Your post indicates that they have been resting on this approach. What do you mean by that? What are some examples?
Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years
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Multiple times in this thread alone there have been clear mentions of pitching to free agents, like YY, that the Sox have one four World Series titles in the past 20 years. And, you cannot serve snacks when the players aren't even coming to town to meet with you.
All reports on Snell seem to be that he would prefer a West Coast team if at all possible.
I wonder if having a new, first time GM played a role when the Yankees and Dodgers have more stability and proven winners at the helm. Breslow might be very good, but if he’s not, that’s the first 3-5 years of YY’s career in last place and then the turmoil of starting over with the replacement GM.
Outside of offering the most money, I really don’t see what would make Boston the choice at this point in the franchise’s life cycle.
Outside of offering the most money, I really don’t see what would make Boston the choice at this point in the franchise’s life cycle.
I mean I’d prefer to be on the west coast myself but they pay me a lot to stay here.
That's exactly what John Henry and the Sox did back in 2008 after returning from their meeting in Dallas with Mark Teixeira when they realized they were just being used by Teixeira and Boras to get the Yanks' offer up:
edit: with that said, I don't think that necessarily tells us anything about how the Sox might look to do pre-emptive PR damage control if they sense they're out of the running for Yamamoto.
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No one in this thread is pitching to free agents on behalf of the Sox, regardless of how clear the mentions are here. There is literally no indication, or really any rational belief, that this is the "approach" that the Sox are taking. It's not really even an approach.
I’m just saying that’s what it’s going to take. If they don’t want to do that, they’re just shooting them selves in the foot when their investment goes to shit.
They better get really good at player development.
I am really not trying to be snarky or argue with you, I promise.
From my perspective, this organization has figured out that they have a deeply loyal fan base and play their games in the summer in one of the best cities on the East Coast that is a tourist attraction. I don’t have any numbers at my hand, but I don’t think they’re losing money and are perfectly happy putting out the product we all continue to support.
Neither Devers nor Yoshida required the wooing or bidding war we’ve seen for the free agents who garner all the big teams’ financial attention. Devers was extended and Yoshida had an average season at best.
Name the last big name to choose Boston over another organization.
Boston's offer to Yoshida was so far beyond what he was expected to get that he signed immediately and the bidding didn't have time to develop. I think that is clearly a situation where Boston flexed their financial muscle to pay the most money to a guy they really wanted.
I think the answer is David Price, but that seemed to be a highest bidder thing, he signed on Dec 1. NYY were not in on him, the Wilpons still owned the Mets and LAD said later he was their second choice behind Greinke, who they signed.
The only two FAs that NYY and LAD have both gone full blast after in recent years have been Cole and Yamamoto, Ohtani the first time also but NYY were ruled out early there.
(Sorry, dunno why that is formatting like that but it's a link that documents the Price FA process some.)
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2582868-report-red-sox-to-bid-highest-on-price
The only two FAs that NYY and LAD have both gone full blast after in recent years have been Cole and Yamamoto, Ohtani the first time also but NYY were ruled out early there.
(Sorry, dunno why that is formatting like that but it's a link that documents the Price FA process some.)
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2582868-report-red-sox-to-bid-highest-on-price
seems like you are just arguing in bad faith now.
Why dont you tell us which FA’s you are referring to.
And no Xander does not count because SD threw stupid money at him that boston would have been idiots to try and match. (And xander would have been stupid to turn down)
the red sox went hard after Ohtani when he first came stateside, but he chose the west coast, which again means it came down to more than money
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/12/03/ohtani-rules-out-yanks-red-sox-prefers-west-coast/108292204/
I am not the one arguing in bad faith here, you just literally took off two of the biggest free agent names from the past couple seasons, and told me I’m not allowed to reference them. And aside from them, name any other free agent that the Red Sox were reportedly in on who never ended up in Boston. I don’t need to prepare that list for you because it’s a long one. And, from all indications, YY will join this list.
And this doesn’t even begin to tap into the trade deadline inaction by this organization, and allowing players like Mookie Betts to leave. I truly believe there’s more to be argued on the side of what I’m saying than what you’re saying.
Getting back to my initial point, people are just saying, the Red Sox should pivot and sign Montgomery and/or Snell like it’s going to be a done deal. In my opinion, it looks more like the Red Sox will either overpay for them or lose them, as they have many other free agents.
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Kind of eerie to read the words from JA's linked article from when we signed Price: "The Red Sox are prohibitive favorites, at least in the eyes of the media and a few baseball executives, to land free agent David Price for two reasons: president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s relationship with the left-hander, whom he acquired and then dealt over the last two trade deadlines, and Boston’s desperate need for an ace after two consecutive last-place finishes and three in the last four years."
I think some big moves are coming. I will say that it would be interesting to see how they would spin it if they indeed decide to stay with the Bloom strategy and simply decided Bloom was not effective in selling the approach to the fans which necessitated a change (See last winter in Springfield).
The options here seem to be going back to the risky strategy of giving 30+ year old pitchers (Montgomery, Snell, Stroman) lengthy deals, or sticking with the Bloom strategy of short term drals with whomever will take one (Ryu, Manea, etc).
, which is also risky but not as potentially damaging long term.
Kind of hard to say which direction they will go in.
, which is also risky but not as potentially damaging long term.
Kind of hard to say which direction they will go in.
They could also do one of each.
Or make a trade or two.
There are plenty of options.
mlbtr:
An offer of $250MM to Yamamoto, which seems a conservative estimate of his earning power at this point given the robust interest, would require a $39.375MM posting fee. That’d put the total commitment a little north of $289MM. If a team were to offer Yamamoto $300MM, that’d come with a $46.875MM posting sum that pushes their spending to nearly $347MM.
An offer of $250MM to Yamamoto, which seems a conservative estimate of his earning power at this point given the robust interest, would require a $39.375MM posting fee. That’d put the total commitment a little north of $289MM. If a team were to offer Yamamoto $300MM, that’d come with a $46.875MM posting sum that pushes their spending to nearly $347MM.
I think you are right and they will improve the team significantly. I still think Yamamoto will sign here, but I have to admit that i feel the narrative changing and may just be in denial. I also think there is a minor chance they don't pick up a high profile pitcher and hope what they have overachieves or avoids major injuries (20% chance).
This is basically the same argument every big market team's fanbase makes when their team doesn't go bananas in an offseason. My counter is that they can pursue big free agents and strike out or they can choose not to pursue those free agents to maximize profit but it doesn't hold water to me that they would be pursuing expensive free agents while also not putting out the best possible team they can to take advantage of loyal fans. If the fans are gonna show up anyway, don't bother trying to spend $300m on a guy who might suck. The only answer here is that rebuilds are ugly and a fan can never really tell when the front office is ready to go all-in on the current roster, but it most assuredly is going to slower than fans want it to be. That said, just like Cashman puts his foot in his mouth on what kind of players he will pursue and subsequently signs/trades for upside players with a great statistic or two who often don't pan out, so may have the sox when they said "full throttle" but its truly very early in the offseason.
I think the YY pursuit has reached the "pipe dream" stage. His decision to not visit with Boston during his East coast trip to visit the Yankees and Mets and his visit with Dodgers in CA is pretty telling.
In all candor, if I was in his position, no way I would want to join the Red Sox organization given its current sorry state with no real chance to compete for championship)s_ in the near future.
He will make tons of $ wherever he signs, so why not sign with a playoff bound team with other superstars to take some of the pressure off him.
When do the Red sox ever win against the Yankees or Dodgers when competing for the same free agent- never.
They are not going to outbid Steve Cohen.
The YY pursuit was for show all along.
Best to prepare for the disappointment and prepare for targeting 2nd tier SPs and ridiculously overpaying them.
This situation will not change until Henry sells teh team.
In all candor, if I was in his position, no way I would want to join the Red Sox organization given its current sorry state with no real chance to compete for championship)s_ in the near future.
He will make tons of $ wherever he signs, so why not sign with a playoff bound team with other superstars to take some of the pressure off him.
When do the Red sox ever win against the Yankees or Dodgers when competing for the same free agent- never.
They are not going to outbid Steve Cohen.
The YY pursuit was for show all along.
Best to prepare for the disappointment and prepare for targeting 2nd tier SPs and ridiculously overpaying them.
This situation will not change until Henry sells teh team.
Or maybe Yoshida complained to Yamamoto about that annoying Fenway family that refused to give back his home run ball and we've been cursed from the start.
YY is most likely to take the most money offered to him. If that is from the Red Sox, he will likely sign with the Red Sox. If that is from the Yankees or Dodgers or Mets, he will likely sign with one of them. If the offers are very similar, he’ll go to the team/city he wants to play for most, and that is unlikely to be the Red Sox.
Otherwise, he is going to whomever offers the most money, just like most other free agents in the history of free agency. Is it really controversial to acknowledge the Red Sox will have to outbid/overpay to get him? We have known this from moment one. Whether he comes to visit Fenway or not, if the Sox offer him 10 and $400m, he will likely be signing with the Red Sox. If the Sox don’t blow other offers out of the water by $50-100M, that doesn’t mean they “didn’t try” or it was “all for show”, it just means they didn’t think it was prudent to do that.
Otherwise, he is going to whomever offers the most money, just like most other free agents in the history of free agency. Is it really controversial to acknowledge the Red Sox will have to outbid/overpay to get him? We have known this from moment one. Whether he comes to visit Fenway or not, if the Sox offer him 10 and $400m, he will likely be signing with the Red Sox. If the Sox don’t blow other offers out of the water by $50-100M, that doesn’t mean they “didn’t try” or it was “all for show”, it just means they didn’t think it was prudent to do that.
10 years 400 million - opt out after year 3 so if he regrets not signing with NY or LA, he can join them at the still ripe age of 28. Or if he wants one more massive crack at free agency he can have that.
Who is beating that offer - both in money and opt out ability?
Who is beating that offer - both in money and opt out ability?
What is a reasonable length for a rebuild for an organization that has - in recent history -- usually been in the top 5 in player salary (so able to augment a new crop of prospects with a FA signing or two without blowing up a rebuilt farm)? If the Sox basically stand pat from here, can we agree they are likely to finish last in the AL East again next year? So that brings the rebuild to 2025 at minimum. If the rebuild began in 2020 - is 6 years long enough? Or should it take 7 or 8? What are some good comps of team's who smartly rebuilt and how long did it take them? Not trying to be provocative, just trying to figure out how often a big market team takes 6+ years to rebuild. After how many years might we all start to agree: this is now taking too long and points to poor performance in the organization?
I do agree with some posts above that Bloom was doing a soft rebuild - and his half measures every deadline were indicative; but that hedge maybe only ensured mediocrity. I'd rather fully crater for 2-3 years and be back, then be kinda fair for 6+ years.
View: https://youtu.be/GuKetbzZXsU?si=nP6KFW2FvkAe_a2N
Every single person should watch that and understand that we are still dealing with a projection here. He’s going to be a good major league pitcher, but there’s a real chance he’s more of a top 35ish guy vs top 5. Do you want to commit 300 million to a top 35 pitcher?
I’d rather than Montgomery plus Stroman at this point.
Every single person should watch that and understand that we are still dealing with a projection here. He’s going to be a good major league pitcher, but there’s a real chance he’s more of a top 35ish guy vs top 5. Do you want to commit 300 million to a top 35 pitcher?
I’d rather than Montgomery plus Stroman at this point.
Even with Yamamoto, the Red Sox aren’t likely serious WS contenders next season or maybe even 2025. Why would they offer a contract with an opt out after year three or four?
I watched this video last month when it was first posted and I'm just wondering why it should be taken as the actual, objective reality on Yamamoto when it's on the low end of expectations for him. Of course there are caveats here over his ability to translate to the majors, if he had that kind of success at the MLB level at age 25 the bidding would start at 500 million, not 300. 300 is already baking the uncertainty in.
I agree. Once Yamamoto is done, these guys' asking prices will soar because teams who missed out on Yamamoto will still need starting pitching. So we're looking at the Sox needing to pay huge, huge dollars for either of these guys. And if NYY gets Yamamoto, say, the Mets and Dodgers still have tons of money to burn and we're right back in this same place, just with a different player in the discussion, asking all the same questions of why would they want to play in Boston.
We’ll see. The market for non-Yamamoto starters has been pretty normal so far. And all those teams knew the math of having only one Yamamoto with many suitors. I don’t think we see Marcus Stroman on a three week, cross country interview tour.
I’m not saying it’s the reality. It is however, an educated opinion with interesting metrics to back it up.
The point isn’t that this guy is 100% right. The point is we are dealing with a projection with no major league background.
Garret Cole was 28 coming off a 7+ WAR season with other best in class level seasons under his belt when he signed for 9 years +324
This isn’t that and it’s become clear people think it is that plus he’s younger.
Have they ever? How many times in their history have they successfully been the highest bidder for a top-of-the-market free agent? And how often have they gotten that guy by outbidding other teams just as hell-bent on getting the same guy? IIRC, they outbid the Cardinals for David Price. They outbid the Angels for Carl Crawford. They outbid Cleveland for Manny. Meanwhile, have they ever gone head to head with a true deep-pocket, big market club like the Yankees (let alone multiple such clubs at the same time) and gotten their guy?
I guess it's easy to say John Henry is a billionaire and he should spend whatever it takes, and ignore the possible risks and penalties, to get their guy(s). But the fact is that the other teams are also owned by disgustingly rich (richer in some cases) people/corporations who can also spend whatever it takes and ignore the possible risks and penalties to get their guy too. They can make their best effort, and have it be beyond anything they've ever offered anyone before, and still be out-bid or otherwise miss out on the player. That's how it works. Sometimes you don't get what you want despite doing everything in your power to make it happen.
Again, if in 2023 people thought Yamamoto at 25 was as much of a sure thing as they thought Gerrit Cole was at 28 (in 2020), bidding would start at close to 500. The mere fact that 300 is the speculated number already tells you there's uncertainty involved.
Of course, there's a chance some team blows everyone out of the water and offers him a crazy deal far exceeding that number, in which case I would agree with you that the risk assessment on Yamamoto would be out of whack. But if we're taking 300 (or close to it) as what it would take, then to me that's a fair representation of his potential value with the downside baked in.
We need something to entice other free agents to build up the talent base. Even if he is not here in the potential WS candidate years he helps build the profile in the short term for others to join the project. Things can change quicly in MLB one off season and a bit of luck and we can compete as we saw in 18
I love that the start of the contention window has now been pushed to at least 2025 and maybe 2026.
Edit: 125+ so far!
Over how many years would Gerrit Cole be making $500 million? Shohei got an accounting tricks contract that really wasn't much more than Max Scherzer in AAV and not really close to $500 million in total.
How was Shohei's deal not close to 500 million in total? Gerrit Cole accrued 20 WAR between his 25th birthday and the day he signed his deal with the Yankees, those are absolute prime years for pitchers that a team would need to buy at a premium.
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