Pats vs. Falcons discussion

johnmd20

johnmd20

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The biggest reason for concern is the fact that the Falcons were absolutely humiliated last Sunday. That was a Harlem Globetrotters style beatdown versus the Washington Generals. I would expect them to be coming out with a fervor. But the Pats are 7 point favorites on the road for a reason.

This Atlanta team isn't great. It can sometimes be good. Pats will win by 15 to 20 and Ryan will look old and slow.
 
SMU_Sox

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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BaseballJones said:
What were the respective DVOAs of Jacksonville and Buffalo last week?
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NFL favorites lose 10-20-25% of the time based/adjusted on spread. Stupid upsets happen and they happen all year long. The Ravens were just 7.5-8.5 road favorites and just got blown out by the Dolphins. You can find more examples of it because like I said earlier they happen all year round. Some are easier to see ahead of time than others. For example I saw the Jets-Titans game going into that matchup in survivor, outlined why it was a matchup to avoid, and low sure enough that was the case. Other times I’m dead wrong like being worried about the second Jets game because of the OL. You can logically be afraid of a random upset but it’s hard for me to find specific reasons in this matchup to have cause for concern. All indicators are that the Pats should win on both sides of the trenches, and the Falcons don’t have the skilled position players or schematic advantage to challenge the Pats. I don’t have a problem with people being concerned but I’m curious what your exact issue is? What matchup worries you? If it’s just “well favorites lose and the NFL is random, any given Sunday, etc.” then ok fine that’s valid but seems a little excessively paranoid. The Patriots could lose Thursday but there isn’t an obvious concern to me anyway. $25 to the ACLU if the Patriots don’t cover. Charity bet. Feel free to not take the other side of it… or do and let me know which charity you’d want me to make a small donation to.
 
NJ_Sox_Fan

NJ_Sox_Fan

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If I’m the Pats I am resting Harris and just letting Stevenson pound his way through this weak Falcons D
 
ShaneTrot

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Conigliaro's Potential said:
Atlanta is 32nd in DVOA, 32nd in Weighted DVOA, 30th in DAVE, 29th in Offensive DVOA, 31st in Defensive DVOA and 32nd in Special Teams DVOA.

I don't think you guys have anything to worry about.
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Then how are they 4-5? I would expect these numbers for the bottom dwellers. Atlanta has been a surprisingly competent team while sporting such ugly statistical measures.
 
BusRaker

BusRaker

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Aug 11, 2006
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Victories by 3,7, 2 and 2 versus loses by 26,23, 4, 6, and 40 can screw with your team stats

edit: and NEP have the second highest point differential in the entire NFL (tied with AZ). This is a team on a roll since Dallas and it's been fun to watch
 
M

Mr. Littlejeans

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During BB's press conference today, a reporter brought up the Pats v. Falcons game from years ago in which two Pats defenders regularly jammed Tony Gonzales at the LoS, preventing him from running a route. BB mentioned that "we can't do that anymore." To what rule is he referring?
 
Conigliaro's Potential

Conigliaro's Potential

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ShaneTrot said:
Then how are they 4-5? I would expect these numbers for the bottom dwellers. Atlanta has been a surprisingly competent team while sporting such ugly statistical measures.
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Have you seen who the Falcons have defeated this year? Saints (without their starting QB), Dolphins, Jets and Giants ain't exactly a murderer's row. And they lost by 26 to the Eagles.
 
S

Soxy

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Mr. Littlejeans said:
During BB's press conference today, a reporter brought up the Pats v. Falcons game from years ago in which two Pats defenders regularly jammed Tony Gonzales at the LoS, preventing him from running a route. BB mentioned that "we can't do that anymore." To what rule is he referring?
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There was a rule change a few years ago that made it so receivers running routes are considered defenseless. Defenses used to be able to pound on route runners with impunity within the 5 yard chuck area, but they got rid of that.
 
Saints Rest

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Soxy said:
There was a rule change a few years ago that made it so receivers running routes are considered defenseless. Defenses used to be able to pound on route runners with impunity within the 5 yard chuck area, but they got rid of that.
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But could a team double-team a guy right at the LOS? IOW, is the rule about the double-team? Or about how hard they can be hit? Or something else?
 
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Soxy

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Saints Rest said:
But could a team double-team a guy right at the LOS? IOW, is the rule about the double-team? Or about how hard they can be hit? Or something else?
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The rule I'm thinking of involves contact. You can't maul the guy at the LOS like you used to be able to, and like they were doing against Gonzalez there. I don't think there's anything to stop a team from doubling whoever they want to double.

If that's from the game I'm thinking of, Gonzalez was absolutely murdering the Pats, which led to the eventual (and comical) mauling. It's not like they entered the game with that as their chief strategy. It was more an act of desperation than anything.
 
biff_hardbody

biff_hardbody

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Apr 27, 2016
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Dogman said:
Ok. That is valid. Now, why are you nervous? What do the Falcons do that makes you feel this way? Is it the short week? Are you worried about a bit of rookie season mistakes/regression from Mac? Do you feel the NE Defense won't be prepared? If so, why?
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Not the original poster but wanted to jump off from here: This Patriots team is only 5 weeks removed from needing a 13 point second half comeback to beat Davis Mills and the Texans and avoid going 1-4. Their recent success and growth - which I am very happy to see - has caused fans and the media to, imo, prematurely discuss them as if they were Brady Patriots , i.e. guaranteed to beat a team like this Falcons team. This Patriots team isn't good enough to count any team as a guaranteed win (except the Jets) and the amount of fans/media saying there is no way the Falcons win this game is cause for concern.

As to the technical aspects of why and how they could lose this game, I think the formula is they get down early, struggle to move the ball, turn the ball over, and fail to stop the Falcons from moving the ball. Matt Ryan is a better quarterback from Davis Mills and I would not be shocked to see him have some success against this Patriots secondary. Atlanta may be able to take advantage of Bentley and Hightower if they can get their running backs in space.

All of this being said, I think the Patriots will be prepared and likely win, but also believe this will be a difficult and close game.
 
johnmd20

johnmd20

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johnmd20 said:
The biggest reason for concern is the fact that the Falcons were absolutely humiliated last Sunday. That was a Harlem Globetrotters style beatdown versus the Washington Generals. I would expect them to be coming out with a fervor. But the Pats are 7 point favorites on the road for a reason.

This Atlanta team isn't great. It can sometimes be good. Pats will win by 15 to 20 and Ryan will look old and slow.
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Man, CRUSHED this call.
 
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