I am torn on whether or not to fire McKinzie, who I think is still well thought of in NFL circles. I think he needs another two years, but I wouldn't keep him if his presence was the only thing stopping Harbaugh / Gruden hires. Seeing how those are pipe dreams, I imagine he stays and hires the next coach.
Mitigating factors:
-They had no draft picks and were in a horrible cap situation when Reggie arrived.
-They have no cash on hand and play in a dump.
-The franchise has become the 90's Bengals or 80's Bucs in terms of reputation, so they have to overpay to get good free agents.
-Darren McFadden never came back from his foot injury that occurred in 2011. He is just not the same guy.
The Good:
-Turned the worst cap situation in the NFL into one of the most flexible. The Raiders have ~$60M in cap room next year and can turn that into ~$90 by cutting some of the veterans they signed this year. They will cut Shaub, MJD and potentially one of the DLinemen they signed, so I imagine they will have ~$75M to spend in the offseason. Considering the cap hell where they started, he has done a really great job with this.
-This last draft seems solid with Khalil Mack, Derek Carr, and Gabe Jackson at the top and some interesting depth players at the bottom. His 2013 draft does not look as good, with only LB Sio Moore sticking out as a good player, but the top two picks, Menlick Watson and DJ Hayden have been hurt both seasons, so it is hard to judge at this point.
-Has found keeper UDFA's like WR Rod Streeter and QB Matt McGloin (who makes up for cutting 4th round pick QB Tyler Wilson)
-He has all of his picks going forward, which seems kind of unbelievable for us Raiders fans.
The Bad:
-Firing Hue Jackson was a mistake. Hiring Dennis Allen was a bigger mistake. Not making Allen bring in some older coaches to help him learn just compounded the mistake.
-Trading Carson Palmer has turned out to be a mistake. I understood the trade at the time, when they consolidated their cap woes in 2013 and needed the extra $6M they saved trading Palmer. However, Palmer would have been much better to have around than either Matt Flynn or Matt Shaub, and they spent three picks on those guys and only got two (lower) picks back for Palmer. Further, Palmer would have been a much better mentor for any of Tyrrelle Pryor, McGloin or Derek Carr than Flynn & Shaub trying to extend their careers.
-Letting Jared Veldheer and Lamarr Houston go was a mistake. I know that, per PFF, their older replacements, Donal Penn and Justin Tuck, have outplayed Veldheer and Houston, but you need to re-sign your above average FAs. For all of the extra cap room Reggie gained by signing the older players to non guaranteed deals, he lost time with the youth that he let go.
-He let some of the wrong Al Davis players go for no other reason than that they were Al Davis players. Rams RT Joe Barksdale was a 3rd round pick cut after one year, Mike Mitchell did good things in Carolina, Jack Crawford is playing in Dallas, Matt Shaunessey is a starter on Arizona's offensive line, Louis Murphy has caught on, etc. etc. The Raiders keep recycling the middle and bottom of the roster, but there are several useful players that were jettisoned solely for the offense of being Al Davis guys.
-He has gotten incredibly unlucky with injuries. The only young Al Davis players that McKenzie gave money to were Tyvon Branch and Taiwan Jones, both of whom are now on IR.
-He still hasn't found a QB, despite a ton of trying, though Carr might be the guy.
At the end of the day, he does not deserve to be fired, but I wouldn't keep him around if you could get Chucky back or convince Harbaugh to pull the ultimate "fuck you" move on the 49ers. I think he keeps his job and the Raiders hire former assistant coach David Shaw.
What I think actually happens is that they are probably going to win 1-2 games, cut all of the vets they signed with no long term money this spring and start the next coach over with the #1 pick, a ton of cap room and hopefully a stadium/location solution that could solve the cash problems.
