Playoffs? Playoffs!??!?!?

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Sorry Jim... .but I do wanna talk about playoffs (and especially the Red Sox possibly sneaking in).
I'm proposing this as a sort of reverse magic number thread like we've had in past years when they either won the division or clinched a WC.
Currently at 71-62 with 29 games remaining. 6 games out of a Wild Card spot.
I'm guardedly optimistic they can make it (I know it's getting close to a logistical impossibility if not a pure mathmatical one at this point).... and even without Sale I think they could do some damage if Price comes back fully healthy. Ed Rod pitching the way he has recently with Price possibly putting on a show like he did last post-season would be a great matchup against the Yankees (and I'd pick the Sox in a 7 game series).

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE

 

[Cesar Crespo]

We saw worse odds with chicken and beer. Good news is we play TB 4 more times and TB and Cleveland have 3 games against each other. Bad news is we don't play Cleveland or Oakland and Cleveland and Oakland don't play each other.

 

[Manramsclan]

If the A's go 19-12 in their last 31 games that they still have to play, the Red Sox would have to go 24-5 to tie them for a Wild Card play-in game.

While I do believe the former is plausible, the latter shows no indication of happening. In order for it to happen they would have to be unbeatable and not just winning series.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Essentially the "magic number" for either Cleveland or Tampa then is 7? Math not my strong suit... not even my weak suit actually.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Five weeks to make up six games and leap over at least two teams. It's not out of the realm of possibilities. Remember 2011. Remember the 2007 Rockies.

And if they can squeak into the playoffs, that might open the door for Sale to contribute. The word was six weeks after the PRP injection he'll be reevaluated. That's just about the last weekend of the season. Maybe he's not there for the wildcard game or the LDS, but if they can get to the LCS, perhaps he will be in position to contribute out of the pen.

 

[DanoooME]

There's always a chance, but I don't think anything short of an exorcism is going to get this team to the playoffs.

Jose Ramirez going down could help, but it would take another big change to one of the other contenders to seriously think about it. Oh, and a complete turnaround of the rotation.

 

[bankshot1]

Essentially the "magic number" for either Cleveland or Tampa then is 7? Math not my strong suit... not even my weak suit actually.

I may have missed your meaning, but If the Sox win out, admittedly a very unlikely event, they will have a 100-62 record, so the WC magic # is far higher than 7. Though it gets complicated with several teams and a shared schedule.

IMO the Sox are looking for a miraculous #.

 

[BroodsSexton]

If the A's go 19-12 in their last 31 games that they still have to play, the Red Sox would have to go 24-5 to tie them for a Wild Card play-in game.

While I do believe the former is plausible, the latter shows no indication of happening. In order for it to happen they would have to be unbeatable and not just winning series.

Why are you assuming the A’s will play at a .612 clip? .580 (which is their pace this year) only gives them 16 wins with 13 losses.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Why are you assuming the A’s will play at a .612 clip? .580 (which is their pace this year) only gives them 16 wins with 13 losses.

16-13 is a .552 clip and only 29 games. 18-13 is a .580 clip. So he was off one game. That means the Sox would have to go 23-6.

They'd also need 3 teams to play at their current pace while doing so. More likely, they need 2 of the 3 teams ahead of them to play around .500 or worse. Even then it would be hard. If Oakland goes 15-16, the Sox would have to go 21-8, which is a .724 clip. They really need 2 of Oakland, Cleveland and TB to go like 12-19 unless they go on a ridiculous winning stretch.

edit: In that regard, I think the Sox may have a bigger uphill battle than the Rays. The Rays only had to focus on the Redsox if IIRC. And as we remember, the Braves also lost a huge lead that year.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I may have missed your meaning, but If the Sox win out, admittedly a very unlikely event, they will have a 100-62 record, so the WC magic # is far higher than 7. Though it gets complicated with several teams and a shared schedule.

IMO the Sox are looking for a miraculous #.

Apologies. I'm just trying to find the Reverse of a Magic Number for the Sox. I'm not sure how to find that out.... how many wins by other teams and/or losses by the Sox would absolutely mathmatically eliminate at this point. Ignore the "7" I tossed out there. I don't even know how I figured that one and it doesn't make a wick of sense

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Apologies. I'm just trying to find the Reverse of a Magic Number for the Sox. I'm not sure how to find that out.... how many wins by other teams and/or losses by the Sox would absolutely mathmatically eliminate at this point. Ignore the "7" I tossed out there. I don't even know how I figured that one and it doesn't make a wick of sense

The Red Sox "reverse" magic number is 25. Any combination of losses and Oakland wins that adds up to 25 will eliminate them from the wildcard. It is the same number for Tampa to eliminate the Sox.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

how many losses by the Sox would absolutely mathmatically eliminate at this point.

This part is easy. It's 24 losses.

edit: Yeah, 25. If you're curious how to figure it out, Oakland has 76 wins so the Redsox would need to lose at least 87 games to not be able to get to 76 wins. They have 62. So... 25.

 

[Pitt the Elder]

You need 2 of the Ray's, As, or Indians to have a really rough 2-8 patch with the Sox playing pretty exceptional ball the rest of the way. Improbable, but not impossible.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd like to see the Sox win 4 straight here over the next 5 days. Tampa has 5 against Houston and Cleveland. Maybe they go 2-3. If so, the Sox would pick up 2.5 games, bringing them to just 3.5 behind Tampa. Then if the Sox can hang with them until the next to last weekend in September, when they have four games head-to-head, that at least would be pretty interesting and intense.

Meanwhile, Oakland has gone 9-3 in their last 12, so it's not like they're showing signs of struggling. But who knows...maybe they play .500 ball the rest of the way. And Cleveland has a pretty nice schedule so I don't expect them to drop out.

Huge, enormous uphill climb for the Sox. At this point, I'd love to just see them playing some meaningful games the last week of the season.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

the A's schedule is pretty easy the rest of the way, take a look.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

So where we play TB 4 more times, we should actually be rooting for them to sweep Cleveland when they play, assuming we can make up at least a game against the Rays before we play them.

 

[InstaFace]

FWIW, Fangraphs has us at 7.3% to take a wild card (and has TB at 51%). That's not great, but stranger things have happened, too.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I like our chances

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm kind of excited by the thought we won't be finishing in first or last. Hasn't happened in close to a decade. Way to mix it up.

 

[LesterFan]

538 gives them a 4% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

[mauf]

If the Sox go 20-9 the rest of the way, they’d still need two of the three teams ahead of them post losing records the rest of the way.

Baseball Prospectus gives them roughly a 6-7% chance to maybe playoffs. (The actual number is 3.4%, but that’s to make it to the ALDS, and I assume the vast majority of the scenarios with that outcome involve winning the Wild Card game.) That sounds about right to me.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

[findguapo]

I feel better about the playoff odds if I think about it in the short term -- basically, they can be right back in it with a 4 game stretch where all the right things happen. As long as that is a possibility, I keep the hope alive.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Indians 78-55
A's 76-56
======
Rays 76-58, 1.0 GB
Sox 72-62, 5.0 GB

we go 20-8 --> 92 wins
Rays go 15-13 --> 91 wins
A's go 15-15 --> 91 wins
(Indians go 13-16 --> 91 wins)

I feel like the Indians and A's schedules are just too easy that 92 won't be enough, and we likely end up around 88 anyways. this stretch of so many days off and mediocre opponents is going to end soon - going 20-8 to finish just feels unfathomable without Sale and eventually 11 more games against Twins, Yanks, Rays (our record against winning teams is still horrible, right?)

 

[dcmissle]

It’s fun to root for a reverse 2011, and the odds will soon enough be at 2011 levels.

Bullpens cost the Nationals the NL East and the Red Sox the WC.

 

[streeter88]

Somehow it feels like it’ll take 94 wins to get the 2nd wild card.

 

[bsj]

If the Sox can get some mojo and string together an 15 wins in 20 games type run, that just so aligns with a middling A's run of like 11-9, and then they can manage to win 3 of 4 vs Tampa, the last 6 pack could get interesting.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

It’s fun to root for a reverse 2011, and the odds will soon enough be at 2011 levels.

Bullpens cost the Nationals the NL East and the Red Sox the WC.

Care to have yet another discussion of why the bullpen would be to blame?

 

[Coachster]

There's always a chance, but I don't think anything short of an exorcism is going to get this team to the playoffs.

Jose Ramirez going down could help, but it would take another big change to one of the other contenders to seriously think about it. Oh, and a complete turnaround of the rotation.

This.

I'd feel a lot better if our 4th and 5th starters weren't Brian Johnson and fuck all. (and that includes Price's return on Sunday, which will probably be of the 3 inning 60 pitch variety.)

Nice to root for the home team, but do you really want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs? (Interesting to assume that if a miracle happens, Edro would be the starter in the wild card game.)

 

[JimD]

For me, any excitement over an improbable hot streak and stretch run would be offset by annoyed thoughts of 'Now you're making a run? Where the f*** have you guys been all year?'

I'll always root for my teams no matter what, and meaningful games into the last week would be terrific, but I have zero expectations right now for this season.

 

[joe dokes]

Nice to root for the home team, but do you really want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs? (Interesting to assume that if a miracle happens, Edro would be the starter in the wild card game.)

Yes. I do want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This.

I'd feel a lot better if our 4th and 5th starters weren't Brian Johnson and fuck all. (and that includes Price's return on Sunday, which will probably be of the 3 inning 60 pitch variety.)

Nice to root for the home team, but do you really want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs? (Interesting to assume that if a miracle happens, Edro would be the starter in the wild card game.)

If this team makes the playoffs, it will be in large part because the pitching staff is on some sort of roll (the bullpen has been on a roll for the last month+). So, fuck yes I want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs. I want to see this team in the playoffs. That's all I ever want as a fan. Why in the world would I ever prefer to see the team miss the playoffs?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

but do you really want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs? (Interesting to assume that if a miracle happens, Edro would be the starter in the wild card game.)

Would you rather them not make the playoffs instead?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Nice to root for the home team, but do you really want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs?

 

[BaseballJones]

Yes. I do want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs.

I know, right? If you're in the tournament, you actually have a chance.

 

[DJnVa]

Nice to root for the home team, but do you really want to see this pitching staff in the playoffs? (Interesting to assume that if a miracle happens, Edro would be the starter in the wild card game.)

Eh? Fuck yes. You know why? Cuz they get to bring this offense with them.

And no I wouldn't assume that about Edro. If (when!!) the Sox qualify it's gonna go right down to the wire. I seriously doubt we'll have the luxury of setting up our rotation or assuming it plays out from here by looking at the days.

Postseason Cora is different. Edro might be pitching 2 innings in relief to win game #162.

 

[redsox11507]

the A's schedule is pretty easy the rest of the way, take a look.

The A's Schedule is the stick in the mud to my eyes. The remaining games against teams over .500 for teams in the wild card race.

A's 7/30 games (Yankees/Astros)
Rays 12/28 games (Cleveland/Boston/Yankees/Dodgers)
Red Sox 13/28 games (Yankees/Rays/Twins/Phillies)
Indians 15/29 games (Rays/Twins x2/Phillies/Nats)

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Rodriguez really has been having a pretty great season despite last night. He started off rough but since mid June he's sporting a 3.09 ERA. Even Porcello has been looking solid lately. We'll definitely be needing David Fucking Price to show up down the stretch and into the playoffs to have a chance. Assuming that Sale could possibly used as a one inning reliever in the playoffs, it'd still be difficult but the Sox bullpen has been great since mid season, and as mentioned above- the Sox offense could be the difference. I think it's clearly Houston's year. The Yankees rotation is far too flawed- even compared to the Sox right now IMO.
Oakland and Tampa both lost right now, so that reverse magic number stays at 25. It's a long shot, but it's actually still holding my interest.

 

[DJnVa]

This.

I'd feel a lot better if our 4th and 5th starters weren't Brian Johnson and fuck all

Johnson is moving to the pen. Top 4 are Edro, Porcello, Price and Eovaldi and then they'll do a bullpen day.

 

[bosockboy]

This is the weekend to make the big dent. A’s in NY for 3, Rays 3 against Cleveland. Let’s see where we are at Monday.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I gotta root for the Yanks? Shit.

 

[joe dokes]

I gotta root for the Yanks? Shit.

Some mental gymnastics can allow you to root for the A's to do poorly.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I dunno. And I will be in NYC this weekend, too. Shit

 

[bosockboy]

Greater good. So we can beat them in October again.

 

[donutogre]

I'll admit that I had the "oh shit playoffs?" thought this morning when I woke up after another win. They've definitely been on a nice run lately, but this thread threw some cold harsh reality in my face. Still, it's a lot more fun to have the "What if??" thoughts when they're playing well and still technically hanging on. Asking the Sox to play as good as they need to AND have a few teams collapse is probably too much to ask, but it'll be fun to watch.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

things would be a lot more palatable if the Yanks didn't get swept at the Coliseum, and we won 2/3 of the dumb Phillies / one Padres loss.

 

[bosockboy]

things would be a lot more palatable if the Yanks didn't get swept at the Coliseum, and we won 2/3 of the dumb Phillies / one Padres loss.

The two Phillies losses really hurt. Even splitting those makes a huge difference.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

The A's Schedule is the stick in the mud to my eyes.

Have no fear, as today they face Glenn "Spark It Up, Man" Sparkman. The Royals have lost The Spark Man's last seven starts... so he's due!

 

[DJnVa]

I'll admit that I had the "oh shit playoffs?" thought this morning when I woke up after another win. They've definitely been on a nice run lately, but this thread threw some cold harsh reality in my face. Still, it's a lot more fun to have the "What if??" thoughts when they're playing well and still technically hanging on. Asking the Sox to play as good as they need to AND have a few teams collapse is probably too much to ask, but it'll be fun to watch.

Yeah, the math is always hard. But it was more difficult 2 days ago.

I look shorter term. Pick up 1 game over next 2 days of games and the math gets easier. Short term matchups are in our favor. Take care of business in LA and if CLE and/or NYY help out things look much better.

 

[cheekydave]

When was the last time a team had 3 30 Hr 100 RBI .300 AVG plus guys and didnt make the playoffs?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Biggest 4 days of the season coming up starting today. Need A's/Rays to lose today then Red Sox hopefully sweep Angels and get help from Yankees and Indians.