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Norm loves Vera

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I found this interesting chart of all of the MLB teams future $ obligations looking forward to 2024.  It blew my mind to realize the Dodgers and the Marlins have a $162 million dollar difference for 2016 already... and I was a little surprised the Red Sox had 10 other teams ahead of them in $ for 2016.

 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
 

jimbobim

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gammoseditor said:
 
Leake is a FA at the end of the year. That would be a pretty awful return for Heyward. I love Heyward but I think the price is going to be a lot higher than most here. I'd start with the Adrian Gonzalez comp for the package, then increase it because Heyward is younger and plays a premium position. I think you're looking at something like Eduardo Rodriguez, Manny Margot, and Garin Cecchini. And that's optimistic to think you could keep Mookie/Xander/Swihart. They love their young catcher so Swihart probably wouldn't be a target, but we could easily be outbid too. Lots of teams would love to pick up Heyward.
 
The only way the Braves get that kind of value in my opinion is if the team acquiring him gets to sign him via a negotiating window before he hits FA. All those players have one year remaining on their deals. Players with one year control are difficult to value in general. 
 

Hendu for Kutch

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MakMan44 said:
Ben chose Cespedes because he wanted to retool the offense. If he wanted prospects, he could have had prospects. 
 
That's irrelevant to the point I was responding to, that getting Cespedes cost nothing.  I'm aware he picked Cespedes over the prospects, but Cespedes was not some freebie he got without giving something else up.
 

glennhoffmania

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MakMan44 said:
 
 
The chances of him hitting FA are pretty high, IMO. If he wanted an extension, he likely would have gotten one when the Braves went all extension happy a couple seasons ago.
 
 
 
I read something a while back (and I can't find it again) that said Atlanta may have concerns about Heyward going forward and that's why he wasn't offered an extension when they handed them out to pretty much everyone else.
 

Puffy

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gammoseditor

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glennhoffmania said:
 
I read something a while back (and I can't find it again) that said Atlanta may have concerns about Heyward going forward and that's why he wasn't offered an extension when they handed them out to pretty much everyone else.
 
They fired Frank Wren and John Hart is running the team now.  They probably still don't have the money to keep Heyward, but their internal valuation is probably completely different than it was a year ago.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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There's no way the Mariners give up 5 or 6 controllable years of Paxton or Walker for 1 year of Cespedes.
 
I'm definitely not in love with Sandoval both form a talent standpoint and the likely contract he'll have to sign. Count me amongst those that is willing to part with top prospects in a deal for Donaldson and Samardzija.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Puffy said:
 
 
In an article entitled "5 blockbuster trades that make sense," this one doesn't really make sense to me. I don't think the Mariners are that foolish.
 
 
glennhoffmania said:
Yeah if by interesting Pozo meant insane then I'd agree.
Everything I read at the trade deadline this year said the Mariners had tired of Walker and would be happy to trade him.  It might not be as crazy as we think, even if Walker's potential with worth FAR more than one year of Cespedes.
 

Drek717

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HangingW/ScottCooper said:
There's no way the Mariners give up 5 or 6 controllable years of Paxton or Walker for 1 year of Cespedes.
 
I'm definitely not in love with Sandoval both form a talent standpoint and the likely contract he'll have to sign. Count me amongst those that is willing to part with top prospects in a deal for Donaldson and Samardzija.
Except Billy Beane specifically said that Donaldson is not available, period.
 

Drek717

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gammoseditor said:
 
Leake is a FA at the end of the year. That would be a pretty awful return for Heyward. I love Heyward but I think the price is going to be a lot higher than most here. I'd start with the Adrian Gonzalez comp for the package, then increase it because Heyward is younger and plays a premium position. I think you're looking at something like Eduardo Rodriguez, Manny Margot, and Garin Cecchini. And that's optimistic to think you could keep Mookie/Xander/Swihart. They love their young catcher so Swihart probably wouldn't be a target, but we could easily be outbid too. Lots of teams would love to pick up Heyward.
How the hell is Heyward comparable to Adrian Gonzalez?
 
Gonzalez OPS+ prior to coming to Boston (most recent to least): 152, 162, 140, 126, 127
 
Heyward OPS+ up to this point: 108, 114, 117, 93, 131
 
Heyward is more comparable to Yoenis Cespedes (110, 103, 139, FYI) than Gonzalez, who was one of the best hitters in all of baseball at the time of the trade.
 

E5 Yaz

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The one thing that adds to Heyward's value is that he plays exceptional defense at a premium position for Fenway. While his offensive numbers aren't those of Gonzalez, what he adds on defense closes the gap in potential value to the Red Sox. (Yes, Gonzalez is a quality first baseman; but that's arguably not as valuable as a quality right fielder ... especially for Boston.)
 

gammoseditor

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Drek717 said:
How the hell is Heyward comparable to Adrian Gonzalez?
 
Gonzalez OPS+ prior to coming to Boston (most recent to least): 152, 162, 140, 126, 127
 
Heyward OPS+ up to this point: 108, 114, 117, 93, 131
 
Heyward is more comparable to Yoenis Cespedes (110, 103, 139, FYI) than Gonzalez, who was one of the best hitters in all of baseball at the time of the trade.
 
In terms of overall value?  Defense counts.  Heyward plays RF and is by all account gold glover caliber there.  He's also 4 years younger than Gonzalez when he was traded. 
 

benhogan

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gammoseditor said:
 
Leake is a FA at the end of the year. That would be a pretty awful return for Heyward. I love Heyward but I think the price is going to be a lot higher than most here. I'd start with the Adrian Gonzalez comp for the package, then increase it because Heyward is younger and plays a premium position. I think you're looking at something like Eduardo Rodriguez, Manny Margot, and Garin Cecchini. And that's optimistic to think you could keep Mookie/Xander/Swihart. They love their young catcher so Swihart probably wouldn't be a target, but we could easily be outbid too. Lots of teams would love to pick up Heyward.
1 year of Heyward is no way worth EdRodriquez, Margot and Cecchini. Not even close.
 
You need to change that bolded part to "my price for Heyward is higher then everyone on this board"
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Even if the M's are tired of Walker (he hasn't exactly been up that long to wear out his welcome, but whatever), they can certainly get back more than one year of a good-not-great corner OF.  (Plus, I thought Cespedes didn't want to move to RF?  Anyway...) The Sox would do that trade yesterday if it were actually available. 
 
As for the chart above, it is a nice picture of where the teams are heading.  I would help to know how many players each salary amount includes.  Also, two observations:
1.  The chart is ordered by total outstanding commitments.  The Sox actually appear to trail 18 teams in 2016 salary commitments.
2.  The MFY have a ton coming off the books after 2015.  They still have the second most dollars committed at that point, but they drop from a tie with LA at $170M to "just" $99M by 2017.  Even if they exercise restraint this offseason, they're not going to be settling for seconds for long.
 

grimshaw

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E5 Yaz said:
The one thing that adds to Heyward's value is that he plays exceptional defense at a premium position for Fenway. While his offensive numbers aren't those of Gonzalez, what he adds on defense closes the gap in potential value to the Red Sox. (Yes, Gonzalez is a quality first baseman; but that's arguably not as valuable as a quality right fielder ... especially for Boston.)
Exactly.  He's more of a healthy Victorino.  Nothing eye popping offensively, but he was one of the MVPs of that World Series winner.
The Braves beef with Heyward is that he didn't hit for enough power and took too many pitches.  Sound familiar for a former RF in Boston?
Fredi Gonzalez is kind of an idiot.
 
The OF is mismatched.  They have Cespedes (won't play RF, will not re-sign, and would not work with a hitting  coach last season), Victorino (no clue what he has left), Rusney Castillo (Do we know what we have here either?), Allen Craig (Do we know what we have here either?).  They really need stability.
 

Laser Show

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benhogan said:
1 year of Heyward is no way worth EdRodriquez, Margot and Cecchini. Not even close.
 
You need to change that bolded part to "my price for Heyward is higher then everyone on this board"
Yea I was also scratching my head at that offer. I went the other way though - if the Sox want the trade to be contingent upon an extension then there's no way the Braves start any lower than Betts or Swihart
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Laser Show said:
Yea I was also scratching my head at that offer. I went the other way though - if the Sox want the trade to be contingent upon an extension then there's no way the Braves start any lower than Betts or Swihart
 
And that's when the Sox walk away - I wouldn't (and I don't think the Sox would either)  trade either one even up for Heyward - regardless of an opportunity of an extension.
 

Laser Show

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
 
And that's when the Sox walk away - I wouldn't (and I don't think the Sox would either)  trade either one even up for Heyward - regardless of an opportunity of an extension.
Agreed completely. I think Betts is untouchable and Swihart is close.
 

grimshaw

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The Braves are looking for young pitching anyhow.  They've floated Gattis, the Uptons and Heyward in trade talks.  That's where there is a potential match.  If they want quantity we're in luck.
 
Not sure I'd do Owens though.
 

Drek717

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gammoseditor said:
 
In terms of overall value?  Defense counts.  Heyward plays RF and is by all account gold glover caliber there.  He's also 4 years younger than Gonzalez when he was traded. 
1. He plays corner OF very well, sure, but Gonzalez was a gold glove 1B.  Positional value between the two isn't that big.
2. The love for defensive metrics on this site is trending into full blown absurdity if we're suggesting that it bridges ~40 points of OPS+.  That is a gap oceans wide.
3. He's so damn good the Braves gave extensions to every other good young player but him, and are now looking to trade him while still being a competitor.  Gonzalez got traded by a team who knew they couldn't afford to extend him, Heyward is being shopped by a team that simply doesn't want to.
4. Gonzalez also brought back the #31 prospect (Kelly) and the #47 prospect (Rizzo) in baseball per Baseball America.  If Betts was still eligible he'd now likely land firmly in the top 10.  Bogaerts has only just exited that tier.  Swihart will either join it or land just outside it, well above Kelly and Rizzo when traded.
 
This is just my personal opinion, but after seeing all the continued fapping over Bradley's D despite his pitiful offensive display this year, discourse on how to supplant Bogaerts with Marrero at SS, arguments that Headley is the real value at 3B this off-season when he's a top Yankees target and conversely WILL get a healthy contract, and now Jason Heyward being some sort of all-world player it seems to me like SoSH has full blown jumped the damn shark when it comes to defensive metrics.  This isn't OBP, it's a tool you only get to use when two other players (the pitcher and hitter) put you in position to do so, and then it relies heavily on random variables and surrounding teammates.  The metrics require massive samples and still show inconsistencies.
 
Hell, I'd argue the #1 problem of the 2014 Red Sox was the front office getting high on their own supply when it comes to defensive metrics and thinking a team with guaranteed good defenders who may or may not hit would result in a winning team.  Instead we saw a top tier offensive team plummet to the bottom of the league.  Good defenders are nice but it isn't nearly as important as good pitching or hitting.
 

chrisfont9

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Puffy said:
 
 
In an article entitled "5 blockbuster trades that make sense," this one doesn't really make sense to me. I don't think the Mariners are that foolish.
[snip]
 
Re: the idea that the Mariners are tired of Walker, I live out here and follow the Ms media, and I have never ever heard that suggestion in relation to a trade. I think they want him to grow up, and there were a few tense moments where they felt like his approach wasn't up to snuff, but never EVER has there been any suggestion that they've given up. He's pretty close to untouchable.
 

E5 Yaz

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FWIW, Keith Law in his chat today answered a question about Heyward from a StL fan by saying one of the Cards' top young pitchers (Wacha, Martinez, Miller) should be enough to get an unsigned Heyward. The Red Sox young pitchers don't match those three, , but it might not take a Betts or Swihart to pry him loose for one assured season
 

E5 Yaz

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Drek717 said:
1. He plays corner OF very well, sure, but Gonzalez was a gold glove 1B.  Positional value between the two isn't that big.
 
In Fenway? I would disagree with that statement
 

LahoudOrBillyC

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grimshaw said:
The Braves are looking for young pitching anyhow.  They've floated Gattis, the Uptons and Heyward in trade talks.  That's where there is a potential match.  If they want quantity we're in luck.
 
Not sure I'd do Owens though.
 
Why would the Red Sox be interested in trading starting pitching for outfielders? 
 

Drek717

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grimshaw said:
The Braves are looking for young pitching anyhow.  They've floated Gattis, the Uptons and Heyward in trade talks.  That's where there is a potential match.
Not sure I'd do Owens though.
I'd do one of the borderline ML ready guys who got cups of coffee last year (Ruby, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Escobar) and one low minors flier not named Devers, Margot, or Ball.  So something like Ranaudo + Rijo.  And that would be contingent on having a home for Cespedes already set up or executed.
 
I think we also need to be realistic about what Heyward is.  He isn't a 26 year old still learning the game.  He's been playing high level competitive baseball since he was a pre-teen.  He's likely spent more time learning how to play baseball than he's spent reading (and I don't mean learning how to read, I mean the sum total of time spent reading the written word is likely eclipsed by the amount of time he's dedicated to learning how to play baseball).  That has to massively impact a player's age curve, namely in that they peak sooner.  It is highly likely what we've seen so far is Heyward's peak and he's going to spend the next 10 years being a rich man's Shane Victorino.  Good player, not the guy you sell the farm for.
 

gammoseditor

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Drek717 said:
1. He plays corner OF very well, sure, but Gonzalez was a gold glove 1B.  Positional value between the two isn't that big.
2. The love for defensive metrics on this site is trending into full blown absurdity if we're suggesting that it bridges ~40 points of OPS+.  That is a gap oceans wide.
3. He's so damn good the Braves gave extensions to every other good young player but him, and are now looking to trade him while still being a competitor.  Gonzalez got traded by a team who knew they couldn't afford to extend him, Heyward is being shopped by a team that simply doesn't want to.
4. Gonzalez also brought back the #31 prospect (Kelly) and the #47 prospect (Rizzo) in baseball per Baseball America.  If Betts was still eligible he'd now likely land firmly in the top 10.  Bogaerts has only just exited that tier.  Swihart will either join it or land just outside it, well above Kelly and Rizzo when traded.
 
This is just my personal opinion, but after seeing all the continued fapping over Bradley's D despite his pitiful offensive display this year, discourse on how to supplant Bogaerts with Marrero at SS, arguments that Headley is the real value at 3B this off-season when he's a top Yankees target and conversely WILL get a healthy contract, and now Jason Heyward being some sort of all-world player it seems to me like SoSH has full blown jumped the damn shark when it comes to defensive metrics.  This isn't OBP, it's a tool you only get to use when two other players (the pitcher and hitter) put you in position to do so, and then it relies heavily on random variables and surrounding teammates.  The metrics require massive samples and still show inconsistencies.
 
Hell, I'd argue the #1 problem of the 2014 Red Sox was the front office getting high on their own supply when it comes to defensive metrics and thinking a team with guaranteed good defenders who may or may not hit would result in a winning team.  Instead we saw a top tier offensive team plummet to the bottom of the league.  Good defenders are nice but it isn't nearly as important as good pitching or hitting.
 
1. Disagree.  And while Gonzalez was a good defender at 1B, he wasn't in Heyward class for RF. 
2. I always find this argument funny.  It's always used against good defenders.  What it sounds like to me is arguing that no one has any idea how much defense is worth.  The conclusion that is always drawn is that good defenders are overated.  Again, to me it sounds like you're saying we have no idea how valuable anyone is.  If we can't be confident in defensive metrics, that's all you're really saying. 
3. The extensions the Braves gave were for less money than Heyward would command.  They also fired the GM that didn't extend him.
4. I don't think we should or would trade mookie/swihart/xander, but I do think to make sure we had the highest offer one of them would have to be included.  I also think we're a terrible fit.  We dont' need an OF this year, and because he's so good and the price would be so high, it's a terrible fit.  
 

grimshaw

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LahoudOrBillyC said:
 
Why would the Red Sox be interested in trading starting pitching for outfielders? 
Because they don't have any OF resembling all-stars who are going to be here for the next few years.  Nor are there any ripe in the pipeline.
They can throw money at pitching and/or still acquire via trade.
 

grimshaw

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Drek717 said:
I'd do one of the borderline ML ready guys who got cups of coffee last year (Ruby, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Escobar) and one low minors flier not named Devers, Margot, or Ball.  So something like Ranaudo + Rijo.  And that would be contingent on having a home for Cespedes already set up or executed.
 
I think we also need to be realistic about what Heyward is.  He isn't a 26 year old still learning the game.  He's been playing high level competitive baseball since he was a pre-teen.  He's likely spent more time learning how to play baseball than he's spent reading (and I don't mean learning how to read, I mean the sum total of time spent reading the written word is likely eclipsed by the amount of time he's dedicated to learning how to play baseball).  That has to massively impact a player's age curve, namely in that they peak sooner.  It is highly likely what we've seen so far is Heyward's peak and he's going to spend the next 10 years being a rich man's Shane Victorino.  Good player, not the guy you sell the farm for.
I don't think he's a sell the farm for guy either, and the estimates people are talking about to get him are silly.  Betts and Swihart are who you move for an ace or a stud.  I'd go Barnes and Coyle (blocked if/when they sign a FA) or something like that.   The other cup of coffee guys probably aren't fetching a ton.
 

ehaz

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Puffy said:
 
 
In an article entitled "5 blockbuster trades that make sense," this one doesn't really make sense to me. I don't think the Mariners are that foolish.
 
No way do the Mariners make that deal but I'm a fan of attempting to deal for Walker or Paxton.  Unlike someone who's a rental like Cueto/Latos/Zimmerman, Walker or Paxton allows you to get a pitcher with some serious front of the rotation upside and control years.  The Mariners could part with one of them and do need outfield help.  I couldn't give them Betts but is there enough you can add to Cespedes to make the deal happen?  Maybe Cespedes + Cecchini or one of the AAAA arms + Devers/Margot?
 

Drek717

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Heyward is one month older than....Anthony Ranaudo.
 
And your point being?
 
 
 

I don't think such an offer is even close to legitimate.
That would work for me as the only reason I'd have any inclination to pursue him and move Cespedes is for handedness.  I don't see the rationale behind paying a bunch to change the handedness of one OF starter, especially when we'd be trading a guy with no consistent split issue for a guy with a persistent and significant platoon split.
 

Plympton91

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Drek717 said:
1. He plays corner OF very well, sure, but Gonzalez was a gold glove 1B.  Positional value between the two isn't that big.
2. The love for defensive metrics on this site is trending into full blown absurdity if we're suggesting that it bridges ~40 points of OPS+.  That is a gap oceans wide.
3. He's so damn good the Braves gave extensions to every other good young player but him, and are now looking to trade him while still being a competitor.  Gonzalez got traded by a team who knew they couldn't afford to extend him, Heyward is being shopped by a team that simply doesn't want to.
4. Gonzalez also brought back the #31 prospect (Kelly) and the #47 prospect (Rizzo) in baseball per Baseball America.  If Betts was still eligible he'd now likely land firmly in the top 10.  Bogaerts has only just exited that tier.  Swihart will either join it or land just outside it, well above Kelly and Rizzo when traded.
 
This is just my personal opinion, but after seeing all the continued fapping over Bradley's D despite his pitiful offensive display this year, discourse on how to supplant Bogaerts with Marrero at SS, arguments that Headley is the real value at 3B this off-season when he's a top Yankees target and conversely WILL get a healthy contract, and now Jason Heyward being some sort of all-world player it seems to me like SoSH has full blown jumped the damn shark when it comes to defensive metrics.  This isn't OBP, it's a tool you only get to use when two other players (the pitcher and hitter) put you in position to do so, and then it relies heavily on random variables and surrounding teammates.  The metrics require massive samples and still show inconsistencies.
 
Hell, I'd argue the #1 problem of the 2014 Red Sox was the front office getting high on their own supply when it comes to defensive metrics and thinking a team with guaranteed good defenders who may or may not hit would result in a winning team.  Instead we saw a top tier offensive team plummet to the bottom of the league.  Good defenders are nice but it isn't nearly as important as good pitching or hitting.
How do you insert that black and white picture of the guy clapping? Bravo!
 

grimshaw

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^ He did look good, but a lot of call ups look good in September.  I'm just saying we don't really know what he''ll be yet.
 
As forTravis, I don't get the hate either.  Good .obp, decent power, low k rate (60 in 400) ab's.  Close to a 10% walk rate which is acceptable and he was 23 in AA.  Good SB rate as well.  Looks like a Mark Ellis/Loretta type.
 
He moved off of 2B for CF and then the corners but is a 2B.  Maybe he has 'tude or is a butcher in the field.
 

chrisfont9

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ehaz said:
 
No way do the Mariners make that deal but I'm a fan of attempting to deal for Walker or Paxton.  Unlike someone who's a rental like Cueto/Latos/Zimmerman, Walker or Paxton allows you to get a pitcher with some serious front of the rotation upside and control years.  The Mariners could part with one of them and do need outfield help.  I couldn't give them Betts but is there enough you can add to Cespedes to make the deal happen?  Maybe Cespedes + Cecchini or one of the AAAA arms + Devers/Margot?
I think they'd consider something along the lines of Cespedes + Owens + another lottery ticket, but nothing less. The problem in any such deal is that the Mariners are in win-now mode and Walker is being counted on for the rotation for next year. So trading him for Cespedes closes one immediate hole while opening up another. Also, public perception would be really bad, people here are counting on Walker to be the next big thing, and Paxton is already a rotation mainstay. With Cespedes a one-year guy, I think they'd insist on a Mookie-Owens-Swihart level prospect to come too. So I don't see a matchup for Walker.
 
I've said a few times elsewhere that Cespedes to Seattle makes sense, but there might need to be a third team involved in order for the Sox to get back what they need. 
 

KillerBs

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The more I read about Devers and Margot, the less I want to deal them, especially Devers, and especially not for another pitching prospect.
 
As for the Owens for Taijuan Walker suggestion, I am having tough time favoring one much over the other. I would hope that Cespedes was worth more than the difference between the two. 
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I agree Cespedes is a fit for Seattle, but I think the only way it happens is via a three-way deal, perhaps also involving Michael Saunders and/or Brad Miller (in the "Seattle signs Hanley" scenario). Nationals, maybe, or the Mets? Or an intra-divisional 3-way trade involving both Seattle and Oakland? 
 

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Danny_Darwin said:
I agree Cespedes is a fit for Seattle, but I think the only way it happens is via a three-way deal, perhaps also involving Michael Saunders and/or Brad Miller (in the "Seattle signs Hanley" scenario). Nationals, maybe, or the Mets? Or an intra-divisional 3-way trade involving both Seattle and Oakland? 
If Brad Miller or Saunders is the best Boston can get for Cespedes then I surely wouldn't deal him. The team will either get a high impact player for him or not move him at all.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Tyrone Biggums said:
If Brad Miller or Saunders is the best Boston can get for Cespedes then I surely wouldn't deal him. The team will either get a high impact player for him or not move him at all.
 
I guess I thought I made it clear by saying it would need to be a "three-way deal" that the Seattle players would be going elsewhere.
 

ehaz

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KillerBs said:
The more I read about Devers and Margot, the less I want to deal them, especially Devers, and especially not for another pitching prospect.
 
As for the Owens for Taijuan Walker suggestion, I am having tough time favoring one much over the other. I would hope that Cespedes was worth more than the difference between the two. 
 
You can't be serious right?  Walker might be an ace, like tomorrow.  He's been universally rated as a top 10 prospect for the last two seasons and so far in the Majors he's lived up to it.  For all we know, Henry Owens is a #4 and Devers can't hit a slider once he moves to AA.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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MakMan44 said:
Would Niese be a good target in that deal?
The guy whose availability I've been wondering about lately is Doug Fister. Also a free-agent-to-be; why would the Nats consider deals for Zimmermann and not him?
 

soxhop411

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RedOctober3829 said:
On WEEI right now, Bradford doesn't think Lester is going to sign with Boston because there is too much competition. Says the price will be way too high.
Doesn't think as in a personal belief or sources believe?. Because if it's sources that's completely different than what has been reported this whole week
 

MakMan44

stole corsi's dream
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2009
19,363
Danny_Darwin said:
The guy whose availability I've been wondering about lately is Doug Fister. Also a free-agent-to-be; why would the Nats consider deals for Zimmermann and not him?
I like that too. I think they want resign Fister, and that might him harder to pry away but between Fister's prior AL experience and Niese's previous shoulder troubles that's a better suggestion.
 
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