He had 23 2/3 innings as a reliever, with a K/9 of 5.3 in mopup duty. I wouldn't call that a "year".Is this one good year 2013 or 2016?
He had 23 2/3 innings as a reliever, with a K/9 of 5.3 in mopup duty. I wouldn't call that a "year".Is this one good year 2013 or 2016?
I dunno... think about what it takes to lose that much weight. A great deal of hard work. It didn't just accidentally fall off of him. We were fooled before, so there's that, but that kind of dramatic weight control, I mean, why would he stop now? We'll see what he's really about next spring, but I like the suggestion that he is motivated to change things.I swear we saw that picture last December too.
Travis Shaw is the definition of replaceable and there are lots of bats available in FA that are better. I don't like that they included Dubon because I think he made a real breakthrough last year, but if they concluded the added power is just a mirage, Dubon is really nothing more than a Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez type. Even if the guy ends up sucking, it's not like they gave up a ton of value.Wow. One good year in the NL with a noncontender and already 28. Yikes. Seems like competition for the 10th or 11th spots with Heath Hembree more than anything else.
I guess they've determined Travis Shaw is who he was in the second half of 2016. If Shaw bounces back at all, this is a huge overpay. And giving up Dubon as well? That's insanity.
And he's already halfway to TJ surgery apparently, with the PRP injection two years ago.
How many times are the Red Sox going to get hosed bringing in middle reliveres from the NL Central before they realize that the NL is really a AAAA league?
This has disaster written all over it. Dombrowski's questionable history of building bullpens doesn't inspire confidence.
+1 to Koji, I'm sure he'd be cheap, he seems well liked, and we all know he can do the job when healthy. But we got a puppy after the 2013 Series and you can guess his name. So I'm biased.Is Carson Smith on schedule to be ready for spring training? Or more like June?
Even with this acquisition, the bullpen is still a little bit light. I hope they re-sign Koji. Even if he's only good for 30 innings I think there's still a lot of value there.
I hope he is, since his stuff is really good in small doses. I've been banging this drum for aeons.This is the key. There's a pretty good chance they have 2 of the 3 down the stretch. I'd guess Kimbrell and Smith if I had to bet on a pair, but if they get lucky, then yes this is a very nice back end of the pen. Joe Kelly is probably also in that mix.
Was he moved to the bullpen due to injury concerns? Seems weird to move a guy to the bullpen who had 10 career starts and a 2.37 era in 57 ip. His results were better than his performance but his performance wasn't exactly terrible on paper.He had 23 2/3 innings as a reliever, with a K/9 of 5.3 in mopup duty. I wouldn't call that a "year".
Possibly. He did get shelved with a partially torn UCL in 2014. They tried him in the rotation again in AAA in 2015, and it didn't really stick, and he's been in the bullpen since. I hope he can keep it up as well, but he really only has the one year track record (which is still very promising).Was he moved to the bullpen due to injury concerns? Seems weird to move a guy to the bullpen who had 10 career starts and a 2.37 era in 57 ip. His results were better than his performance but his performance wasn't exactly terrible on paper.
That backup depth might be Hernandez, Holt, and, when he's ready, Moncada.Do the Sox look outside organization for a 3B? Gotta be the right price with Panda likely back in the mix. Maybe FA Trevor Plouffe? Low OBP, but perhaps someone serviceable for a year at a reasonable price.
I hope Panda retakes the job based upon good health and good play, but might make sense to have backup just in case.
Why are you ignoring his 7 starts from that "year"?He had 23 2/3 innings as a reliever, with a K/9 of 5.3 in mopup duty. I wouldn't call that a "year".
I wonder if they've considered giving Sam Travis any time at 3b. He's not exactly the most athletic guy though. Add in the fact he is recovering from an injury and I doubt they'd burden him with learning a new position on top of that, one he probably isn't suited to play anyway. Plus he has no long term role at 3b.That backup depth might be Hernandez, Holt, and, when he's ready, Moncada.
Yep. The only thing that worries me about this deal is Thornburg's elbow and that he could become this year's Carson Smith.This is like trading two dimes and a penny for a quarter. When you need a quarter.
The same reason we ignore Joe Kelly's 2016 starts when projecting him as a reliever in 2017. Prior to 2016 though, Tyler's career numbers: 152.2ip 3.18 era, 130k/66bb, 17HRA on 132 hits with a fip of 4.27. It isn't like he was trash.Why are you ignoring his 7 starts from that "year"?
Either way, Panda has some real nasty platoon splits.Do the Sox look outside organization for a 3B? Gotta be the right price with Panda likely back in the mix. Maybe FA Trevor Plouffe? Low OBP, but perhaps someone serviceable for a year at a reasonable price.
I hope Panda retakes the job based upon good health and good play, but might make sense to have backup just in case.
hey, they both have PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE.Replacing Will Middlebrooks at 3B with Travis Shaw is why the Brewers are the Brewers.
You know who else had "one good year" and was already 28 ... Jacoby Ellsbury.Wow. One good year and already 28.
Yeah, if this means they're truly out on Jansen, and Koji is cheap, I'd be happy to have him back to bridge to Smith.Is Carson Smith on schedule to be ready for spring training? Or more like June?
Even with this acquisition, the bullpen is still a little bit light. I hope they re-sign Koji. Even if he's only good for 30 innings I think there's still a lot of value there.
They released Chris Carter so Shaw is probably going to be playing a good deal of his games at 1b too. Not really sure what the Brewers are doing here, they must really like Dubon.Replacing Will Middlebrooks at 3B with Travis Shaw is why the Brewers are the Brewers.
2016 RS:hey, they both have PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE.
The underrated part of this trade is the roster-spot optionality. If healthy, Thornburg is a top piece in the bullpen (yes, there's a NL Central -> AL East transition factor, but it's not that big). If injured, he is not taking up a spot and we can put someone else in there. That is far better than consistently-healthy mediocrity.
I doubt losing Dubon in this trade has anything much to do with extending Bogaerts. I don't think it's clear that Dubon was being looked at as the "next one".Yeah, if this means they're truly out on Jansen, and Koji is cheap, I'd be happy to have him back to bridge to Smith.
I wonder where Taz ends up?
Also, losing Dubon means we really have to extend Bogaerts, right?
Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/3725/acquire-thornburg-shaw-dubon-pennington?page=1#ixzz4S5AStf5VQuote
Post by thursty on 2 hours ago
Why not just throw in Betts as well?
The superannuated Dombrowski needs to go; it's sickening
What were the average number of runs scored per team in the International League?2016 RS:
Can we please dispense with the notion that he's moving to a more difficult run scoring environment?
If there were a quality difference between the two leagues (or divisions), do you think it would manifest itself on both sides of the ball, or only on the offensive side of the ball?Can we please dispense with the notion that he's moving to a more difficult run scoring environment?
Scouts are all over the place on his defense. To me, Dubon looks like a 2b who was forced to play SS because Moncada but I have very limited exposure. I don't think he was ever Xander insurance, either. He was a late draft pick that exceeded all expectations and looked to have a career as a UI at some point... and then he went and exceeded even that in AA. It'd be easy to call him this years Guerra, but Dubon actually has a decent track record, doesn't have the huge strike out issues and is also much further along in development. Travis Shaw was the throw in, Dubon is the guy who hurts to lose if he wasn't blocked and we weren't spoiled.From a Fangraphs chat from their prospects guy Longenhagen:
Dubon: Interesting and one of the tougher evals of the year for me. Athletic actions, looks the part at short but makes fundamental mistakes. Has good feel for contact, contact in Fall League was louder than I anticipated given the body but still of the low-lying line drive variety. If the body comes along he could be quite good, if not he may be outclassed, physically, in the bigs. I've talked to guys here in DC who think he's an average everyday player and others that think he's a 40.
Pennington is a reliever all the way, might be a set-up type.
It's often said the the pitcher hitting doesn't affect high leverage relievers as much because they're facing pinch hitters, but, for 2015, the latest data I can find, NL pinch hitters put up a combined line of .220Clearly those DHs have negligible impact in the AL, and we should all fear the Cal League hitters and IL pitchers, right?
Edit: To leave the snark behind, my point of course is that if we were to see a major difference in run-scoring environment, it would mean somehow that the AL East was cornering the market on hitters while neglecting their pitchers, and the NL Central was getting all the good pitchers / defenders while neglecting their hitters. Ludicrous, right? If there IS a difference in talent, we surely wouldn't see it in differences between RS/G, even accounting for the Pitcher -> DH transition.
The way to see it is in measuring the relative performance of players who move between different environments. Much like the scientific method says you can't just say correlation = causation, you have to control for a single experimental variable - in this case, league switches for players. P91's reaction, and mine, is based on anecdotal cases of players doing that the last 15 years or so, plus the AL's long win streak in interleague play (currently standing at 13 straight seasons). I would certainly yield to data from a larger study looking at players who transitioned between leagues or divisions, but I haven't seen one.
If you are going to assert that the AL East is a significantly more difficult place to pitch than the NL Central, right now, at this very moment, you need to provide evidence to back it up. Deflecting away the fact that the NL Central sans the team Thornton pitched for was a higher run scoring environment than the AL East sans the team Thornton will be pitching for.If there were a quality difference between the two leagues (or divisions), do you think it would manifest itself on both sides of the ball, or only on the offensive side of the ball?
Let me give you some more food for thought on that question. Runs Scored per game in 2016:
South Atlantic League (A): 4.20
California League (A+): 5.01
Eastern League (AA): 4.34
Texas League (AA): 4.12
International League (AAA): 3.96
Pacific Coast League (AAA): 4.78
National League (ML, pitcher bats): 4.44
American League (ML, DH): 4.52
Clearly those DHs have negligible impact in the AL, and we should all fear the Cal League hitters and IL pitchers, right?
Edit: To leave the snark behind, my point of course is that if we were to see a major difference in run-scoring environment, it would mean somehow that the AL East was cornering the market on hitters while neglecting their pitchers, and the NL Central was getting all the good pitchers / defenders while neglecting their hitters. Ludicrous, right? If there IS a difference in talent, we surely wouldn't see it in differences between RS/G, even accounting for the Pitcher -> DH transition.
The way to see it is in measuring the relative performance of players who move between different environments. Much like the scientific method says you can't just say correlation = causation, you have to control for a single experimental variable - in this case, league switches for players. P91's reaction, and mine, is based on anecdotal cases of players doing that the last 15 years or so, plus the AL's long win streak in interleague play (currently standing at 13 straight seasons). I would certainly yield to data from a larger study looking at players who transitioned between leagues or divisions, but I haven't seen one.
The whole thing hinges on Shaw. If he's slightly better than replacement level, the deal is a gamble worth making; if he's a 2-win player, it's a disaster even if the prospects fizzle.Wow. One good year in the NL with a noncontender and already 28. Yikes. Seems like competition for the 10th or 11th spots with Heath Hembree more than anything else.
I guess they've determined Travis Shaw is who he was in the second half of 2016. If Shaw bounces back at all, this is a huge overpay. And giving up Dubon as well? That's insanity.
And he's already halfway to TJ surgery apparently, with the PRP injection two years ago.
How many times are the Red Sox going to get hosed bringing in middle reliveres from the NL Central before they realize that the NL is really a AAAA league?
This has disaster written all over it. Dombrowski's questionable history of building bullpens doesn't inspire confidence.
I would guess that if any young prospect might be looked at to learn 3B as a new position, it might be Swihart. He did spend his HS years playing SS and people have always lauded his athleticism, so perhaps that could be in the mix.I wonder if they've considered giving Sam Travis any time at 3b. He's not exactly the most athletic guy though. Add in the fact he is recovering from an injury and I doubt they'd burden him with learning a new position on top of that, one he probably isn't suited to play anyway. Plus he has no long term role at 3b.
I agree, but I started hearing chatter this year that he might become a viable plan B if Bogaerts can't be extended. All eyes on CJ Chatham now I guess; the system's pretty barren at short.I doubt losing Dubon in this trade has anything much to do with extending Bogaerts. I don't think it's clear that Dubon was being looked at as the "next one".
I saw that pic. He looks like a baseball player, instead of a beer league softballer now. Obviously their internal reports were strong enough that they dealt Shaw. Fingers crossed!A buddy on mine is in Ft Myers this week and ran into Panda at the ST complex, posted a pic to his FB page. Panda looks terrific, totally in shape with no evidence of a belly at all. It's actually fairly remarkable.
You made a logic error in arguing RS/G is evidence against there being a quality difference between the leagues. The only assertion I made was that the quality difference was "not that big". I think interleague results for comparing leagues (13 straight years!), plus inter-division records for comparing divisions, is pretty suggestive that the difference is nonzero. You'll have to be satisfied with that, as there are few conclusive proofs to be had anywhere, nevermind in baseball.If you are going to assert that the AL East is a significantly more difficult place to pitch than the NL Central, right now, at this very moment, you need to provide evidence to back it up. Deflecting away the fact that the NL Central sans the team Thornton pitched for was a higher run scoring environment than the AL East sans the team Thornton will be pitching for.
You are making the claim. Back it up.
"Tell me the Red Sox got me!"
Also, I thought "burg" was less likely to be jewish than "berg" is.Tyler? I'm voting no.
No, I didn't. You're just doing mental gymnastics to justify a statement that doesn't have anything but conventional wisdom to back it up... and conventional wisdom from like a decade ago, at that. When you take the Sox out of the AL East and the Brewers out of the NL Central, the NL Central scored 177 more runs. That's a big difference and is far more than enough to dispense with the idea that the AL East is currently appreciably more difficult to pitch in, even if we leave some wiggle room for the impact of the DH and it's trickle down effects.You made a logic error in arguing RS/G is evidence against there being a quality difference between the leagues. The only assertion I made was that the quality difference was "not that big". I think interleague results for comparing leagues (13 straight years!), plus inter-division records for comparing divisions, is pretty suggestive that the difference is nonzero. You'll have to be satisfied with that, as there are few conclusive proofs to be had anywhere, nevermind in baseball.
Burg is just a typo.Also, I thought "burg" was less likely to be jewish than "berg" is.
He went to Charleston Southern University. "Affiliated with the South Carolina Baptist Convention, the university's vision is to be nationally recognized for integrating faith in learning, leading and serving."Burg is just a typo.
Until someone tells me he's not cut I'm assuming he's an MOT
There's a Thornborough in England, in Buckinghamshire. I'd guess his name hails from there.Burg is just a typo.
Until someone tells me he's not cut I'm assuming he's an MOT
That / gave me a sudden flashback to the 1980sHopefully at least one of two Thornburg/Smith is lights out.
He went to Charleston Southern University. "Affiliated with the South Carolina Baptist Convention, the university's vision is to be nationally recognized for integrating faith in learning, leading and serving."
Which doesn't necessarily mean he isn't Jewish, of course, but makes it seem less likely.