Nick Pivetta - Bad, Average, or Pretty, Pretty, Pretty Good?

[LoLsapien]

I was maybe being a bit over the top and not mentioning that those stats include reliever innings. But still. Those second half numbers were really really good! I also liked that he didn't throw a hissy fit being "demoted" and instead took the opportunity to retool his approach and make some changes. Changes which may have created an actual good pitcher.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Oh there was definitely a lot of Pivetta hate this time a year ago. It wasn’t totally deserved but it wasn’t unreasonable either. I just think the perspective of what a valuable MLB starting pitcher is. So many can’t throw more than 120 innings and ones that can aren’t very good and Pivetta was standing right on that fulcrum point.
I always liked him and defended him but with a clear understanding that he was at best a “league average starter” but a potential horse. What’s better….. having Chris Sale for 80 innings and Kyle Barraclough for 80 or a Nick Pivetta for 160?

What I meant was that I don’t remember a lot of people saying he was well below average. We always get down on guys that don’t perform very well, but I thought the consensus was that he was a middling starter and not a bottom of the barrel guy.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

There was a lot of talk this time last year about how Pivetta was among the worst qualified starters in the league based on a variety of metrics, IIRC.

 

[simplicio]

What I meant was that I don’t remember a lot of people saying he was well below average. We always get down on guys that don’t perform very well, but I thought the consensus was that he was a middling starter and not a bottom of the barrel guy.

Just start from the top of this thread, there's plenty of it from last winter.

I stand by my assessments from then. Gaining a new effective pitch last year was a positive development, and he improved his overall statcast metrics significantly over 2022. I'm still not sure I entirely trust his last two months of the season to be the new Pivetta going forward (he's had dominant 2 month stretches before). But simply going out there and making 30+ starts as a baseline is really valuable, especially given the current uncertainty of 2/5 of the rotation.

 

[zenax]

Pivetta career
152 GS: 44-54 WL, 4.93 ERA
44 GR: 6-5-3 WLS,4.19 ERA

Run Support GS
0-2 RS: 3-33 WL
3-5 RS: 14-19 WL
6+ RS: 27-2 WL

Pivetta began his 4th season with the Phillies and had an 0-0-0 record with a 15.88 ERA in 3 games out of the pen (5.2 IP) before being traded to the Sox (2-0 in 2 GS, 1.80 ERA). Since then, his record has been .500

The Sox gave up Heath Hembree (15-5-2, 3.70 out of the pen in 7 seasons with them) and Brandom Workman (10-1-16, 1.88 out of the pen in the season before the trade was made. The Phillies granted Hembree and Workman free agancy after the season the trades were made ended. Connor Seabold was 0-4 in 6 GS for the Sox, who traded hime to Colorado in Jan 2023 for a minor league player to be named); COL releeased hime in Dec 2023.
(source: bb-ref)

I'm rather skeptical that 31-year-old Pivetta will turn his career around, especially if the Sox don't put a good club surrounding him. Also, everything surrounding what was given and received in the trade for Pivetta seems like an effort to avoid 30+ year-old-pitchers and boils down to who they get from Colorado (and what would that team give up for a pitcher they released after 87.1 IP?).

 

[chawson]

There was a lot of talk this time last year about how Pivetta was among the worst qualified starters in the league based on a variety of metrics, IIRC.

And rightfully so! From Opening Day 2022 through his demotion on May 16th, 2023 — nine months ago — here’s how Pivetta ranked among all 99 starters who threw a minimum of 150 IP in that stretch.

ERA - 88th of 99
FIP - 83rd
xFIP - 77th
BB% - 92nd
HR/9 - 84th
Barrel% - 95th

The guy he was after he made changes is a lot different, and pretty great. It seems to be working, and I hope it sticks — though it’s probably the case too that the league has had time to catch up with the changes he made.

 

[The_Dali]

I like Pivetta, warts and all, just found it interesting that given the current pitching climate there are now calls for an extension.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I like Pivetta, warts and all, just found it interesting that given the current pitching climate there are now calls for an extension.

I just think the league is valuing guys that can - bank on- 160+ innings at at least league average production. They’re becoming a rare breed. Pivetta right now could probably get 3/$45 minimum. A year ago, someone saying that would have been laughed at

 

[chrisfont9]

I just think the league is valuing guys that can - bank on- 160+ innings at at least league average production. They’re becoming a rare breed. Pivetta right now could probably get 3/$45 minimum. A year ago, someone saying that would have been laughed at

And that would be a very tradeable contract too, barring a collapse.

 

[Apisith]

But what's the point in giving him an extension? If he has a good year we would give him the QO which he would almost certainly take, he doesn't have the type of track record that would merit a 3 or 4 year deal, especially with the QO attached.

 

[Carroll Hardy]

Pivetta is the return of The Napkin….

 

[OCD SS]

But what's the point in giving him an extension? If he has a good year we would give him the QO which he would almost certainly take, he doesn't have the type of track record that would merit a 3 or 4 year deal, especially with the QO attached.

The short answer is cost certainty, plus the possibility of locking him up for multiple years at below $20M a year without having to bid against the rest of the league, where the winning bid might add on an extra year.

With so much of the league looking for pitching and the Sox pipeline thin for the next few years, it makes sense to get as much of the 2025 rotation set ahead of time as you can, and then add or subtract from surplus rather than scramble to fill a deficit.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

But what's the point in giving him an extension? If he has a good year we would give him the QO which he would almost certainly take, he doesn't have the type of track record that would merit a 3 or 4 year deal, especially with the QO attached.

This makes sense but what would a QO be after this season? Can Breslow say “hey we’re going to offer you a QO if you don’t sign say a 3/45” and make it clear that he’s unlikely to get more than 45m over that time if he doesn’t take it?*
* which may not be true but it would appear that way.
if they add JM, with Bello, him and Crawford apparently locked in would that hurt offering Bello a long term contract and it only opens up one starting spot for the future…. Maybe the QO is the best path forward?

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'd have no problem with locking up Pivetta at 3/yr 45m. That is the going rate for a league average pitcher who also eats innings and has little injury history to boot. In addition, I could see him having the makeup and the stuff to be a good closer if it ever came to that.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Great outing from Pivetta last night. 84 pitches and one earned run on the homer to Crawford. Adding the "sweeper" to the mix last season looks like it will continue to pay dividends, based on last night. Here's the information from Baseball Savant on the game. Let's hope this is the new Pivetta going forward. He had to throw more pitches because of the smaller plate that Rackley was calling. Especially at the bottom of the zone.
Three hits and ten Ks.

 

[simplicio]

Sloppy defense and a little less efficiency yesterday (with fewer strikeouts than you'd like against that Oakland team) cut his outing shorter than I'd hoped, but Pitching+ thinks he still looks pretty good:

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

His problem has always been consistency over the course of a season. Let's hope he's figured that out.

It would be a good time for him to have a career season, money-wise.

 

[Max Power]

His problem has always been consistency over the course of a season. Let's hope he's figured that out.

And the long ball. His best season in his career is 1.3 HR/9 with a career mark of 1.5. League average is usually 1.1-1.2.