Offseason rumors
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Since there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, I assume Andrew Painter will be coming back.
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
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32m
The D-backs are looking to add a RH hitter to pair at DH with Joc Pederson, per sources. Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall among the candidates. Grichuk had a .995 OPS vs LHP in 2023 compared to .787 for Pham and .756 for Duvall.
Unquestionably, he might be the best CBO in baseball to move a reliever for whose best trait is saves.
All that being said, the only thing exciting about moving Jansen will be it should be a precursor to a signing. The return might be interesting but it will be insignificant unless there are other pieces involved
I agree. Which makes me sad. Because they should be able to keep Jansen on his one year deal and also add payroll for this year. But I'll wait before passing final judgement.
I can't believe that the Boston Red Sox have to trade a guy in order to sign another guy. What the hell is even happening here?
I'm a big Jansen fan but I don't see why we people are reading a potential trade as a cost-cutting move and not a good baseball move. He's a supremely likable dude and was excellent the first half of last year, but he fatigued the second half. The risk would be that he's showing signs of the same this summer, or he's on the shelf, and we wouldn't be able to trade him (which is basically what happened with Wacha, Eovaldi, Hill, Kiké Hernandez, Arroyo, J.D. Martinez and Duvall the last two trade deadlines).
Projection systems have Jansen down for an ERA spread of 3.96-4.28 next year. Isaiah Campbell, to name one guy, has a spread of ERA projections from 4.21-4.37. And of course, one guy's 36 and the other's 26.
Projection systems have Jansen down for an ERA spread of 3.96-4.28 next year. Isaiah Campbell, to name one guy, has a spread of ERA projections from 4.21-4.37. And of course, one guy's 36 and the other's 26.
Because there have been persistent/ repeated reports that tie moving Jansen to clearing his payroll space to allow other moves. I think you know that.
It doesn’t mean that it isn’t a good baseball move; witness the enthusiasm here for the Sale trade. Well have to wait and see.
I disagree about a signing being the only exciting part. I’m very anxious to see Houck in that role. I could be wrong, but I feel he’ll excel. PLUS, the obvious freeing up money for a signing or two.
Because the return for him would presumably be underwhelming given his salary, and the bullpen is better with him than without him. So the only reason to trade him is to lower payroll, which, unless they have very substantial moves in mind (i.e., more than just Montgomery), they should not have to do.
The one possibility I am open to is paying Jansen's salary in order to get a significant prospect back.
As always, I'll wait and see.
Furthermore the Sox aren't the Sisters of the Poor here. They should be able to keep a legit bullpen ace AND make another move. Not to quote Lou Gorman here, but this seems like a "Borrow from Peter to pay Paul" thing. Like you potentially weaken your bullpen while strengthening another area of your team. Why can't they do both?
It's mind blowing to me that this isn't more of a thing.
It will surely be more of a thing when/if it actually happens rather than just being rumor and speculation like it is at this point.
I have said many times that my preference was to scrap the hybrid approach and go full rebuild. I personally am in support of playing the kids and holding on to all of our prospects. Having said that, I have also posted several times that the Sox should be judged by what they said they were going to do—compete this year—and that we should give them until the season opens before we judge the off-season. I still feel that way. I believe there are still avenues for them to compete if that’s what they choose to do.
I don’t understand this reaction. What if Jansen is not about a salary dump at all? What if they believe they can get good pieces for him and then slot Houck or Whitlock or Martin into that role and replicate his production, then sign a starter to strengthen the rotation? You want to tell me there’s no chance they’re signing another starter. Fine, perhaps they won’t. But no one here has any idea what the Sox are planning. No matter how angrily anyone stomps their feet, they just don’t know.
Dombrowski has a knack for dealing lots of nothing for something: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/revisiting-dave-dombrowskis-red-sox-trades.html
This is a fan site. All we have access to are public discourse from the team directly, following the teams actions, and reports from reputable reporters.
People are not blindly stomping their feet. They are discussing the offseason based on information that has been provided from A) The Team B)The Team's actions and C) Reporters who do this for a living.
So far this offseason summary for the Red Sox is...
- Signed Lucas Giolito to a 1 year deal and Cooper Criswell.
- Failed to sign several shorter term upgrades
- Lowered payroll with trades (Verdugo and Sale)
- Kennedy says he expects lower payroll
- Alex Speier has reported they are not currently interested in long term deals
- Chris Cotillo has reported they have not been serious bidders on many intriguing free agents
- Chris Cotillo has reported they have said they need to cut payroll in order to pursue free agents
- All reports indicate they are actively feeling out the trade market of their most expensive relief pitcher (Jansen)
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They brought back the greatest baseball executive of the 21st century!!!!!
I'm being sarcastic. I mean, yes they did but I still don't think it matters more than .05% but boy was it presented as big news for the Sox
The burden of proof for what? What is it, in posting these same things over and over and over, that you are trying to prove?
I don't know if the Sox are going to sign another starter or not, but the Sale trade was for a pre-arb 2B, and they essentially replaced Verdugo with the RHH O'Neill, and both players are priced within $3M of each other. They're paying most of Sale's salary this year, IIRC.
In addition to the quotes, they've passed on FAs thusfar, with the exception of Giolito, but none of those seem to be deal-breakers in any sense, or signal a sea-change.
What they end up doing with Jansen (if anything) is probably going to be more instructive than anything thusfar.
Also, haven’t you at various times expressed your happiness with the acquisitions of Grissom and O’Neill and Fitts? Out of curiosity, where are they on your list?
I'm not going to speak for SBS but you can be happy with the moves that the Sox on a transaction-by-transaction basis but not be satisfied by what they did for the offseason. Like when many heard that Sale was traded, the idea was that the money that they saved from shipping Sale to Atlanta was going to afford them a chance for better pitching. That hasn't happened yet. It might! But it hasn't.
So yeah, I'm glad that Sale is gone and the Red Sox picked up Grissom. But at the same time, I'm not happy that the Red Sox have done virtually nothing to improve their starting pitching or their right handed power. You have to be able to understand that people can hold two distinct thoughts in their heads about a complex subject, right? Nonbinary thinking isn't exactly a new concept.
Let’s move on. You are arguing with a Straw man.
I stated the Red Sox are “operating as cash strapped.” You had issues with that.
I have stated very clearly why I feel that the way, with sourcing. And now you are trying to assign my disappointment in the lack of spending to the entire offseason, move by move, which is disingenuous.
If you want to make a counter argument to the Red Sox not spending. Please make it. You have yet to make any points what so ever.
In conclusion, they've made a series of small to medium type moves around the margins to set things up to make bigger moves but have not done so. In the meantime they have made the team either tread water or worse off depending on your view.
The Sox are subsidizing Sale’s salary and they got Grissom, solving a years long problem at second base. Was there an announcement that they were trading Sale to improve the team by using his money to sign another starting pitcher as opposed to just getting better?
And your characterization of my post is completely disingenuous. He put together a list of offseason moves that presented acquiring Grissom and Fitts as trading Sale and Verdugo as “lowering payroll” and that completely omitted signing O’Neill, who replaced Verdugo and better balances the lineup. My comment was not about not respecting the ability to hold opposing thoughts at the same time, nor about presenting any of this as a binary choice. It was about highlighting the point that when it serves him to be excited about moves, he gives full throated support for them. When it serves him to present the Sox as “cheap”—which he keeps refusing to acknowledge is what he said—then he characterizes those exact same moves as being about “lowering payroll.” Feel free to read the exchange and tell me that I’m wrong.
Yeah I agree 100%... our payroll is down to about $9.65 so I don't see that as the issue.
On another note, excited to see the next embedded tweet about a rumor involving the Sox.
Got me to laugh out loud. Well, it was more of a chuckle, but well done regardless.
At the same time, it is possible to judge a work in process by how it’s going so far. If they pull some crazy rabbit out of their hat, then we’ll all applaud. But right now we can all see how close they are to their stated goal of competing, with Pitchers & Catchers right around the corner.
I think JMOH has articulated this pretty well in posts above. As I said before, there might be good baseball reasons (ie the return) to move Jansen, but to clear payroll isn’t one.
"Angrily stomps their feet" is such a reductive way to describe what people are posting. People are describing why they feel that way due to what the sources that we have available are telling us (Rosenthal, Speier, Cotillo, McAdam).
No one is making anything up or yelling for no reason. You clearly don't agree with it but there is a reason behind the posts.
As @OCD SS said, if those sources turn out to be wrong then we will all applaud (and I for one will admit that I was wrong) but the process right now doesn't look great.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1756057479215976833?s=46
I just don’t see a match here unless it’s a really expanded trade. The Padres need more pitching not less.
I just don’t see a match here unless it’s a really expanded trade. The Padres need more pitching not less.
It’s not even a matter of the sources being wrong; opportunities open up over time and directions change. But that directions may change in the future doesn’t mean we can’t honestly assess what’s been done up to the present…
MLB FA tracker - a decent number of names are still on the board at this point. https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-24-mlb-free-agents-by-position
It doesn't have to be an expanded trade they just flip a pitching prospect who probably won't be ready this year, like Snelling, Mazur, Lesko, or Thorpe.
Their most tradeable pitchers are still a way off though, which seems like it makes sense for a guy with uncertain MLB production like Duran.
Thanks, I was totally unaware of that!
And I just realized that the Sox could potentially trade players to get other players! I guess there are nearly infinite possibilities for them to improve them team!
I guess there really is no basis for thinking they haven’t done that much to improve the team so far when they’re in such a competitive division. Thanks for setting me straight.
I just don’t see a world they trade from that group given their current major league starting pitching roster.
If you can grab Snelling it’s a complete no brainer.
Don't be a dick. It's just an informational post for people who what to see what's still available.
I feel similarly about Rafaela, who is also 23 years old with only 199 ABs at the AAA level. Now is not the time to try to exploit his versatility by having him hit from multiple spots in the lineup and field a variety of positions at the ML level.
All of the is likely to hinge the amount of cash (if any) that moves with Jansen.
Woah! C’mon man you posted a list (well, a link to a list), and it has over 20 starting pitchers* on it! I’ve been diving in because I had no idea this much talent was still available, and I’ve heard that starting pitchers are an area of need for the Sox!
Did you know that Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there? Maybe they could help the Red Sox, what do you think it would take to sign them?
* I think it’s over 20, I kind of lost count there after I came across Corey Kluber being listed as retired. But still, that’s some list. It was super helpful and I’m glad you posted it.
Edit: still, there are a ton of options the Red Sox could sign to help their pitching. That’s great stuff.
Imagine, over 20 pitchers. I wonder what Breslow will do?
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Not much of a rumor, but it's something I guess.
A self-described "Phillies insider" Xed that the Phillies are interested in Jansen and he thinks they should trade Taijuan Walker to Boston in return and then sign Snell or Montgomery:
View: https://twitter.com/ArcainiLuke/status/1756009944128668056
Luke Arcaini:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walketa01.shtml
Ye Olde Baseball Trade Simulator scores that swap of negative contracts as a moderate overpay by the Red Sox.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator
The simulator only has Orion Kerkering as a 4.1 in surplus value, so maybe the Phils should have to throw him in to the deal to even it out. (I highly doubt they would do that in real life.)
A self-described "Phillies insider" Xed that the Phillies are interested in Jansen and he thinks they should trade Taijuan Walker to Boston in return and then sign Snell or Montgomery:
View: https://twitter.com/ArcainiLuke/status/1756009944128668056
Luke Arcaini:
Walker is owed $54 million more over the next 3 years for his age 31 to 33 seasons. The $18 million per season for a pitcher in his 30s part doesn't seem like something the Red Sox would be interested in, but on the other hand, it's only 3 years not 6, and Breslow specifically mentioned they were looking for multiple years of control if trading for a starting pitcher. And if they traded Jansen for him, then the first year would net out to only $2 million.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walketa01.shtml
Ye Olde Baseball Trade Simulator scores that swap of negative contracts as a moderate overpay by the Red Sox.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator
The simulator only has Orion Kerkering as a 4.1 in surplus value, so maybe the Phils should have to throw him in to the deal to even it out. (I highly doubt they would do that in real life.)
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Jansen for Walker isn’t very exciting, but seems like a fair deal. I’d want to know more about why the Phillies didn’t really pitch him at all in the playoffs, but if Breslow and Bailey like him…if we consider the salaries a wash this year, would you want Walker at 2 more years for $40M? Maybe? I don’t feel especially great or terrible about that, I guess….but a guy who can give 160 league averagish innings is probably more useful to this team than a closer.
Trading an asset for Walker when you can just sign Montgomery seems like really overthinking things.
I know that the Sox have more outfielders than pitching but am I alone in wanting to see what Duran can do this year? He is an exciting player to watch.
You’re not alone. The Sox just really like to push how far “rooting for the laundry” can go.
The issue for the Padres is they really only have one outfielder at the moment.
Agreed. Trading for Walker when you can sign Ryu might even be overthinking things, but I'm not high on Walker.
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