Offseason Q&A w/ Doug Kyed at NESN - THANKS TO ALL!

[SeoulSoxFan]

Doug Kyed at NESN, who had an awesome Q&A in October, has agreed to do a follow-up / offseason chat (time TBD).
 
In case you've missed it, here's the previous chat: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/79820-chat-with-doug-kyed-patriots-beat-reporter-at-nesn-thank-you-doug/?hl=%2Bdoug+%2Bkyed
 
So start posting your questions here, and Doug will come on board at a pre-determined date & time to give his usual thoughtful analysis (along with a sharp sense of humor).
 
---
 
About Doug:
 
Besides being the NFL/Pats writer for NESN, he's also quite familiar with Pats' draft history personnel as he's a former editor at the excellent NEPatriotsDraft.com. Here's his full bio:  http://nesn.com/authors/doug-kyed/
 

Doug Kyed covers the New England Patriots for NESN.com. He came to NESN after serving as an editor for two years at NEPatriotsDraft.com, where he covered the Patriots and the NFL Draft. He previously freelanced for Gatehouse Media and ESPNBoston.com, covering high school sports. The Edmonds, Wash., and Sharon, Mass., native graduated from Emerson College in 2008 with a B.S. in Broadcast Journalism.

 
You can follow Doug at @DougKyedNESN

 

[dbn]

Hi again, Doug. It's great that you take the time to do these. Thanks.
 
Obviously we need to ask about Dante Scarnecchia's retirement. Around these parts, he is thought very highly of. Any idea about possible replacements? Do you think that they've been grooming anyone for the role? Any other thoughts on the end of the Dante era?
 
[edit: thanks JohnnyK]

 

[JohnnyK]

 
Any idea about possible replacements? Do you think that they've been grooming anyone for the role?

Dave DeGuglielmo is already hired as his replacement.
 
Question for Doug: What should the ideal Wilfork deal look like? Ben Volin suggests a 5-year restructured deal to spread out the guaranteed money, with a cap number for next year in the 4-5 mill. range, which strikes me as a rather un-Patriotlike deal.
 
Also, any reason to believe Edelman or Blount would take a discount to stay in NE?

 

[Bellhorn]

Doug, what is your evaluation of Alfonzo Dennard at this point? He has looked like a solid starter (at the very least) for most of his first two years, but some of the recent games were none too encouraging. Was this just a case of not being physically 100% combined with bad receiver match-ups (hello, Demaryius Thomas), or did you see any signs of a sophomore slump? If Talib does not return, how confident are you in Dennard/Ryan as a starting CB tandem?

Thanks for your time.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Doug,

What are your initial pre draft thoughts? What do you think their top priorities are? Hear any buzz about any particular prospects?

On a similar note, do you have any pending free agents earmarked as someone BB will go for?
 
Might as well add this one: What is your take on the whole Amendola - Brady possible trust issue brouhaha? 
 
Thanks again for doing this!

 

[Reverend]

Hi again, Doug. It's great that you take the time to do these. Thanks.
 
Obviously we need to ask about Dante Scarnecchia's retirement. Around these parts, he is thought very highly of. Any idea about possible replacements? Do you think that they've been grooming anyone for the role? Any other thoughts on the end of the Dante era?
 
[edit: thanks JohnnyK]

 
Now we can see if his answer differs from Volin's. Journalist fight!!

 

[soxfan121]

Doug, thanks for doing this Q&A.
 
What insight can you give us about the Patriots personnel decision-making process? There's been some question about how involved certain coaches (Scarnecchia, McDaniels) are in the acquisition and scouting of potential players. What, exactly, is Nick Caserio's role in the process? If Caserio leaves for Miami, who is "the next man up" in the player-personnel hierarchy?
 
And, in your opinion, has Belichick "The GM" created problems through FA signings/draft pick mistakes for Belichick "The Coach"? If you can, please focus this answer on the safety position where FA signings (Adrian Wilson, Steve Gregory) and draft mistakes (Tavon Wilson? Brandon Meriweather) have been a particular sore spot for some fans.
 
Thanks!

 

[tims4wins]

Doug, settle a message board debate: what could the Pats expect back if they put Ridley on the market?

 

[Shelterdog]

Doug, you seem to think pretty highly of Hightower. What do you see that most fans are missing? Do you know what BB sees in him?

 

[BigJimEd]

As you said the DT position is either loaded or vacant depending on how you look a t it. Armstead is one piece of that puzzle many were high last off season. Any news on him? What do you think of his outlook for next season?

Do you think the Pats will look to trade Mallet or do they hold onto him for one more year? In other words, what do you think his value is around the league? No, I'm not suggesting Larry Fitz. But what type of pick could he get and is it worth it for the Pats?

Do the Pats look at some mid round QB's in this draft? Any names?

What percentage do you put on Spikes being re-signed? < 10%, < 30%, 50/50, >75%?

What percentage do you put on Talib receiving the franchise tag? Do you think the Pats will re-sign him long term?

Who are a couple of your favorite draft prospects this year, not necessarily for the Patriots but who do you like overall?

 

[Super Nomario]

After Wilfork and Kelly went down, the Pats seemed to play more 3-man fronts. Do you expect that to continue with those guys returning, or do you expect more of the 4-man fronts we've seen the past couple years?
 
Do you expect Mayo, Wilfork, Kelly, and Vollmer to be healthy for camp next year?

 

[triniSox]

Doug, I'm a big fan of your work.
 
What do you make of Brady's long-ball struggles? It doesn't seem to be a matter of arm-strength obviously since many of them are overthrows. Is it a mechanical accuracy issue? Receivers and QB not on the same page? Overly cautious? Not trusting his receiver to fight for 50-50 balls? Lack of rhythm from Brady since it's an infrequent throw?
 
On tape, can you tell if Nink and Jones are tiring? Would a legit 3rd edge rusher help the pass rush a lot?

 

[Tony C]

Thanks, Doug. Loved your last Q & A and thought your position on Hightower held up particularly well.
 
Two quick questions:
 
1: When do insiders believe BB will retire?
2: Where would you rank Brady as an NFL QB compared to his peers next year: top 5? top 10? top 50%? Lower? (And are there significantly different opinions on this among scouts?)

 

[ShaneTrot]

Doug, thanks for doing this.
 
1. Do you think the Pats will upgrade at Center and/or Right Guard this off-season? When they lost in 2013-4 it seemed that Wendell and Connolly were getting pushed around. Cannon played well in Vollmer's place, is he a tackle only?
2. Hoomanawanui gets roasted on Pro Football Focus for his blocking but when I watch him in isolation he seems to do alright unless he has to take on a bigger man. Your thoughts? I like the guy as a back up TE.
3. One thing that the Pats do that drives me crazy is they let Jones and Ninkovich play all the snaps. Very few teams do this with defensive linemen, why don't they substitute more to keep these guys fresh? I know Buchanan and Carter are not great but they can contribute. They certainly need another edge rusher.
4. BB has a very young roster, and some of these guys are quite good, who makes the jump next year from starter to star, and back up to starter?
Thanks

 

[Royal Reader]

Doug, do you see this offseason as more akin to the one after the 2011 Super Bowl loss, where most of the important pieces were in place and all that was needed was a couple small additions and good health, or the post-2009 offseason where major impact pieces needed to be added to return the team to the NFL's top rank? If the latter, what is the glaring weakness that is likely to keep the pats off the shortlist of SB favorites? 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Woot! Doug has set a time for his turn:
 
Wednesday (2/5) at 1pm ET
 
Thanks to Doug & the posters for some terrific questions so far!

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Doug - Are you surprised at how the Super Bowl turned out?
 
Was the result Seattle's defense being superior or more Manning having a bad game/not a great gameplan from the Broncos?
 
Thanks.

 

[Pxer]

We've heard recent reports of how excited Adrian Wilson is to resume his career. Is there any way he doesn't get cut by the Pats this year?
 
 
With all the quality CBs on the market, would the Patriots look at another top-notch cornerback to sign who might stay healthier than Aqib Talib or do you think the Pats would only consider him or otherwise roll with Ryan/Dennard/Arrington  as starters?
 
 
Seeing Wilfork with the team all season even though he was injured was exemplary of his work ethic, and dedication to the team and its players. Do you see a future in coaching for the big fella -- has he expressed interest once his playing days are over?
 
 
Is there room for a flashy DE signing (Jared Allen, Michael Johnson, Antonio Smith) who might be able to provide much-needed pass rush help with both Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich on the roster or do you see the Pats going to deep depth / draft route?

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Doug, It seems to me that an overriding factor on the success or failure of an offensive minded team, is the ability to protect a pocket passer.  Two most relevant examples of failure to do that would be Pats/Giants and Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowls. If you could invest resources in only one of the Pats lines, which would you improve?  The D's ability to get to the QB, or the offensive lines ability to protect Brady?

 

[jsinger121]

Doug, Would you make a run at Justin Tuck to play in the middle of the defensive line as well as an end position?

 

[soxhop411]

Did I miss the chat?
 
 
Anyway, is this the offseason where Ryan Mallet will be moved?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Did I miss the chat?
 
Anyway, is this the offseason where Ryan Mallet will be moved?

 
This one's on me -- my apologies to all.
 
I did ask Doug to come on board (even if it's not a specific time) to add his responses, so hopefully we'll still have some good conversations going.

 

[dougkyed]

Sorry guys! I'd be lying if I said I didn't totally forgot about this today. I remembered last night, but apparently it was about 12 hours too early. I'm going to jump in and answer a few questions tonight and keep it going for the next few days.

 

[dougkyed]

Hi again, Doug. It's great that you take the time to do these. Thanks.
 
Obviously we need to ask about Dante Scarnecchia's retirement. Around these parts, he is thought very highly of. Any idea about possible replacements? Do you think that they've been grooming anyone for the role? Any other thoughts on the end of the Dante era?
 
[edit: thanks JohnnyK]

He'll definitely be missed. The offensive line already struggled a little more than usual in 2013, so if they get off to another slow start in 2014, fans might start to freak out a little bit. It would be impossible for Dave DeGuglielmo (I really need to learn to write that without looking it up) to be an improvement over Scar. The fact that Brian Daboll is still around (for now) is definitely good and leaves another coach to transition the players between Scar and DeGuglielmo.
 
If the exact same starters were coming back in 2014, it would be one thing. But I expect either Wendell or Connolly to be gone next year. The Patriots just have to hope that Cannon can continue to progress under a new coach. The Patriots can't rely on just bringing in a bunch of undrafted guys and expect them to be consistent starters anymore.

 

[dougkyed]

Question for Doug: What should the ideal Wilfork deal look like? Ben Volin suggests a 5-year restructured deal to spread out the guaranteed money, with a cap number for next year in the 4-5 mill. range, which strikes me as a rather un-Patriotlike deal.
 
Also, any reason to believe Edelman or Blount would take a discount to stay in NE?

Five years seems like a lot. I'd expect something more in the three-year range, because Vince isn't dumb. If he's being extended for five years, he's not going to be seeing the end of that deal. If he's signing a five year deal, the last year might as well guarantee him a stable full of unicorns.
 
I'd be a little surprised if Wilfork takes a paycut in 2014. To be safe, I'd say Wilfork's signing bonus gets pushed down, which means the Patriots would save $3.6 million, which is still a lot of money to save.
 
It's possible, but probably unlikely. Edelman shares an agent with Tom Brady, so maybe something can be worked out there. It's obviously in Brady's best interest to have Edelman back. And it's in Brady's agent's best interest to make his No. 1 client happy.
 
If Talib comes back, Blount could be back on a discount, but this is the time for both players to cash in. Edelman's coming off his best season and Blount's coming off a tear to end the year.

 

[dougkyed]

Doug, what is your evaluation of Alfonzo Dennard at this point? He has looked like a solid starter (at the very least) for most of his first two years, but some of the recent games were none too encouraging. Was this just a case of not being physically 100% combined with bad receiver match-ups (hello, Demaryius Thomas), or did you see any signs of a sophomore slump? If Talib does not return, how confident are you in Dennard/Ryan as a starting CB tandem?

Thanks for your time.

I think Dennard's been solid. He dealt with some unfortunate injuries in 2013 and I think his knee and shoulder did hold him back a little bit. The shoulder has been a long-term issue for Dennard that dates back to college. Perhaps he'll need surgery at some poitn or maybe it will always be an issue. Shoulders can be weird.
 
If Talib doesn't come back, I think the Patriots need to go to zone (unless they sign another No. 1 guy like Verner or Rodgers-Cromartie). I think the Patriots can be successful in a zone with Ryan, Arrington and Dennard. It would help if they had another top-tier safety if they go zone. Jairus Byrd and T.J. Ward are available...
 
I like Duron Harmon, but Talib's talent would need to be replaced.
 
EDIT: I also think there are limitations to Dennard's game. He'll probably never be overly successful against a guy like Thomas. The Patriots should have changed their defense when Talib got hurt in the AFCCG. Sticking Dennard on Thomas like he was Talib didn't make sense.

 

[mwonow]

Quick question on the D - are the issues personnel or scheme? Seems like the Pats don't really attack like top Ds do. Is this because BB prefers a more structured approach? Because they lack horses? Bit of both?

 

[dougkyed]

Doug,

What are your initial pre draft thoughts? What do you think their top priorities are? Hear any buzz about any particular prospects?

On a similar note, do you have any pending free agents earmarked as someone BB will go for?
 
Might as well add this one: What is your take on the whole Amendola - Brady possible trust issue brouhaha? 
 
Thanks again for doing this!

 
I think they need to go after a tight end or defensive tackle with that No. 1 pick. There are some great prospects at those positions and seem like good fits for the Patriots. Troy Niklas, C.J. Fiedorowicz (not a first-round prospect), Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt all come from schools that Belichick has a good relationship with. Kirk Ferentz at Iowa coached under Belichick in Cleveland and Brian Kelly of Notre Dame came to a Patriots training camp practice last year. I think Belichick will probably take a few ND players this year.
 
I think Scott Chandler makes a lot of sense at tight end. He fits the mold of what they need and Belichick usually likes players who have done well against the Patriots in the past. If Jared Allen will come at a discount because the Patriots are a winner, I think Belichick would be interested.

Doug, thanks for doing this Q&A.
 
What insight can you give us about the Patriots personnel decision-making process? There's been some question about how involved certain coaches (Scarnecchia, McDaniels) are in the acquisition and scouting of potential players. What, exactly, is Nick Caserio's role in the process? If Caserio leaves for Miami, who is "the next man up" in the player-personnel hierarchy?
 
And, in your opinion, has Belichick "The GM" created problems through FA signings/draft pick mistakes for Belichick "The Coach"? If you can, please focus this answer on the safety position where FA signings (Adrian Wilson, Steve Gregory) and draft mistakes (Tavon Wilson? Brandon Meriweather) have been a particular sore spot for some fans.
 
Thanks!

 
It seems that Belichick has the majority of the power in the draft. He has final power and it seems like he utilizes it. I know that Caserio made the deal for Isaac Sopoaga alone. Belichick admitted that in a press conference. So, take that as you will...
 
If Caserio leaves next offseason, either Jon Robinson or Bob Quinn would be the next-man up. If I had to guess, I'd say Quinn would get the job.
 
I think Belichick trusts McDaniels' opinion on players. And looking at some of the players he brought to the Broncos (Decker, Thomas), there's a reason for that. Unfortunately, a lot of the players he's had a say to bring to the Patriots (Salas, Tebow) haven't really worked out.
 
I don't really agree that Belichick the GM has created problems for Belichick the coach. I'm of the opinion that the coach should have final say in acquisitions. I know that it's one example, but the 2013 Seahawks are proof for why that should be the case. Pete Carroll had a vision and he knew which players could carry it out. He had the same vision with the Patriots in the late 90s, but Bob Kraft and Bobby Grier basically crapped all over it by refusing to acquire the right guys.
 
Belichick's had some trouble finding safeties, but I like Harmon and I think Gregory gets a bad rap. He missed a decent chunk of tackles in 2013, but there weren't many big plays that he was responsible for. I'd give Gregory and Harmon positive grades in 2013.

Doug, settle a message board debate: what could the Pats expect back if they put Ridley on the market?

 
That's tough. Maybe a fourth-round pick? I think the Trent Richardson deal kinda messed everything up. And I think that's the only time a running back would be valued as a first-rounder.
 
Running backs are weird, man. I like Ridley, but I don't know why a team would be motivated to give up any more than a fourth-round pick for him. And that might even be high. Running backs are kind of a dime a dozen.
 
So, who won?

Doug, you seem to think pretty highly of Hightower. What do you see that most fans are missing? Do you know what BB sees in him?

I think Hightower got a bad rap for a stretch of bad games in which he admitted he was trying to do too much with Mayo out. I think he was great at the end of the year. He was making big run stops, he had the key interception against the Colts, he's good at pressuring the quarterback, even if he doesn't always get there for the sack.
 
His size/speed combo is really impressive. I think he's good at covering running backs out of the backfield because he can get physical and he has the speed to catch up. He struggles more against tight ends, but that's what Jamie Collins is for.
 
I like Hightower because he's definitely one of the smartest players on the defense. There are times he has to rely on his instincts more, but that seemed to happen at the end of the season. The defense bounced back in the last four or fives weeks of the season (including playoffs) and I think Hightower had a lot to do with that.
 
It will be interesting to see who's playing MLB next year. It could be Mayo with Hightower at SLB and Collins at WLB. They all have the ability to play all three positions, though.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Hey Doug,
 
We have a terrific draft subforum going and one of the topics is the TE group: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/81484-tracking-the-draft-prospects-tight-end/
 
My binky is CJ Fiedorowicz (who you've mentioned as a prospect from the Ferentz tree), who I think will provide an insurance for Gronk as well as contributing to the run & a red zone threat. 
 
Others are hoping for a more move-type TE, like Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Ebron won't get to #29). 
 
If you had to guess, which TE type will BB & McD go for (fully realizing we don't know the fate of Hooman and other FA TEs as of yet)?
 
P.S. Also, after Hernandez Pats will be crazy to take a late-round flyer on Colt Lyerla, right?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Doug,
 
I'll also put you on the spot: what will the final AFCE standing will look like January 2015? (I got Pats > Phins > Bills > Jets). 

 

[mascho]

Doug:

Thanks so much for your time.

As SSF mentioned, in our draft sub forum we all seem to have adopted some favorites in the draft. One of mine is Stanley Jean-Baptiste, the CB from Nebraska. Fits that "Sherman" mold of a big CB. Do you see the Patriots targeting SJB, or another "big" corner, in the draft?

 

[tims4wins]

 

 
That's tough. Maybe a fourth-round pick? I think the Trent Richardson deal kinda messed everything up. And I think that's the only time a running back would be valued as a first-rounder.
 
Running backs are weird, man. I like Ridley, but I don't know why a team would be motivated to give up any more than a fourth-round pick for him. And that might even be high. Running backs are kind of a dime a dozen.
 
So, who won?

 

 
Thanks Doug. Call it a tie. Other guy said 2nd-3rd rounder, I said 5th-6th.
 
Follow-up question: any chance they try to move Ridley, or do you expect him to be on the roster next year? Does it tie into the Blount contract situation at all?

 

[SpacemanzGerbil]

I am retarded and cannot read.

 

[soxfan121]

I think Belichick trusts McDaniels' opinion on players. And looking at some of the players he brought to the Broncos (Decker, Thomas), there's a reason for that. Unfortunately, a lot of the players he's had a say to bring to the Patriots (Salas, Tebow) haven't really worked out.
 
I don't really agree that Belichick the GM has created problems for Belichick the coach. I'm of the opinion that the coach should have final say in acquisitions. I know that it's one example, but the 2013 Seahawks are proof for why that should be the case. Pete Carroll had a vision and he knew which players could carry it out. He had the same vision with the Patriots in the late 90s, but Bob Kraft and Bobby Grier basically crapped all over it by refusing to acquire the right guys.

 
Doug, thanks for the responses to all the questions and to my question in particular. This is a great opportunity for us, so thank you and SSF for setting it up. 
 
1. Can you talk a bit about what you know or understand to be Josh McDaniels responsibilities as the OC? Have they changed since his first go-round in the position? How much does he delegate to or work with the individual position coaches on in a given week? What is his process for drafting the game plan like? Does he have "final say" on the majority of play calls? How much does Brady audible and how much freedom to audible does Brady have? 
 
2. Regarding the 2013 Seahawks (a big topic here for the last week) - how much is Pete Carroll and how much is John Schneider? Does Pete really have final say or has he been blessed with a great judge of talent (Schneider) who has had a couple of remarkable drafts in a row?
 
2a. As for your assessment of Carroll and the Patriots - he inherited a Super Bowl contender. Granted, Grier (and the Krafts) screwed up several drafts in a row but that should not have affected Pete's teams as much as it should have affected the next guy's teams (bare cupboard, needing to sign ~17 veteran free agents to supplement what was, still, a Super Bowl quality defensive core). Carroll deserves credit for what he's done in Seattle but I'm not sure he gets full credit and I'm damned sure he gets no credit for his dismal performance as the HC of the Patriots. Revisionist history says Pete would have been great if Grier got him "his guys". Fact is, Pete screwed up a defensive core of McGinest-Bruschi-Law-Milloy as badly as anyone could have and they proved it by hauling a rookie QB to a Super Bowl the minute Pete left. 
 
3. What is your opinion of Siliga? He seemed to plug the hole in the middle of the defense after being signed to prevent another team from swiping him off the PS. He certainly out performed Sopoaga, rendering him a likely cap cut. 
 
3a. How about a take on the rookie seasons of Chris Jones and Joe Vellano? Will they be back next season as DL depth? What is the state of the DL group - does Wilfork return? Does Kelly return? Is Armond Armstead a yeti? 

 

[dougkyed]

As you said the DT position is either loaded or vacant depending on how you look a t it. Armstead is one piece of that puzzle many were high last off season. Any news on him? What do you think of his outlook for next season?

Do you think the Pats will look to trade Mallet or do they hold onto him for one more year? In other words, what do you think his value is around the league? No, I'm not suggesting Larry Fitz. But what type of pick could he get and is it worth it for the Pats?

Do the Pats look at some mid round QB's in this draft? Any names?

What percentage do you put on Spikes being re-signed? < 10%, < 30%, 50/50, >75%?

What percentage do you put on Talib receiving the franchise tag? Do you think the Pats will re-sign him long term?

Who are a couple of your favorite draft prospects this year, not necessarily for the Patriots but who do you like overall?

 
-The Patriots are being extremely secretive on Armstead. I will say that I never saw him walking around in a sling, cast, boot, etc. I think the team probably still expects him to play next season, since he was kept around all year. The team had high hopes for him to be the No. 3 defensive tackle in 2013, but that obviously did not work out. I think if Armstead contributes next season it should be looked at a plus. The Patriots should go into training camp with four serviceable defensive tackles -- and Armstead.
 
-The Patriots will definitely look to trade Mallett, we'll see if they can get acceptable compensation for him, however, There are a few teams out there, like the Browns and Texans who could be interested, but they would be fortunate to get the third-round pick back for him. There's not a huge market for backup quarterbacks who have never started a game and struggle in training camp and preseason. Shocking. I know.
 
-If the Patriots are able to trade Mallett, yes. I think they definitely draft a midround quarterback to groom under Brady. AJ McCarron, David Fales, Aaron Murray are some names I think woudl fit. If they don't trade Mallett, I think they sign an undrafted guy to compete with Mallett and potentially store on the practice squad. The low-tier WRs need a fair passer this season. A lot of young WRs didn't get a fair shake last summer with that Tebow guy throwing balls at their ankles.
 
-.005%
-5% The Aaron Hernandez cap hit will likely prevent the team from franchising Talib. They simply don't have the cap room. I think they try to sign him to around a three-year deal, but it's a matter of whether a. He'll accept that; and b. If another team offers him more. He's a risky player for a number of reasons. One-year deals are best for him.
 
-I've really only studied the top defensive tackles and tight ends so far, but I like pretty much all the top players at those positions. I'm not crazy about Troy Niklas out of Notre Dame, but I suspect the Patriots might like him. I like Fiedorowicz and Hageman. HaHa Clinton-Dix is a guy I've watched and like.

After Wilfork and Kelly went down, the Pats seemed to play more 3-man fronts. Do you expect that to continue with those guys returning, or do you expect more of the 4-man fronts we've seen the past couple years?
 
Do you expect Mayo, Wilfork, Kelly, and Vollmer to be healthy for camp next year?

 
-They tried the three-man front thing for a while, but it didn't really work, then they went back to a four-man front and it worked again. It depends on who comes in this offseason. If the Patriots are able to acquire another 6-foot-6 defensive tackle and pair him with Kelly, a 3-4 could work. But I think they're much better off running a base 4-3. That's what Ninkovich, Jones and Hightower seem more comfortable playing.
 
If Chandler Jones is able to bulk up and grow into his body a little more this season, I guess I wouldn't be shocked to see a 3-4 with Jones, Wilfork and _______ as the DEs with Collins at WOLB, Nink at SOLB and Mayo and Hightower as the ILBs. That all depends on Chandler, though.
 
-Yeah, I think all of those guys are healthy for camp. There's definitely a question of whether Kelly will be back. I spoke to him the day after the AFC Championship and even he expressed some doubt in whether he would return.

Doug, I'm a big fan of your work.
 
What do you make of Brady's long-ball struggles? It doesn't seem to be a matter of arm-strength obviously since many of them are overthrows. Is it a mechanical accuracy issue? Receivers and QB not on the same page? Overly cautious? Not trusting his receiver to fight for 50-50 balls? Lack of rhythm from Brady since it's an infrequent throw?
 
On tape, can you tell if Nink and Jones are tiring? Would a legit 3rd edge rusher help the pass rush a lot?

Thanks!
 
-I think some of it has to do with arm strength because it's about deep accuracy. It's a lot easier to be accurate downfield when you have a stronger arm with more velocity. I think there is some chemistry issues on the deep balls that plays a role, but Brady is also wisely cautious on his deep balls. He throws them near the sideline so if they're off, it won't result in a turnover/big play.
 
-It's not super obvious that they're tiring because both players have high motors, but I'd say it's obvious that they are looking at stats. The Patriots definitely need a third rusher who can rotate in base and rush from DT on third down. It wouldn't even decrease Nink and Jones' snaps that considerably, but it would be enough even if it was a snap everyone once in a while.

 

[dougkyed]

Thanks, Doug. Loved your last Q & A and thought your position on Hightower held up particularly well.
 
Two quick questions:
 
1: When do insiders believe BB will retire?
2: Where would you rank Brady as an NFL QB compared to his peers next year: top 5? top 10? top 50%? Lower? (And are there significantly different opinions on this among scouts?)

-My guess would be around the age of 65.
 
-I'd still put him No. 2/3. He's behind Manning but probably tied (for now) with Aaron Rodgers. My No. 4 QB is Drew Brees and Russell Wilson is No. 5. I really don't see many signs of Brady getting worse. I think his poor statistical season in 2013 had almost everything to do with his targets around him.
 

Doug, thanks for doing this.
 
1. Do you think the Pats will upgrade at Center and/or Right Guard this off-season? When they lost in 2013-4 it seemed that Wendell and Connolly were getting pushed around. Cannon played well in Vollmer's place, is he a tackle only?
2. Hoomanawanui gets roasted on Pro Football Focus for his blocking but when I watch him in isolation he seems to do alright unless he has to take on a bigger man. Your thoughts? I like the guy as a back up TE.
3. One thing that the Pats do that drives me crazy is they let Jones and Ninkovich play all the snaps. Very few teams do this with defensive linemen, why don't they substitute more to keep these guys fresh? I know Buchanan and Carter are not great but they can contribute. They certainly need another edge rusher.
4. BB has a very young roster, and some of these guys are quite good, who makes the jump next year from starter to star, and back up to starter?
Thanks

-My guess is that Marcus Cannon will start at right guard next season. He played very well for Vollmer at right tackle and I think he's built to play guard. I think either Wendell or Connolly will be brought back, but not both. I think the Patriots will also bring in a player to compete with whomever they bring back.
 
-I think he's fine as a backup TE. The problem is, he's an average blocker and a below average receiver. That's fine for a No. 3 or 4 tight end, but not as a No. 1, obviously. I think Hooman or Mulligan will be brought back to complete for a roster spot in training camp, but not both.
 
-I think the problem was that Buchanan and Carter were too big of a dropoff. The absolutely need a third rusher, preferably in free agency, not in the draft. They need someone who can contribute right away. They need a man that can also play DT, not a kid who needs room to grow.
 
-If I had to pick one for each category, I'd say Chandler Jones goes from starter to star and Duron Harmon goes from backup to starter. Dobson would be somewhere in between.
 

Doug, do you see this offseason as more akin to the one after the 2011 Super Bowl loss, where most of the important pieces were in place and all that was needed was a couple small additions and good health, or the post-2009 offseason where major impact pieces needed to be added to return the team to the NFL's top rank? If the latter, what is the glaring weakness that is likely to keep the pats off the shortlist of SB favorites? 

I think it's the former. Most of the pieces are in place, they just need to get healthy and back to contributing. If even half of those six starters who were on IR played in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots probably could have won. They need to bring back at least one of Edelman and Talib, keep most of the rest of the starters in place and sign one or two more impact players.

 

[dougkyed]

Doug - Are you surprised at how the Super Bowl turned out?
 
Was the result Seattle's defense being superior or more Manning having a bad game/not a great gameplan from the Broncos?
 
Thanks.

I was slightly surprised because I thought it would be closer, but I thought the Seahawks would win.
 
I think the Seahawks would have won regardless, but Manning's start to the game caused the blowout. It was Seattle's defense being superior, though.
 

We've heard recent reports of how excited Adrian Wilson is to resume his career. Is there any way he doesn't get cut by the Pats this year?
 
 
With all the quality CBs on the market, would the Patriots look at another top-notch cornerback to sign who might stay healthier than Aqib Talib or do you think the Pats would only consider him or otherwise roll with Ryan/Dennard/Arrington  as starters?
 
 
Seeing Wilfork with the team all season even though he was injured was exemplary of his work ethic, and dedication to the team and its players. Do you see a future in coaching for the big fella -- has he expressed interest once his playing days are over?
 
 
Is there room for a flashy DE signing (Jared Allen, Michael Johnson, Antonio Smith) who might be able to provide much-needed pass rush help with both Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich on the roster or do you see the Pats going to deep depth / draft route?

 
-Very, very small chance.
 
-I think Talib is more valuable to the Patriots than any other CB out there because he already has chemistry with the rest of the secondary. Signing a Verner, DRC or Grimes would be a backup option if Talib is too pricey.
 
-I could definitely see coaching in his future. Maybe even head coaching. I don't believe he's ever mentioned it, but I could see him being a Pepper Johnson type. Wilfork's teammates really praised his coaching ability this season.
 
-I think after all is said and done there will be room. They'll have to make some cuts and restructures to make it happen, though. I could see Jared Allen coming on. That would mean Chandler Jones moving inside on third down.

Doug, It seems to me that an overriding factor on the success or failure of an offensive minded team, is the ability to protect a pocket passer.  Two most relevant examples of failure to do that would be Pats/Giants and Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowls. If you could invest resources in only one of the Pats lines, which would you improve?  The D's ability to get to the QB, or the offensive lines ability to protect Brady?

-The defense's ability to get after the quarterback. I think the offensive line just needs a couple fixes. The defensive line needs that third rusher and a three-tech DT who can get after the quarterback.
 

Doug, Would you make a run at Justin Tuck to play in the middle of the defensive line as well as an end position?

I think there are better players out there that could do that, but Tuck would probably come as a cheaper option.
 

Did I miss the chat?
 
 
Anyway, is this the offseason where Ryan Mallet will be moved?

Chances are he won't be, just because of how rare it is to see a trade in the NFL. But I think there's a much better chance of it happening this year than in years' past. The fact that he's on the last year of his deal helps negotiations.

 

[dougkyed]

 
Doug, thanks for the responses to all the questions and to my question in particular. This is a great opportunity for us, so thank you and SSF for setting it up. 
 
1. Can you talk a bit about what you know or understand to be Josh McDaniels responsibilities as the OC? Have they changed since his first go-round in the position? How much does he delegate to or work with the individual position coaches on in a given week? What is his process for drafting the game plan like? Does he have "final say" on the majority of play calls? How much does Brady audible and how much freedom to audible does Brady have? 
 
2. Regarding the 2013 Seahawks (a big topic here for the last week) - how much is Pete Carroll and how much is John Schneider? Does Pete really have final say or has he been blessed with a great judge of talent (Schneider) who has had a couple of remarkable drafts in a row?
 
2a. As for your assessment of Carroll and the Patriots - he inherited a Super Bowl contender. Granted, Grier (and the Krafts) screwed up several drafts in a row but that should not have affected Pete's teams as much as it should have affected the next guy's teams (bare cupboard, needing to sign ~17 veteran free agents to supplement what was, still, a Super Bowl quality defensive core). Carroll deserves credit for what he's done in Seattle but I'm not sure he gets full credit and I'm damned sure he gets no credit for his dismal performance as the HC of the Patriots. Revisionist history says Pete would have been great if Grier got him "his guys". Fact is, Pete screwed up a defensive core of McGinest-Bruschi-Law-Milloy as badly as anyone could have and they proved it by hauling a rookie QB to a Super Bowl the minute Pete left. 
 
3. What is your opinion of Siliga? He seemed to plug the hole in the middle of the defense after being signed to prevent another team from swiping him off the PS. He certainly out performed Sopoaga, rendering him a likely cap cut. 
 
3a. How about a take on the rookie seasons of Chris Jones and Joe Vellano? Will they be back next season as DL depth? What is the state of the DL group - does Wilfork return? Does Kelly return? Is Armond Armstead a yeti? 

-I actually don't know on McDaniels. There's certain information that the Patriots simply won't give out and most of those questions would probably be included. I think McDaniels has a lot of say and power over the offense, though. There's a reason Belichick will sometimes turn his back to the field to coach up the defense. I also think Brady has a lot of power to audible out of Josh's calls. Josh definitely has "final say" over his playcalls, though.
 
-It's mostly Carroll. Schneider helps out a lot, obviously. He's the one who loved Russell Wilson, but it's Carroll's vision and he's the one making most of the decisions.
 
-Well, the Patriots went 10-6 in Carroll's first year and he won a playoff game. That's pretty damn good for a first-year (on that team) coach who had to switch defensive alignments. It also didn't help Carroll down the line that guys like Slade dropped off in talent and Willie Clay left. Bringing in a bunch of crappy draft picks and free agents who didn't fit Carroll's vision didn't help anything. Nor did Drew Bledsoe's declining play. Drew was pretty rough in '98 and '99.
 
I don't think Carroll was as good of a head coach when he was in New England as he is in Seattle today, but if he had control over who he was able to bring in, the Patriots wouldn't have gone 8-8 by 1999. It sounds like you have some issues with Carroll. I also don't think going to the playoffs twice and maintaining a 27-21 is "screwing up a defensive core of ... as badly as anyone could have.
 
I'm not sure what you're referring to at the end. Belichick went 5-11 in 2000 and brought a second-year quarterback to a Super Bowl a year after Carroll left.
 
Things obviously went very well for the Patriots in going from Carroll to Belichick, but Carroll's tenure gets crapped on a bit more than it probably should. I don't think he would have brought the Patriots to a Super Bowl if he hadn't been fired. But if Bobby Grier wasn't messing everything up for him? 27-21 could have turned into at least 30-18 or 31-17.
 
-I was impressed with Siliga. If I had to rank defensive tackle performances over the course of the season, it would probably go 1. Kelly, 2. Siliga and 3. Wilfork, since Wilfork didn't seem to be his usual self at the beginning of the season. I fully expect Siliga to be back in 2014 and he'll be quality depth at nose tackle.
 
-Jones and Vellano were OK, but not any more than that. If all goes as planned in the offseason, Vellano will likely be gone next season and Jones will be battling for a roster spot. Wilfork will be back if he's willing to restructure without adding on too much more years. I don't expect Kelly back on his current salary and yes. Armond Armstead is definitely a yeti.

 

[Tony C]

-
 
-I was impressed with Siliga. If I had to rank defensive tackle performances over the course of the season, it would probably go 1. Kelly, 2. Siliga and 3. Wilfork, since Wilfork didn't seem to be his usual self at the beginning of the season. I fully expect Siliga to be back in 2014 and he'll be quality depth at nose tackle.

 
Amen to your common sense answer on Carroll.
 
But what piqued my interest is your answer to this question about Siliga -- I had sort of forgotten about it, but indeed Wilfork did look average at the start of the year. Do you have any sense if he was already dealing with a bad achilles that was impinging his play, or was his lower level of play (over just a few games, of course) unrelated to injury? I'd presume the answer to that question will have a lot to do with how the Pats deal with his contract.

 

[dougkyed]

Quick question on the D - are the issues personnel or scheme? Seems like the Pats don't really attack like top Ds do. Is this because BB prefers a more structured approach? Because they lack horses? Bit of both?

 
I'd say a little bit of both. I think the defense was on its way to be a top five unit before all the injuries in 2013, though. After Wilfork went down, any hope of that went away. It's too bad Tommy Kelly tore his ACL (probably). It's tough for a player his age and size to come back from that injury for a second time.
 
It is odd that Belichick doesn't blitz much, especially since he likes to draft linebackers who CAN blitz. Perhaps we'll see more of that with Collins in 2014.

Hey Doug,
 
We have a terrific draft subforum going and one of the topics is the TE group: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/81484-tracking-the-draft-prospects-tight-end/
 
My binky is CJ Fiedorowicz (who you've mentioned as a prospect from the Ferentz tree), who I think will provide an insurance for Gronk as well as contributing to the run & a red zone threat. 
 
Others are hoping for a more move-type TE, like Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Ebron won't get to #29). 
 
If you had to guess, which TE type will BB & McD go for (fully realizing we don't know the fate of Hooman and other FA TEs as of yet)?
 
P.S. Also, after Hernandez Pats will be crazy to take a late-round flyer on Colt Lyerla, right?

 
Awesome. I'll check it out.
 
Ebron's the only flex tight end that I've seen that could go in the first two or three rounds. ASJ is an inline guy. When he was recruited to UW (I'm a big fan of the Huskies), there was talk of making him a left tackle, rather than a tight end. He has big potential as a blocker, and if anything, his speed could be an issue.
 
I think the Patriots would like to draft a flex TE since Hernandez obviously isn't coming back, but it makes a lot of sense to draft insurance for Gronk too. And any tight end they bring in has the ability to split out if they have the athleticism to do so.
 
I think Patriots fans would have the right to picket Gillette Stadium if Belichick drafts Lyerla.

Doug,
 
I'll also put you on the spot: what will the final AFCE standing will look like January 2015? (I got Pats > Phins > Bills > Jets). 

I'll go: Pats-Jets-Phins-Bills. But the back three are really close going into 2014.
 

Doug:

Thanks so much for your time.

As SSF mentioned, in our draft sub forum we all seem to have adopted some favorites in the draft. One of mine is Stanley Jean-Baptiste, the CB from Nebraska. Fits that "Sherman" mold of a big CB. Do you see the Patriots targeting SJB, or another "big" corner, in the draft?

 
Belichick seemed to be going bigger at cornerback when he drafted Ras-I Dowling and traded for Aqib Talib -- then he drafted Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan and re-signed Kyle Arrington.
 
SJB is a possibility if Talib walks Belichick is confident in Logan Ryan as a starter (which he probably should be).

 
Thanks Doug. Call it a tie. Other guy said 2nd-3rd rounder, I said 5th-6th.
 
Follow-up question: any chance they try to move Ridley, or do you expect him to be on the roster next year? Does it tie into the Blount contract situation at all?

 
I think there's a possibility they could move Ridley, but like all trades, it's not likely. I don't think it's a 100-percent guarantee Ridley will be back in 2014.

I am retarded and cannot read.

That's ok.
 

 
Amen to your common sense answer on Carroll.
 
But what piqued my interest is your answer to this question about Siliga -- I had sort of forgotten about it, but indeed Wilfork did look average at the start of the year. Do you have any sense if he was already dealing with a bad achilles that was impinging his play, or was his lower level of play (over just a few games, of course) unrelated to injury? I'd presume the answer to that question will have a lot to do with how the Pats deal with his contract.

It seemed like he was dealing with a foot injury as far back as the preseason. He skipped the third and fourth preseason games. I think injuries for a 325-pound, 32-year-old nose tackle are always a concern, though.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Hey Doug,
 
Any chance the Pats take a look at Dennis Pitta this offseason? Seems as if he could fit the "move" TE in their offense very nicely (assuming that position even exists still, as it certainly did not in 2014)

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
I think there's a possibility they could move Ridley, but like all trades, it's not likely. I don't think it's a 100-percent guarantee Ridley will be back in 2014.
That's ok.

 
What gives you a sense that Ridley won't be back in 2014?  I'd assume that if Blount is gone, then Ridley is a lock.  If Blount is retained and Ridley is cut lose, then what would the plan be at RB?  Blout, Vereen, Bolden, Rookie or Free Agent? 
Personally I don't think they sign both Vereen and Ridley to 2nd contracts (my guess is that Vereen gets a second deal and Ridley does not), so I could see them drafting a RB this year, but I assumed it would be Bolden moving on and not Ridley.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Alright -- I think that's it. 
 
THANK YOU to all posters and especially Doug for participating once again!