I agree with your point that the Pats have invested resources in the secondary, but they've gone outside the org - Bodden was an outside acquisition, as were Deltha O'Neal and Shawn Springs. Obviously, these moves didn't work out any better than the failed draft picks. They weren't as high-profile as Revis / Browner, but they were reasonably big names at the time. Also, I don't think the draft failures at CB were incredible - almost every team has a blind spot / run of bad luck like this over a period of time (look at Ted Thompson's track record with OL, for instance).Reverend said:You've since added Wheatly and Wilhite, but you still haven't included Butler (who was so. damned. fast. [I had high hopes].) and noted that McCourtney ended up at safety.
The wash-out rate at CB for the Patriots in the draft has been fairly incredible, even given the notion that every projection is at best probablistic. So part of the problem with how this debate has turned is that the issue isn't whether or not BB thought he needed high end CBs is that it's clear that he did--he was spending 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks on them. The change is that he went out to get some CB outside of the draft.
So this whole discussion is sort of a red herring based on Theo asserting that BB "should have known" something that we have fairly good evidence that he did. Again, the issue isn't the position, but the means of acquisition.
What kind of DL talent? Interior track record has been good, but the track record with edge rushers is probably even worse than DBs - it's Chandler Jones, and then Tully Banta-Cain is probably #2, with notable misses Bequette, Cunningham, and Crable.Reverend said:Also, I think they may have decided they are better at evaluating DL talent in the draft better than DB talent, but we shall see.
Of course, like any draft analysis, this is splitting hairs, and no more or less valid than looking just at DBs drafted from 2006-2011.
I think Butler's problem is that he's Kyle Arrington minus the toughness and tackling ability. He's a decent slot corner that's weak outside, but he doesn't bring the ability to the do the LB-type things that Pats demand from their slot corners, and he doesn't provide the ST value that KA does. I think his career revival is overstated. He's found a role as an average-ish third corner on a below-average pass D; it's not like he's an emerging star.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:Butler...Butler was an interesting case, Rev. He was extremely promising at first, and then hit that dreaded developmental wall that so many young DBs for the Pats have hit over the years. He's since revived his career in Indy, so maybe the talent was there all along and he had a crisis or confidence/coaching before finding himself again.
Sherman started as a WR at Stanford, only converting to DB his last two years. That scouting report might have been accurate but didn't factor in how raw Sherman was.Reverend said:Wow. I don't watch college football and don't know Stanford's defensive scheme, but that looks to me like an attempt to evaluate a man-to-man god playing in a zone defense.
Carroll was the guy who stumped for Tebucky Jones (6'2" 220) as a "press corner." Jones had started at Syracuse as a RB before transitioning to safety (coincidentally, drafted the same year as Robert Edwards, who started as a S and converted to RB. I can't explain why I remember this stuff). Carroll still apparently thinks Jones might have worked out, but there's no doubt a fifth on Sherman was better value.
The Pats haven't played as much zone since acquiring Talib and moving McCourty to FS. Even when they play zone, it's often a pattern-matching principle where they don't just drop into an area but rather "look for work," where they pass off players according to zone rules but cover them tight like in man coverage.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:Maybe by just giving him a side of the field and saying "that's your man" Carroll is just putting him into a position to succeed. That's interesting, and likely a good talking point as the Pats play a ton of zone. Will BB do what the Jets did and have Revis play man? Or will he actually pull a Schiano (a guy he likes) and put Revis in zone at times as well? So many factors.