Pats Roster Planning: Offense

lexrageorge

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Ugh, getting a serious Pedroia vibe about JE. The end seems to be approaching sooner than I would like.
He missed the rest of the season after what was described as a minor knee procedure. WR's having an effective season at age 35 is by far the exception.

It's unfortunate, but definitely not surprising either.

I would not keep Edelman on this roster this year. Bill needs to have that conversation now with him. He is cooked and the Patriots need to go younger at the slot position. Great run by Edelman but he needs to hang them up before more serious injury.
Right now, he's on a 90-man roster. The likely outcome is Active-PUP at the start of camp, transition to Reserve PUP when the season begins, transfer to IR after Week whatever, then a retirement in the subsequent offseason. Doesn't require a roster spot.
 

Shelterdog

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He missed the rest of the season after what was described as a minor knee procedure. WR's having an effective season at age 35 is by far the exception.

It's unfortunate, but definitely not surprising either.


Right now, he's on a 90-man roster. The likely outcome is Active-PUP at the start of camp, transition to Reserve PUP when the season begins, transfer to IR after Week whatever, then a retirement in the subsequent offseason. Doesn't require a roster spot.
I can't remember the rules but he's presumably allowed to be in a variety of meetings (even if he can't participate in practice) when on these lists, right? Might be a plus at this stage of his career.
 

JM3

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I think an Edelman trade to the Bucs makes a lot of sense...

1) They haven't re-signed AB & nothing appears imminent on that front.

2) Brady likes him.

3) Nice weather in FL should be more gentle on his knees.

4) Bucs have some depth behind Evans/Godwin including Scotty Miller & Tyler Johnson, so he could take time here & there to stay as healthy as possible.

5) Bucs should also comfortably make playoffs so they can manage his snaps etc.

6) Trading Edelman, who is in the last year of his deal, would cost the Patriots $2.7m in dead money, but allow them to move off $3.4m. His $3.4m cost to the Bucs isn't unreasonable.

7) Draft pick compensation should be minor due to age/health/probable lack of suitors, but I think the Bucs should be willing to offer the most.

8)

Bucs get:
Julian Edelman
2022 Raiders 7th round pick (acquired in Trent Brown trade)

Patriots get:
2022 Bucs 5th round pick, which bumps to a 4th if JE plays 8+ games including playoffs.
 

lexrageorge

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I can't remember the rules but he's presumably allowed to be in a variety of meetings (even if he can't participate in practice) when on these lists, right? Might be a plus at this stage of his career.
Yes, that is correct. Players on PUP/IR can go to team meetings and watch games from the sidelines. They can use team facilities for their rehab, and work out on their own. Sometimes, the active/PUP players will work out as a group on a different practice field during training camp, but that normally involves stretching, jogging, etc.

Then there's the stuff that all teams do yet keep hidden and is left unreported anyway. I have no idea what that stuff is, but I recall a brouhaha several years ago about a former Pats player mentioning how they did sometimes secretly work out with the varsity despite being on IR, and how nearly every team does it.

I think an Edelman trade to the Bucs makes a lot of sense...

1) They haven't re-signed AB & nothing appears imminent on that front.

2) Brady likes him.

3) Nice weather in FL should be more gentle on his knees.

4) Bucs have some depth behind Evans/Godwin including Scotty Miller & Tyler Johnson, so he could take time here & there to stay as healthy as possible.

5) Bucs should also comfortably make playoffs so they can manage his snaps etc.

6) Trading Edelman, who is in the last year of his deal, would cost the Patriots $2.7m in dead money, but allow them to move off $3.4m. His $3.4m cost to the Bucs isn't unreasonable.

7) Draft pick compensation should be minor due to age/health/probable lack of suitors, but I think the Bucs should be willing to offer the most.

8)

Bucs get:
Julian Edelman
2022 Raiders 7th round pick (acquired in Trent Brown trade)

Patriots get:
2022 Bucs 5th round pick, which bumps to a 4th if JE plays 8+ games including playoffs.
I doubt he would pass the physical, and there are rules about trading injured players.

EDIT: Forgot that the NFL changed the rules a couple of years ago.
 

JM3

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Pre-edit I was going to ask about the Kiko Alonso trade to Eagles 8 months after ACL tear & say I assume it's up to the team/their doctors what level of injury risk & status of previous injury they're willing to take on.
 
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I understand that JE11 may not play at all this year, or ever, but I’m not sure why this story took off so much today, and was met with such breathlessness. Wasn't it looking more and more likely that he'd start the year on the PUP list? I feel like that was pretty clear weeks ago.
 

DJnVa

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I understand that JE11 may not play at all this year, or ever, but I’m not sure why this story took off so much today, and was met with such breathlessness. Wasn't it looking more and more likely that he'd start the year on the PUP list? I feel like that was pretty clear weeks ago.
It took off because a major Boston writer wrote a story about it. I don't think it was breaking news because, you're right, everyone kind of thought that. But we're a bit of a dead period between FA and draft, so it was something to talk about.
 

Saints Rest

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I think an Edelman trade to the Bucs makes a lot of sense...

1) They haven't re-signed AB & nothing appears imminent on that front.

2) Brady likes him.

3) Nice weather in FL should be more gentle on his knees.

4) Bucs have some depth behind Evans/Godwin including Scotty Miller & Tyler Johnson, so he could take time here & there to stay as healthy as possible.

5) Bucs should also comfortably make playoffs so they can manage his snaps etc.

6) Trading Edelman, who is in the last year of his deal, would cost the Patriots $2.7m in dead money, but allow them to move off $3.4m. His $3.4m cost to the Bucs isn't unreasonable.

7) Draft pick compensation should be minor due to age/health/probable lack of suitors, but I think the Bucs should be willing to offer the most.

8)

Bucs get:
Julian Edelman
2022 Raiders 7th round pick (acquired in Trent Brown trade)

Patriots get:
2022 Bucs 5th round pick, which bumps to a 4th if JE plays 8+ games including playoffs.
I might see this but bumping the return down a round on each side (thus a 6th that could bump to a 5th). I just don’t see much value in JE
 

JM3

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I might see this but bumping the return down a round on each side (thus a 6th that could bump to a 5th). I just don’t see much value in JE
If we're haggling prices, can I interest you in a Texans 2022 7th instead & keep the current 4th/5th structure?

But yeah, you're probably right depending on just how jacked his knee is. Bucs expect to be picking late in the round, though, so it's a bit less of a move down than it appears on paper.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Yes, that is correct. Players on PUP/IR can go to team meetings and watch games from the sidelines. They can use team facilities for their rehab, and work out on their own. Sometimes, the active/PUP players will work out as a group on a different practice field during training camp, but that normally involves stretching, jogging, etc.

Then there's the stuff that all teams do yet keep hidden and is left unreported anyway. I have no idea what that stuff is, but I recall a brouhaha several years ago about a former Pats player mentioning how they did sometimes secretly work out with the varsity despite being on IR, and how nearly every team does it.


I doubt he would pass the physical, and there are rules about trading injured players.

EDIT: Forgot that the NFL changed the rules a couple of years ago.
I think it was Ted Johnson who said it, FWIW. He and that Pats didn't have the best of separations, but the relationship seems to have mellowed over time.
 

lexrageorge

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I think it was Ted Johnson who said it, FWIW. He and that Pats didn't have the best of separations, but the relationship seems to have mellowed over time.
I thought it was initially a punter who went on IR. In any event, the player did not seem to think it all that unusual. Nothing came of it, IIRC, so my assumption is that it's one of those things where the league looks away unless something pretty egregious is going on.
 

Harry Hooper

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I think it was Ted Johnson who said it, FWIW. He and that Pats didn't have the best of separations, but the relationship seems to have mellowed over time.
I am pretty sure that one of Matt Walsh's big revelations to the Commish was that the Pats had included a player on IR in practices.
 

Jimbodandy

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I would not keep Edelman on this roster this year. Bill needs to have that conversation now with him. He is cooked and the Patriots need to go younger at the slot position. Great run by Edelman but he needs to hang them up before more serious injury.
Can't help thinking that the knee is doing his head a favor.

You won't see a bigger competitive spirit. That can be a bad thing too.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I know they need a QB for the future, and if they trade up it would be for a QB, but I really wish they could grab one of the top (3) WR in the draft. It still kills me the Pats could have had DK Metcalf.
 

tims4wins

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The Edelman retirement kind of reiterated to me the need for a WR in this draft. Absent a trade up for a QB, I think I'd prefer the Pats to actually trade down, pick up an additional second rounder, and then use their first rounder + two second rounders on some combination of OL / front 7 / WR / CB, using their later capital (96, 120, 122, 139, 177, 188) to maneuver around the board in the 2nd round as they see fit. Would be amazing to come out of the draft with Toney or one of the Moores, as well as a CB or OT.
 

ehaz

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I'd love Bateman or Elijah Moore if they don't trade up for a QB and end up trading down. Toney strikes me as a risky gadget player.
 

SMU_Sox

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They had it narrowed down to Harry, AJ Brown, and Deebo Samuel. Then Bill went with the guy who interviewed best and whose coach he knew. Sometimes it works out. Other times it doesn’t. We can safely file this under it didn’t work out. I hope they trade him for a day 3 pick as I’m not sure he is worthy of a roster spot. I know he was getting better last year in flashes so maybe he’s worth one more lookin camp.
 

jsinger121

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They had it narrowed down to Harry, AJ Brown, and Deebo Samuel. Then Bill went with the guy who interviewed best and whose coach he knew. Sometimes it works out. Other times it doesn’t. We can safely file this under it didn’t work out. I hope they trade him for a day 3 pick as I’m not sure he is worthy of a roster spot. I know he was getting better last year in flashes so maybe he’s worth one more lookin camp.
Would you do a Harry for Andy Isabella trade. Your crap for Arizona’s crap?
 

SMU_Sox

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Would you do a Harry for Andy Isabella trade. Your crap for Arizona’s crap?
I might. Andy has 413 yards receiving vs Harry's 414. Isabella has a better athletic profile but Harry has better size. Neither really move the needle for me. WR is a tough position to project from college. They both look like they suck at this point. Maybe a change of scenery would help. It might also mean jack shit. Quick edit: I didn't like Andy Isabella or N'Keal Harry coming out.
 

E5 Yaz

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Cordarrelle Patterson is still a free agent. As a swiss army knife piece, it could be worth a shot
 

Fisks Of Fury

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Cordarrelle Patterson is still a free agent. As a swiss army knife piece, it could be worth a shot
Hell, I'd be happy to see him back just to see him during warmups tossing the ball to people (mostly kids) sitting out in the stands and having them throw it back to him.
 

Saints Rest

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I found this to be an even more insightful point, backed up with data, not speculation:
A minor screed about receivers. Not saying it’ll happen with three big stars this year, but NFL teams over-draft wideouts. Badly. In a year when three wide receivers could go in the top 10 (last time that happened: Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross going 5-7-9 in 2017, and boy did that not age well), I bring you information that should show that in the age of deep receivers drafts, you’re fine waiting for one. In the last five drafts, 17 wideouts have gone in first rounds, with 26 second-rounders. Breaking it down by production in an average season shows second-rounders have been close to the production level of the top picks.

Average season of all 1st-round wide receivers drafted since 2016: 42.3 receptions, 600.5 yards, 14.2 yards per catch.

Average season of all 2nd-round wide receivers drafted since 2016: 42.5 receptions, 538.7 yards, 12.7 yards per catch.

Pretty close. My top three wideouts taken in round one since 2016: Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, CeeDee Lamb. Top three second-rounders since 2017: Michael Thomas, D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown. Six very good players right there. My feeling is the second-rounders, in total, are better. I’m not trying to say any of the top receivers won’t be good pros, although history says at least one won’t be. I’m trying to say when Metcalf goes 64 and JuJu Smith-Schuster 62, Tyler Boyd 55, and Michael Thomas 47, maybe the conversation in the draft room should be: We’ll get a good one in round two or three. Let’s solve bigger problems elsewhere early.
Greenie on ESPN has been harping on this all week as well. According to his data, OT is the position that has the best success young 1st rounders; WR the worst. Now he is using "signed a second contract with original team" as his yardstick, which has its issues, I think, but it's worth considering.
 

EL Jeffe

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I considered starting a new thread but this probably goes here as well as anywhere. And that's what NE's offense is going to look like moving forward.

@SMU_Sox likes to refer to NE's offense as Bully Ball, and adding Jonnu & Henry lends credence to that philosophy. But I'm not convinced that Bully Ball is their ultimate goal; I keep coming back to a quote I read about Devonta Smith's weight, and it was to the effect that his weight didn't really matter anymore because the NFL has turned into a 7-on-7 league and guys don't take the big hits like they used to. And there's some truth there (some, I don't 100% agree with either premise though). KC's offense certainly looks like 7-on-7 football much of the time, and it's a copy cat league--get a bunch of fast guys in space and attack vertically and horizontally to stretch the defense as much as possible.

I think NE wants to run base 12 personnel, with the flexibility for it to transform into 12, 11 or 10 on the fly based on the defensive personnel. You can do that when you have TEs like Jonnu & Henry who can catch, run, and block. Their skill players allow them to play Bully Ball with 12, and then without any substituting, they can turn it into a 10 look without missing a beat. I think they want to be able to make a game feel like both 9-on-7 AND/OR 7-on-7 game. To do that, obviously you need the versatile TEs, but you also need the RBs (which I think they have) and a QB who can do the 7-on-7 stuff-- which relies on diagnosing matchups, finding the leverage, making quick decisions, and getting the ball out on time and accurately. It also takes QBs who are comfortable under center, play action with their backs turned, and shotgun. I think Mac does all those things well, where maybe a guy like Cam can do some of them but they're aren't really his strengths. (last year felt like a team trying to play 9-on-7, but they didn't have the pieces to throw when the run game stalled).

I also kind of come back the SF game this past year, where SF just rolled NE. To me, SF's game plan is sort of the blueprint of what I think NE would like to be able to do to people. SF could bully with Kittle and Juszcyk, but also keep them on the field and still really stretch NE in the passing game or on jet sweeps and tear screens. I think NE has a lot of those type of personnel pieces now, although I'd still like to a RAC WR (a Moore or Eskridge type), or a down the field, go get it WR (which maaaybe Harry could be, or possibly a guy like Seth Williams or Jacob Harris). But I think getting the QB in Mac to fit this scheme was a pretty big step, and I'm looking forward to the versatility they'll have going forward.
 

cournoyer

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I considered starting a new thread but this probably goes here as well as anywhere. And that's what NE's offense is going to look like moving forward.

@SMU_Sox likes to refer to NE's offense as Bully Ball, and adding Jonnu & Henry lends credence to that philosophy. But I'm not convinced that Bully Ball is their ultimate goal; I keep coming back to a quote I read about Devonta Smith's weight, and it was to the effect that his weight didn't really matter anymore because the NFL has turned into a 7-on-7 league and guys don't take the big hits like they used to. And there's some truth there (some, I don't 100% agree with either premise though). KC's offense certainly looks like 7-on-7 football much of the time, and it's a copy cat league--get a bunch of fast guys in space and attack vertically and horizontally to stretch the defense as much as possible.

I think NE wants to run base 12 personnel, with the flexibility for it to transform into 12, 11 or 10 on the fly based on the defensive personnel. You can do that when you have TEs like Jonnu & Henry who can catch, run, and block. Their skill players allow them to play Bully Ball with 12, and then without any substituting, they can turn it into a 10 look without missing a beat. I think they want to be able to make a game feel like both 9-on-7 AND/OR 7-on-7 game. To do that, obviously you need the versatile TEs, but you also need the RBs (which I think they have) and a QB who can do the 7-on-7 stuff-- which relies on diagnosing matchups, finding the leverage, making quick decisions, and getting the ball out on time and accurately. It also takes QBs who are comfortable under center, play action with their backs turned, and shotgun. I think Mac does all those things well, where maybe a guy like Cam can do some of them but they're aren't really his strengths. (last year felt like a team trying to play 9-on-7, but they didn't have the pieces to throw when the run game stalled).

I also kind of come back the SF game this past year, where SF just rolled NE. To me, SF's game plan is sort of the blueprint of what I think NE would like to be able to do to people. SF could bully with Kittle and Juszcyk, but also keep them on the field and still really stretch NE in the passing game or on jet sweeps and tear screens. I think NE has a lot of those type of personnel pieces now, although I'd still like to a RAC WR (a Moore or Eskridge type), or a down the field, go get it WR (which maaaybe Harry could be, or possibly a guy like Seth Williams or Jacob Harris). But I think getting the QB in Mac to fit this scheme was a pretty big step, and I'm looking forward to the versatility they'll have going forward.
Really nice write up, I think you're absolutely correct. This team is primed for the type of fluid offense that SF runs, and with the weapons upgrade I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Cam that can actually run that type of offense even if BB isn't convinced Mac is ready or whatever the deal ends up being there. My question for you since I have your ear is about Harry. Are there people who truly believe he can be a legit "go get it" WR? I'm not sure I see it. I think we maybe saw flashes over the last couple years, but his style seems to me like a mix of Deion Branch light and Dez Bryant light. Not crisp enough to run Deion's routes but not aggressive enough to run Dez's and be that over the top guy. His hands are fine (2nd in drop rate to Meyers) but I'm curious maybe what you see from this guy. Feels like the year to move on to me.
 

EL Jeffe

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My question for you since I have your ear is about Harry. Are there people who truly believe he can be a legit "go get it" WR? I'm not sure I see it. I think we maybe saw flashes over the last couple years, but his style seems to me like a mix of Deion Branch light and Dez Bryant light. Not crisp enough to run Deion's routes but not aggressive enough to run Dez's and be that over the top guy. His hands are fine (2nd in drop rate to Meyers) but I'm curious maybe what you see from this guy. Feels like the year to move on to me.
It's probably time to move on from Harry. I was never a Harry fan when I did the pre-draft work on him, but that's water under the bridge. It costs them money to move on, but it may be worth it. I guess the optimistic view is his rookie year was an injury washout and last year was just an all-around passing disaster (outside of Meyers), so maybe there hasn't been a clean evaluation. He's big, he can be physical, he's had a handful of plays where he's looked like what they hoped he'd be. But I think mainly he does't get off the line well, his play speed is marginal, and he doesn't separate at the top of his routes. That's a tough three strikes for a receiver to overcome. Dez didn't have great play speed either, but he was more explosive off the line and at the top of his routes. I know Harry tried going to the footwork coach last summer, but...yeah. Not a whole lot of difference in the before and after.

They're loaded with 2nd level targets in Jonnu, Henry, Bourne, and Meyers. I think all four of those guys can do some X receiver type responsibilities and be volume catchers. Agholor can stretch the field from the slot or z, but having a traditional Z threat would be nice (but also one with size, for the physical 9-on-7 concepts). But I'd also be happy enough for a smaller RAC Z receiver too, and this draft has a handful of those.
 

cournoyer

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It's probably time to move on from Harry. I was never a Harry fan when I did the pre-draft work on him, but that's water under the bridge. It costs them money to move on, but it may be worth it. I guess the optimistic view is his rookie year was an injury washout and last year was just an all-around passing disaster (outside of Meyers), so maybe there hasn't been a clean evaluation. He's big, he can be physical, he's had a handful of plays where he's looked like what they hoped he'd be. But I think mainly he does't get off the line well, his play speed is marginal, and he doesn't separate at the top of his routes. That's a tough three strikes for a receiver to overcome. Dez didn't have great play speed either, but he was more explosive off the line and at the top of his routes. I know Harry tried going to the footwork coach last summer, but...yeah. Not a whole lot of difference in the before and after.

They're loaded with 2nd level targets in Jonnu, Henry, Bourne, and Meyers. I think all four of those guys can do some X receiver type responsibilities and be volume catchers. Agholor can stretch the field from the slot or z, but having a traditional Z threat would be nice (but also one with size, for the physical 9-on-7 concepts). But I'd also be happy enough for a smaller RAC Z receiver too, and this draft has a handful of those.
Thanks for the response. I'm an optimist by nature so I get where you're coming from if the team decides to give him one more year, training camp will certainly be a deciding factor. The eye-test in live game action with Harry last year was rough, and those three strikes really do show up. Despite the disaster that the passing game was at times, at least you could point to bright spots from Meyers/Byrd/Edelman throughout the season. Really curious to see where they go there this weekend because that should give us a closer idea as to how they want to dictate gameplay moving forward since they already have those weapons you mentioned.
 

tims4wins

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5th year option deadline is tomorrow. Wynn would be $10.4M; Sony would be $4.5M. Guessing they pick up Wynn but not Sony. Unless they can negotiate a longer term deal with Wynn to reduce that hit. Not sure he is worth $10M. Needs to prove he can stay healthy.
 

BaseballJones

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5th year option deadline is tomorrow. Wynn would be $10.4M; Sony would be $4.5M. Guessing they pick up Wynn but not Sony. Unless they can negotiate a longer term deal with Wynn to reduce that hit. Not sure he is worth $10M. Needs to prove he can stay healthy.
That's exactly what I'd do. Not pick up Sony, but extend Wynn. He's a good player, but you're right about his health. I wouldn't cut bait with Harry yet. I really want this guy to succeed. Maybe I'm irrational at this point but oh well.
 

tims4wins

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That's exactly what I'd do. Not pick up Sony, but extend Wynn. He's a good player, but you're right about his health. I wouldn't cut bait with Harry yet. I really want this guy to succeed. Maybe I'm irrational at this point but oh well.
Pats Picker has been updated - they are going to have to trade and/or cut some guys with talent. It's tough getting to 53.
 

Bowser

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That's exactly what I'd do. Not pick up Sony, but extend Wynn. He's a good player, but you're right about his health. I wouldn't cut bait with Harry yet. I really want this guy to succeed. Maybe I'm irrational at this point but oh well.
Agreed. Harry's an asset if the Pats want to run it down people's throats. Seems like one of the few things he does well is run block.
 

koufax32

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Agreed. Harry's an asset if the Pats want to run it down people's throats. Seems like one of the few things he does well is run block.
Yeah but he’s the 4th outfielder who can steal a bunch of bases but has an OBP of .276.