He hasn't played 2B since 2019, and that was one game. He hasn't played 1B since 2016, and that was one game.
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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As an aside, another contributor to the cupboard being bare after Dombrowski left is that that Sox had the good fortune of having a a bunch of major league ready talent being promoted in a fairly short period of time. Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, Benitendi, Vazquez and Devers were all promoted fairly close together. Within a 3-4 year period this group became the type of young core that we crave today. To DD's credit he refused to include any of them in trades, but the team had not been good in restocking until recently and there is still work to do on that front. Hopefully we can get back to that point and find a way to better identify and retain young stars.
That's the thing, Muncy wasn't even bad! He put up a .196/.329/.384 line last year...and that was good for 2.7 bWAR.
It's worse than his 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons, but having a 16% walk rate in today's game pretty much makes you a good player no matter what.
I would sign on to having Devers being good through his age 33 season and then paying him for three years of just OK-ness.
This was an example, not an absolute, but sure. I’d also sign on to Devers being as good a hitter as Miggy in his prime.
Outside of Mayer though who are they actually waiting for, Bleis? Yorke took a big step back last year, Blaze isnt a top 100 and looking pretty Mediocre. Rafaela might be a good bet though people are saying he could be ready this year. If you want to be the Braves then you need multiple high tier prospects coming up at the same time. And I still dont get the narrative that Dombrowski cleaned out the farm system. He traded awayguys like Moncada, Kopech, and Margot, who def havent lived up to their rating. Meanwhile he kept all the prospects like Benintendi that did work out and also brought us guys like Bello, Cassas, and Rafaela who are three of the top four prospects. How is that emptying the farm?
So he's signing with another team today, based on how things have gone this off-season.
Regarding Devers, it's a really tough situation for BOS. Does Devers really have anything to lose by not going to free agency, besides the low chance of a freak career-ending injury?
Yankees…Judge, Torres, Severino
Dodgers….Kershaw, Urias, Lux, Turner?
Off the top of my head its hard to think of other teams outside the mot popular.
Eye test alone, from the many games I saw Blaze play in last year, he looked far from mediocre. Am I missing something?
Small sample, and the strike outs will be there, but as a 19 year old in High A he hit .301/.387/.441 for an OPS of .828 in his 100 or PA there, he definitely didn't look overmatched, seems promising to me
It would be helpful to those following this thread to stop making drive-by posts that do not move the conversation forward or add to the discussion.
I think the major players that we're waiting on are Casas, Yorke, Mayer, Bleis, Rafaela, and Bello. There are a few others who could emerge in the next year or two as contributors as well, but less likely to be impact players. I know that a couple of these players (Casas, Bello) are likely to be contributing at the ML level this year, but we are still waiting to see if they reach their potential. We don't need all of these guys to hit to have a solid young core. If 2-3 reach their potential that would be seriously impactful. If Casas puts up a 3-4 win season this year and Bello emerges as a legitimate top of the rotation starter then I think the team can really start pushing next year. If they don't then we're still waiting to see if they break through or if some of the other players on the list do.
It's not like the next window starting in 2025 is guaranteed or anything, it's just that's the year a lot of people are pegging as it's a reasonable guess as to when Mayer might be ready and these other guys will likely have either had a chance to prove it at the ML level or will be ready to do so. If no core has emerged by 2025 then the franchise is going to be in trouble (barring new talent acquired between now and then). The window could start in 2024 or even 2023, although I think 2023 is really unlikely.
Also, although Moncada, Kopech and Margot may not have hit their highest expectations, they certainly have contributed solidly at the ML level. Moncada contributed at a ~4 win pace from 2019 through 2021. Kopech has been useful and still has 3 years left of team control to break out. He might or might not do it. Margot has been a solid league-averageish role player.
The Sox might or might not have won it all in 2018 without Chris Sale, but they also might have gotten it done in 2021 if they had Moncada instead of Sale. His 4 wins and .375 OBP would have been incredible for the Sox at 2B that year.
It seems a bit weird to cite Benintendi as a player that did work out and Moncada as one that didn't.
Don’t worry, I won’t clog up the board with my unwanted views, I’m just posting to ask a simple question:
If they succeed in signing Turner, could the plan be to have him play 3rd and have Devers dh?
Thank you, I’ll hang up and listen.
If they succeed in signing Turner, could the plan be to have him play 3rd and have Devers dh?
Thank you, I’ll hang up and listen.
"Heavily in mix", the kiss of death probably.
At 2 years though given the likely timeline of this team, it would make a lot of sense to do this deal
At 2 years though given the likely timeline of this team, it would make a lot of sense to do this deal
Yeah, I would think that Turner would be the primary DH, occasional fielder. Who knows if that is interesting to him or not.
Back in '21, it seemed to me that Bloom executed a similar strategy of signing under-the-radar FA to short-term deals (i.e. Kiki) with the intent of flipping them at the deadline. Of course, that (theoretical) plan was nixed when the Red Sox overperformed and came 2 games away from the World Series.
This season, is a WS contender going to be interested in dealing for Kenley Jansen, assuming he pitches well this upcoming year? Absolutely. And I think the same can be said for Justin Turner. Note: This, however, is what makes the Hosmer DFA so curious. He seemed to be another example of a decent trade chip at the deadline, if hitting well. It's easier to convince a player with a NT clause to relinquish it in exchange for an opportunity to play for a contender.
At this point, I think Devers gets traded. And sooner than later. He's not going to accept an offer from the Red Sox now unless blown out of the water, and Bloom can't afford to wait in exchange for a diminished return (Mookie).
RE these Blaze Jordan posts.
It's unfair to call him mediocre. He put up really solid numbers across age-advanced competition in two separate levels this year. Early in the season, there were significant concerns about how he wasn't pulling the ball with any authority, but those concerns softened as he moved up the ladder.
The issue with Jordan is exactly what it was when he was drafted by Boston: He's a bad body 3b most likely destined for 1B. For him to be successful he's going to need to be among the best bats in minor-league baseball. He will probably start next season in High A, and if all goes well will get significant time inAA.
AA broke a lot of really good offensive prospects last year. The delta between A and High A and AA is probably bigger than it ever has. If Jordan is able to hold onto his 120+ wRC he's really intriguing, especially as a 20 year old, but it's going to be a significant test.
Blaze Jordan is both overrated and underrated. The internet's fascination with him created hype that was never justified, but he's an intriguing prospect.
He's not the center piece of a trade of a regular major league contributor but he's a very nice add-on in the event that Boston trades for one. If they don't trade him, he's someone to watch and hope for. There's enough there to follow him closely, even if he's more of a top 20 guy in the system than top 10.
It's unfair to call him mediocre. He put up really solid numbers across age-advanced competition in two separate levels this year. Early in the season, there were significant concerns about how he wasn't pulling the ball with any authority, but those concerns softened as he moved up the ladder.
The issue with Jordan is exactly what it was when he was drafted by Boston: He's a bad body 3b most likely destined for 1B. For him to be successful he's going to need to be among the best bats in minor-league baseball. He will probably start next season in High A, and if all goes well will get significant time inAA.
AA broke a lot of really good offensive prospects last year. The delta between A and High A and AA is probably bigger than it ever has. If Jordan is able to hold onto his 120+ wRC he's really intriguing, especially as a 20 year old, but it's going to be a significant test.
Blaze Jordan is both overrated and underrated. The internet's fascination with him created hype that was never justified, but he's an intriguing prospect.
He's not the center piece of a trade of a regular major league contributor but he's a very nice add-on in the event that Boston trades for one. If they don't trade him, he's someone to watch and hope for. There's enough there to follow him closely, even if he's more of a top 20 guy in the system than top 10.
What's the theoretical return in a Devers trade? They had better not staple Sale's contract to it and take lesser players. This franchise needs an infusion of talent more than they need money.
Well from what I remember they had to put one of the two in the deal for Sale. Moncada had one very good year where he hit over 300 with 25 bombs but he’s struggled since, hit 212 last year and has had more injury issues then Beni, who just cashed in and is coming off a all star season. I just dont think Dombrowski left the farm in bad shape as people are making out was more my point. Feels like the top 30 is 70/30 him vs Bloom.
Calling mediocre was prob unfair. He’s hit at single a just fine I guess maybe I expected more power from the hype he was given. Prob nitpicking though for a kid who’s only 19.
I don't love the trade simulator tool, but it assumes Devers medium surplus value to be 37 million. To put that in Red Sox terms, if we wanted the Red Sox to match 37 million in surplus value, a trade could look like:
I'm not sure I'd be happy with getting a similiar return (and I love Bleis, but if his analogue misses, woof)
They should just extend the man.
He'd also potentially net a supplemental pick assuming the team trading for him offers him a QO. Another reason the Sox should hang onto him since they are in the hoarding business apparently.
Yeah, that's another good point as to why to not trade him. Like, I have trouble accepting that Boston would trade him and not get some sort of blue chip prospect that's near contributing. The trouble is, with how service time works, those players could theoretically be more valuable than Devers today (the trade machine certainly thinks so).
Just to give folks nightmares, let's just get all the people we wanted in the Betts trade:
Yorke's step back was accompanied by injury issues. He looked good again in the AFL.
I'm assuming he starts '23 in AA? We'll see how he handles that.
While this is true, isn't it also a reason for the Red Sox to trade him ... before they sign him to an extension, and then see an injury end his usefulness?
This is waaaaaay off.
Defense is massively underrated by fans.
In your example if the difference in range came into play maybe twice in a game, that's the difference of two hits a game. You think that difference on a games outcome is minimal?
That difference would be enormous.
Completely agreed, and there is often a cascading effect, in that an error or play not made can end up forcing the pitcher to throw 10 or 20 extra pitches, which in turn shortens their outing by an inning or two. Defensive metrics may not be perfect, defense itself is still probably underrated.
Sure, and they should take that into account when weighing the likelihood that they'll be able to re-sign him.
I mean these are two of our top 5 prospects and our recent first rounder. That’s a pretty good haul no?
Unless I’m misunderstanding what you were saying…
I like all 3, if just don't know if I'd be thrilled with trading Devers for two guys likely ranked around 75 nationally and a guy who was a somewhat controversial first round pick.
I think it's fair to say Romero's stock is up but none of those guys are close to being impact major leaguers.
In addition over the last several seasons, defensive limitations have been hidden by the shift. Things will be significantly different in 2023 and defensive abilities much more apparent. By all accounts the Sox will score fewer runs. Gonna have to figure out how to allow fewer runs.
I think it's less about the return and more about trading a guy like devers altogether. The situation they find themselves in. Devers is lightyears from Betts in terms of talent, and the situation is not the same, although similar in regards to low extension offers acting as precursors to the alienation star homegrown talent on their way out of town.
The risk in trading away known star quantities is obvious. The best case, high ceiling outcomes for most of these guys is not going to be obtained. The floor is unlikely, even. And given the swing and miss on the Betts haul (again, not the same situation as Price's contract was such a negative asset) amongst other moves, it's reasonable to ask if this front office is in a position to discern between highly ranked prospects and prospects that are likely to be key ML-level contributors.
But I may have misread the initial post.
The real decision tree on trading Devers is something like this:
1. The on and off the field consequences to the 2023 season. If you think Devers is a draw and makes a difference in say the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs you probably keep him;
2. If you think trading Devers makes the team better in 2023 and beyond you do that. Imagine they flip Devers for Ohtani. Not happening but some scenario like this and you trade him;
2a. You think his value increases if you move him at the deadline you hold until the deadline;
3. If neither (1) nor (2) are likely or possible than you weigh the return against the compensation received from a qualifying offer. The acquiring team has to make their package more appealing than a compensatory pick;
3a. If you think he is the guy to build your next run around you open up the vaults now and offer him something like Judge got say 10/380. And you let that known publicly so if he walks no one says they didn't try.
I think this covers it. My guess is they keep him this season, consider deadline offers, and probably make a Judge like offer in the offseason. The Sox have to spend money on someone. It may as well be Devers.
I have to think Devers would like a trade because his numbers are going to be down this year as the only bat in the lineup. Going to see a lot of intentional walks
if they offer 380 mil to a 3B who has never finished oi the top 10 of MVP with a career high OBP of .361 and will likely have to move down the defensive spectrum in his 30s, that will be worse than every Bloom misstep put together. They didn't take all the heat from Mookie and Xander to just turn around and do that.
Devers is good, He's very good. He's not that good. Regardless of what may or may not have been possible in the past as far as an extension goes. you should be prepared to see him in a another uniform come 2024.
The Sox really need to sign Jose Iglesias. He's a good shortstop and is passable offensively.
I'd also like to see a Turner signing just in case the team can't extend Devers and needs to trade him.
Of course, the way this offseason is going we're probably going to focus on Swanson instead and he will end up signing elsewhere on the very day that Iglesias re-signs with the Rockies. Devers will then declare that he is cutting off negotiations with the Sox until next off-season and Bloom will -inexplicably - fail to trade him. They then won't pursue him in free agency next year, before he eventually signs a $400 million dollar contract with the Yankees
I'd also like to see a Turner signing just in case the team can't extend Devers and needs to trade him.
Of course, the way this offseason is going we're probably going to focus on Swanson instead and he will end up signing elsewhere on the very day that Iglesias re-signs with the Rockies. Devers will then declare that he is cutting off negotiations with the Sox until next off-season and Bloom will -inexplicably - fail to trade him. They then won't pursue him in free agency next year, before he eventually signs a $400 million dollar contract with the Yankees
Swanson signed with the CubsThe Sox really need to sign Jose Iglesias. He's a good shortstop and is passable offensively.
I'd also like to see a Turner signing just in case the team can't extend Devers and needs to trade him.
Of course, the way this offseason is going we're probably going to focus on Swanson instead and he will end up signing elsewhere on the very day that Iglesias re-signs with the Rockies. Devers will then declare that he is cutting off negotiations with the Sox until next off-season and Bloom will -inexplicably - fail to trade him. They then won't pursue him in free agency next year, before he eventually signs a $400 million dollar contract with the Yankees
Oh, okay. Time to sign Iglesias ASAP. Wouldn’t mind signing Adrelton Simmons for a bench role as well. Couldn’t hit at all last year but he was still probably the best defensive SS in baseball.
