains. While its entirely possible that Bloom and co. are wrong, I don't think that they said "yep, that 76 ERA+, that's what this teams needs for 6 mil"It makes plenty of sense. It allows Bloom to trade Price and whomever else and not need a major league starter in return.
And per Statcast and elsewhere, Perez’s ability to induce weak contact is elite, so there’s upside in front of a good defense.
He is better than Porcello, who throws much less hard and needed an elite pitch framer to get called strikes on high fastballs. What free agent starter did you want them to sign?
You used the word "seems" which makes your post perfectly reasonable imo.How exactly would you propose fans analyze deals then? It’s perfectly reasonable to give an initial impression based on the data we have. Some of us will be wrong and some of us will be right. It’s just kind of how it works. We all hope he performs well.
Everyone is giving their opinions based on their analysis of the data at hand. Don’t see why that evokes such a strong reaction or why it would be “amusing“. It’s all part of the fan experience.
Fair points. Truthfully, in a normal offseason where we’re not replicating the KC Royals spending model, I don’t think this deal makes much of a ripple at all. I think it’s the fact that we committed a decent amount of our limited funds on a pretty objectively blah player is what confused some people, myself included.You used the word "seems" which makes your post perfectly reasonable imo.
Others are quick to label things definitively without having any of the facts about how the market formed. Do we know if Perez had other suitors? Who were they? Were some weaker teams willing to pay more? Do the Sox have other moves which make Perez cost and production make sense? Etc etc.
My point is that its very hard to confidently characterize something's relative value with very limited information. You did not do that.
Ah so he’s David Prices replacement.edit -sss, just 5 games, but quite the track record vs the MFY’s
They’ve put up a 398/684/1.137 slash line
At a fraction of the cost #winningAh so he’s David Prices replacement.
This is what a fire sale looks like.At a fraction of the cost #winning
Brasier is probably the opener to pin him to if Perez is gonna be a bulk guy. Though a Eovaldi/Perez start is probably a quality seven innings more often than not.Any chance Perez gets a RH opener for his games?
While this may be true, it's misleading. If you order Wacha's numbers by his best-to-worst FIP over his seven year career, it is very close to chronological order. His FIP has pretty much gone downhill from his first year 'til now. ('13 -'14 -'17 -'15 -'16 -'18 -'19) Perez's numbers also show decline, though not as linear.Last 5 seasons:
Perez: 713 IP, 4.90 ERA, 4.60 FIP
Wacha: 696 IP, 4.13 ERA, 4.18 FIP
IP virtually the same, Wacha much better ERA and FIP.
You don't have to sign either, but one guy has been clearly better and it's not the guy we paid more for.