Passan reporting Lester/Gomes to the A's for Cespedes

[URI]

Cespedes has a .293 OBP on the road. It's not all Safeco either; he has a career .381 OPS in Tampa, a .641 OPS in Baltimore and a .668 in Fenway. He's actually nearly 100 points of OPS lower on the road.
 
There are sample size issues but it's not clear that Oakland really hurt him.

 
There are major sample size issues, quoting his OPS in Tampa, Baltimore, and Boston.
 
They make up 7.5% of his plate appearances.  In other words...thanks for adding weight to useless information.

Why the hell did you completely ignore the lineup protection line?  Oh, that's right, because then you have nothing to hang your hat on.

What he did hang his hat on was pretty flimsy too.

 

[Myt1]

Welcome Manny v2.0

The two guys are nothing alike.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

 
So that's the criteria then? Should we be happy fielding Jeter at SS?
 
The Cespedes we are getting is a nice player but not a great one. He ranks 14th out of 20 eligible LF in wOBA and has no other hitting skill besides power. It's not a slam dunk that he will revert back to his rookie campaign just because there is a wall 300ft down to LF, it's also a possibility that the Monster could throw off his already very limit approach.

fair points, but I feel ok about taking the chance.  there's risk involved with just about everything

 

[Tim Salmon]

 
Well fortunately, the front office has a whole off season to fill in gaps.  There are still a surplus of prospects to deal, and a logjam of pitchers in AAA that will likely get auditions with the ML club. I mean, if they get Josh Bell back, they are making a bet that he will be as good in 2-3 years as Cespedes is now. Why not take the known quantity, even if its for a year and a half?  

 
This post makes more sense, so it really comes down to speculating about what the 2015 team will look like and whether it projects to be competitive.  As I said upthread, I'm not prepared to grade the front office just yet, but my gut reaction is a disappointment because I am not privvy to the front office's long-term plan, and from where I sit they have more holes to fill than bodies to fill them.
 
Edit: Capable bodies to fill them.  I have no doubt the Sox could repeat 2014 by shuffling minor-league deck chairs.

 

[CoRP]

I can't believe some people are complaining about getting a proven All Star caliber OF for 2 months of Lester.

And those two months of Lester are useless anyway as the Sox are not going to the playoffs this year. So all you're missing is the enjoyment of Lester's last 6 or 7 starts in a Sox uniform.

 

[Dogman]

Because lineup protection is a myth?

 
Yep, a myth.  
 
In 2012 when Josh Reddick was hitting behind him (32 HR, .463 slg), Cepedes' OBP was .356.  
 
It ain't no myth, Flash.

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/TomCaron/status/494864019128590336
 

Source w/ #RedSox told me team wanted to deal Lester to "team we didn't think could re-sign him." Said Sox will make offer this off-season.
 

 

 

[Toe Nash]

 
There are major sample size issues, quoting his OPS in Tampa, Baltimore, and Boston.
 
They make up 7.5% of his plate appearances.  In other words...thanks for adding weight to useless information.

 

Uh, it was part of a larger point. He has actually been a good deal better at home in his "cavernous park" than on the road. For a little extra context, I provided his numbers at the parks he'll be going to. 
 
I'm perfectly aware that they mean little, but the 180 games at Oakland do.

 

[URI]

The two guys are nothing alike.

They are both right handed power and Latiny. So duh.

 

[soxhop411]

https://twitter.com/TomCaron/status/494864019128590336

https://twitter.com/TomCaron/status/494864019128590336

link to tweet
 

 


Hopefully it's market rate.

 

[ivanvamp]

Because lineup protection is a myth?

 
I am sure that over the years this has been beaten to death here in SoSH, but is it really a total myth?  If you put a quality hitter in front of a guy with a .600 ops, do you think the chances of him seeing a good pitch to hit are higher or lower than if that quality hitter was in front of a guy with an .850 ops?  
 
Big spot in the game, two outs, this quality hitter is up, and the pitcher faces the prospect of pitching to him or the guy after him, and the guy after him either sucks or is terrific, what's happening?
 
I can see how it wouldn't matter in the fifth inning of a 9-3 game in mid April.  And so maybe there aren't that many situations like I described above.  But I gotta believe that in this case, conventional wisdom has *some* merit, no?

 

[URI]

Uh, it was part of a larger point. He has actually been a good deal better at home in his "cavernous park" than on the road. For a little extra context, I provided his numbers at the parks he'll be going to. 
 
I'm perfectly aware that they mean little, but the 180 games at Oakland do.

You left out Yankee Stadium where he rakes, and Skydome, where he hits well. Probably because you had a narrative in your head and, by gum, you had to let it known. That he hits well in Yankee Stadium and Skydome is also super irrelevant as well.

You might be right with your larger point...that Oakland helped him out...but provided no proof beyond home and road splits.

Because, since you certainly know this, 7.5% of his career plate appearances mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, and only provide to muddy the waters.

You do know that, right? Beyond a nebulous "Sample Sizes! LOL!" disclaimer? Enrique Wilson didn't really own Pedro, and Cesar Crsepo didn't really own Roy Halladay.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

https://twitter.com/TomCaron/status/494864019128590336

Hoping to resign Lester after you traded him is like hoping to give your girlfriend and engagement ring right after she gets back from a singles cruise. Good luck with that.

 

[H78]

Hopefully it's market rate.

 
No kidding...would anyone be shocked if they went 4/80 and said, "We tried to get Jon back in Boston, but Jon decided to accept an offer with a great dollar value and more years from another club."

 

[Jaylach]

 
I am sure that over the years this has been beaten to death here in SoSH, but is it really a total myth?  If you put a quality hitter in front of a guy with a .600 ops, do you think the chances of him seeing a good pitch to hit are higher or lower than if that quality hitter was in front of a guy with an .850 ops?  
 
Big spot in the game, two outs, this quality hitter is up, and the pitcher faces the prospect of pitching to him or the guy after him, and the guy after him either sucks or is terrific, what's happening?
 
I can see how it wouldn't matter in the fifth inning of a 9-3 game in mid April.  And so maybe there aren't that many situations like I described above.  But I gotta believe that in this case, conventional wisdom has *some* merit, no?

 
I don't claim to know all that much about this stuff, but it's become clear that a lot of players don't think it's a myth. That, alone, probably has some sort of psychological effect on the player.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
Yep, a myth.  
 
In 2012 when Josh Reddick was hitting behind him (32 HR, .463 slg), Cepedes' OBP was .356.  
 
It ain't no myth, Flash.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

 

[Myt1]

They are both right handed power and Latiny. So duh.

Sometimes they just jump out of the lake into the barrel, huh?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

 
https://twitter.com/TomCaron/status/494864019128590336
 

 

 

Sweet leak by the Sox there-- the fans won't be mad now because we're going to bring him back anyway! Then in the offseason, when Lester gets offered $170 million, that's when they will finally offer him 5 years, $110 million. Then they can say that his demands were just way too much so they couldn't bring him back. But they tried! 
 
It's a much better leak than bringing out dirt on him and trying to paint him as a bad guy. 

 

[brandonchristensen]

Hoping to resign Lester after you traded him is like hoping to give your girlfriend and engagement ring right after she gets back from a singles cruise. Good luck with that.

Not many cruise lines swing through Oakland.

 

[johnnywayback]

Hoping to resign Lester after you traded him is like hoping to give your girlfriend and engagement ring right after she gets back from a singles cruise. Good luck with that.

 
Not really.  If they want to pay market rate, or something close to it, they'll get him back.  If they don't, they won't.  Trading him may slightly increase that market rate (because of the lack of a draft pick attached), but it doesn't change that basic calculation unless you believe, despite the complete absence of any evidence supporting this conclusion, that Lester is personally offended by being traded -- or that, again in the absence of any evidence supporting this conclusion, Oakland intends to extend him before the end of the season.

 

[Puffy]

This trade definitely helps to ease my concerns over the 2015 offense and I far prefer it to some package of B+ prospects. The OF defense is going to be incredibly good now.

 
The outfield defense could be a particular asset if they are going with some of their younger pitchers for the rotation next year.

 

[Tim Salmon]

 
No kidding...would anyone be shocked if they went 4/80 and said, "We tried to get Jon back in Boston, but Jon decided to accept an offer with a great dollar value and more years from another club."

 
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Larry hand-delivered an offer for 4/$70,000,001 with a note that read "Your move, ace."

 

[redsahx]

 

https://twitter.com/TomCaron/status/494864019128590336

Source w/ #RedSox told me team wanted to deal Lester to "team we didn't think could re-sign him." Said Sox will make offer this off-season.

 
This makes a ton of sense. They get a comp pick from Oakland in the deal, and are likely to be a bottom 10 team anyways so they have nothing to lose if they want to sign him back as a free agent. Oakland is not a team they need to worry about getting a head start on wooing him for a long term deal. In essence the only thing the Sox gave up in this deal is having Lester and Gomes squander two months of their career on a non-contending team.

 

[soxhop411]

“@DCameronFG: So the Red Sox will not be able to get a compensation pick for him after next year, if he leaves as a free agent.”

https://twitter.com/DCameronFG/status/494861192418959360

Is this true???

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'd think CARP is the odd man out. 

 
I had already counted him out!

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/494867086842138624
 

Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier  44s
Per source, Cespedes' 4-year deal requires him to be released at the end of it. So, not an XXB free agent; can't receive qualifying offer.
 

 

 

[redsahx]

 

Sweet leak by the Sox there-- the fans won't be mad now because we're going to bring him back anyway! Then in the offseason, when Lester gets offered $170 million, that's when they will finally offer him 5 years, $110 million. Then they can say that his demands were just way too much so they couldn't bring him back. But they tried! 
 
It's a much better leak than bringing out dirt on him and trying to paint him as a bad guy.

 
So why should we be upset about the trade then? If they truly have no plans to seriously make a run at bringing back Lester anyways, then what did we lose by dealing him now? If they are serious about trying to resign him, and Oakland is not a threat in that category, then what did we lose by dealing him now?

 

[Toe Nash]

You left out Yankee Stadium where he rakes, and Skydome, where he hits well. Probably because you had a narrative in your head and, by gum, you had to let it known. That he hits well in Yankee Stadium and Skydome is also super irrelevant as well.

You might be right with your larger point...that Oakland helped him out...but provided no proof beyond home and road splits.

Because, since you certainly know this, 7.5% of his career plate appearances mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, and only provide to muddy the waters.

You do know that, right? Beyond a nebulous "Sample Sizes! LOL!" disclaimer? Enrique Wilson didn't really own Pedro, and Cesar Crsepo didn't really own Roy Halladay.

Well, you win the internet then.
 
What proof is there beyond home and road splits? He hits much better at home over 3 years. His spray chart was posted in the "Getting to know Yeonis" thread, and he seems to pretty much hit to all fields.
 
The narrative, if one exists, is that he will rake getting out of Oakland and coming to Fenway. It's not clear at all that that is true.

 

[soxhop411]

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/494867086842138624
 

 

So I bet they extend him then.

 

[CoRP]

 
 
So why should we be upset about the trade then? If they truly have no plans to seriously make a run at bringing back Lester anyways, then what did we lose by dealing him now? If they are serious about trying to resign him, and Oakland is not a threat in that category, then what did we lose by dealing him now?

answer: nothing. They traded Gomes for Cespedes.

 

[JimD]

Hoping to resign Lester after you traded him is like hoping to give your girlfriend and engagement ring right after she gets back from a singles cruise. Good luck with that.

 
More like a buisness trip.

 

[URI]

Sometimes they just jump out of the lake into the barrel, huh?

The best is when you don't even need the gun.

 

[rodderick]

Well, you win the internet then.
 
What proof is there beyond home and road splits? He hits much better at home over 3 years. His spray chart was posted in the "Getting to know Yeonis" thread, and he seems to pretty much hit to all fields.
 
The narrative, if one exists, is that he will rake getting out of Oakland and coming to Fenway. It's not clear at all that that is true.

 
His spray chart showed that the vast majority of his HR and deep fly balls are hit to LF/LCF, which would indicate he'll like Fenway Park.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

 
 
This makes a ton of sense. They get a comp pick from Oakland in the deal, and are likely to be a bottom 10 team anyways so they have nothing to lose if they want to sign him back as a free agent. Oakland is not a team they need to worry about getting a head start on wooing him for a long term deal. In essence the only thing the Sox gave up in this deal is having Lester and Gomes squander two months of their career on a non-contending team.

 
I don't think signing Lester is going to cost any team a compensation pick since Oakland traded for him mid-year. That's a new rule in the current CBA.
 
Edit: Yep.
 

Additionally, as of this [2103], a player traded during the season before he reaches free agency cannot receive a qualifying offer. A team can no longer trade for a player during a season and be compensated with a Draft pick if he signs with another team.
 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Well, you win the internet then.
 
What proof is there beyond home and road splits? He hits much better at home over 3 years. His spray chart was posted in the "Getting to know Yeonis" thread, and he seems to pretty much hit to all fields.
 
The narrative, if one exists, is that he will rake getting out of Oakland and coming to Fenway. It's not clear at all that that is true.

 
This is like arguing that we should just trust UZR since we don't have a better stat to rely on. UZR is flawed and we need to keep that in mind when referring to it. Likewise, using home/road splits is a flawed way to gauge what kind of hitter Cespedes is going to be in Fenway. Just because we don't have a better way to look at it, that doesn't mean drawing conclusions from it is a good idea.

 

[Stitch01]

Hope they are willing to pay 170 million plus dollars if the plan is really to bring back Lester.

 

[brandonchristensen]

The one thing I do like about it is how he was signed pretty cheaply (relatively). I hope they can extend him 3-4 more years.

Now let's pry Abreu out of the white sox and sign that new guy everyone is talking about.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
This is like arguing that we should just trust UZR since we don't have a better stat to rely on. UZR is flawed and we need to keep that in mind when referring to it. Likewise, using home/road splits is a flawed way to gauge what kind of hitter Cespedes is going to be in Fenway. Just because we don't have a better way to look at it, that doesn't mean drawing conclusions from it is a good idea.

But I'm not drawing a conclusion. I'm saying we don't know and the CW may be wrong.
 
 

 
His spray chart showed that the vast majority of his HR and deep fly balls are hit to LF/LCF, which would indicate he'll like Fenway Park.

OK, I was looking at I think the single-year chart. This is probably true:
 
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_hc_spray.php?s_type=15&gFilt=&time=month&player=493316&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/31/2014&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

[Norm Siebern]

Well, I am glad the outfielders all have great arms, because as we wait for all the young pitcher's maturation process, there will be a helluva lot of base runners to be thrown out.

 

[URI]

Well, you win the internet then.

Winning it is much better than losing it. Which is why I suppose you made that little comment...I would hate to lose the internet over something extremely simple.
 

What proof is there beyond home and road splits? He hits much better at home over 3 years. His spray chart was posted in the "Getting to know Yeonis" thread, and he seems to pretty much hit to all fields.

Well, you answered your own question.

Do you know is not proof? What he hit in 7.5% plate appearances. it illuminates nothing.
 

The narrative, if one exists, is that he will rake getting out of Oakland and coming to Fenway. It's not clear at all that that is true.

The narrative I'm talking about, which you and others threw out, is that Cespedes is an offensive risk. Which is completely defensible (and a stance I happen to hold).

But you provided completely irrelevant information to bolster your argument. And because you knew the sample size is so small that it means nothing, you just couldn't help yourself anyway, hoping others would see your point of view.

You shouldn't do this in the future...sure you'll swing some low information posters your way, but I think you're better this this. Dammit, I believe in you, ToeNash.

 

[soxhop411]

So if we cannot get a QO for him I would think they try to extend him this offseason.


Also what does this mean for Mookie? Trade?

 

[IdiotKicker]

The one thing I do like about it is how he was signed pretty cheaply (relatively). I hope they can extend him 3-4 more years.

 
$4/70?

 

[joe dokes]

Whiffing on prospects would add insult to injury - at least the front office is getting a known entity while making a minor gamble that Fenway will help boost his power numbers.
 
 

 
Maybe they figured, "we got lots of prospects....this is a chance to get a major leaguer."

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

But I'm not drawing a conclusion. I'm saying we don't know and the CW may be wrong.

 
Which is drawing a conclusion from that data. The point is that the data doesn't really tell us anything so drawing any conclusion from it, even "conventional wisdom might be wrong," is folly.

 

[brandonchristensen]

 
$4/70?

Haha. That would be funny.

 

[Norm Siebern]

Maybe they figured, "we got lots of prospects....this is a chance to get a major leaguer."

This makes sense.

 

[Toe Nash]

Winning it is much better than losing it. Which is why I suppose you made that little comment...I would hate to lose the internet over something extremely simple.
 

Well, you answered your own question.

Do you know is not proof? What he hit in 7.5% plate appearances. it illuminates nothing.
 

A fair response. I admit to being guilty of looking for reasons to doubt Cespedes, given my bummed-outedness at getting to this point. This is also very game-thready, so I didn't think things through.
 
Your voice of reason may be needed in the "Getting to know Cespedes" thread, there is definitely some low information being thrown around there. (And everywhere on the board the last oh, few months).

 

[URI]

I was going to curl up with a nice glass of Scotch in there tonight, but...I don't really drink Scotch.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So if we cannot get a QO for him I would think they try to extend him this offseason.


Also what does this mean for Mookie? Trade?

 
Cespedes plays every position Mookie could?
 
Good grief.

 

[redsahx]

 

I don't think signing Lester is going to cost any team a compensation pick since Oakland traded for him mid-year. That's a new rule in the current CBA.
 
Edit: Yep.

Thanks. I had missed that. Anyways, MLB should just completely do away with taking picks from teams anyways. Just expand the sandwhich rounds if need be.