OPP - Other People's Prospects

JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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I thought this might be a good place to talk about other team's prospects who may be interesting - either in their own rights or because they are someone you want to trade for who you think will help the Red Sox. Have any binkies you wish the Red Sox drafted or you just love to watch do their thing? Talk about them here. It should also be a good place to recognize huge games or interesting streaks.

I'll also include some national rankings stuff as it may kick off discussions on anyone you guys are either higher than or lower than consensus on.

Here at the MLB Pipeline top 10 RHP:

The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Paul Skenes, Pirates (2024)
2. Jackson Jobe, Tigers (2025)
3. Cade Horton, Cubs (2024)
4. Andrew Painter, Phillies (2025)
5. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (2025)
6. Rhett Lowder, Reds (2024)
7. Mick Abel, Phillies (2024)
8. Chase Dollander, Rockies (2026)
9. Dylan Lesko, Padres (2026)
10. Noble Meyer, Marlins (2026)

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-right-handed-pitching-prospects-for-2024

LHP:

The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Kyle Harrison, Giants (2024)
2. Ricky Tiedemann, Blue Jays (2024)
3. Robby Snelling, Padres (2025)
4. Noah Schultz, White Sox (2026)
5. Anthony Solometo, Pirates (2024)
6. Carson Whisenhunt, Giants (2024)
7. Jackson Ferris, Dodgers (2026)
8. Thomas White, Marlins (2027)
9. Robert Gasser, Brewers (2024)
10. Jordan Wicks, Cubs (2024)

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-left-handed-pitching-prospects-for-2024

& catchers:

The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Ethan Salas, Padres (2025)
2. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (2025)
3. Jeferson Quero, Brewers (2024)
4. Harry Ford, Mariners (2025)
5. Kyle Teel, Red Sox (2025)
6. Dalton Rushing, Dodgers (2025)
7. Blake Mitchell, Royals (2027)
8. Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (2026)
9. Edgar Quero, White Sox (2025)
10. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers (2025)

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-catching-prospects-for-2024
 
JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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A little bit on the prospects the Brewers got for a year of Corbin Burnes.

Chris Clegg is a big Joey Ortiz guy...

View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1753227228563845448


View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1753228555528347909


He suggested that the Brewers must see starter potential in DL Hall. My thought was they saw closer potential, but who knows?

View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1753235833090425125


& the 34th pick has his value for draft budget purposes.

View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1753243560495722635


5 years of a potential starting SS + 5 years of a potential starter/back end reliever + good draft pick isn't a bad return for a year of Burnes. I assume Adames is next.

View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1753229215489556648

I say 5 years because I assume they do the same thing with Ortiz & Hall in their walk years.
 
LogansDad

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Keith Law's report is up over at The Athletic.

I won't link a ton, it is a huge article, but here's #1, and if you are someone who can't get excited about watching Jackson Holliday play, you might just not be a baseball fan:

Holliday went from “maybe he’s a first-rounder” in the fall of 2021, his senior year of high school, to “oh my God he’s the best prospect in baseball” by May of 2023, an unbelievable rise — you could say meteoric, but I prefer to avoid such clichés — that’s a testament to both his natural talent and his incredible feel for the game. He played at all four full-season levels of the minors in 2023, dominating the first three before a solid stint at Triple-A Norfolk to end the year, with a composite line of .323/.442/.499 on the season and 101 walks against 118 strikeouts. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination, so even when he’s fooled by a pitch he often manages to make contact with it, even hard contact. I do think major-league pitchers will force him to shorten up his swing sometimes, as he nearly always swings full bore and no one has given him any reason to do otherwise. He’s a 50/55 runner, likely to end up average once he fills out, a process that will begin as soon as he starts shaving every day. Holliday is a natural shortstop whose position wouldn’t be in doubt if the Orioles didn’t already have an incumbent there — and Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar Henderson at short — but he’s moved around the infield a little and could come up at third or second if Baltimore doesn’t want to dislodge the AL Rookie of the Year. He reminds me in several ways of Troy Tulowitzki, but has the advantage of the left-handed bat and has a better feel for the strike zone. I think he’ll hit .280-.300 with strong walk rates and 25+ homers a year to go with above-average defense at shortstop, and that’s a profile that can win an MVP award.
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JM3

JM3

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Since there's rumors of Duran to the Padres for pitching prospects, here's a quick look at Padres SP prospects with help from Prospects1500.

https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/san-diego-padres-top-50-prospects-2024/

3. Robby Snelling, LHP, 20, Double-A
As a former two-sport athlete and Arizona commit for both baseball and football (turned LSU commit after a coaching change), there’s no question about Snelling’s athleticism. Progressing through three levels of the Padres system and ending 2023 with a 1.82 ERA, he all but solidified himself as their top pitching prospect. An aggressive pitcher that doesn’t shy away from going straight at batters led to him striking out 118 in his first season, but also caused him to give up more hits than he should with his arsenal. Lowering the H/9 but retaining the same aggressiveness on the mound will carry Snelling up to the majors where he could anchor the Padres rotation. (@aj_greene1015)
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Getting to AA in his 1st full year & having a 1.56 ERA in 4 starts there is pretty sweet, but those results don't really seem indicative of how well he was pitching. 5.2 bb/9, 4.84 xFIP, but his A & A+ results are quite good enough for a 19 y/o to not worry too much about the AA stuff other than not overrating him based on it.

A - 11 starts, 4.7 IP/S, 1.57 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 10.3 k/9, 2.3 bb/9

A+ - 7 starts, 5.0 IP/S, 2.34 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 10.4 k/9, 2.8 bb/9

AA - 4 starts, 4.3 IP/S, 1.56 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, 9.9 k/9, 5.2 bb/9

Snelling, 6'3, was the 39th pick in the '22 draft & according to Pipeline has a 60 curveball, 55 fastball & 50 changeup.

4. Drew Thorpe, RHP, 23, Double-A
Arguably the main piece in the Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees, Thorpe comes over with high expectations for the Padres in 2024. The Yankees affiliate leader in strikeouts last season (182) will be looking to expand on his successful pro debut season. He offers a good fastball and slider, but his changeup is where he excels and has one of the best across all the minor leagues. Thorpe isn’t necessarily prone to giving up home runs or walks, but increasing his 4.79 K/BB ratio will be a focus for San Diego’s newest pitching prospect. (@aj_greene1015)
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The Thorpedo was 1 of the Yankees 2 best pitching prospects (imo) along with Chase Hampton. Thorpe was the 63rd pick in '22 & was great in A+ & even better in AA.

A+ - 18 starts, 6.1 IP/S, 2.81 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 11.4 k/9, 2.7 bb/9

AA - 5 starts, 6.1 IP/S, 1.48 ERA, 1.82 xFIP, 13.1 k/9, 1.5 bb/9

Seems unlikely they'd move Thorpe as he was the most valuable part of the Soto trade, but if they have faith in Duran they could sell the look, we got our Soto replacement for 5 years & all this MLB-ready pitching.

Thorpe boasts a 5-pitch mix, including probably the best changeup in MiLB last year.

https://www.mlb.com/video/2024-top-prospect-drew-thorpe

5. Dylan Lesko, RHP, 20, High-A
Lesko is my favorite pitcher in this system. Snelling is closer to the big leagues and has a safer floor, but Lesko has the ceiling of a number two starter. He spent 2023 rehabbing from TJ surgery so patience will be needed with him. Prior to surgery he featured a dynamic three pitch mix with a change-up that made hitters look foolish. It’s nasty. If his control/command get back to pre-surgery levels, his stock will go through the roof in 2024. (@JMahyfam)
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Lesko, the 15th pick in '22, didn't get into any game action until June 20th last year after recovering from TJ.

In 33 innings across 3 levels, culminating in high-A, he struck out 52 (14.2 k/9) & walked 22 (6.7 bb/9).

He was the top rated prep arm in the '22 draft, but dropped due to the TJ.

7. Jairo Iriarte, RHP, 22, Double-A
Iriarte is another pitcher in this system that is an adjustment away from seeing his stock skyrocket. Across two levels in 2023 (High-A and Double-A) he struck out 128 hitters in only 90.1 innings. He features a mid-90’s fastball, a hard breaking slider that can be devastating, and an above average change-up with good fade. The next step will be in refining the command of his arsenal as he walked almost five per nine in 2023. Whether he ends up a mid-rotation starter or in the bullpen will hinge on him making that adjustment. (@JMahyfam)
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Iriarte, who signed for $75k in '18 (if you need a further example of how long it can take to develop IFA pitchers), gained 3 mph on his fastball last year, & had some interesting #s across A+ & AA, marred by control issues which appeared to limit how deep he went into games. The new velo definitely helped as he had an ERA & xFIP over 5 in A-Ball in '22.

A+ - 14 starts, 4.4 IP/S, 3.10 ERA, 3.73 xFIP, 11.4 k/9, 4.1 bb/9

When he was promoted to AA they moved him to the pen, pitching between 1 inning & 2.1 innings from July 15th to August 26th, including the last 4 games as an opener, before pitching between 4 & 5 innings in his last 3 games.

AA - 13 games, 29.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 15.7 k/9, 5.2 bb/9

Definitely seems to have significant relief risk, but an interesting arm.

After that there's guys like Randy Vasquez who doesn't really move the needle for me, Adam Mazur (53rd pick in '22) who I think is pretty interesting but they didn't write him up so I'm not going to unless we actually like trade for him, & Victor Lizzaraga who doesn't really interest me.
 
TimScribble

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Any non-pitching prospects worth mentioning from the Padres?

Also, not sure if Jansen will net you a decent prospect. But curious your thoughts on what could be had there.
 
JM3

JM3

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TimScribble said:
Any non-pitching prospects worth mentioning from the Padres?

Also, not sure if Jansen will net you a decent prospect. But curious your thoughts on what could be had there.
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I never did make my unhinged post on Royals pitching prospects for Kenley. I think his value varies pretty widely depending on how much of his contract you're willing to eat, & I think they should be willing to eat most of it if it means a good return.

In terms of Padres hitters, there's no world where Ethan Salas or Jackson Merrill would be on the table.

Which leaves guys who are either far away like Samuel Zavala & Dillon Head, or lower ceiling like Jakob Marsee & Graham Pauley. They could be interesting system adds, but I honestly don't really see a point in building a trade around them based on the current system imbalance.

A guy like Nathan Martorella would be quasi-interesting 1B depth option if he was a RHH, buuut he isn't, so not much point.
 
TimScribble

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The latest rumors have had Jansen connected to the Phillies. Any names worth mentioning?
 
JM3

JM3

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TimScribble said:
The latest rumors have had Jansen connected to the Phillies. Any names worth mentioning?
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Off the top of my head, I would think Painter & Abel would be untouchable in this type of deal & no one else pitching-wise is that exciting, but let's look at a few from Prospects1500 again:

https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/philadelphia-phillies-top-50-prospects-2024/

5. Orion Kerkering, RHP, 22, MLB
Kerkering should be a major contributor to the major league bullpen this season, following some impressive outings in the 2023. The 22-year-old got into three games in late September for the Phillies, tossing an inning in each. He followed that up with 7 appearances in the Playoffs, all in innings 7-9. Roster Resource projects Gregory Soto and Jeff Hoffman as setup guys to closer Jose Alvarado. If dominoes fall differently, Kerkering could land in any of those high-leverage, late inning roles. (@Scotty_Ballgame)
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A potential high leverage, MLB-ready reliever is probably also more than what we could expect for a year of Jansen unless there's some reason the Phillies would want Jansen fully paid for.

Orion, who has a pretty cool name, was a 5th round pick in '22 & skyrocketed through the org in '23, touching 5 levels.

A-Ball: 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA,
High-A: 20.1 IP, 1.77 ERA
AA: 22 IP, 2.05 ERA
AAA: 1 IP, 0.00 ERA
MLB: 3 IP, 3.00 ERA

Across all 5 levels...

56.2 IP
10 ER
39 hits
14 walks
85 strikeouts

1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.2 bb/9, 13.5 k/9

In his 3 MLB outtings he threw 51 sweepers (86 mph) & 9 sinkers (97.8 mph).. which is kind of crazy for a pitch mix & doesn't seem overly sustainable. I'm still intrigued, though.

6. Griff McGarry, RHP, 24, Triple-A
McGarry has a great fastball and strikeout numbers, but his command may relegate him to the bullpen where he should succeed. He’s on the cusp of the majors, having reached Triple-A in each of the last two seasons. The 2021 5th rounder has started and relieved in the minors, but 2023 saw him start all 17 of his games. He has good competition in the Lehigh Valley starting rotation alongside Abel, David Parkinson, and free agent acquisitions Kolby Allard and Robinson Pina, among others. (@Scotty_Ballgame)
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McGarry doesn't really interest me much with his lack of control. He turns 25 in June. Across A (1 inning) AA (54.2 innings) & AAA (4.1 innings) last year...

60 IP
40 ER
40 hits
50 walks
81 strikeouts

6.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.5 bb/9, 12.2 k/9

That is skewed by a 41.54 ERA in 3 AAA starts (40% walk rate)...buuuut that's kind of a necessary stepping stone.

After that the pickings get even slimmer. No one else really seems particularly promising or has any real success above A-Ball.
 
JM3

JM3

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There also some smoke around a subsidized Kenley to the Dodgers returning a Gavin Stone or similar.

That would have been pretty exciting if '23 didn't happen...

'22 - A+, AA & AAA:
121.2 IP
1.48 ERA
1.12 WHIP
3.3 bb/9
12.4 k/9

'23 - AAA & MLB:
131.2 IP
5.74 ERA
1.45 WHIP
4.0 bb/9
9.7 k/9
 
JM3

JM3

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Here are some Prospects1500 blurbs on Stone & other Dodgers pitchers in that range:

7. Gavin Stone, RHP, 25, MLB
Like Busch, Stone also made a few starts with the Dodgers, but pitched most of his 29 starts in Oklahoma City. His acclimation to the majors will be something to keep an eye on after his initial outings didn’t go well; he ended the year with a 9.00 ERA in the Chavez Ravine. Stone’s athletic delivery has been supplemented by the improvement of his changeup and a new slider. Both have come a long way over his three years in the minors, and should translate to the majors better than they originally did with added experience. (@aj_greene1015)

8. Nick Frasso, RHP, 25, Triple-A
The 25-year-old right hander came over to the Dodgers via trade with Toronto in August 2022. He had 16 starts across three levels that year, and a nice increase (25 starts) in 2023, four of which came for AAA Oklahoma City where he posted a solid 3.26 ERA. Frasso’s strikeout numbers were a lot better in AA Tulsa (11.5 K/9), but he still finished the campaign with a 10.4 K/9 (107 K in 93 IP). The 2020 4th round pick could compete for a spot in LA’s rotation, but he’s more likely to spend a bulk of 2024 in the Triple-A rotation with the likes of Stone, Grove, Knack, Hurt and Company. (@Scotty_Ballgame)

9. Kyle Hurt, RHP, 25, MLB
Hurt, the former USC product, got his cup of coffee in 2023, getting into one game in September, tossing 2 shutout innings with 3 punchouts. He can definitely miss bats. In 92 IP across AA/AAA last season, Hurt tallied 152 strikeouts, which is an astounding 14.9 K/9. If the righty continues that trend in 2024, look for him to be one of the first arms recalled from Oklahoma City. (@Scotty_Ballgame)

11. Landon Knack, RHP, 26, Triple-A
Remember the shortened 2020 Covid MLB Draft, made up of only five rounds? Knack was Los Angeles’ 2nd round selection that year out of East Tennessee State. The 26-year-old was very impressive in 22 games started this past season, split pretty evenly with 12 for Tulsa and 10 for Oklahoma City. Knack was charged with only one loss all year long. His Triple-A ERA (2.93) was fifth among all PCL pitchers with more than 40 IP, and his 2.20 ERA was fourth among all Texas League pitchers with more than 50 IP. As with Stone and Hurt, he could be in line for MLB innings if needed. (@Scotty_Ballgame)

13. River Ryan, RHP, 25, Triple-A
Ryan was a two-way player in college, but has made significant strides as a pitcher since focusing on it full time with the Dodgers. He has good life on a fastball that touches the upper 90’s, a nasty cutter, and a developing change-up. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year he struck out 110 and walked only 46 across 104.1 innings. In a system full of really good arms, don’t let Ryan go unnoticed. His stock is trending up quickly, and there is a chance that he is in in the big leagues at the end of next year. (@JMahyfam)
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https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/los-angeles-dodgers-top-50-prospects-2024/

Seems like a lot of guys with potential to be AAAA guys, but who knows?

I like Hurt & Knack better than Frasso on initial look.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
A potential high leverage, MLB-ready reliever is probably also more than what we could expect for a year of Jansen unless there's some reason the Phillies would want Jansen fully paid for.

Orion, who has a pretty cool name, was a 5th round pick in '22 & skyrocketed through the org in '23, touching 5 levels.

A-Ball: 10.1 IP, 0.00 ERA,
High-A: 20.1 IP, 1.77 ERA
AA: 22 IP, 2.05 ERA
AAA: 1 IP, 0.00 ERA
MLB: 3 IP, 3.00 ERA

Across all 5 levels...

56.2 IP
10 ER
39 hits
14 walks
85 strikeouts

1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.2 bb/9, 13.5 k/9

In his 3 MLB outtings he threw 51 sweepers (86 mph) & 9 sinkers (97.8 mph).. which is kind of crazy for a pitch mix & doesn't seem overly sustainable. I'm still intrigued, though.
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Really leaning into doing something with the Phillies for Kenley, especially if it involves Orion.

Kenley clearly seems unhappy & wants to be in a place that's pushing more chips in...

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1759356123562324152


The Phillies recently lost a RHP power arm...

View: https://twitter.com/mlbtraderumors/status/1759572394463600810


& the Red Sox have done a good job filling in the bullpen for next year adding Fulmer & now Hendriks...

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1759575146422010234
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Since there's rumors of Duran to the Padres for pitching prospects, here's a quick look at Padres SP prospects with help from Prospects1500.

https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/san-diego-padres-top-50-prospects-2024/



Getting to AA in his 1st full year & having a 1.56 ERA in 4 starts there is pretty sweet, but those results don't really seem indicative of how well he was pitching. 5.2 bb/9, 4.84 xFIP, but his A & A+ results are quite good enough for a 19 y/o to not worry too much about the AA stuff other than not overrating him based on it.

A - 11 starts, 4.7 IP/S, 1.57 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 10.3 k/9, 2.3 bb/9

A+ - 7 starts, 5.0 IP/S, 2.34 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 10.4 k/9, 2.8 bb/9

AA - 4 starts, 4.3 IP/S, 1.56 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, 9.9 k/9, 5.2 bb/9

Snelling, 6'3, was the 39th pick in the '22 draft & according to Pipeline has a 60 curveball, 55 fastball & 50 changeup.



The Thorpedo was 1 of the Yankees 2 best pitching prospects (imo) along with Chase Hampton. Thorpe was the 63rd pick in '22 & was great in A+ & even better in AA.

A+ - 18 starts, 6.1 IP/S, 2.81 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 11.4 k/9, 2.7 bb/9

AA - 5 starts, 6.1 IP/S, 1.48 ERA, 1.82 xFIP, 13.1 k/9, 1.5 bb/9

Seems unlikely they'd move Thorpe as he was the most valuable part of the Soto trade, but if they have faith in Duran they could sell the look, we got our Soto replacement for 5 years & all this MLB-ready pitching.

Thorpe boasts a 5-pitch mix, including probably the best changeup in MiLB last year.

https://www.mlb.com/video/2024-top-prospect-drew-thorpe



Lesko, the 15th pick in '22, didn't get into any game action until June 20th last year after recovering from TJ.

In 33 innings across 3 levels, culminating in high-A, he struck out 52 (14.2 k/9) & walked 22 (6.7 bb/9).

He was the top rated prep arm in the '22 draft, but dropped due to the TJ.



Iriarte, who signed for $75k in '18 (if you need a further example of how long it can take to develop IFA pitchers), gained 3 mph on his fastball last year, & had some interesting #s across A+ & AA, marred by control issues which appeared to limit how deep he went into games. The new velo definitely helped as he had an ERA & xFIP over 5 in A-Ball in '22.

A+ - 14 starts, 4.4 IP/S, 3.10 ERA, 3.73 xFIP, 11.4 k/9, 4.1 bb/9

When he was promoted to AA they moved him to the pen, pitching between 1 inning & 2.1 innings from July 15th to August 26th, including the last 4 games as an opener, before pitching between 4 & 5 innings in his last 3 games.

AA - 13 games, 29.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 15.7 k/9, 5.2 bb/9

Definitely seems to have significant relief risk, but an interesting arm.

After that there's guys like Randy Vasquez who doesn't really move the needle for me, Adam Mazur (53rd pick in '22) who I think is pretty interesting but they didn't write him up so I'm not going to unless we actually like trade for him, & Victor Lizzaraga who doesn't really interest me.
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A few guys from this post (Thorpe, Iriarte & Zavala) going to the White Sox for Cease. Along with a 29 y/o reliever who seems like a JAG (3.91 ERA, 5.30 xFIP).

View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1768071402765316259
 
JM3

JM3

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Kiley is going pretty hard on this Cease/Burnes comp & claiming the White Sox should have gotten more for Cease.

View: https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1768081867671032142


The 2 things he seems to be ignoring are the value of potential starting pitchers & that there is more to how good a pitcher is than IP, K-rate & bb-rate.

I'm curious if projection models really are primarily based on just those 3 #s.

Burnes had basically his worst year as a starter last year, as did Cease. All stats Burnes/Cease:

ERA 3.39/4.58
xERA 3.40/4.07
FIP 3.81/3.72
xFIP 3.80/4.08
SIERA 4.02/4.10
fWAR 3.4/3.7
WHIP 1.07/1.42

So Cease beats him in FIP & fWAR which makes me kind of smh @ Fangraphs. But if you want to know why they had such a difference in results, I think the Savant pages from last season can be informative.

Screenshot_20240314_061902_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20240314_061925_Chrome.jpg

Idk, it's an interesting look at *checks notes* projection systems, though.
 
Merkle's Boner

Merkle's Boner

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Re: Skenes. Not sure how you can leave him in the mL. You have to believe he has only so many of those 100+ mph bullets in him before TJ surgery. Not sure why you’d waste them in Altoona.
 
JM3

JM3

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byAndrewParker said:
He cut down a few pounds this year. He told me he wanted to be a bit more agile at first base since he started playing it last year in Worcester.
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Didn't realize he was down in AA. He has played 5 times in 9 games - 3 at catcher & 2 at DH.

I'm guessing he went there because he really wants to make a go at the catching thing & with the Red Sox new focus on defense at catcher, & the existence of Nathan Hickey filling that same role as LHH offense-first catcher who doesn't throw out many runners & is probably better suited for 1B, it wasn't really an option here.

Scott threw out 13 of 99 base stealers across AA & AAA last season & is 1 of 3 so far this year.
 
DJnVa

DJnVa

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Skenes with another start last night.

His AAA numbers:

IP: 12.2
H: 5
K: 27
W: 4
ERA: 0.00

Up to 65 pitches last night.
 
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