With Dalton possibly done for the season, that changes the AFC outlook. Denver really has a good shot at the #1 seed now, because that game against Cincy has a very high win probability for Denver. Denver isn't losing today. That'll put them at 11-2. Let's say NE wins tonight (I mean, this conversation is a moot point if they keep losing).
Standings projection after tonight:
1. Den 11-2
2. NE 11-2
3. Cin 10-3
4. Ind 6-7
5. KC 8-5
6. NYJ 8-5
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7. Pit 8-5
Den: at Pit, vs Cin, vs SD (projected 2-1, 13-3 final record)
NE: vs Ten, at NYJ, at Mia (projected 3-0, 14-2 final record)
Cin: at SF, at Den, vs Bal (projected 1-2, 11-5 final record)
Ind: vs Hou, at Mia, vs Ten (projected 1-2, 7-9 final record)
Hou: at Ind, at Ten, vs Jax (projected 3-0, 9-7 final record)
KC: at Bal, vs Cle, vs Oak (projected 3-0, 11-5 final record)
NYJ: at Dal, vs NE, at Buf (projected 2-1), 10-6 final record)
Pit: vs Den, at Bal, at Cle (projected 3-0, 11-5 final record)
So I think Houston likely ends up winning the South. I think KC gets one wild card. That leaves the second wild card and the AFC North up for grabs. Dalton being out could really change things for Cincy, obviously. Cincy could finish 11-5, winning just one of their last three games. Can Pittsburgh catch them? They'd have to go 3-0, but two of them should be easy wins (at Bal, at Cle). That leaves the Steeler-Denver tilt next week as a HUGE matchup.
Denver should win at home against Dalton-less Cincy, and they'll pound San Diego at home. That leaves the game at Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers, the way they're playing, will take that.
So if my projections are right (and, uh, don't bet on that), the final standings would be:
1. NE 14-2
2. Den 13-3
3. Pit 11-5
4. Hou 9-7
5. Cin 11-5 (beat KC H2H)
6. KC 11-5
The Wild Card round matchups would then be: KC at Pit, and Cin at Hou. The KC/Pit game would be awesome. The Cin/Hou game would be dullsville.
I'd actually want Pit to beat KC in that matchup, because then NE would get the Hou/Cin winner in Foxboro, which probably represents (with Dalton out) the easiest path for the Patriots to the AFCCG. And it means Pit and Den have to slug it out again in Denver. If KC were to beat Pit, then it means the dangerous Chiefs would come to Foxboro, and Denver gets the easier Hou/Cin winner.
So the big games remaining are: obviously every one of the four Pats' games left, Pit-Den, Hou-Ind, Den-Cin (but I give Cincy very little chance without Dalton).