Pats' performance in playoffs

[amarshal2]

This isn't a thread for empty predictions. How do you think the Pats will play? Why?

I think the Pats are going to be very competitive in the post season. I have a lot of confidence in the defense and they're fairly heathy. The big injuries are Hightower, Jones, Chung, and McCourty.
-Chung and McCourty were apparently heathy enough to play today and looked ok at worst. If McCourty was at all limited in mobility today then I'd expect he'll look better in two weeks. Not much concern here.
-Hightower did not look good last week but there was no re-injury that we're aware of and with three weeks of rest he should be a lot closer to 100% for the divisional round. They'll need him to be a beast all post-season. Not much concern here.
-We don't know anything about Jones' injury. I'm not sure what to make of it. Some concern here.

To me, the defense is in good shape to be the type of unit that holds other teams scoreless for stretches and keeps the team in the game until late in the 4th quarter against everybody.

The offense is less clear to me...
-Edelman: he's been practicing for weeks and playing with Brady on the side. He missed all pre-season and he and Brady came out firing week 1. I fully expect Jules to be near 100% and make a huge difference. They should go from a below average offense to an above average offense just by adding him back into the fold.

My concern is with Vollmer, Amendola, Brady's ankle and the inability for anyone else to really step up. I was sort of excited in a weird way for Brady to be forced to work with Martin, LaFell, Chandler, and White to develop a dimension they didn't have earlier in the season. That really didn't happen (partially thanks to the o-line) and that's the biggest area of concern.
-You could argue White and you might be right but he never really elevated himself near the security blanket status we've seen with all of his predecessors. He hasn't been a guy that keys Brady get rid of it in 2 seconds so to me he's just ok.
-The rest of 'em took steps backwards. Big concern here.
-Amendola has looked really limited --and he more so than Hightower needs that knee to be 100% to be a weapon. Some concern here.
-Vollmer's injury was bad enough to require a cart very recently and he was playing mediocre to begin with. Big concern here.
-Brady's ankle - his mobility earlier this year was an added dimension this injury could jeopardize. Small concern here.
-I see no reason for the run game to improve although Jules will make the o-line better himself.

So what happens when you add Edelman back to an offense with a bunch of new small and big concerns that weren't there earlier in the season ? I don't know. I think they'll be better...certainly above average as an offense but I'm quite skeptical we'll see the juggernaut that was rolling earlier this year.

So a very good defense and a good but not great offense? I think sounds about right. To me that makes them one of the best teams in the NFL and a team that should legitimately challenge for the SB but isn't near the prohibitive favorite we got a glimpse of earlier this year.

 

[Bowhemian]

I think they really could go either way. Good or bad.

They get several players back, which will obviously help. But how well will they play as a team? I think we saw in the last 6 weeks a team that has some flaws.

-The O-line has been subpar, will having Vollmer back make a difference? They NEED a decent running game, and that starts with the O-line.

-Special teams has been unusually mediocre. They are trying pretty much anyone at punt return, Ghost has missed a couple kicks lately.

-Defensively, having Hightower back will be a big help, a fully healthy Collins will be good. Can a good pass rush take the heat off of the secondary, like it did earlier in the season?


I think overall the team is very banged up. They will need to be healthy, and stay that way in order to make a solid run at the grand prize.

 

[tims4wins]

The first drive or two of the divisional round should tell us all we need to know about the offense, especially the play calling. If they run 3 times again we're done.

 

[jsinger121]

I think they really could go either way. Good or bad.

They get several players back, which will obviously help. But how well will they play as a team? I think we saw in the last 6 weeks a team that has some flaws.

-The O-line has been subpar, will having Vollmer back make a difference? They NEED a decent running game, and that starts with the O-line.

-Special teams has been unusually mediocre. They are trying pretty much anyone at punt return, Ghost has missed a couple kicks lately.

-Defensively, having Hightower back will be a big help, a fully healthy Collins will be good. Can a good pass rush take the heat off of the secondary, like it did earlier in the season?


I think overall the team is very banged up. They will need to be healthy, and stay that way in order to make a solid run at the grand prize.

The special teams decline was the trickle down effect of the Edelman injury. Him returning and maybe sharing those duties with amendola should improve this dramatically.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I am pessimistic. And it's not merely because of the 2-4 finish. As Alex Speier points out, that itself is not a death knell. Though after hearing about the importance of finishing strong by these Patriots for years, I can't just dismiss the downward trend.

Here's the article:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/01/03/patriots-may-buck-trend-teams-who-limp-regular-season-finish-line/kbjA8NdYJQiOAFRCM6RPAJ/story.html

My negativity mainly springs from the play of the offensive line, which has been uneven or bad for weeks, and has been particularly bad since about the 20 minute mark of the Titans game. Since that time, the Pats offense did almost nothing. Vollmer's return should help but it's not as if one man, playing out of his natural position, will change everything.

But even with a healthy Vollmer (and of course, Jules), it's hard for me to see that line suddenly giving Tom enough time or opening holes for the RBs. Football is won and lost in the trenches and I fear the Pats will lose in January because they are not good enough on the offensive side of the line.

Last: That the Pats might have to go through the house of horrors that is Denver doesn't help, either. It's true that Denver just eked out a win against a compromised Pats squad earlier this year at home. It's also true that the Pats' winning percentage there, much like their winning percentage in Miami in the BB/Brady years, sucks. And that playing in that altitude is very difficult, especially as the game wears on. That Peyton is usually one and one in the playoffs helps, tis true.

I hope I am wrong about the Pats' prospects and am just being reactionary.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

I agree with Theo on the O-line. They've been horrendous during the second half of the season, with or without Vollmer. I cannot remember Brady being consistently abused like this, game after game, or such putrid run blocking. Edelman will help mask some of the deficiencies in pass blocking, but I'm not sure it will be enough against Denver, KC, or the Bengals.

I tend towards extreme optimism--this is as negative as I've felt going into the playoffs since 2009.

 

[alydar]

This year’s offense reminds me, in a way, of the 2013 defense. That defense was pretty shaky for most of the year, especially in the passing game, in part because the line wasn’t capable of winning the battles in the trenches. It became clear that the squad was one player away from just falling apart, and that one player happened to be Aqib Talib in the AFCCG. Similarly, what we’ve seen from this year’s offense is that they are, apparently, one player away from falling apart, and that player is either / both Edelman & Gronk, in part because the line is quite shaky.

I don’t want to take the comparison too far, both because analogies have their limits and because the complimentary squad is better this year — I’d say the 2015 defense, which should be remarkably healthy all things considered, is more capable of essentially winning a tough game than the Gronk-less 2013 offense.

Hopefully, this year’s season won’t also end in Denver, not least of which because having to play in Denver, to me, is a self-inflicted wound. I can’t see a Pats-led blowout there, and between home field and the power of the Manning narrative influencing the outcome, I’m incredibly wary of bad calls being a difference maker in that situation.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I think they are a competitive one and done due to OL issues and injuries. One thing that has bothered me is the way they have handled the moderate severity injuries over the past six weeks or so. Hightower and Amendola should not have been playing, period. When they were on the field they added little and now they are in positions where they may/probably will not be a full health for the playoffs. I would also like to know more about the Easley injury, because it's clear to me that they miss him on third down. If he had a 4-6 week injury and they IR'd him while carrying Freeny, I think that is also a mistake. To add to all that, I fear Brady may have a moderate injury that will alter his game. If he can't shift around in the pocket with this line, it's going to be a problem.

Then again, maybe they're on to Cincinnati, figuratively and possibly literally. I'd be lying if I didn't think it was the end of all things last year. I also find myself quite contented regardless of how they do; I really wanted that 4th, which they got in the most spectacular and draining fashion imagineable. Everything else under Brady and Belichick to me at this point really is gravy. At this point, I think the one thing I want to see more than anything else is for Goodell and the rest of his henchmen to get rolled up FIFA-style. Another palatable option, of course, would be to watch the Ginger Fuckface hand over the Lombardi to Kraft again and the MVP to Brady. That Monday morning press conference would be so so delicious.

 

[tims4wins]

I may be a total homer but I think they come out and absolutely smoke whoever they play in two weeks. Defense on lock down, offense plays above average, solid special teams, and a 30-10 type of win.

 

[Slow Rheal]

I may be a total homer but I think they come out and absolutely smoke whoever they play in two weeks. Defense on lock down, offense plays above average, solid special teams, and a 30-10 type of win.

I think this is right and this is where Tom starts to bring the team in on his post DG emotion / "us against them" stuff. Because if they don't, they're done quickly.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I think they'll be competitive whoever they play and will have a chance to win the game down the stretch, and like others I think the ability of the o-line to protect Brady will be the key to everything.

Quite frankly I'm totally fine with that. I think they came into the seaosn with a stacked team that with reasonable health would have coasted to the #1 seed in the AFC and would have been the prohibitive favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and would probably have gone into that game favorites. But it is the NFL and injuries happen, and they have been devastated. To be a game game away from a 5th straight AFC Title game given all of the injuries they have dealt with makes this season a success in my eyes regardless of the result in two weeks.

I don't agree with Ed on a lot but winning the 4th took a ton of the angst and pressure away from me and I was just able to enjoy the season. Going into every season feeling like anything short of a Super Bowl victory is a failure is just a shitty way to approach the season as a fan. I had fallen into that trap. Thank God for Malcolm Butler, and now this year I can be content to let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Boston Brawler]

I'm optimistic. If it were a healthy team and we had the same performance the last 6 weeks, I'd be worried. We weren't healthy, though. Getting guys like Edelman, Amendola, Vollmer, et al. back for the 16th, combined with two weeks rest and preparation, has me confident the team will turn things around.

 

[The Big Red Kahuna]

I said it last night, and I'll say it again... I am/was honestly dead on 50/50 fence watching Denver game. While home-field throughout matters obviously, the way the seeding played out is pretty darn favorable. With two weeks to get rested/walking wounded back... I have a really hard time seeing any of Hou/KC/Cincy coming into Foxboro and it not being a "relatively" comfortable game. Then, let Pitt/Den beat up on each other and take our chances in AFCCG, wherever it is, against whichever of them survives their matchup.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I may be a total homer but I think they come out and absolutely smoke whoever they play in two weeks. Defense on lock down, offense plays above average, solid special teams, and a 30-10 type of win.

They just got their asses kicked by a 5-10 team going nowhere with HFA on the line, and managed to get their franchise QB dinged up in the process. There's no way they're smoking anyone in the playoffs.

Keep in mind that Brady is 2-7 in Denver all time. That's what was at stake in Miami yesterday, and the Pats completely blew it.

The OL is terrible, the receivers can't get any separation, the running game is non-existent, and the defense can't get off the field on 3rd down.

They're 2-4 over their last 6 for good reason: they're playing like total garbage. 2 weeks isn't enough time to fix all that's wrong with the team.

If anyone watched the Do Your Job documentary, Ernie Adams said something in it that resonates with me now: there is no such thing as a game day player. Success on the field stems from success in practice and success in film study and planning. The injured players have missed so much time in all of those categories that to me it's ridiculous to think they'll come out there in 2 weeks and play just like they did before the injuries.

I would strongly urge people to temper their expectations for this year. Last year they won the SB in large part because of good injury luck and strong play down the stretch. This year they've had terrible injury luck and have played like shit down the stretch. That doesn't translate to "optimistic" for me.

 

[The Big Red Kahuna]

The OL is terrible, the receivers can't get any separation, the running game is non-existent, and the defense can't get off the field on 3rd down.

They're 2-4 over their last 6 for good reason: they're playing like garbage. 2 weeks isn't enough time to fix all that's wrong with the team.

I agree they played like garbage, but I disagree with larger points. In this particular case, 2 weeks can be enough to fix most (clearly not all) of their issues. 1) It's literally a different team without healthy: Chandler/Hightower/Chung/McCourty/Amendola/Edelman; 2) See #1; 3) Edelman didn't play preseason and was in midseason form for opener; 4) They didn't use their only real weapon, Gronk, in normal ways yesterday, opting to make sure he didn't take any unnecessary hits over middle... that's a massive difference from offense when everyone back and its all on line;

The O-line is the real concern. But I think BB recognized that with "bye" locked up, the mounting injuries were a bigger concern, and playing to just "get game over with" was the approach.

 

[dcmissle]

I'll be grateful for whatever we get so long as they play hard and smart. "Next man up" can't beat injuries.

I am afraid Ed is on to something with the Brady ankle, though we won't know for sure until they are done.

I don't know in what universe the Chiefs coming into Fox riding an 11-game win streak translates into a relatively comfortable victory. Just as Pitts is being overestimated, KC is being sold short IMO.

 

[amarshal2]

Yeah, I expected some pessimism for sure but I'm shocked by the degree and the amount of consensus. In the middle of the season, I thought it was the best team I'd ever seen. Late in the season, I thought they looked limited by injuries for sure, but also like a team that was game planning to stay as healthy as possible for the playoffs. They didn't go all out and try to win - it's no wonder they looked like crap. Even if the injuries are just too much and they end up losing their first game, they're not going to look anything like the team we've seen of late.

 

[tims4wins]

Last year, there was heated debate whether the Pats should be scared of the Ravens. There was a pretty equal split on "yes because of history" vs. "no because the Ravens are the six seed and they suck".

Seems like a similar debate is happening this year - "Pats will be fine because they get all the horses back, last six weeks don't mean anything" vs. "Pats are done, last six weeks are proof".

Last year the "Ravens are scary" crowd was correct even though the Pats won. I don't think either side is convincing the other over the next two weeks. The proof will be on the field one way or the other.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Well of the guys coming back it's really only Edelman that has missed significant time and we literally saw him come out in week 1 on fire after missing all of the preseason. I think Edelman is really the straw that stirs the offense. Getting the ball out quicker, giving LaFell more favorable matchups and especially playing at tempo are all much benefits to an OL that has not played well. That and allowing them to pick their matchups again on offense is huge. They have not been able to dictate anything to a defense in quite some time.

A lot has been said about the tackles being bad because they have been bad. But the interior has been just as rough. Kline has been banged up and the rookies seemingly hit the rookie wall, Jackson has had injury as well. I think the two weeks to give those guys some rest. Ay be as beneficial as anything.

Everyone agrees they have been bad. But there are many things that will change in the next 12 days and almost all of them are a positive for the Pats.

 

[tims4wins]

One other point: I have no idea if this means anything, but there is literally no film of the Patriots offense as it will stand on January 16 since early November. Will make scouting a little more difficult for their opponent. Probably means very very little.

 

[The Big Red Kahuna]

Echoing my views that #2 seed not bad place to be (given Pitt #6 and Denver #1), Vegas has Patriots as co-favorites (with Arizona) to win SB.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I'm not quite sure why people are lumping Cincy in with Hou/KC. I know there is uncertainty at QB but if Dalton comes back and looks decent, this is a team with by far the most playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Dalton injury almost certainly cost them a bye. I'll be rooting against Cincy this weekend not because of the Den implications but because I'd much rather see KC or Houston with a strong preference for Houston. Hoyer could be knocked out at any moment and then you've got Brandon Weeden.

As for the Pats, I'm at the point where I just don't know what to expect. In 2010, I was certain of a SB berth and then they went out and laid a massive egg against the Jets. In 2011, I thought we sucked and they nearly won the SB. Last year, I was as confident as I've been since 2007 and they went out and gave up a ton of points to a garbage Ravens team.

At the end of the day, I'm concerned by the OL but I'm encouraged about the possibility of having Gronk and Edelman for a playoff push. Edelman's health really is the key. If he comes back and looks pedestrian, a definite possibility, then Gronk gets bracketed and we're left relying on an injured Amendola and completely erratic LaFell. If Edelman comes back and looks close to his normal self, everything opens up and the offense probably does well although I'm skeptical that the ground game does much of anything. I'm not really concerned with the defense assuming Jones and Hightower are ok. Confident they will make some plays to keep the team in it.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Echoing my views that #2 seed not bad place to be (given Pitt #6 and Denver #1), Vegas has Patriots as co-favorites (with Arizona) to win SB.

Vegas cares for evening the betting lines and nothing more. The Pats being favorites has nothing to do with their chances of winning the SB, it's all about making the casinos money.

 

[JimD]

I'm tending towards pessimistic right now. The Eagles loss was relatively easy to explain away - letdown game, 'any given Sunday', the Pats are every non-contender's Super Bowl, etc. - but consecutive losses to the Jets and Phins when they were really trying to win is a bad sign. Brady looked pretty pedestrian yesterday and I can't chalk it all up to some vanilla game plan. They wanted to win and if Josh and Tom thought they could have busted out some non-trick plays to try and put the game away early, they would have. The loss of Dion Lewis and the complete inability to replace him with anything remotely resembling a competent running game has really hamstrung the offense and that isn't changing the rest of the way.

I'm also really worried about Brady's ankle injury. Letting him go back out and play on it some more was not smart and will blow up into the biggest non-'Gate' shitstorm of Belichick's tenure if Tom is hobbled in two weeks and the Pats get bounced in the first round.

Maybe I'm just cranky this morning, but right now I'm doubting that they will be able to fix everything in time and go one-and-done. Just too many key injuries to overcome.

 

[dcmissle]

Vegas cares for evening the betting lines and nothing more. The Pats being favorites has nothing to do with their chances of winning the SB, it's all about making the casinos money.

Sharpies among us would say this is not true. Vegas looks to steal money when it can, which is even worse in this context.

In any case, the Pats reportedly were minus 9.5 yesterday, so looking to Vegas often offers cold comfort.

 

[The Big Red Kahuna]

Vegas cares for evening the betting lines and nothing more. The Pats being favorites has nothing to do with their chances of winning the SB, it's all about making the casinos money.

Trust me, I get what Vegas does and how they set lines/odds all too well... unfortunately, too well. They clearly know the public will buy up NE at whatever odds. That said, if you think the posted odds have "nothing to do with", or are completely irrelevant with real odds to win SB, you're wrong.

 

[j44thor]

A healthy Jules and Dola opens up so much more of the playbook.
You simply can't expect keyshawn Martin to replicate what those guys can do. I'll take my chances with the team that should be a lot closer to the one that rolled to 10-0 than the one that finished 2-4.

 

[Stitch01]

Its a massive oversimplification to say Vegas jus tries to even the lines, Vegas is happy to let dumb money shove money into what they think are bad sports.

9.5 point favorites lose 19% of the time or something like that on average.

Pats as co favorites seems a little optimistic, but not by much. Their road in the AFC is much harder than the NFC road. They're still the most likely team to win the AFC.

I think the line looks much better in two weeks both from having Vollmer back and being able to have Brady get the ball out quickly and play more uptempo. The running game blocking hasn't been great, but the real line problems have been in pass protection. I expect we'll see what we saw before Edelman and Amendola got hurt, Brady doing pass protection by getting the ball out extremely fast . Also looked like (but I haven't seen stats on it) they really limited the amount of times Gronk was targeted down the seam after he banged up his knee, which is a really important element of what the Pats do on offense. Defense looks much better with Jones and Hightower back, pass rush has been very good all year when everyone has been healthy. They'll be vulnerable to secondary receivers making plays in one on one catch situations.

Pessimism is understandable given how they finished, but given several key cogs are returning and the AFC is pretty weak this year, still optimistic there's a Super Bowl run coming and they aren't very likely going to be one and done.

 

[Toe Nash]

They're going to be fine. Everyone needs to chill.

The Denver loss was a close one and with competent refs or another play or two they probably win. The Eagles game was a complete aberration.

Then they destroyed the Texans and Titans, which we conveniently forget.

I think for the last two games they were trying to make a weird balance between winning one of the two games with the players they have, not getting further injured, and also trying out some new plays and players (such as getting Jackson up to speed). Knowing that they had the bye no matter what. It went about as poorly as possible but they were a coinflip from beating a desperate Jets team on the road, and most of that game was played without Vollmer as well as other important players. The line sucked yesterday and I'm not giving them a complete pass, but the Dolphins line is a strength.

As it is, having the #2 only matters if Denver beats Pittsburgh or KC (or on the offchance, Houston) -- otherwise they still have the AFC champ at home. The chances of that depend on what you think about Denver at this point, which is a question given Manning. Not to mention Chris Harris and Ware being banged up.

They can lose to Denver or Cincy but that was the case no matter what. I think it will be a competitive game; the defense can keep them in games when healthy and with Edelman back the offense will be completely different. And the coaching staff with an extra week to prepare is still pretty great.

 

[nothumb]

Too much of both extremes in this discussion so far. The sky isn't falling but they probably aren't going to stomp their next opponent either, because the playoffs are hard.

I think the Pats after a bye are probably at least a 3 point favorite over any other AFC team on a neutral field. Losing HFA really hurts and I'm not sure the scheduling advantage of sending Pitt to Denver makes up for it. But it's close.

The OL is my biggest concern. I disagree with people who say we have to run - with a healthy receiving corps we don't have to run much, but we have to get the ball out quick. I think KC is probably our worst remaining matchup in terms of being able to disrupt that. I am probably as worried about a slow starting Pats team against KC in the divisional round as I am about going to Denver. I think if they make it to Denver healthy they should have the horses on offense to beat that team.

LaFell has been a huge disappointment these last few weeks. Is he only capable of winning routes when Jules and Gronk are drawing all the attention underneath? Is he still hurt? I dunno, but without a big contribution in the playoffs it's hard to see him back. He has been non competitive.

Regardless of what happens I think we need to address TE and OL in the draft.

 

[johnmd20]

Everyone really needs to chill. Brady gets two weeks to heal. So do everyone else. Vegas isn't setting the line because "the think the Pats will get action no matter what". They are setting the line because the Pats have a great chance to win the Super Bowl.

 

[jablo1312]

Whoever thinks the Pats need to run the ball to compete in the playoffs apparently didn't watch much of the playoffs last year. They need to protect Brady for 3 seconds on his dropbacks- if they can't do that, then everything else is semantics because unless they can win the turnover battle by 2+ they're most likely going to lose. You don't need to run to win in the playoffs, you need to score to win. The Pats have been able to score in a mostly one-dimensional (in a traditional run/pass way, at least) offense for a lot of the last two year. Will they be able to do that with Edelman/Amendola/Gronk/Lafell/White on the field. I'm inclined to say yes, but we'll see.

While I'm optimistic about the teams chances still, one thing to be cautious of is assuming now that "everyone is back" that they will stay that way. I'd be very surprised if Brady, Edelman, Amendola, Hightower, Vollmer, Jones, Chung, McCourty all make it through 2 playoff games without at least one of them re-aggravating their injury enough that they need to be removed from the game. Those are 8 of your 11-13 best players. Just have to hope as many of them as possible stay healthy and effective.

 

[SoxVindaloo]

I think they'll be competitive whoever they play and will have a chance to win the game down the stretch, and like others I think the ability of the o-line to protect Brady will be the key to everything.

Quite frankly I'm totally fine with that. I think they came into the seaosn with a stacked team that with reasonable health would have coasted to the #1 seed in the AFC and would have been the prohibitive favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and would probably have gone into that game favorites. But it is the NFL and injuries happen, and they have been devastated. To be a game game away from a 5th straight AFC Title game given all of the injuries they have dealt with makes this season a success in my eyes regardless of the result in two weeks.

I don't agree with Ed on a lot but winning the 4th took a ton of the angst and pressure away from me and I was just able to enjoy the season. Going into every season feeling like anything short of a Super Bowl victory is a failure is just a shitty way to approach the season as a fan. I had fallen into that trap. Thank God for Malcolm Butler, and now this year I can be content to let the chips fall where they may.

Amen to Ed and Ralph. Last year changed a ton for me. This year started out awesome but now they are a walking MASH unit and their most important piece might have taken an injury that will affect him for the playoffs. Nevertheless I will enjoy the ride and am cautiously optimistic about the 16th. If Brady is still throwing to Chandler and LaFell in the divisional game my mood will change quickly.

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

I think it all comes down to the O-line. Maybe the rookies along the interior could use a week off, and hopefully Vollmer comes back strong. Healthy Edelman or not, If we see the jailbreak, they're done.

I have no f'ing clue what's going to happen, and I agree with those who feel this is all gravy after they got number four. But it would be a shame to have a team that was, when relatively heathy, clearly the best, fall short because too many important horses got dinged up.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

AFC point differential:
1. NE, +150
2. CIN, +140
3. KC, +118
4. PIT, +104
5. NYJ, +73 (eliminated)
6. DEN, +59
7. HOU, +20

AFC All-season DVOAs (more strongly correlated with playoff success than weighted DVOAs) thru Wk 16:
1. CIN, +27.9%
2. NE, +26.9%
3. KC, +24.5%
4. PIT, +20.5%
5. DEN, +18.3%
(weighted rankings go KC, CIN, PIT, NE, DEN, with the middle 3 very tightly clustered)

I like our chances against Houston, and I'd still favor us against CIN particularly without Dalton. CIN with Dalton or getting KC would make me nervous unless we were more or less back to full health. We've slowed down a bit, but we haven't completely fallen off the table like GB has.

AFC Offense all-season DVOAs thru Wk 16:
1. PIT 18.9%
2. CIN 18.4%
3. NE 17.2%
4. KC 11.3%

...which is to say, I'm much more concerned with Hightower than I am Edelman, and with McCourty (and Freeny) moreso than Vollmer and Amendola. Jamie Collins needs to not miss tackles, get off his blocks, and catch the passes he deflects straight up (unreasonable expectations for any player? Maybe, but he's our best defender, we need him to make plays right now, not merely Do His Job). McCourty needs to not get burned on a stack-receiver quick out at the goal line, or we need to have 3 corners in there (whither Coleman?). Slater needs to be closer to 100% and he and Ebner need to tackle at the point of a punt catch more often. Hell, Ghost needs to be Ghost, in which case maybe Brady was driving for a tying TD instead of Garoppolo taking a garbage drive at the end. There are dozens of little things we need to do better, which I'm sure BB is drilling into people as we speak right now on Monday morning... but if we do them, especially on defense / ST, we can absolutely win the AFC.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Getting Edelman back will be huge. I don't think it can be overstated. A healthy Amendola can do a decent Edelman impression, but an injured Amendola can not. Is it any coincidence that the offense has looked like shit the last two weeks when Amendola wasn't there (NYJ) or played very sparingly and was clearly hobbled (MIA), yet looked just fine when he was healthy and playing?

It's a trickle down effect. Edelman and Amendola getting open quickly mitigates the OL issues. This allows Gronk to stay in and block less. Attention paid to Edelman helps Gronk get open more often. And so on. it's not a coincidence that their offensive look is completely different when those guys aren't there. Not just in terms of success, but what they try and do. They can't play their offense without at least 1 of those 2 being healthy. A passing game featuring Lafell and Martin is going to look like shit, doubly so when you have an OL that isn't a strength. This shouldn't be a surprise.

I mean, is everyone forgetting that about 6 weeks ago, we all wondered how they could win with all the injuries that were piling up? That as long as most guys got back for the playoffs, that was all we cared about? And here we are, they're just about all going to be back.

They should be the favorites. Who else should be? Denver? That defense is good but not as good as it was earlier in the year, and do you trust Mr. 67.9 QB rating to lead them to the promised land? I think there's an excellent chance we're still hosting the AFC Championship Game in 3 weeks.

 

[Auger34]

For the people that are saying the sky is falling, hasn't it seemed like the offensive gameplan the past 3 weeks was very vanilla? Almost alarmingly so, as if they were playing pre-season games?
I can't help but think that when faced with a win or go home game and a healthier Edelman and Amendola that the game plan will be very different and more creative. Whether the line can protect enough to allow that to happen is a different story.

Basically, if the Patriots are healthy or even close to healthy they are the best team in the AFC and I don't think it's particularly close. However, there is no way to tell until they actually lace them up and step on the field in 2 weeks

 

[RoyHobbs]

I love and would echo a bunch of the stuff (T&A and OL rest; Stich and the Vollmer effect) in this thread, but I gotta say, the one thing that has stuck in my head is to what extent, if any, Gronk will be (or has been) thrown off his game by the OPI calls.

If Gronk can't do what Gronk does, then...

 

[AB in DC]

It's really going to depend on health, which is completely unpredictable at this point.

Otherwise, my biggest concern is the interior OL, where the team can't seem to find a combination that they're comfortable with.

The rest of the team gives me no real concerns. Get players back healthy and get average-ish performance by the OL, and this team gets to the Super Bowl (and probably loses to SEA/ARI/CAR). If not, then they could be one-and-done.

 

[lexrageorge]

I'm not optimistic. The injuries to the OL, as well as to their top 2 running backs (Lewis and Blount) will make it difficult for Brady to execute the offense. The opposition has not been biting on Brady's play action, as they are content to let the Pats try to run. Vollmer coming back should help, but if I recall he was dealing with a concussion earlier in the season as well as his recent ankle injury, so who really knows how effective he will be.

If Gronk, Amendola, and Edelman all get healthy, then there's hope. But, Gronk hasn't looked like Gronk the past few weeks, Amendola has been dealing with that knee since the Denver game, and we really have no idea what we'll see in Edelman in his first game back. LaFell seems to have regressed mightily this season.

Defensively, they may be OK. However, situational defense matters a whole lot in the playoffs, and that has been sorely lacking the past few games.

OTOH, no team needs the bye right now more than New England, and all of the AFC playoff teams have flaws of their own. So while 1-and-done would not surprise me, neither would another Super Bowl appearance.

 

[Joe D Reid]

OTOH, no team needs the bye right now more than New England, and all of the AFC playoff teams have flaws of their own. So while 1-and-done would not surprise me, neither would another Super Bowl appearance.

The part about the other teams being flawed is what resonates with me. I don't think that this year's team is as good as last year's, even if healthy. But the two other 12-win teams in the conference have injury or performance issues at QB; the team can be materially worse than last year and still get back to the SB.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

If Gronk, Amendola, and Edelman all get healthy, then there's hope. But, Gronk hasn't looked like Gronk the past few weeks, Amendola has been dealing with that knee since the Denver game, and we really have no idea what we'll see in Edelman in his first game back. LaFell seems to have regressed mightily this season.

I won't go too far in responding to this in fear of repeating myself, but these are all inter-connected. LaFell has been disappointing for sure, but he's fine as a #3 or #4 receiver. Gronk has been the only serious weapon on the team the last two weeks, and he's been asked to stay in and block more than typical, as far as I noticed. I don't know where I could confirm or deny that with data, so I could be wrong on that last piece. As good as Gronk is, when the defense can focus on him at absurd levels, of course the performance drops. Amendola also seemed to be OK after missing the Denver game until he hurt it again against Tennessee (he had 13 catches the next two weeks). He was clearly limited against Miami, but the fact he was out there at all is a good sign going forward.

Defensively, they may be OK. However, situational defense matters a whole lot in the playoffs, and that has been sorely lacking the past few games.

Similarly, I'm not sure how you can project much from the defensive performance of the past two weeks. Over those two games they were missing some combination of McCourty, Chung, Hightower, and Jones among others. They also seemed to play extremely vanilla defense the past two weekends. The last time we saw the defense we should put on the field in two weeks, they absolutely dominated Houston. I think they'll be fine too.

 

[fiskful of dollars]

I'm pretty pessimistic. I just can't seem to get past the OL play. I understand the injury situation and I do think we will a much more dynamic offense come playoff time. Nevertheless, the way they are playing is uninspiring to say the least. Typically, the Pats own December and hit their stride in the payoffs. Right now the 2 week bye is a blessing but I literally have no idea what to expect in the Divisional round.

One glimmer of hope is that IF they get Edelman, Dola, Gronk, et al back and in top form, they may be able to go uptempo. This could stress the defense, exploit matchups and eventually tire out the opponent's D-line. That could mitigate the OL weakness to some degree. I hope to see the defense return to form. ST are a mystery right now.

 

[joe dokes]

I'm pretty pessimistic. I just can't seem to get past the OL play. I understand the injury situation and I do think we will a much more dynamic offense come playoff time. Nevertheless, the way they are playing is uninspiring to say the least. Typically, the Pats own December and hit their stride in the payoffs. Right now the 2 week bye is a blessing but I literally have no idea what to expect in the Divisional round.

One glimmer of hope is that IF they get Edelman, Dola, Gronk, et al back and in top form, they may be able to go uptempo. This could stress the defense, exploit matchups and eventually tire out the opponent's D-line. That could mitigate the OL weakness to some degree. I hope to see the defense return to form. ST are a mystery right now.

One of the major reasons the OL looked so good was that Brady *always* had someone to throw to immediately. That's just not the case without Edelman, a banged-up Amendola, LaFell as a top option and a deceased Chandler too high on the depth chart. So, if Vollmer AND the WRs are playing close to full strength in two weeks, I'm a lot more optimistic than the results of the last two weeks would otherwise justify.

 

[timelysarcasm]

Count me in the cautiously optimistic crowd. Yes, they looked like butt yesterday, but the very early bye and a shitstorm of injuries have had their cumulative effect. The last couple of weeks in my opinion have been an aberration. Edelman really does change things (look at the Packers offense without Nelson). JE helps the o-line, Amendola, LaFell, and Gronk. Add in that the injuries to Hightower, Jones, McCourty, Chung, et al and it's not terribly surprising they've faltered. I think the Patriots are going to get some rest when they need it desperately, and come out with a much better performance in the Divisional Round. I don't think there will be any skating in the playoffs this year, but that's to be expected.

Thankfully there is no perfect AFC team right now. I can't think of any team I'd be truly scared of - although I agree that the Chiefs are being overlooked.

 

[mwonow]

+1 in the pessimistic camp. I'd love to be wrong, but...

Vollmer's loss really does hurt, but unless my recollection of the game threads is off, there wasn't a lot of belief here that he was a difference maker on the line before he got hurt - it seems like his absence has made the collective SoSH heart grow fonder. And even if Vollmer fixes the OL issues on one edge, there's still Cannon (or maybe Stork) and the interior guys, who just aren't inspiring a lot of confidence right now.

Edelman is a very good player, and I get that the offence with him was able to throw much faster than it has been without him. But if he's the whole reason for the Pats going from undefeated to unwatchable, screw Cam, JE is the MVP and it's not close. The Pats in the first 10 games of the season were not the same team as the Pats in the last six. There's a lot of belief here that the 'real' team is the former...but if the truth is somewhere in between, the Pats don't have any margin for error in the postseason.

Two other things. One is that there appears to be near-universal belief that all of the currently-injured Pats will be better by the time the playoffs arrive, but this may be one of those cases where the difference between the two meanings of "better" matters. Will they be healthier in 12 days than they are today? That seems likely. Will they be "better" as in "fully healthy, ready to play at early-season levels?" I think that's a much iffier proposition. Secondly, early in the season, it seemed clear that the Pats were head and shoulders above other AFC teams - Denver was undefeated but doing it with mirrors, Cinci looked great but Dalton/Lewis, etc. Today? Chiefs have won 10 in a row, Broncos won when they needed to, Pittsburgh was solid after Roethlisberger returned, and Cinci has talent and may be getting Dalton back, too. All of these teams look to me to be legit in the playoffs - and I think you could make a case that on recent form, all of them would have cause for confidence going into a game in Foxborough or in Denver.

I'm not so deep down the pessimist's hole that I don't see any reason for the optimist view. I think the D is legit, at least if Hightower et al. are healthy. Obviously, any team with TB12 has a chance to win any game they're in. I think the Pats are the mentally toughest team I've ever seen, and will compete until the end of any game. But I think they will need more than a little luck to get past any of the other four good playoff teams, and that three in a row is a serious longshot - maybe not a Houston-level longshot, but much longer than many here are willing to admit.

 

[johnmd20]

+1 in the pessimistic camp. I'd love to be wrong, but...

Vollmer's loss really does hurt, but unless my recollection of the game threads is off, there wasn't a lot of belief here that he was a difference maker on the line before he got hurt - it seems like his absence has made the collective SoSH heart grow fonder. And even if Vollmer fixes the OL issues on one edge, there's still Cannon (or maybe Stork) and the interior guys, who just aren't inspiring a lot of confidence right now.

Edelman is a very good player, and I get that the offence with him was able to throw much faster than it has been without him. But if he's the whole reason for the Pats going from undefeated to unwatchable, screw Cam, JE is the MVP and it's not close. The Pats in the first 10 games of the season were not the same team as the Pats in the last six. There's a lot of belief here that the 'real' team is the former...but if the truth is somewhere in between, the Pats don't have any margin for error in the postseason.

Two other things. One is that there appears to be near-universal belief that all of the currently-injured Pats will be better by the time the playoffs arrive, but this may be one of those cases where the difference between the two meanings of "better" matters. Will they be healthier in 12 days than they are today? That seems likely. Will they be "better" as in "fully healthy, ready to play at early-season levels?" I think that's a much iffier proposition. Secondly, early in the season, it seemed clear that the Pats were head and shoulders above other AFC teams - Denver was undefeated but doing it with mirrors, Cinci looked great but Dalton/Lewis, etc. Today? Chiefs have won 10 in a row, Broncos won when they needed to, Pittsburgh was solid after Roethlisberger returned, and Cinci has talent and may be getting Dalton back, too. All of these teams look to me to be legit in the playoffs - and I think you could make a case that on recent form, all of them would have cause for confidence going into a game in Foxborough or in Denver.

I'm not so deep down the pessimist's hole that I don't see any reason for the optimist view. I think the D is legit, at least if Hightower et al. are healthy. Obviously, any team with TB12 has a chance to win any game they're in. I think the Pats are the mentally toughest team I've ever seen, and will compete until the end of any game. But I think they will need more than a little luck to get past any of the other four good playoff teams, and that three in a row is a serious longshot - maybe not a Houston-level longshot, but much longer than many here are willing to admit.

Pitt wasn't that solid. They let the Browns hang around for 3 quarters yesterday playing with half a team and they lost to Baltimore in Week 16 with their destiny in their hands. Cinncy shouldn't scare anyone at this point, unless they can prove something, anything in the playoffs. Dalton coming back from being out a month and having to win a playoff game at home and then on the road? Not a truly scary concern at this juncture. KC has Alex Smith, who had a good year, but he's Alex Smith, a player always good enough to get some wins but never a player who could carry a team, and they have Andy Reid coaching. A phenomenal coach who always is outmatched in the playoffs. Denver has a QB who is a top 5 all time who is old and can barely throw the ball 25 yards and they almost lost to a putrid SD team, at home, who was also playing with half a roster and no offensive lineman.

Every team is flawed, but the fact is, the Pats are getting key players back and when they had most of those players, they were a really good team. Plus, they have the best coach in the NFL. I don't understand the fear right now. They can lose in the first round, of course, any given Sunday and all that. But they are the best of this bunch, in my opinion.

 

[joe dokes]

and that three in a row is a serious longshot - maybe not a Houston-level longshot, but much longer than many here are willing to admit.

It's always a longshot (or at least, expecting some sort of cakewalk, under any circumstances is silly). In reality, there have been very few not-close playoff games on the roads to the Patriots' various super bowls. Most years, most of the other teams in the playoffs are pretty good.

 

[KenTremendous]

I honestly think they "tanked" the game yesterday -- not "lost intentionally" tank, but mid-week made the decision to just throttle back. Take everyone with an even minor injury, who might have been able to go if a playoff spot were on the line (Jones, Hightower, Chandler, Amendola, Vollmer, Edelman, and on and on) and either deactivate them or play them as little as possible. The playcalling was so vanilla -- and I don't at all buy that they were getting nickel packages against 2TE sets which forced them to run, because they normally pass constantly out of 2TE sets no matter what the defense is showing -- that I felt right away they were treating it as a tune-up and were fine with the 2-seed. Belichick didn't even have his headset on for like the last five minutes of the game.

They tried a bunch of jump balls to Gronk because maybe he wins or maybe there's PI, and when that didn't happen they just shut it down. When have you ever seen them just take a knee at the end of the first half like that?

Their success in the playoffs, as many have said, will be determined by Edelman and the OLine. (Brady maybe had one open receiver to throw to all game yesterday, and no time to let them get open.) I think it'll work, because I think they will be better and scheme better once they have their normal offense. I'm normally a pessimist, but I say they play well and have a decent shot at another title.

 

[Dogman]

I honestly think they "tanked" the game yesterday -- not "lost intentionally" tank, but mid-week made the decision to just throttle back. Take everyone with an even minor injury, who might have been able to go if a playoff spot were on the line (Jones, Hightower, Chandler, Amendola, Vollmer, Edelman, and on and on) and either deactivate them or play them as little as possible. The playcalling was so vanilla -- and I don't at all buy that they were getting nickel packages against 2TE sets which forced them to run, because they normally pass constantly out of 2TE sets no matter what the defense is showing -- that I felt right away they were treating it as a tune-up and were fine with the 2-seed. Belichick didn't even have his headset on for like the last five minutes of the game.

They tried a bunch of jump balls to Gronk because maybe he wins or maybe there's PI, and when that didn't happen they just shut it down. When have you ever seen them just take a knee at the end of the first half like that?

Their success in the playoffs, as many have said, will be determined by Edelman and the OLine. (Brady maybe had one open receiver to throw to all game yesterday, and no time to let them get open.) I think it'll work, because I think they will be better and scheme better once they have their normal offense. I'm normally a pessimist, but I say they play well and have a decent shot at another title.

They ran between the tackles, threw 2 shovel passes (!), kept Gronk out of the middle of the field and threw jump balls to Chandler and Gronk and Lafell. Hell, Brady only threw the ball 21 times. I'd bet you would have to go back a bunch of years to find that few attempts by Brady.

They did take a knee last week against the Jets.

Honestly, Edelman, Dola, Gronk, White, Jackson all playing and no film for other teams to gameplan. Moreover, I can easily see McDaniels drawing up a gameplan in which Edelman does almost nothing similar to the first 8 weeks of the year. Hell, they rotated interior OL all game yesterday. Opposing D-Coordinators are not going to have a clue who is playing, who is running what route tree, who is blocking. I'm optimistic as hell.

Seriously, when was the last time Brady threw even one shovel pass?