Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years

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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I’m probably looking at this overly simplistically, but my assumption was that when the Dodgers and Ohtani did the AAV deferral trick, it was for a specific reason not just “hey, I can save you some CBT space.” It really hasn’t been the Red Sox style to come in with a big number at the end to close the deal. Dodgers seem like leaders to me, and if someone is going to knock them off the pedestal it will take something major. Just not our style.
 

jon abbey

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I’m probably looking at this overly simplistically, but my assumption was that when the Dodgers and Ohtani did the AAV deferral trick, it was for a specific reason not just “hey, I can save you some CBT space.”
I mean, Ohtani is still at a $46M AAV, and they just added $36M more for 2024 in Glasnow/Margot.
 

snowmanny

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I’m probably looking at this overly simplistically, but my assumption was that when the Dodgers and Ohtani did the AAV deferral trick, it was for a specific reason not just “hey, I can save you some CBT space.” It really hasn’t been the Red Sox style to come in with a big number at the end to close the deal. Dodgers seem like leaders to me, and if someone is going to knock them off the pedestal it will take something major. Just not our style.
I think it’s hard to know what John Henry’s “style” is when the team is facing the prospect of a third straight last place finish.
I always assumed they’d be super aggressive this off-season but who knows?
 

BringBackMo

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I think they’re trying but realize they’re probably going to get outbid because they won’t be comfortable going as high as the final numbers will be.

My own personal opinion, presumably not also shared by the team if the reports are accurate, is that the bidding is already into the uncomfortably high range.

More concretely, 10 years/$300m makes me uncomfortable. If my read is right, 10 years/$350 is probably where the Sox FO taps out. Apologies if I didn’t communicate that properly.
What could you possibly be basing this on? What indication does any of us have of where the Sox tap out? I don’t understand this thinking at all.

The Sox may not get him! Every team except for one will not get him. But they have announced they are going for it. They WANT to spend money on him. What makes you think their intentions here are not genuine? They look worse for saying they’re going all in on competing and then coming away without a couple of good starters than they do if they just say they’re going to continue with the rebuild.

What possible motivation do they have to put in bids that thread the needle of appearing to be competitive while actually having no chance of being accepted? That makes them look worse not better. And they know that.
 

moondog80

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The “opt out that a team can cancel by exercising a one year extension” is a nice model that protects both parties.
 

chawson

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Maybe he wants to be THE stud on a team. He can do that with a lot of teams but not one with Ohtani.
Right, I’d kinda expect he would, but within that particular rivalry he’d always play second fiddle.

It’s partly wishcasting but Boston (and maybe the Cubs) may be the only team among the ones in where he’d be “the guy.”
 

simplicio

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Clearly they are blowing way past 2024, but they are still in relatively decent shape for 2025 right?
Everybody's in decent shape for 2025 right now. But spotrac estimates have them as the 2nd highest payroll team for the year by current commitments.
 

RedOctober3829

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Is he a big ego guy or just a competitor? I haven’t heard anything about the former.
It’s widely known he loves the spotlight. So does he want to be the #2 guy in LA or NYY or be the man in Boston or SF or in Queens? Hopefully Pedro was brought on to help him sell how electric the nights were in Fenway when he pitched and how a whole country’s support was prevalent in Fenway.
 

GPO Man

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It’s widely known he loves the spotlight. So does he want to be the #2 guy in LA or NYY or be the man in Boston or SF or in Queens? Hopefully Pedro was brought on to help him sell how electric the nights were in Fenway when he pitched and how a whole country’s support was prevalent in Fenway.
He would certainly be in the spotlight in Boston. Hopefully, it would be a good spotlight based on dominant pitching.
 

chawson

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It’s widely known he loves the spotlight. So does he want to be the #2 guy in LA or NYY or be the man in Boston or SF or in Queens? Hopefully Pedro was brought on to help him sell how electric the nights were in Fenway when he pitched and how a whole country’s support was prevalent in Fenway.
There’s a line of thinking that he’d have to share the spotlight a good amount for the Mets too, with an excellent and established Japanese starter already on the staff and with Lindor, who is a much splashier personality than Devers. For the Yankees, he’d be arguably the 4th biggest star.

Of course, those guys all make their teams better too, and no doubt joining a competitive team is important to him.
 

jon abbey

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There’s a line of thinking that he’d have to share the spotlight a good amount for the Mets too, with an excellent and established Japanese starter already on the staff and with Lindor, who is a much splashier personality than Devers. For the Yankees, he’d be arguably the 4th biggest star.
And pretty quickly it becomes about performance, if he has a 1.27 ERA in June, he's going to be the focus wherever he is. Same if he has a 5.27 ERA, and in that case, he might be happy to have other superstars around to shield some of the criticism.
 

GPO Man

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And pretty quickly it becomes about performance, if he has a 1.27 ERA in June, he's going to be the focus wherever he is. Same if he has a 5.27 ERA, and in that case, he might be happy to have other superstars around to shield some of the criticism.
That was my point as well. If he didn’t pitch well in
Boston for whatever reason, he’s going to hear it with the amount of money he would be making. However, if he helps catapult the Sox into the playoffs and is dominant, he will be regarded as a hero. Fenway will be on their feet. So if he wants to be the guy, he’ll be the guy, either way.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I still think he winds up in Boston now that the Dodgers traded/signed Glasnow. I think that’s been their main offseason target all along, and I’ll assume they are prepared to pay big money.
 

macal

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He has to make a decision soon. I’ve got my Tiger Woods fist pump ready to go and I’m not sure how long I can keep this pose.
 

YTF

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It’s widely known he loves the spotlight. So does he want to be the #2 guy in LA or NYY or be the man in Boston or SF or in Queens? Hopefully Pedro was brought on to help him sell how electric the nights were in Fenway when he pitched and how a whole country’s support was prevalent in Fenway.
He would likely be the #1 guy in LA this season and there is no guarantee that Ohtani comes back as the top pitcher. Now Ohtani might overshadow him just as a member of the team, but so might Betts and even possibly Freeman. Is his ego that big or fragile that he can't handle being part of a super team that where on any given day someone else may get top billing?
 

Gash Prex

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I’m surprised how excited people are for the Red Sox offering over 300 million to Yamamoto.

Feels like any sense of rationality have left the building because they want the Sox to “do something big” and are “tired of losing out” - sort of like the crazed real estate market last year.
 

BaseballJones

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I’m surprised how excited people are for the Red Sox offering over 300 million to Yamamoto.

Feels like any sense of rationality have left the building because they want the Sox to “do something big” and are “tired of losing out” - sort of like the crazed real estate market last year.
It's because they desperately need starting pitching, and he's ace caliber, and he's just 25 years old.
 

GPO Man

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I’m surprised how excited people are for the Red Sox offering over 300 million to Yamamoto.

Feels like any sense of rationality have left the building because they want the Sox to “do something big” and are “tired of losing out” - sort of like the crazed real estate market last year.
I just want good players on the team.
 

snowmanny

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I don’t understand why the Red Sox would be such a tough sell. Sure, the last couple years have been tough, but they are a big spending team, they’re generally a very good team, they have the third most titles overall and the most over the last 20 years, and when the team is good lots of players seem to love playing here.

If you’re worried about the weather play in Miami.
 

Beomoose

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I’m surprised how excited people are for the Red Sox offering over 300 million to Yamamoto.

Feels like any sense of rationality have left the building because they want the Sox to “do something big” and are “tired of losing out” - sort of like the crazed real estate market last year.
He looks like The Real Thing and all he costs is money. Is this a baseball team that's on the field to compete or is it not?
 

cantor44

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I don’t understand why the Red Sox would be such a tough sell. Sure, the last couple years have been tough, but they are a big spending team, they’re generally a very good team, they have the third most titles overall and the most over the last 20 years, and when the team is good lots of players seem to love playing here.

If you’re worried about the weather play in Miami.
Well. They stopped spending as much. They've been pretty bad for a while. They have maybe one sure all-star caliber player on the roster (maybe Casas becomes the second).

But - maybe just maybe Breslow/Bailey engaged with YY about pitching in a way that particularly impressed him, or that set them apart.

I DO think not wanting to be Robin to Ohtani's Batman could be a legit issue. Though if he just wants the greatest chance to win, he should go to the Dodgers. If he wants to win and not play in the orbit of the GOAT (or at least this generation's GOAT), then it seems to me he goes to the Yankees. That's what I suspect will happen - he goes to the Yankees.

Maybe the Red Sox offer the most money, and he comes. And I'd be fine with that. I actually don't think it's irrational at all. They have a dire dire need for starting pitching, and need star power. Corey Seager surprisingly signed with Texas, and suddenly the team became a legit destination and they built a winner. The Sox DO need this kind of move and it could lead to subsequent moves, attract subsequent players. The money will work out in the end - there are always creative ways out.
 
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Gash Prex

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He looks like The Real Thing and all he costs is money. Is this a baseball team that's on the field to compete or is it not?
There is a vast difference between “spend lots of money on premium players” and “offer whatever it takes, I don’t care how much” - and it appears that’s where the majority of this board is headed. The contract will most likely eclipse the highest FA pitcher contract ever - for someone that has never pitched in MLB.
 

Mike473

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I’m surprised how excited people are for the Red Sox offering over 300 million to Yamamoto.

Feels like any sense of rationality have left the building because they want the Sox to “do something big” and are “tired of losing out” - sort of like the crazed real estate market last year.
I get what you are saying, but I think the comparison is kind of apples to oranges. While real estate is cyclical, and does have corrections, the market for elite athletes never seems to go down.

Perception is reality as they say, and the perception right now is that Henry is cheap and disinterested. I don't think he is either of those things and will make a move soon. If we move into 2024 with more or less the team we had last year, I would start to question it myself. But, we are not there yet. I think Yamamoto is coming to Boston because the Red Sox are the most desperate and he fills their #1 need. Also, as far as making a big risky move, the kid is a 25 year old phenom. This is about as good as it gets when it comes to these kinds of moves. Finally, I think on a psychological level, a move like this is needed to finally move on from the Mookie Betts disaster and officially turn the page to a new chapter. Yamamoto would instantly get the fan base looking forward and create some good will as ownership continues the rebuild over the next couple seasons.
 

Harry Hooper

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The contract will most likely eclipse the highest FA pitcher contract ever - for someone that has never pitched in MLB.
Maybe, but eclipsing the highest FA pitcher contract ever is essentially a product of it being the newest contract and of free agent pitchers being typically several years older.
 

E5 Yaz

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Maybe, but that's essentially a product of it being 2023 and of free agent pitchers being typically several years older.
Plus, Yamamoto has been talked about for more than a year. This feels less like a free agent chase and more like a game where fans hope their teams win
 

BringBackMo

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A reminder that the Boston Red Sox are only just now emerging from a multi-year rebuild, a process that has seen them improve their farm system while strategically scaling back spending and competitiveness. This was an organizational decision. Pointing out that the Sox spent less during the rebuild, paused signing all-star caliber free agents, and missed the playoffs for two seasons in a row is simply another way of pointing out that the Sox were rebuilding.

The team had the 13th highest payroll in baseball last year and the sixth highest the year before that. As posted earlier today, the Red Sox have been one of the top three spending teams in baseball during the vast majority of the years under Henry’s ownership. The team has also won four championships during that span, the most in baseball. The Sox have also publicly announced that they are done rebuilding and are now going for it. Any player or agent with even a passing familiarity of the last two decades of baseball will recognize that Boston is a place to sign if you want to win.
 

PedroisGod

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I’m surprised how excited people are for the Red Sox offering over 300 million to Yamamoto.

Feels like any sense of rationality have left the building because they want the Sox to “do something big” and are “tired of losing out” - sort of like the crazed real estate market last year.
It's not my money and I like watching good players.
 

Beomoose

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There is a vast difference between “spend lots of money on premium players” and “offer whatever it takes, I don’t care how much” - and it appears that’s where the majority of this board is headed. The contract will most likely eclipse the highest FA pitcher contract ever - for someone that has never pitched in MLB.
I just don't get where your ire is going. If they land him at $300m, are you intending to be pissed at SoSH members for being happy about? If he goes to LA or NYC we should be thrilled?
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I don’t understand why the Red Sox would be such a tough sell. Sure, the last couple years have been tough, but they are a big spending team, they’re generally a very good team, they have the third most titles overall and the most over the last 20 years, and when the team is good lots of players seem to love playing here.

If you’re worried about the weather play in Miami.
I'm firmly in this camp as well. I think people greatly overstate what a tough sell the Red Sox are.
This isn't even like the NBA where the season is during the Winter. Spring/Summer/early fall in Boston isn't even a weather problem.
 

chawson

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Seriously? Players are now going to steer clear of Boston because it rains too much. Okay.
Everyone’s preferences differ on this topic, of course. I grew up in New England, lived in other cities and moved back, and I personally can’t stand how dismal the weather here is. When it rains as much during the summer as it did last year, I feel like I’m losing my mind.
 
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