Sometimes Twitter is actually fun. Niners recently signed practice squad QB:
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/KurtBenkert/status/1583299879605919744
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/KurtBenkert/status/1583299879605919744
Pro-Bowl RB Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49er
- Thread starter Van Everyman
- Start date
"1000-yard rushers" are going the way of "200-inning starting pitchers." Having one is great, but not having one may not be an indication that there's an issue.
I'm not missing the point when you're questioning the potential health of CMC going forward but you're cool with a 31-year-old Mostert. You would be doing cartwheels if the Dolphins got CMC, c'mon now.
Also, CMC was on one of the worst offensive teams in the last decade so the stats that say he's being outperformed by Mostert are perhaps comically irrelevant.
I would absolutely not be doing cartwheels if Miami traded away their entire draft for CMC. I also don’t think Miami has “solved” their running back issue just because Mostert is playing well right now.
The point is running back production is fairly readily available and easy to find, especially if you run a legendary offensive system that put Terrell Davis in the Hall of Fame and sent countless others to the Pro Bowl.
Trading away a haul of picks for a running back, never mind one that has not been healthy in over two years, is probably the dumbest thing you can do from an organizational perspective outside of drafting one in the top 5.
I'm not sure how true this is anymore, or maybe anymore for what Shanahan wants to do. For most teams, who are very pass-first these days, that's true. But Shanahan's system has been opening up gaping holes that his running backs are hitting enough for good productions (see Wilson Jr), but not the home run production which almost won him the super bowl.
Mitchell, Wilson, Coleman (not to mention sermon, TDP, Hasty, Mason, ect.) are not producing -- and haven't for a couple years now -- the huge chunk gains that he wants. Mostert did, but he kept getting injured (which is also my only issue with the trade for CMC).
The reason Deebo was in the backfield all last season is because the RB production wasn't what it should be until he was there. All the sudden they started winning and went to the NFC Championship game. If this move starts producing those huge plays with Deebo still playing WR instead of RB it'll make a huge difference. I've watched a ton of niners and the biggest difference between 2019 and now is Mostert not taking runs 20-30+ yards on a regular basis opening up everything else for the O.
I still also think you're making too big a deal about the draft. It's only 1 draft and they'll still have some 3rd rounders and 5th rounders to pick up the depth guys you need, but the SB worthy core of starters are already in place.
Interesting that you say that especially since the Niners have been drafting pretty well. Filling in the depth on the team is important and the cheapest way to do that is through the draft. The Rams are feeling the effects of that now, and given the Niners team injury history, it could really create problems going with a Rams-esque stars-and-scrubs strategy.
I'll be curious to see if this doesn't work will they clean house and start over? Not likely, but maybe there's some pressure here to win big.
The 3rd round pick might be #65. It will almost 100% be in the 60s.
Edit: 64 actually. Forgot Miami lost their 1st.
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They have the prototypical fungible RB in Jeff Wilson who has more rushing yards than CMC and Mostert. What he doesn't do is catch the ball and the upgrade to a guy who is elite in that skillset seems to have been worth it to what most consider a smart and well-run org.
You seem to not only be questioning the health going forward (completely legit) but whether or not CMC is actually good any longer which is actually silly.
Agreed. I think the thing is they've drafted well and now most of those guys are in their prime and it's a 2 or 3 more year window of GFIN. Warner, Greenlaw, Bosa, Kittle, Deebo, Mosely, Aiyuk, ect. They're all there now and will be for the next couple years. So you give up capital in a single draft and take a swing with a playmaker to go for it in this window.
after that, they'll have to rebuild it again (they hope with Lance, but who knows).
I'm not sure that the Super Bowl Winner Rams team is the best counterpoint to this strategy.
I think that they're nuts, but it's great to see. CMC is exciting when actually on the field.
I love McCaffrey, and the 49ers as a second team, but don't they, the 9ers have a large stable of running backs? Even guys who can catch passes out of the backfield? Maybe nobody with Christian's talent?
I know that Danooome referenced it earlier but, this is another big reason why the Niners could pull the trigger here:
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1583302764406329344
I will stay away from V&N issues here, but if other teams see the draft capital that accumulates and lets you make big moves by bringing in and developing minority coaches.... that can only be a good thing.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1583302764406329344
I will stay away from V&N issues here, but if other teams see the draft capital that accumulates and lets you make big moves by bringing in and developing minority coaches.... that can only be a good thing.
I don’t understand the narrative that CMC is always hurt. He didn’t miss a game his first 3 years and then had a few unrelated injuries the last 2 years.
Running backs get hurt. A lot. Barkley, Cook, Zeke, Mixon, Swift, Ekler…even the supposedly most indestructible modern back, Henry, missed half a season last year. CMC touches the ball a ton. The odds are he would have some years with injury luck on his side and other years he doesn’t. I’m not convinced he’s “injury prone,” whatever that means.
Running backs get hurt. A lot. Barkley, Cook, Zeke, Mixon, Swift, Ekler…even the supposedly most indestructible modern back, Henry, missed half a season last year. CMC touches the ball a ton. The odds are he would have some years with injury luck on his side and other years he doesn’t. I’m not convinced he’s “injury prone,” whatever that means.
How much of the negativity toward the CMC trade here is due to fantasy? Honest question as I have stayed away from him like the plague the last few drafts. But I wonder if KS feels he might be able to manage his workload so he’s fresh come playoff time.
I know I'm beating my own dead horse here, but here's the 49ers expected draft picks in the upcoming draft AFTER the trade:
3rd (Saleh/Mayhew)
3rd (McDaniel)
5th
5th (Jones)
6th (Key)
7th (from Denver)
7th
7th (Mostert)
They won't be getting the next Bosa or anything, but even after the trade they have room to add depth with this draft.
And, if Ryans does get a head coach position this year, add in another 3rd to this mix.
3rd (Saleh/Mayhew)
3rd (McDaniel)
5th
5th (Jones)
6th (Key)
7th (from Denver)
7th
7th (Mostert)
They won't be getting the next Bosa or anything, but even after the trade they have room to add depth with this draft.
And, if Ryans does get a head coach position this year, add in another 3rd to this mix.
Yeah that’s exactly right. I think people view him as “injury prone” because he was the first overall pick in most drafts the two prior years. But if I had the first or second overall pick this year, I would have no problem taking him. I didn’t view him as any riskier to miss games than any other top 2 rounds RB.
Decent understates it somewhat.
I'd say that the picks other than the two thirds hae pretty minimal value for the 49ers, and even third rounders pan out about one in three times.
I did take him with #2 overall this year, but that's got nothing to do with why I love this pickup for SF.
CMC is not just a running back. He is, for all intents and purposes, a RB/WR. In his last two full seasons, he carried the ball 506 times (not a ton), but he also had 223 receptions (which is fucking ludicrous). Jimmy G. loves to check the ball down, they've got Deebo to put in the backfield as a 2 headed monster with CMC, they've got Kittle over the middle, Aiyuk and arguably the best FB in the game in Juszczyk. They are going to be a wagon if they stay healthy, running Kyle's offense.
He's exactly what they need to finalize a run to the SB, IMO. For all the talk about how he's injury prone, he has very, very little mileage on his body after 5+ years in the NFL., with 866 carries and 390 receptions, and everyone knows he's a workout fiend, so he's not a guy you worry about getting out of shape. He was averaging 4.6ypa rushing, and 5.5 receptions per game on the worst offense in football in Carolina. If he does that in SF, he's going for 150 yards from scrimmage every game.
You partly answered your own question, almost all RBs that get significant usage in the NFL become prone to injury, by nature of the work, not necessarily a personal criticism on the player.
McCaffrey had a 400 touch season in 2019, then sprained an ankle in Week 2 of 2020, hurt his shoulder after coming back in Week 9, strained a hamstring in Week 3 2021, then hurt his ankle in Week 12. I'm not sure how "injury prone" he is exactly, but he certainly hasn't been durable the last 2 seasons.
You obviously aren't aware that the 49ers don't draft starters until the 5th round. Current 5th rounders starting for SF:
Rookie Sam Womack (Nickel back) -- this is a stretch because it's only in nickel, but he's a rookie so I'm counting it.
George Kittle (TE)
Dre Greenlaw (LB)
Deomodore Lenoir (CB) -- Starting now with Mosely out for season
Talanoa Hufonga (S)
Jaylon Moore (OT) -- If Williams is back this week he won't start, but still...
I'm joking here as there's a running joke in the niners community that the draft doesn't start until the 5th round.
All that said, I agree that at best you're looking at some young depth with the 3rd rounders. But that's my point, they have enough picks to fill in the depth.
The impact player they're getting out of this year's draft is CMC (and possibly Lance).
Just a quick point that I probably missed, but wouldn't any compensation for Ryans be in the 2024 draft? I was not sure and wanted to see if you knew for sure.
They'd get 2 for a head coach -- 1 this draft, 1 next draft. The reason they're still getting them from Saleh is they had Mayhew also go that year and when you have 2 minority hires in the same offseason, you get 3 picks over the next 3 years.
49er fan here.
Thrilled with this trade, but i have a couple of nephews who are Panther fans and I constantly joke to them that you only say Boo to CMC and he is injured.
I hope all these weapons lead somewhere. I cringed last Sunday watching them get destroyed by Atlanta. But at the end of the day they need Jimmy G to produce. I am still haunted by a wide open Emmanuel Sanders and a pass saling way over him. I also remember screaming "don't get sacked" in the NFCCG (getting sacked is not really only on him though).
With regards to the draft picks, having all these extra 3rd rounders helps a lot. They do not have a 1st anyway, so they gave up the 2nd rounder (and they can always trade up if they see the need). This team is soild for this year and next year (after which they get a full draft) and then it will depend on how creative they can be in signing their big players who are "graduating" from rookie contracts.
Thrilled with this trade, but i have a couple of nephews who are Panther fans and I constantly joke to them that you only say Boo to CMC and he is injured.
I hope all these weapons lead somewhere. I cringed last Sunday watching them get destroyed by Atlanta. But at the end of the day they need Jimmy G to produce. I am still haunted by a wide open Emmanuel Sanders and a pass saling way over him. I also remember screaming "don't get sacked" in the NFCCG (getting sacked is not really only on him though).
With regards to the draft picks, having all these extra 3rd rounders helps a lot. They do not have a 1st anyway, so they gave up the 2nd rounder (and they can always trade up if they see the need). This team is soild for this year and next year (after which they get a full draft) and then it will depend on how creative they can be in signing their big players who are "graduating" from rookie contracts.
Right. Running backs have a short shelf life in the NFL, not because the guys don’t work out or train hard, but because of the consistent punishment they take.
They lose the explosion or quickness that made them good in the first place, and they’re replaced by one of the dozen other draft eligible RBs entering the league every year.
CMC adds value as a receiver, but touches are touches and all of that volume wears down a player, especially a guy that isn’t overly big or physical.
Kyle rode Deebo Samuel into the dirt like he was a rented mule to the point where Deebo wanted to leave SF in the off-season. He isn’t exactly an expert on load management or limiting touches. He’s probably going to ride CMC into the dirt as well, and we’ll find out if he can still handle that type of work.
My point is that shouldn’t diminish his value. There’s a perception that he’s more likely to get injured over the next 3 years than any other running back but it’s a false narrative.
Not to mention that half of their starting defense has managed to get hurt in the first few weeks of the season. I don't know what research has been done to determine predictability of injury in the NFL, but an oft-injured guy going to SF seems like a bad combination.
This is just a fan thread, but throws out some interesting numbers.
View: https://twitter.com/NinerNick_22/status/1582949523889934336?t=WdULj0cIvpO1IZTTEeHO5A&s=19
Well, it didn't diminish his value too much. Four injuries in 2 years isn't nothing though, and the effects of those start to add up. He's also 26, so going forward he's on the old side for a RB, a lot of guys don't get back to what they were from 23-25.
I think he is more likely to get injured or just be less effective because he's on the wrong side of 25 and he has >2000 NFL/CFB touches. I haven't watched him this year and maybe it's worth it if he makes a difference this year, but any 26-year-old running back has been taking major punishment for over 10 years. It's just a bad use of resources.
Imagine if they had chosen Brady over Jimmy 3 years ago when TB12 wanted to go to SF. They’d likely have 1 SB trophy in the case already and be the favorite again. These weapons are insane.
Some contradictions. If CMC is a big overpay, what was Edmonds, stapled to the bench, at 12 million over two? Seems like they could have found a RB to staple to the bench at 1-1.5 million per.
And Mostert is great when he's not hurt. He missed 8 games in 2020. He missed 16 games in 2021. He's had a moderate work load in 2022, so he's not hurt, yet. Moster's career high in yards in a season is 900. McCaffrey's is 2400.
You're comparing these two guys? And you're using stats from 2022, when Carolina is a straight up dumpster fire, to prove the point? Seems like really faulty logic.
Was it the 9ers who chose? Or was it the Pats who, choosing to keep Brady offered Jimmy G? I don't think if Brady is traded the return would have been the same.
I think he's referring to the rumor that the Niners could have dumped Jimmy for Brady when Brady was a free agent (and wound up with Tampa).
Edmonds was an overpay 100%. I’m pretty sure I basically acknowledged that. Mostert has been much better than him at a fraction of the price.
I think Miami went into the season assuming Edmonds would be in the Mostert role and Mostert would be a complement, but Edmonds has looked lost running the ball and has absolutely clanked a few balls in the passing game. He’s been a dumpster fire so far. Edmonds is also on an essentially one year deal with a team option for next year. They can cut him in the off-season and move on from him for next to nothing.
CMC is certainly a better player than Mostert when they are both at 100%. He adds more value in the passing game. He’s a very good running back.
That being said, I would rather have Mostert on a 1yr/2.5 million dollar deal than handing over the draft picks to acquire CMC and potentially paying him 12 million dollars next season, which the 49ers will almost certainly do since the forked over so much capital.
I was coming in to say the same thing. I would be VERY surprised if he was not primarily used as a backfield / slot receiver in Shanahan’s offense, with Deebo and Wilson still be the primary ball-carriers.
It is a lot of draft picks to give up, and for the large majority of teams it is probably a bad move, but for a team like the 9ers that have an elite, SB-caliber defense, and have the weapons they have on offense already, it is the exact kind of move they should be making (not even considering the extra comp picks they got for the minority coaches that got promoted and left).
They should be a really fun team to watch.
Right, that’s a completely valid argument. There’s a ton of risk in putting a lot of resources into running backs. But if it was Ekler, Chubb, Kamara, Cook, Zeke, or the other 26-27 year old running backs, would people have the same take on the trade cost? Maybe. But most of the takes seem to be this is a lot for an “injury prone” player, not that it’s too much for a 26 year old running back. That’s my point. I don’t think CMC is any more likely to miss games than those other guys. They’re all high risk.
Whether this was an effective use of resources…I’m not sure. I wouldn’t have wanted the Pats to make this deal because I think they need another year or two of multiple picks to hopefully hit on starters and continue to build depth. But for the 49ers, or Bills who were also rumored, they have good cores and are competing now and next couple of years. For those teams, late second, third, and fourth round picks aren’t a huge loss for one of the five most dynamic players in the league over that span.
CMC is an elite pass catcher. Not for a running back, for any player. He is phenomenal if he's healthy and he's one of the biggest weapons in all of the NFL. He is one of the best runners, if not the best, in open space.
I guess people don't realize it because he's been stuck in Carolina. Maybe people know the fantasy performances he used to put up but that's it. But just watch him. He's a weapon who has been in the gulag or hurt for the past few years. In a Shanny offense, if he's healthy, he's going to dominate.
But the health part is where the risk comes in. SF basically kills every player on their team. Not just RBs. Every defensive player, too.
I guess people don't realize it because he's been stuck in Carolina. Maybe people know the fantasy performances he used to put up but that's it. But just watch him. He's a weapon who has been in the gulag or hurt for the past few years. In a Shanny offense, if he's healthy, he's going to dominate.
But the health part is where the risk comes in. SF basically kills every player on their team. Not just RBs. Every defensive player, too.
@sodenj5 yes, if I were a fins fan and they did this I’d be pissed too. You're absolutely not alone with how you are seeing this trade. It's not that CMC isn't a pro-bowl caliber or at least a very good player. He is. It's more this is bad or at least questionable team building, allocation of resources, and risk management.
Is CMC still a HOF kind of player or is he just very good? I am not sure. I know he's at least very good. PFF has an elusiveness rating which is: (Missed Tackles Forced) / (Designed Run Attempts + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact Per Attempt * 100). Of the running backs with 50 carries CMC ranks 11th out of 41 qualified backs. Future pro-bowler Rham is 2 spots ahead of him
.
We can also track his breakaway runs: Which runners earn the highest (and lowest) % of their yardage on big plays (any designed runs of 15 yards or more).
He's 18th. Now look - sure he is playing behind a bad line but plenty of other backs are too. Khalil Herbert for example plays on a run heavy CHI team with a terrible OL and he is tearing it up (relatively small SS). But it's possible with his injuries and age that he isn't the same guy. Still very good but not quite the same. You'd really have to watch his tape to know for sure. I haven't. Have any of you?
No doubt he's going to a great situation in SF. He's going to help this team and Jimmy G needs all the help he can get. If you don't have a good QB you need to surround that QB with a ton of talent. They do have a potential issue on offense though. Instead of trading for OL which might have been harder to do or not even an option they are going to sit pat. Unfortunately right now they are 1 OL injury from being in serious trouble. They don't have a functional center, issues at both guard spots, and next year it gets even scarier. Next year they have 33 guys under the roster and about 27m or so in cap space. They will need to replace their RT, Center, and probably one of their guard spots. They might need to get 3 OL starters alone. Paying 12m for an RB instead of drafting and developing one is an opportunity cost. Those 12m could get you at least 1 offensive line starter.
RBs rarely get healthier. He's hurt both ankles, his hamstring, his thigh, and his shoulder. It's more likely than not as he continues to age he will be an injury risk.
Giving up the equivalent to the 30th overall pick for an RB when you have a tight cap situation, don't have a stable offensive line this year or next year, and you have hardly any quality picks this year is short sighted to me. RB is not a valuable position even if that RB can also run routes from the slot. Do you really want to spend 12m and all those picks on a position you should be drafting and developing and when you need starters and have limited cap space. It's harder to see the future consequences of this move vs "This is a good fit and should be fun to watch" (which is true) but as Ben Baldwin said back in 2019...
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1583445776209846273?s=20&t=7iz8lP9O6zXLgMUAQhtYmg
They're one running back away from being one running back away
And just think about the allocation of resources here.
For people keeping track they have spent the following picks on the RB position:
They used two of their 4th round picks to trade up for Trey Sermon in 2021.
They used a 6th rounder to draft Elijah Mitchell in 2021.
They used a 3rd round pick to draft Tyrion Davis-Price in 2022.
And now they traded a 2023 2-3-4 and a 2024 5 to get CMC. That's a lot of draft capital for the RB room. Usually the upside when you use that much capital is that you don't have to PAY anyone but here that isn't the case.
To put that into perspective that amount of draft capital for 3 players is equal to about the 11th player in the draft. (remember they got rid of Sermon).
Final edit. I have no issue with draft an RB in the mid to late first and even investing in that position every year or every other year in rounds 3-4 (and sometimes 2). That's fine! Patriots have done that to great success! But the advantage to doing that is you get the most value out of your RBs who are best on their first contract and the bill is small. This is over-investing in the wrong way and it is not an efficient or prudent allocation of resources.
Is CMC still a HOF kind of player or is he just very good? I am not sure. I know he's at least very good. PFF has an elusiveness rating which is: (Missed Tackles Forced) / (Designed Run Attempts + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact Per Attempt * 100). Of the running backs with 50 carries CMC ranks 11th out of 41 qualified backs. Future pro-bowler Rham is 2 spots ahead of him
.We can also track his breakaway runs: Which runners earn the highest (and lowest) % of their yardage on big plays (any designed runs of 15 yards or more).
He's 18th. Now look - sure he is playing behind a bad line but plenty of other backs are too. Khalil Herbert for example plays on a run heavy CHI team with a terrible OL and he is tearing it up (relatively small SS). But it's possible with his injuries and age that he isn't the same guy. Still very good but not quite the same. You'd really have to watch his tape to know for sure. I haven't. Have any of you?
No doubt he's going to a great situation in SF. He's going to help this team and Jimmy G needs all the help he can get. If you don't have a good QB you need to surround that QB with a ton of talent. They do have a potential issue on offense though. Instead of trading for OL which might have been harder to do or not even an option they are going to sit pat. Unfortunately right now they are 1 OL injury from being in serious trouble. They don't have a functional center, issues at both guard spots, and next year it gets even scarier. Next year they have 33 guys under the roster and about 27m or so in cap space. They will need to replace their RT, Center, and probably one of their guard spots. They might need to get 3 OL starters alone. Paying 12m for an RB instead of drafting and developing one is an opportunity cost. Those 12m could get you at least 1 offensive line starter.
RBs rarely get healthier. He's hurt both ankles, his hamstring, his thigh, and his shoulder. It's more likely than not as he continues to age he will be an injury risk.
Giving up the equivalent to the 30th overall pick for an RB when you have a tight cap situation, don't have a stable offensive line this year or next year, and you have hardly any quality picks this year is short sighted to me. RB is not a valuable position even if that RB can also run routes from the slot. Do you really want to spend 12m and all those picks on a position you should be drafting and developing and when you need starters and have limited cap space. It's harder to see the future consequences of this move vs "This is a good fit and should be fun to watch" (which is true) but as Ben Baldwin said back in 2019...
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1583445776209846273?s=20&t=7iz8lP9O6zXLgMUAQhtYmg
They're one running back away from being one running back away
And just think about the allocation of resources here.
For people keeping track they have spent the following picks on the RB position:
They used two of their 4th round picks to trade up for Trey Sermon in 2021.
They used a 6th rounder to draft Elijah Mitchell in 2021.
They used a 3rd round pick to draft Tyrion Davis-Price in 2022.
And now they traded a 2023 2-3-4 and a 2024 5 to get CMC. That's a lot of draft capital for the RB room. Usually the upside when you use that much capital is that you don't have to PAY anyone but here that isn't the case.
To put that into perspective that amount of draft capital for 3 players is equal to about the 11th player in the draft. (remember they got rid of Sermon).
Final edit. I have no issue with draft an RB in the mid to late first and even investing in that position every year or every other year in rounds 3-4 (and sometimes 2). That's fine! Patriots have done that to great success! But the advantage to doing that is you get the most value out of your RBs who are best on their first contract and the bill is small. This is over-investing in the wrong way and it is not an efficient or prudent allocation of resources.
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You could even argue drafting a RB at the end of round 1 is better business than drafting one in the second round because of the 5th year option.@sodenj5 yes, if I were a fins fan and they did this I’d be pissed too. You're absolutely not alone with how you are seeing this trade. It's not that CMC isn't a pro-bowl caliber or at least a very good player. He is. It's more this is bad or at least questionable team building, allocation of resources, and risk management.
Is CMC still a HOF kind of player or is he just very good? I am not sure. I know he's at least very good. PFF has an elusiveness rating which is: (Missed Tackles Forced) / (Designed Run Attempts + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact Per Attempt * 100). Of the running backs with 50 carries CMC ranks 11th out of 41 qualified backs. Future pro-bowler Rham is 2 spots ahead of him
View attachment 56736
We can also track his breakaway runs: Which runners earn the highest (and lowest) % of their yardage on big plays (any designed runs of 15 yards or more).
View attachment 56737
He's 18th. Now look - sure he is playing behind a bad line but plenty of other backs are too. Khalil Herbert for example plays on a run heavy CHI team with a terrible OL and he is tearing it up (relatively small SS). But it's possible with his injuries and age that he isn't the same guy. Still very good but not quite the same. You'd really have to watch his tape to know for sure. I haven't. Have any of you?
No doubt he's going to a great situation in SF. He's going to help this team and Jimmy G needs all the help he can get. If you don't have a good QB you need to surround that QB with a ton of talent. They do have a potential issue on offense though. Instead of trading for OL which might have been harder to do or not even an option they are going to sit pat. Unfortunately right now they are 1 OL injury from being in serious trouble. They don't have a functional center, issues at both guard spots, and next year it gets even scarier. Next year they have 33 guys under the roster and about 27m or so in cap space. They will need to replace their RT, Center, and probably one of their guard spots. They might need to get 3 OL starters alone. Paying 12m for an RB instead of drafting and developing one is an opportunity cost. Those 12m could get you at least 1 offensive line starter.
RBs rarely get healthier. He's hurt both ankles, his hamstring, his thigh, and his shoulder. It's more likely than not as he continues to age he will be an injury risk.
Giving up the equivalent to the 30th overall pick for an RB when you have a tight cap situation, don't have a stable offensive line this year or next year, and you have hardly any quality picks this year is short sighted to me. RB is not a valuable position even if that RB can also run routes from the slot. Do you really want to spend 12m and all those picks on a position you should be drafting and developing and when you need starters and have limited cap space. It's harder to see the future consequences of this move vs "This is a good fit and should be fun to watch" (which is true) but as Ben Baldwin said back in 2019...
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1583445776209846273?s=20&t=7iz8lP9O6zXLgMUAQhtYmg
They're one running back away from being one running back away
And just think about the allocation of resources here.
For people keeping track they have spent the following picks on the RB position:
They used two of their 4th round picks to trade up for Trey Sermon in 2021.
They used a 6th rounder to draft Elijah Mitchell in 2021.
They used a 3rd round pick to draft Tyrion Davis-Price in 2022.
And now they traded a 2023 2-3-4 and a 2024 5 to get CMC. That's a lot of draft capital for the RB room. Usually the upside when you use that much capital is that you don't have to PAY anyone but here that isn't the case.
To put that into perspective that amount of draft capital for 3 players is equal to about the 11th player in the draft. (remember they got rid of Sermon).
Final edit. I have no issue with draft an RB in the mid to late first and even investing in that position every year or every other year in rounds 3-4 (and sometimes 2). That's fine! Patriots have done that to great success! But the advantage to doing that is you get the most value out of your RBs who are best on their first contract and the bill is small. This is over-investing in the wrong way and it is not an efficient or prudent allocation of resources.
Drafting a RB and having them produce on a cost controlled contract is good business. Paying Zeke Elliott, or CMC, or Todd Gurley, or Devonta Freeman, or Jerrick McKinnon, or basically any other running back beyond the first contract is bad business. Giving up a bunch of draft capital to acquire one of those guys that has already shown signs of breaking down and paying market value dollars on top of it? Absolutely terrible business.
I think the 5th year option is overvalued honestly especially in this new CBA but it's probably a decent option if you get a stud in year 5. If you can get them on a very reasonable team friendly second contract that is one thing . CMC and Zeke's deal are not that... although if CMC stays healthy that's a reasonable contract for SF because they don't pay the pro-rated bonus and it's 12m a year. The problem is you're betting on an aging RB with injuries in the last 2 years to avoid more injuries and that's like you said bad business.
. CMC and Zeke's deal are not that... although if CMC stays healthy that's a reasonable contract for SF because they don't pay the pro-rated bonus and it's 12m a year. The problem is you're betting on an aging RB with injuries in the last 2 years to avoid more injuries and that's like you said bad business.
I disagree with a ton of this but am 3 Pinot noirs deep from dinner and not ready to dissect it all.@sodenj5 yes, if I were a fins fan and they did this I’d be pissed too. You're absolutely not alone with how you are seeing this trade. It's not that CMC isn't a pro-bowl caliber or at least a very good player. He is. It's more this is bad or at least questionable team building, allocation of resources, and risk management.
Is CMC still a HOF kind of player or is he just very good? I am not sure. I know he's at least very good. PFF has an elusiveness rating which is: (Missed Tackles Forced) / (Designed Run Attempts + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact Per Attempt * 100). Of the running backs with 50 carries CMC ranks 11th out of 41 qualified backs. Future pro-bowler Rham is 2 spots ahead of him
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We can also track his breakaway runs: Which runners earn the highest (and lowest) % of their yardage on big plays (any designed runs of 15 yards or more).
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He's 18th. Now look - sure he is playing behind a bad line but plenty of other backs are too. Khalil Herbert for example plays on a run heavy CHI team with a terrible OL and he is tearing it up (relatively small SS). But it's possible with his injuries and age that he isn't the same guy. Still very good but not quite the same. You'd really have to watch his tape to know for sure. I haven't. Have any of you?
No doubt he's going to a great situation in SF. He's going to help this team and Jimmy G needs all the help he can get. If you don't have a good QB you need to surround that QB with a ton of talent. They do have a potential issue on offense though. Instead of trading for OL which might have been harder to do or not even an option they are going to sit pat. Unfortunately right now they are 1 OL injury from being in serious trouble. They don't have a functional center, issues at both guard spots, and next year it gets even scarier. Next year they have 33 guys under the roster and about 27m or so in cap space. They will need to replace their RT, Center, and probably one of their guard spots. They might need to get 3 OL starters alone. Paying 12m for an RB instead of drafting and developing one is an opportunity cost. Those 12m could get you at least 1 offensive line starter.
RBs rarely get healthier. He's hurt both ankles, his hamstring, his thigh, and his shoulder. It's more likely than not as he continues to age he will be an injury risk.
Giving up the equivalent to the 30th overall pick for an RB when you have a tight cap situation, don't have a stable offensive line this year or next year, and you have hardly any quality picks this year is short sighted to me. RB is not a valuable position even if that RB can also run routes from the slot. Do you really want to spend 12m and all those picks on a position you should be drafting and developing and when you need starters and have limited cap space. It's harder to see the future consequences of this move vs "This is a good fit and should be fun to watch" (which is true) but as Ben Baldwin said back in 2019...
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1583445776209846273?s=20&t=7iz8lP9O6zXLgMUAQhtYmg
They're one running back away from being one running back away
And just think about the allocation of resources here.
For people keeping track they have spent the following picks on the RB position:
They used two of their 4th round picks to trade up for Trey Sermon in 2021.
They used a 6th rounder to draft Elijah Mitchell in 2021.
They used a 3rd round pick to draft Tyrion Davis-Price in 2022.
And now they traded a 2023 2-3-4 and a 2024 5 to get CMC. That's a lot of draft capital for the RB room. Usually the upside when you use that much capital is that you don't have to PAY anyone but here that isn't the case.
To put that into perspective that amount of draft capital for 3 players is equal to about the 11th player in the draft. (remember they got rid of Sermon).
Final edit. I have no issue with draft an RB in the mid to late first and even investing in that position every year or every other year in rounds 3-4 (and sometimes 2). That's fine! Patriots have done that to great success! But the advantage to doing that is you get the most value out of your RBs who are best on their first contract and the bill is small. This is over-investing in the wrong way and it is not an efficient or prudent allocation of resources.
But, while I agree Brendel needs replacing, what about Buford or Banks has been anything other than at worst average for guards this year? They used draft capital for those guys and they’re pretty good! I actually think they’ve both been above average all things considered (for example playing next to Trent Williams is going to help banks a lot more than playing next to jaylon Moore. But even with Williams out banks has held his own).
I’m also not someone who thinks the cap is bs, but the idea that this contract doesn’t get restructured is silly. Hell the niners beat writers have already referenced that they’ve heard about restructuring already and the guy hasn’t played a down yet.
I’m fine with people thinking he’s injury prone or that running backs are fungible. But CMC is going to hold the niners back from a roster construction standpoint? Come on, that’s just not reality with how the cap and roster construction works.
Also looking back at past drafts where they’ve taking running backs is why they’re making the trade! Sermon was bad, TDP has been hurt and non productive since camp, etc.
Sure their misses in the draft “equals” the no. 11 pick or whatever. Same with every team that ever existed. That’s a complete nonsense stat.
Instead of playing the draft misses they’ve made a move for someone who has proven to be a playmaker in the past. Will it work? No idea. But it’s smart front offices that don’t hold on to guys just because people get obsessed over where they were drafted.
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I have heard and read from The Athletic and other pods and places that Buford and Banks they have been average to below average there. Brendel has been awful and RT is empty next year. This isn't news to the 49ers who have needed OL for years now in the draft. I have the privilege of doing them each year in a slack 7 round mock so I follow them year after year. Last year for example I gave them:
| San Francisco 49ers | Cole Strange, OL, Chattanooga | Luke Goedeke, Central Michigan, IOL | Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati | Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State | Michael Clemons, Edge, Texas A&M | Haskell Garrett, IDL, Ohio State | Abram Smith, Baylor, RB | Dare Rosenthal, OT, Kentucky | Kevin Austin Jr., WR, ND |
This is before the draft and btw - Cole Strange was high on their draft board.
Every contract and every dollar comes due. Denying opportunity cost because you can kick the can down the road doesn't mean you can deny its existence entirely. You can only restructure so much anyway. The dollars going to someone eventually impact cap and roster construction. The cap isn't crap. You can only fuck around before you find out those limitations.
You are not understanding my point. My point is not that they missed. I am not arguing that at all. Mitchell is a hit. The point is that they have invested a considerable amount of draft capital over 2-3 years now in RBs. They already have Jeff Wilson who is a perfectly adequate RB. The other point is that when you invest draft capital into a position you expect not to pay $$ to that position. It's one thing to trade for a premiere WR (how is that working out for LV and Miami?) and less viable at a much less valuable position. It's not clear if trading draft capital and then paying for the player is worth it at any position but QB to begin with but RB?
Front offices don't hold onto sunk costs, right, but I have no idea how you got that from my point about draft capital and $ capital allocated to RB. Sermon was a bad pick. He didn't fit the profile of outside zone runners Shanahan likes (speed over all). Sermon was more of a classic cutback artist who worked better in inside zone. Shanahan has chased RBs before in the draft. Small sample size but he's 0/2. Moving on from the mistake is prudent. Putting too much capital into RB is a mistake. Smart front offices don't usually over-invest in running back. It happens sometimes but cap and resource allocation analytics would poo-poo such investment.
It's harder to see the opportunity cost. I can't say you could have CMC or XYZ players because it's unknown what you would have done with them. Restructure all you want...
If you restructure CMC you can get around 7m more cap space next year. So... 22m, 34 players on the roster and you need multiple starters including RT and C. Would you rather have CMC or Elijah Mitchell, TDP, 3 draft picks and another 4-6m in cap space for 2023? Personally I would rather have the latter.
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Looks like he’ll get at least a couple touches tomorrow despite no practices.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1584002666023510016
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1584002666023510016
The Athletic pod reaction to this came out today. I’d encourage any of you to listen as these guys actually watch and are good critical thinkers. Their assessment: 1) SF interior offensive line is questionable at best this year and they have no quality depth (I wish I had time to watch that much tape). 2) this is an irresponsible move to make in the short and long run in terms of resource allocation and roster building. 3) they’ve invested too many resources at RB which is problematic for multiple reasons. 4) it’s going to be stupid fun to watch but they are threading a tiny needle. I've been trying to do a charity bet with my friends on this one but aside from CMC games played which they won't take I can't think of a way to bet on how this won't work out. It is going to be amazing to watch though...
SMU_Sox, just wanted to thank you for your contributions to this forum. I've learned a lot from you and the many other very knowledgeable posters here. If you ever visit the Rochester (NY) area, let me know and I'll buy you a beer.