NY bullpen 2018

jon abbey

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Buster Olney started his offseason positional rankings this week, today he did his top 10 relievers plus 7 additional ones. 12 teams have one reliever listed (Kimbrel is #2 behind Jansen), and NY has the other 5 (Chapman-7, Robertson-9, Green-10, Kahnle and Betances in the additional 7). That is, um, pretty pretty pretty good, to quote Larry David, and again a tribute to Cashman for snagging two of those guys for Blake Rutherford and lesser prospects.
 

jon abbey

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He gets maybe the longest writeup of anyone, I will repost that part here so you can see Olney's reasoning:

==================================

Dellin Betances, New York Yankees: By the end of last year’s American League Championship Series, his manager stopped using him in meaningful situations because he couldn’t throw strikes. But this is how good Betances is, how difficult he is to hit: Twenty-nine other teams would love to have the opportunity to get him back on track. “Hell, we’d take him,” a rival manager said last season. “Think they’d move him?”

He’s 6-foot-8 and throws 98 mph, with a breaking ball about 12-15 mph slower, which means that the best hope for a lot of hitters is that Betances will lose the strike zone and they’ll draw a walk. Last season, Betances generated the highest rate of soft contact, and it wasn’t close.

The Yankees have the bullpen depth to cover for Betances if he cannot recover his command in 2018, and really, he has more to lose than they do. If he bounces back, he will be the No. 1 free-agent reliever available after the 2019 season, at age 31, with tens of millions of dollars at stake.
 

jon abbey

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Dan Szymborski‏Verified account @DSzymborski 37m37 minutes ago

ZiPS loves the Yankee bullpen so much that I'm wondering if Jeter traded it to them.

In fact, I don't believe ZiPS has ever projected a bullpen to be better than the 2018 Yankees and I don't believe it's even particularly close.

Putting it in less vague terms: ZiPS projects 10 pitchers on the Yankees 40-man as relievers. Their projected ERA+ in descending order: 177, 159, 146, 145, 136, 129, 125, 120, 112, 112.

The last set of tweets may sound like a Yankee fan, but I'm just an increasingly depressed O's sorta-fan.
 

jon abbey

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Here are Olney's rankings for anyone interested:

1. Kenley Jansen (LAD)
2. Craig Kimbrel (BOS)
3. Andrew Miller (CLE)
4. Wade Davis (COL)
5. Corey Knebel (MIL)
6. Archie Bradley (ARI)
7. Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
8. Sean Doolittle (WAS)
9. David Robertson (NYY)
10. Chad Green (NYY)

Best of the rest:

Cody Allen, CLE
Felipe Rivero, PIT
Roberto Osuna, TOR
Tommy Kahnle, NYY
Dellin Betances, NYY
Pat Neshek, PHI
Brad Hand, SD
 

BigMike

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See how can the Yankee bullpen be all that good when they don't have a single one of the top 6 relievers in the game :)
 

jon abbey

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Bump, to try to get more of a feel for the depth:

Locks to make the team: Warren, Green, Betances, Kahnle, Robertson, Chapman
Seeming frontrunner for the last spot: Shreve
Other relievers on the 40 man already: Heller, Holder, Gallegos, Loaisiga
Other relievers not on the 40 man: Cody Carroll
Current SPs on the 40 man who are potential Chad Green-style multi-inning candidates: German, Acevedo

Maybe I'm forgetting someone, but that is most of them at least.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I have been slammed at work and haven't paid attention to anything other than what you guys have been posting. So potentially dumb question, but is Green still being looked at as a starter?
 

jon abbey

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I have been slammed at work and haven't paid attention to anything other than what you guys have been posting. So potentially dumb question, but is Green still being looked at as a starter?
Pretty much no, Boone said after his last outing that wasn't happening.
 

jon abbey

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Shreve is the Torreyes of the pitching staff, still somehow around despite increasing competition. He is a second lefty besides Chapman, not that they need that, but he is out of options and has been very good in the spring (6.2 3 0 0 3 7), so the 7th spot is his, at least temporarily.

I said it a few places but I guess not in this thread, I would have moved Warren and auditioned some of my high-ceiling guys for the 6th and 7th spots this season, since the first five guys are so good (Acevedo is the one I most want to see, and he is already on the 40 man). They need more guys in place long-term with Warren and Robertson as FAs after 2018 and Betances after 2019, and actually Robertson has looked so good since coming back that I might offer him an extension now through 2020, 2/23 which would keep the same AAV (his previous deal was 4/46).

That might be good for both sides, Robertson doesn't have to worry about dealing with who knows what version of a FA market next winter and gets more security in a place he obviously likes. It wouldn't change NY's money situation this year and they have plenty of money to spend going forward. He was NY's most reliable guy down the stretch last year, the two longest outings of his career in NY's first two winner-take-all games against MIN and CLE, a ridiculous 6 scoreless innings in those two games combined. Anyway, just a thought.
 

jon abbey

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Huh? Do you mean Betances’ inability to hold anyone on? That is entirely on him, not Sanchez, who actually made one of the best plays I’ve ever seen to get Granderson in Betances’ first inning.


He had no chance with Pillar, who is an actual speed threat.
 

jon abbey

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That was a bomb (455) to beat his old team, he actually jumped in the air with happiness between third and home.
 
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Murderer's Crow

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So, what do we have with Betances? I was looking at his pitch sequence last night and I’m really not sure his breaking ball is good enough to rely on it as heavily. 1 fastball in 10 pitches for someone who is primarily known for their velocity? Are they trying to work out his kinks in a game with a big lead?

 

jon abbey

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I really don't get why Chasen Shreve is still clogging a spot on the roster. He doesn't have options but he is not good, he is a lefty but he is not any better against lefty hitters. Trade him to one of the teams desperate for bullpen help and start auditioning some of the guys in the minors.

Current bullpen minus Shreve:

Cole (needed as an emergency SP option, has to stay on the roster because no options)
Warren
Holder
Green
Robertson
Betances
Chapman

Guys in the minors:

Kahnle, Gallegos, Acevedo (on the 40 man, could be used now)
Abreu, Loaisiga (on the 40 man, very unlikely to be used now)
Carroll, Feyereisen (both relievers who have pitched great in AAA, 1.75 and 1.73 ERA respectively)

Carroll and Acevedo are the main guys I'd like to see, Kahnle of course too when if and when he is healthy again. Thanks in advance, Brian.
 

jon abbey

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Somehow Shreve is still around, and getting worse. Terry said in the game thread he is expecting Justus Sheffield to eventually fill the second lefty role down the stretch. That is possible, here are two other pure relief candidates, both in AA:

1) 25 year old Stephen Tarpley, one of the two guys they got from PIT in the Ivan Nova deal, he has a 1.08 ERA in high A/AA the last two seasons, 72/32 K/BB ratio.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605501#/career/R/pitching/2018/ALL

2) 25 year old Caleb Frare, who has even better numbers this year, a 0.54 ERA in 33 innings, .181 BAA and a 44/11 K/BB ratio.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=621350#/career/R/pitching/2018/ALL
 

jon abbey

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Although it was funny that he started that piece by making the point that they were lined up together and then NY proceeded to hold Sheffield back two days for no announced reason.
 

jon abbey

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Jonathan Holder is somewhat quietly having an insanely good year. He had two terrible outings in early April, got sent down to AAA, and started throwing a slider for the first time in his life. He was called back up on 4/21 and has been absolutely dominant since then, 22 scoreless outings in a row for a combined 26.2 9 3 0 3 25. Even with his two shitty outings early on, he is leading the entire AL in WHIP at 0.68, 20 innings minimum.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/sort/WHIP/order/false/minip/20
 

jon abbey

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So with the acquisition of Britton, NY's bullpen is currently:

R Cole
R Warren
R Holder
R Robertson
R Green
L Britton
R Betances
L Chapman

Plus Shreve plus Kahnle in AAA still.

Shreve has to be dealt, I'd trade Warren too (contract up after this season) and bring back Kahnle. That is an insane bullpen, Cole has a sub-1 ERA for NY and Holder has been amazing since coming back up in late April.
 

jon abbey

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I bet you could even make a case now for NY going with a full bullpen game if they are in the wild card game, you could put maybe 12 guys in the bullpen and then if they win, the rotation is in much better shape. Also they have played two of those in the last three years and neither Severino nor Tanaka did so well, so that is another factor. CC for one time through the order to start would also be interesting, then the bullpen.
 

wallypip

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I'm interested to see how Boone uses Britton. As a top level closer it makes sense to just give him his setup inning and let him close a full frame for you. However, every other pitcher in the bullpen has strikeout/flyball tendencies and Britton is a ground ball machine. It would be awesome if Britton is able to adjust to coming into a double play situations or matchup against a lefty when they need it.
 

jon abbey

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NY still with plenty of relief depth after the trade, these guys are all in the Scranton bullpen currently (in addition to Kahnle):

LHP Caleb Frare: Just up from AA to AAA. Had 0.62 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 57 K in 44 IP at Trenton.

LHP Stephen Tarpley: 1.42 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 50.2 IP between AA/AAA.

RHP Raynel Espinal: 2.13 ERA, 67 K in 51 IP at AAA.

RHP JP Feyereisen: 2.25 ERA in 48 IP in AAA.
 

jon abbey

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And Caleb Frare traded to the White Sox for $1.5M in international spending money, good news for Tarpley's future with NY.