Pats QB options in 2021

simplyeric

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Bill is not gonna build the team in a way that fucks over his successor in order to grind out a few more wins.
If it's the difference between 10 wins and a full off-season, and 11 wins with a chance at a playoff run, BB and Kraft might be inclined to take a longer-term hit for a few more wins. Not full "fuck over the successor" mode, but still...they're not going to pass on a few more wins in 2021/2022 so that his successor can win a few more in 2025.
Why would they be in a better position next year? Is next year’s QB draft class that much deeper? If they bring back Cam or end up with Fitzmagic, Winston, Mariotta, whatever, they’re likely going to win 6-8 games again and be in the same draft range. I think BB is too good of a coach, and able to build a good enough roster, that they’re not going to be a bottom 5 team.
Cam has been a dumpster fire, and they are a 6/7 win team right now. With some improvement just at QB they could get to 9/10, and if they do it well and bolster the supporting cast they could get into the playoffs, even win the division, no?
throws to more weapons than the French Army.
This is great. I've never heard it before, in any context. I'm not even sure I get it. I think of the French as surrendering, or being decimated on a long slow march back home...not being loaded with weapons...?
 

Zincman

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If it's the difference between 10 wins and a full off-season, and 11 wins with a chance at a playoff run, BB and Kraft might be inclined to take a longer-term hit for a few more wins. Not full "fuck over the successor" mode, but still...they're not going to pass on a few more wins in 2021/2022 so that his successor can win a few more in 2025.

Cam has been a dumpster fire, and they are a 6/7 win team right now. With some improvement just at QB they could get to 9/10, and if they do it well and bolster the supporting cast they could get into the playoffs, even win the division, no?

This is great. I've never heard it before, in any context. I'm not even sure I get it. I think of the French as surrendering, or being decimated on a long slow march back home...not being loaded with weapons...?
Stream of consciousness, I'm afraid. Wehrmacht seemed like overkill. Gurkhas seemed too obscure. Viking Berserkers might have been a good choice as well as Mongol Horde but I settled on the La Grande Armee of Napoleon. I have way too much time on my hands
 
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simplyeric

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Stream of consciousness, I'm afraid. Wehrmacht seemed like overkill. Gurkhas seemed too obscure. Viking Berserkers might have been a good choice as well as Mongol Horde but I settled on the La Grande Armee of Napoleon. I have way too much time on my hands
Ah gotcha. It kinda rolls though.
mid you were going for diversity of weapons however, I would have gone with the good old American military. Maybe the navy, just to make it confusing.
The Grand Armee works though. I might have gone with a Prussian army, just because I like to refer to Prussians.
 

Zincman

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Ah gotcha. It kinda rolls though.
mid you were going for diversity of weapons however, I would have gone with the good old American military. Maybe the navy, just to make it confusing.
The Grand Armee works though. I might have gone with a Prussian army, just because I like to refer to Prussians.
Who doesn't?
 

Beomoose

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If it's the difference between 10 wins and a full off-season, and 11 wins with a chance at a playoff run, BB and Kraft might be inclined to take a longer-term hit for a few more wins. Not full "fuck over the successor" mode, but still...they're not going to pass on a few more wins in 2021/2022 so that his successor can win a few more in 2025.
Even without consideration to a successor either way, I still I don't see Bill as a guy to build a team that has "a chance of a playoff run" for a year or two at this point. If he's looking to get out soon, a couple more early postseason exits don't seem like the way for the Best Coach in History to leave. similarly, if he's still planning to still be coaching at The Blade in 2025+, I think he wants to be helming a regular contender.
 

simplyeric

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Even without consideration to a successor either way, I still I don't see Bill as a guy to build a team that has "a chance of a playoff run" for a year or two at this point. If he's looking to get out soon, a couple more early postseason exits don't seem like the way for the Best Coach in History to leave. similarly, if he's still planning to still be coaching at The Blade in 2025+, I think he wants to be helming a regular contender.
Maybe.
he just admitted earlier this season that they did some stuff in previous seasons that are hamstringing them now.
im not saying he’ll shit on the coats for a few extra regular season wins. I’m saying he’ll make strategic moves for a few extra wins in the season, I.e. post-season wins.
I bet he thinks that with the right Grand Armee and a good D he could ride Fitzmagic (for example) to a division win, and from there you know he thinks he can have a shot at the big game.
 

Super Nomario

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Cam has been a dumpster fire, and they are a 6/7 win team right now. With some improvement just at QB they could get to 9/10, and if they do it well and bolster the supporting cast they could get into the playoffs, even win the division, no?
A good portion of Cam being a dumpster fire is that any QB would be a dumpster fire with this supporting cast. Brady wasn't much better down the stretch in 2019. Improving by three wins is going to take a lot more of a team effort.
 

rodderick

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A good portion of Cam being a dumpster fire is that any QB would be a dumpster fire with this supporting cast. Brady wasn't much better down the stretch in 2019. Improving by three wins is going to take a lot more of a team effort.
Yup. They have nothing on offense, it's kind of ridiculous really. I don't even think you'd be able to properly evaluate a young QB with this supporting cast, which is one of my concerns for 2021 if they don't go the veteran route.
 

Harry Hooper

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Maybe.
he just admitted earlier this season that they did some stuff in previous seasons that are hamstringing them now.
im not saying he’ll shit on the coats for a few extra regular season wins. I’m saying he’ll make strategic moves for a few extra wins in the season, I.e. post-season wins.
I bet he thinks that with the right Grand Armee and a good D he could ride Fitzmagic (for example) to a division win, and from there you know he thinks he can have a shot at the big game.
You can't take everything BB puts out there as unadulterated truth. His comments to Weis exaggerated both the extent of the sellout and how much playing time was now going to the young players.

This defense needs to add 2 DLs, at least 2 LBs, and another starting CB since Gilmore is not playing on his existing deal. He's likely either getting traded or coming back for the minimum participation to get to free agency at the end of the 2021 season.

On offense they need to add a viable QB, at least one legit NFL TE, and a pair of starting WRs. Barring a severe bloodletting among teams auctioning off/releasing players for salary reasons, there's a lot of gaps to be filled and little room for some dud moves. The three other teams in the division are likely improving for 2021 as well. Winning the division next year would be quite an achievement. Even losing the division title on a tiebreaker would be quite an achievement.
 
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simplyeric

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@Harry Hooper @rodderick @Super Nomario
Ok that’s different story then.
They are a 6-7 win team. If a better QB can get them to 9-10 and no more, the yeah I agree that BB isn’t going to sell out future seasons for that.
With some improvement just at QB they could get to 9/10, and if they do it well and bolster the supporting cast they could get into the playoffs, even win the division, no?
If you guys are right and the whole thing is a rebuild, then yeah, BB isn’t likely to trade ‘just missing the playoffs’ for future seasons.
but if a QB amd some supporting cast will give them a shot, he and Kraft might do it.
as compared to a conscious decision to not make a run at it, while banking draft picks for an uncertain future (Since QB acquisition by draft or trade is always uncertain)
 

Zincman

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I took a look at QB's drafted in the first 2 rounds over the last 8 years. You can reach some interesting conclusions

Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick
2012 Andrew Luck 1 2013 E.J. Manuel 16 2014 Blake Bortles 3
Robert Griffin III 2 Geno Smith 40 Johnny Manziel 22
Ryan Tannehill 8 Teddy Bridewater 32
Branden Weeden 22 Derek Carr 36
Brock Osweiler 57 Jimmy Garropolo 62
Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick
2015 Jameis Winston 1 2016 Jared Goff 1 2017 Mitch Trubisky 2
Marcus Mariota 2 Carson Wentz 2 Patrick Mahomes 10
Paxton Lynch 26 DeShon Kizer 52
Chris Hackenberg 52
Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick
2018 Baker Mayfield 1 2019 Kyle Murray 1 2020 Joe Burrow 1
Sam Darnold 3 Daniel Jones 6 Tua Tagliavoa 5
Josh Allen 7 Dwayne Haskins 15 Justin Herbert 6
Lamar Jackson 32 Drew Lock 42 Kyle Love 26
Jaylen Hurts 53


If you want to get a franchise QB, do you have have a fairly high draft pick? It seems so. None of the 2nd round selections have managed to have any significant impact with the exception of Jimmy G and that jury is still out. Indeed the QBs that have had significant success (Luck, Mayfield, Tannehill, Allen, Mahomes, ) have all been picked inside the top 10. Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson are slight outliers at 32 and 36.

If you have a top pick does that insure you'll likely get a franchise QB? Doesn't seem that way. The bust % is very high considering the capital spent. Branden Weeden, EJ Manuel, RG III and Blake Bortles must haunt their draft rooms.

Looking good are Herbert, Tua, Murray, but time will tell.

The Pats aren't getting into the top 5 unless they mortgage their future and that risk is enhanced by the likelihood that there is great bust potential even in that rarified atmosphere. Do you want to go all in on Trey Lance when the needs of this roster are so multiple. I don't. I just don't see BB rebuilding in this fashion. Rather, I expect him to trade down the board frequently to acquire as many assets as possible, giving him a chance to take multiple swings in a WR rich draft and to draft more than one LB. Lots to fix here and you cant do that by taking a expensive flyer.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Why are we ignoring Dak, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson by limiting the pool to first and second rounders?

Anyways, I think you are correct that the Pats are likely to accumulate more picks given their various needs and the proven benefit of having as many lottery tickets as is possible. I’m sure it will frustrate the hell out of some (many?) if he trades down, and probably inspire tired, off base jokes about him drafting long snappers or guys from local Foxboro rec leagues, but who cares. The draft isn’t about ‘making a splash’ or taking guys Mel Kiper ranks highly to get high draft grades from Pete Prisco or Andy Benoit.
 

Zincman

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Why are we ignoring Dak, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson by limiting the pool to first and second rounders?

Anyways, I think you are correct that the Pats are likely to accumulate more picks given their various needs and the proven benefit of having as many lottery tickets as is possible. I’m sure it will frustrate the hell out of some (many?) if he trades down, and probably inspire tired, off base jokes about him drafting long snappers or guys from local Foxboro rec leagues, but who cares. The draft isn’t about ‘making a splash’ or taking guys Mel Kiper ranks highly to get high draft grades from Pete Prisco or Andy Benoit.
I didn't intend to ignore anyone. Just trying to establish a sample that shows the risks of spending significant capital on early round QBs. But hitting on mid round QBs is even more unlikely despite Brady and the examples above.

But clearly we agree on BBs likely strategy entering this rebuild
 

Saints Rest

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It seems to me that there are two approaches to grading And B draft picks:
The first is what you started, in analyzing the washout rate of first round picks, especially top 10 picks.
The second is in analyzing the draft slotting of top-tier NFL QBs.
 

Beomoose

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Why are we ignoring Dak, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson by limiting the pool to first and second rounders?

Anyways, I think you are correct that the Pats are likely to accumulate more picks given their various needs and the proven benefit of having as many lottery tickets as is possible. I’m sure it will frustrate the hell out of some (many?) if he trades down, and probably inspire tired, off base jokes about him drafting long snappers or guys from local Foxboro rec leagues, but who cares. The draft isn’t about ‘making a splash’ or taking guys Mel Kiper ranks highly to get high draft grades from Pete Prisco or Andy Benoit.
I'm not a Jets fan, I'm not gonna start sticking needles into a Bill doll if he spends all week trading down for a French army of picks. Besides, he listened when I was yelling "PICK GRONK!" at my laptop 10 years ago so I figure I we're cool. But for what it's worth, assuming Bill will just trade down because that's his rep (or because lots of holes =lots of lower-round picks) is just as foolish as treating Kiper as gospel. Bill looks for assets, and if he sees a player he wants at a price he's willing to pay he's plenty willing to go make it happen.
 

Cellar-Door

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I took a look at QB's drafted in the first 2 rounds over the last 8 years. You can reach some interesting conclusions
So I decided to look at the full 2012-2019 QB classes. I basically categorized each pick with a Y/N/? for 2 categories: Starter (was he long-term starter , borderline, or not) and Star (pretty easy, is he a top QB, possibly one, or not. I also then picked the best QB in each class.

1st round: 24 QBs selected, 11 were starter quality (i counted RG III and Teddy B here based on per-devastating injury) 5 ? quality (Darnold, Jones, Mitch, Jameis, Bortles) and 8 nos. Three no doubt stars and 3 possible stars (all but Luck recent years 2017-19)
The best QB in 5 of 8 drafts came from the 1st (and 5 straight 2015-2019)

2md round: 7 QBs selected: 2 starter quality (Carr, Jimmy G got the benefit of the doubt), 2 were ? quality (Lock, Brock Osweiller) 3 were nos. No stars. Derek Carr was the best QB in his draft

3rd round: 11 QBs selected: 1 definite starter, 3 ? starters, 1 clear star, nobody else close. However... 2 were the best QB in their class (I gave Wilson the nod over Luck, and Glennon the nod over Manuel and Smith for longevity)

4th and 5th rounds: 23 QBs selected: 2 starters, no fringe. I have Dak as a star, Cousins not, but I could be talked into him being a ?

6th, 7th round and notable UDFA (spent at least a year on a roster): 40 QBs in this group, no starters, 4 fringe guys who either were starters for most of a few seasons, or are currently starting/in competition. No stars.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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I'm not nearly qualified enough to open what I think is a significant thread, but I'll give it a whirl. Appreciate thoughts/updates from around the board -- I think this is a significant enough topic to warrant its own thread even as it's getting addressed in a bunch of others.

2021 FREE AGENTS (MULTI-YEAR STARTER POSSIBILITY)
Dak Prescott (I'll go ahead and assume he stays in Dallas)
Phillip Rivers (I'll go ahead and assume he stays in Indianapolis)
Jimmy Garoppolo (if cut by 49ers)
Mitchell Trubisky

2021 FREE AGENTS (ONE-YEAR BRIDGE / LOW CEILING)
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jacoby Brissett
Tyrod Taylor
Andy Dalton
Cam Newton
Jameis Winston
Bryan Hoyer
CJ Beathard
Nick Mullens (restricted)
Josh Rosen (exclusive restricted)
Dwayne Haskins

2021 TRADE POSSIBILITIES
Carson Wentz
Matthew Stafford
Sam Darnold
Jimmy Garoppolo
Gardner Minshew
Matt Ryan
Nick Foles
Jared Goff

AND THEN THERE'S...
Jarrett Stidham

2021 DRAFT FIRST ROUNDERS: YEAR ONE STARTER POSSIBILITIES
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Zach Wilson

2021 DRAFT FIRST ROUNDERS: PREFER SOME SEASONING, AND A BRIDGE QB
Trey Lance
Mac Jones
Kyle Trask

TEAMS THAT NEED A 2021 QB (current top picks)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1, 1-21)
New York Jets (1-2, 1-27)
Atlanta Falcons (1-4, if trade Matt Ryan)
Detroit Lions (1-7, if trade Matt Stafford)
Denver Broncos (1-10)
San Francisco 49ers (1-14, if trade Jimmy G.)
New England Patriots (1-15)
Washington Football Team (1-19)
Chicago Bears (1-20)
Los Angeles Rams (2-53, if they move on from Goff)

TEAMS THAT LIKELY NEED A QB IN 2022 (current top pick)
Indianapolis Colts (1-18)
Minnesota Vikings (1-13)
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-30)

I'll cut this off here, and will edit the lists as new (and smarter) info comes into focus. I'll start my half-assed thoughts in the next post so they can be more easily ignored!
on denver i am hearing they are sticking with lock for 2021 cant afford a big name anyway it they want miller simmoms back
 

luckiestman

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Do you guys know if Ozzie Newsome used the grading system designed by Belichick and Lombardi in Cleveland? I ask because I read that Joe Douglas uses Ozzie’s system. I assume it is the same but I’m not sure.
 

j-man

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the best choice wouild be jimmy g other than that maybe datlon i wouild say just get the best QB on the board but honestly most every position needs a upgrade ex RB K P and Maybe CB
 

j-man

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Do you guys know if Ozzie Newsome used the grading system designed by Belichick and Lombardi in Cleveland? I ask because I read that Joe Douglas uses Ozzie’s system. I assume it is the same but I’m not sure.
u need fields at 2 unlees a team offers u 3 1st to move down no lower than 7
 

luckiestman

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u need fields at 2 unlees a team offers u 3 1st to move down no lower than 7
The new coach will pick with the GM. I do not watch enough college football to have a strong opinion.

I asked about the scouting because I was reading up on Douglas. Says origins are with Ozzie so wondering if true origin was with BB. It’s long so I spoilered it.

The Jets’ new grading scale technically maxes out at 8.0, but it’s highly unusual for a prospect to ultimately earn that score. In fact, none of the evaluators who spoke to the News recalled anyone receiving that mark. For all intents and purposes, a 7.0 is the gold star in this scale.


Here are the five tiers of the grading scale that differentiate whether the prospect is a starter, backup or just a warm body:
  • Day 1 starter
  • Starting-caliber player with limitations (that might or might not be correctable)
  • Role player (aka — spot starter or significant contributor in sub packages)
  • Low-level roster player and/or practice squad
  • Training camp/preseason roster filler (aka — Camp body)

A 7.0 is reserved for elite Day 1 starters. The rest of the prospects are graded on what scouts believe the player will ultimately become in 2-3 years. It’s essentially a weighted score.


Most Day 1 prospects earn 6.7s. Although they’re penciled in as Day 1 starters, they still need to make improvements (like strength or technique) to realize their full potential.


Players that score a 6.1, 6.3, or 6.5 are typically taken in the Top 100 (aka — premium players).


Any prospect with a 5.8 or above grade is considered draftable. A 5.6 or 5.7 player would fall under the practice squad/training camp body category.

The numerical grades come with “alerts” or “types” to highlight potential hurdles.

A “Z” alert, for example, signifies an undersized prospect. So, a “6.7 Z” identifies an undersized starting-caliber talent. A “T” alert means that a player offers special teams value in addition to his offensive/defensive position.


A “M” type signifies a mental alert if a team has concerns about whether a prospect will be able to grasp nuances of the scheme. Can he learn what is being taught?


Character, or a "C" alert, plays an important — and sometimes nebulous –— role in the grading scale. A “C” alert could have multiple layers that play a part in the overall grade. Character matters, but there are always exceptions and amendments if the value becomes too great. It’s not as if Douglas only drafts choir boys.


The new model is much more targeted to your team’s makeup. Douglas has a clear sense of what he’s looking for, so expect the Jets draft board to be around 150.


Every prospect is graded on basic qualities like strength, speed, quickness and balance.


Douglas requires his scouts to give straight letter grades — A through F — for what he calls “core traits” for every prospect.


Douglas (and virtually every general manager) also ask scouts to give evaluations on position-specific traits. But how they determine the specific qualities differs.

These “Critical Factors” in Douglas’ model are guidelines that vary by position created in collaboration with the coaches. It’s an inclusive process that helps scouts better understand exactly what coaches prioritize at each position. For example, pass protection is a critical factor for a tackle, but not necessarily a center. How a cornerback plays in zone and man coverage is a critical factor.


There are no hard and fast rules on what the critical factors are each year. Instead, the system allows for flexibility to better meet the desired goal: Finding the best players to fit your scheme.


Douglas wants a 10-12 sentence synopsis highlighting a player’s pros and cons. Scouts are required to add a bottom line section laying out A) the prospect’s specific role for the Jets, B) comparisons to any players on the Jets or around the league and/or C) players that the scout has evaluated in the past
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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The new coach will pick with the GM. I do not watch enough college football to have a strong opinion.

I asked about the scouting because I was reading up on Douglas. Says origins are with Ozzie so wondering if true origin was with BB. It’s long so I spoilered it.

The Jets’ new grading scale technically maxes out at 8.0, but it’s highly unusual for a prospect to ultimately earn that score. In fact, none of the evaluators who spoke to the News recalled anyone receiving that mark. For all intents and purposes, a 7.0 is the gold star in this scale.


Here are the five tiers of the grading scale that differentiate whether the prospect is a starter, backup or just a warm body:
  • Day 1 starter
  • Starting-caliber player with limitations (that might or might not be correctable)
  • Role player (aka — spot starter or significant contributor in sub packages)
  • Low-level roster player and/or practice squad
  • Training camp/preseason roster filler (aka — Camp body)

A 7.0 is reserved for elite Day 1 starters. The rest of the prospects are graded on what scouts believe the player will ultimately become in 2-3 years. It’s essentially a weighted score.


Most Day 1 prospects earn 6.7s. Although they’re penciled in as Day 1 starters, they still need to make improvements (like strength or technique) to realize their full potential.


Players that score a 6.1, 6.3, or 6.5 are typically taken in the Top 100 (aka — premium players).


Any prospect with a 5.8 or above grade is considered draftable. A 5.6 or 5.7 player would fall under the practice squad/training camp body category.

The numerical grades come with “alerts” or “types” to highlight potential hurdles.

A “Z” alert, for example, signifies an undersized prospect. So, a “6.7 Z” identifies an undersized starting-caliber talent. A “T” alert means that a player offers special teams value in addition to his offensive/defensive position.


A “M” type signifies a mental alert if a team has concerns about whether a prospect will be able to grasp nuances of the scheme. Can he learn what is being taught?


Character, or a "C" alert, plays an important — and sometimes nebulous –— role in the grading scale. A “C” alert could have multiple layers that play a part in the overall grade. Character matters, but there are always exceptions and amendments if the value becomes too great. It’s not as if Douglas only drafts choir boys.


The new model is much more targeted to your team’s makeup. Douglas has a clear sense of what he’s looking for, so expect the Jets draft board to be around 150.


Every prospect is graded on basic qualities like strength, speed, quickness and balance.


Douglas requires his scouts to give straight letter grades — A through F — for what he calls “core traits” for every prospect.


Douglas (and virtually every general manager) also ask scouts to give evaluations on position-specific traits. But how they determine the specific qualities differs.

These “Critical Factors” in Douglas’ model are guidelines that vary by position created in collaboration with the coaches. It’s an inclusive process that helps scouts better understand exactly what coaches prioritize at each position. For example, pass protection is a critical factor for a tackle, but not necessarily a center. How a cornerback plays in zone and man coverage is a critical factor.


There are no hard and fast rules on what the critical factors are each year. Instead, the system allows for flexibility to better meet the desired goal: Finding the best players to fit your scheme.


Douglas wants a 10-12 sentence synopsis highlighting a player’s pros and cons. Scouts are required to add a bottom line section laying out A) the prospect’s specific role for the Jets, B) comparisons to any players on the Jets or around the league and/or C) players that the scout has evaluated in the past
looking at your roster u need help almost at every spot the only players i like on your off is Becton Mims Crower and other than mosley who has been a bust so far your def needs a lot of help honestly u need 2 drafts plus a few FA esp on def to win big
 

leetinsley38

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Yup. They have nothing on offense, it's kind of ridiculous really. I don't even think you'd be able to properly evaluate a young QB with this supporting cast, which is one of my concerns for 2021 if they don't go the veteran route.
Are you trying to say that’s why BB isn’t starting Stidham?
 

ZMart100

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Aug 15, 2008
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The new coach will pick with the GM. I do not watch enough college football to have a strong opinion.

I asked about the scouting because I was reading up on Douglas. Says origins are with Ozzie so wondering if true origin was with BB. It’s long so I spoilered it.

The Jets’ new grading scale technically maxes out at 8.0, but it’s highly unusual for a prospect to ultimately earn that score. In fact, none of the evaluators who spoke to the News recalled anyone receiving that mark. For all intents and purposes, a 7.0 is the gold star in this scale.


Here are the five tiers of the grading scale that differentiate whether the prospect is a starter, backup or just a warm body:
  • Day 1 starter
  • Starting-caliber player with limitations (that might or might not be correctable)
  • Role player (aka — spot starter or significant contributor in sub packages)
  • Low-level roster player and/or practice squad
  • Training camp/preseason roster filler (aka — Camp body)

A 7.0 is reserved for elite Day 1 starters. The rest of the prospects are graded on what scouts believe the player will ultimately become in 2-3 years. It’s essentially a weighted score.


Most Day 1 prospects earn 6.7s. Although they’re penciled in as Day 1 starters, they still need to make improvements (like strength or technique) to realize their full potential.


Players that score a 6.1, 6.3, or 6.5 are typically taken in the Top 100 (aka — premium players).


Any prospect with a 5.8 or above grade is considered draftable. A 5.6 or 5.7 player would fall under the practice squad/training camp body category.

The numerical grades come with “alerts” or “types” to highlight potential hurdles.

A “Z” alert, for example, signifies an undersized prospect. So, a “6.7 Z” identifies an undersized starting-caliber talent. A “T” alert means that a player offers special teams value in addition to his offensive/defensive position.


A “M” type signifies a mental alert if a team has concerns about whether a prospect will be able to grasp nuances of the scheme. Can he learn what is being taught?


Character, or a "C" alert, plays an important — and sometimes nebulous –— role in the grading scale. A “C” alert could have multiple layers that play a part in the overall grade. Character matters, but there are always exceptions and amendments if the value becomes too great. It’s not as if Douglas only drafts choir boys.


The new model is much more targeted to your team’s makeup. Douglas has a clear sense of what he’s looking for, so expect the Jets draft board to be around 150.


Every prospect is graded on basic qualities like strength, speed, quickness and balance.


Douglas requires his scouts to give straight letter grades — A through F — for what he calls “core traits” for every prospect.


Douglas (and virtually every general manager) also ask scouts to give evaluations on position-specific traits. But how they determine the specific qualities differs.

These “Critical Factors” in Douglas’ model are guidelines that vary by position created in collaboration with the coaches. It’s an inclusive process that helps scouts better understand exactly what coaches prioritize at each position. For example, pass protection is a critical factor for a tackle, but not necessarily a center. How a cornerback plays in zone and man coverage is a critical factor.


There are no hard and fast rules on what the critical factors are each year. Instead, the system allows for flexibility to better meet the desired goal: Finding the best players to fit your scheme.


Douglas wants a 10-12 sentence synopsis highlighting a player’s pros and cons. Scouts are required to add a bottom line section laying out A) the prospect’s specific role for the Jets, B) comparisons to any players on the Jets or around the league and/or C) players that the scout has evaluated in the past
That's not quite the same as the Pats system, but it shares some similarities. Here's what the Pats draft card looks like.
Lombardi also writes a bit about the principles here.
I do think the approaches share some of the same DNA though.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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According to ESPN/Mort, Wentz will request a trade and the relationship between Wentz and the Eagles is “beyond repair.”

Wentz was very bad this year, but is he “beyond repair” too or can he be unfucked?

We’ve seen him play near MVP caliber football for a regular season before and he’s only 28.
 

BaseballJones

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The Eagles are in a really tough spot, because they take a massive cap hit if Wentz is traded (spotrac has it at like $24.5m). Now, they can afford that with Hurts as the starter, because he's making rookie money, but it would be like them paying $26m or so (Wentz+Hurts) for their starting QB. Which is well within league norms for a good starter, but still...that's a lot of dead money.

Still, I expect them to deal Wentz. No idea who would trade for him at the contract he's got, so there might have to be a new contract for his new team.

It's crazy. A couple of years ago, they had a tough situation with Foles, who just won the SB, and Wentz, who was actually the starter that year before getting hurt. Now Foles is a backup (again) on another team and Wentz is a dumpster fire, and just a few years removed from their championship, neither of these guys will be on the roster.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I just pulled up Wentz's numbers to take a look and got completely boggled by the fact that he led the league in sacks taken with a whopping 50 in only 12 games. If he played a whole season that projects out to 66.5. Incredible. (Number 2 on the list was Watson with 49 in 16 games.)

I think there's enough there for someone to take a shot, but, my god, he was practically Newtonian in his ineptness. If he struggled because he was behind a bad line with a dearth of weapons then NE may not be the best landing spot for him.
 

Garshaparra

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With the Pats now locked in at #15, chances for a 1st round QB are looking grim. This NBC mock draft is bonkers though, with the first 4 picks being all QBs, including Zach Wilson going to MIA, Lance going 4th to ATL, and Mac Davis going 14th to MIN: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/2021-nfl-mock-draft-patriots-miss-out-first-round-quarterback .

FWIW, they have the Pats getting Christian Darrisaw OT. I don't see either Wilson or Lance going to those teams, but I do expect DET, CAR or SFO to pick them up.
 

BaseballJones

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With the Pats now locked in at #15, chances for a 1st round QB are looking grim. This NBC mock draft is bonkers though, with the first 4 picks being all QBs, including Zach Wilson going to MIA, Lance going 4th to ATL, and Mac Davis going 14th to MIN: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/2021-nfl-mock-draft-patriots-miss-out-first-round-quarterback .

FWIW, they have the Pats getting Christian Darrisaw OT. I don't see either Wilson or Lance going to those teams, but I do expect DET, CAR or SFO to pick them up.
That pick probably won't help the Vikings too much.

37586
 

Captaincoop

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According to ESPN/Mort, Wentz will request a trade and the relationship between Wentz and the Eagles is “beyond repair.”

Wentz was very bad this year, but is he “beyond repair” too or can he be unfucked?

We’ve seen him play near MVP caliber football for a regular season before and he’s only 28.
So much depends on what other options are available. Like, are we weighing Wentz' odds of bouncing back against Ryan Fitzpatrick and a guy from UAlbany we draft in the 6th round? Against Jimmy G? Against taking a QB at 15?

I like him over some of those and not others...
 

Shelterdog

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Maybe I'm only saying it because I'm a Stanford guy, but I'm a pretty big fan of Davis Mills--perhaps not in the first and not to start right away. He's reasonably athletic, quite accurate, 6'4, has played well in a pro style system for two years, ok arm, seems to do well making his secondary and tertiary reads. Not a ton of experience --he redshirted his freshman year and barely played behind a decent college QB (KJ Costello) before taking Costello's job and sending KJ Costello packing for mississippi state. Has had some injury problems in the past (tore an ACL in high school if I remember.) Really just a smart solid tall accurate player in the mold of maybe Matt Cassel. If you went with a veteran as a presumptive starter I'd like him with even the second round pick.
 

Captaincoop

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Maybe I'm only saying it because I'm a Stanford guy, but I'm a pretty big fan of Davis Mills--perhaps not in the first and not to start right away. He's reasonably athletic, quite accurate, 6'4, has played well in a pro style system for two years, ok arm, seems to do well making his secondary and tertiary reads. Not a ton of experience --he redshirted his freshman year and barely played behind a decent college QB (KJ Costello) before taking Costello's job and sending KJ Costello packing for mississippi state. Has had some injury problems in the past (tore an ACL in high school if I remember.) Really just a smart solid tall accurate player in the mold of maybe Matt Cassel. If you went with a veteran as a presumptive starter I'd like him with even the second round pick.
I know nothing about him, but he comes from the Blake Bortles school of guys with names that can't possibly be attached to a successful QB.
 

Cellar-Door

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According to ESPN/Mort, Wentz will request a trade and the relationship between Wentz and the Eagles is “beyond repair.”

Wentz was very bad this year, but is he “beyond repair” too or can he be unfucked?

We’ve seen him play near MVP caliber football for a regular season before and he’s only 28.
He looked broken this year.... BUT

I'm coming around to the idea that if he's fairly cheap in terms of compensation (since he's going to be expensive in terms of contract) he'd be an interesting dice roll.

To me though, I think he ends up getting traded for more than I would give up if i were the Patriots. I'd give up the 3rd round Comp and a 2022 pick conditioned on his performance, but I bet they get significantly more than that from someone.
 

Average Game James

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Based on Watson's recent comments and the potential need to rebuild, do you think dangling the Pats 1st++ could pry Deshaun from Houston?
No. He just signed an extension. Would be $67 million in dead money if they traded him. Cap considerations aside, ++ would probably need to be something like 3 or 4 more first round picks for Houston to even consider trading a 25 year old franchise QB.
 

Shelterdog

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Based on Watson's recent comments and the potential need to rebuild, do you think dangling the Pats 1st++ could pry Deshaun from Houston?
Even if Houston was a cool with a 22 million cap hit, why on earth would Houston want to rebuild without the 25 year old QB who just threw for 4800 yards 33 td to 7 picks? You're better off scrapping the entire coaching staff and front office than starting anew without him.
 

Marbleheader

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My guess is that Bill prefers a veteran that can give him a quick return to the playoffs. I don't think he wants to wait for a QB to develop.

We'll see about Jimmy G come draft night. Of course they are going to say they want him now. They're not going to hurt their perceived value on a player they might want to trade.
 
With the Pats now locked in at #15, chances for a 1st round QB are looking grim. This NBC mock draft is bonkers though, with the first 4 picks being all QBs, including Zach Wilson going to MIA, Lance going 4th to ATL, and Mac Davis going 14th to MIN: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/2021-nfl-mock-draft-patriots-miss-out-first-round-quarterback .

FWIW, they have the Pats getting Christian Darrisaw OT. I don't see either Wilson or Lance going to those teams, but I do expect DET, CAR or SFO to pick them up.
Mac Davis is not a first-round QB, but I can see Lance going to Atlanta - he's the perfect prospect to pick with Matty Ice still in position for another year or two. That said, if Sewell is available at #4, the Falcons will surely be tempted to take him and hope they can coax another good-to-great year or two out of Ryan instead behind a better offensive line. I'm just really, really glad the Falcons didn't screw everything up by winning a few too many late-season games like they have in each of the last few years and will definitely be able to take either a hotshot QB or someone like Sewell.

By the way, if you're Miami and you want to move on from Tua, what would you need to get in return for him? Would a high 2nd round pick be enough? (Asking for a friend.)
 

FL4WL3SS

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Even if Houston was a cool with a 22 million cap hit, why on earth would Houston want to rebuild without the 25 year old QB who just threw for 4800 yards 33 td to 7 picks? You're better off scrapping the entire coaching staff and front office than starting anew without him.
Sounds like Deshaun is pretty unhappy, I should have included his quote.

We just need new energy. We just need discipline. We need structure. We need a leader so we can follow that leader as players. That's what we need.
Understood on why Houston might not want to partake.
 

Garshaparra

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Feb 27, 2008
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Mac Davis is not a first-round QB, but I can see Lance going to Atlanta - he's the perfect prospect to pick with Matty Ice still in position for another year or two. That said, if Sewell is available at #4, the Falcons will surely be tempted to take him and hope they can coax another good-to-great year or two out of Ryan instead behind a better offensive line. I'm just really, really glad the Falcons didn't screw everything up by winning a few too many late-season games like they have in each of the last few years and will definitely be able to take either a hotshot QB or someone like Sewell.

By the way, if you're Miami and you want to move on from Tua, what would you need to get in return for him? Would a high 2nd round pick be enough? (Asking for a friend.)
Very much agreed. Mac Davis is a better songwriter than a QB. That's why I was so surprised to see him going to the Vikes. This doesn't seem like that great a year to risk on QB prospects, considering many of them didn't play much at all.