Vikings now have 23 and 11. Wonder if they'll make a move for a QB.
View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1768634566464397692
View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1768634566464397692
NFL Draft - General Notes and Buildup
- Thread starter tims4wins
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On Houston's part? Yeah I agree. I'd have asked for more. If 23 for a pair of mid-2nd rounders worth it? By the value chart it does seem like Houston got excellent value. 23 is worth 760, 232 is worth 1, for 761. 42 is worth 480, 188 is worth 16, for 496, and then they'll get another 400+ for next year's pick.
Going further down the rabbit hole, it makes me wonder if the Pats would consider trading with Minnesota. 3 for 11, 23, and perhaps a 2025 2nd or 3rd rounder would be pretty even on the value chart.
That is an oddly timed one. Maybe Caserio is doing us a solid (or not) to facilitate 11, 23 and Jefferson for #3 
Interesting move because that pick in 2025 could be top 40 (or higher) and quite valuable. Good paper value for Houston but agree that it’s weird to do this before draft day.
I think it’s gotta be 11, 23 and 2025 first. I’m not doing it for mid 2nd round next year (assuming Minn gets competent QB play that offense is potent).
I think that is an overpay, at least based on the value chart. Perhaps a middle ground would be 11, 23, and a 2025 1st, with the Pats giving back their 2025 2nd?
I hold firm on the overpay price. You want #3? Make it worth our while. Otherwise, we just sit tight and take the potential franchise QB.
Agreed. You've got to get at least a future first out of that deal. Moving into the top 3 requires a premium above the standard "pick chart" formula.
Would you do it for the three R1s (11, 23 and R1 2025)? I'd think about it, but in this draft, with these QBs and those available next year and our glaring need, probably pass. It would be a good trade for the LAC to make. That would all but guarantee JJ for Min at #5 and allow LAC to fill some holes.
Worth noting, I think even the people who make the charts generally say that you should expect a fairly decent overpay for QB picks. I'd use the MIA/SF deal as a reference. That was 12, two future 1sts and a next year 3rd. I think you could argue that 23 is more valuable than a future 1st and scrap the 3rd.
It would make me think but I’d probably pass because I don’t love next year’s QB class and if you give Minny a good QB, that may be a mid first next year.
Thinking now and if they can't get top 3, they'd almost have to trade with Arizona instead of the LAC. Otherwise they might get swooped by another team.
This would fit in perfectly with how the Chargers have been conducting their off-season. Load up on cheap offensive talent through the draft and hope like hell that a couple of them click with Herbert.
It would take a higher premium, I think to get Arizona to give up on taking MHJ
Minnesota isn't going to trade a king's ransom for a cost controlled elite QB prospect and then give away Jefferson at the same time.
Yeah, whole point would be to find a potentially elite QB without sacrificing Jefferson and then trying to cobble together a team around those two without some high picks for a couple years.
I don't see Washington moving off the #2 pick and missing out on the Top 3. If they do, it would be good for The Pats as they will know who the top 2 picks are.
If a team that isn't a run like a circus needs a QB and approaches you about your draft pick, which would enable them to get a potential franchise QB when you also need a QB, and you make that trade---YOU BETTER BE RIGHT.
I'm sure they don't want to, but to force their way into the top 2 or 3 of this draft, they may not have a choice.
Yup. The only thing worse than busting on a top 3 QB pick is trading a top 3 pick for a collection of guys that later don’t make a huge impact while the guy you traded becomes the QB that you needed.
It’s why I think when push comes to shove, they’ll just take whoever is left between Maye/Daniels and call it a day.
Fun idea, but no way.
If they want Maye, they can't trade with the Pats because he may get drafted at 2. That means trading with the Commanders, who just traded their 23 year old QB and replaced him with backup-in-waiting Marcus Mariota.
After doing that, they're going to trade a shot at a franchise QB for the rights to draft the 4th best tackle and 3rd best WR in the draft? Please.
If they want Maye, they can't trade with the Pats because he may get drafted at 2. That means trading with the Commanders, who just traded their 23 year old QB and replaced him with backup-in-waiting Marcus Mariota.
After doing that, they're going to trade a shot at a franchise QB for the rights to draft the 4th best tackle and 3rd best WR in the draft? Please.
I guess they could be confident that WAS wants Daniels as has been speculated. If you're confident enough you know what WAS is doing at 2, you can move to 3. Of course they also can just wait until the pick is on the clock to make an actual deal.
But Maye seems a better pick for the AVP offense, so, the upshot is, the Vikings are screwed. The top 3 teams all need QBs.
I think the Vikings being after JJ makes a lot more sense than the Maye rumors, which seem like people putting 2+2 together and getting 5 based on very little.
There's always this assumption that when a coach has worked with a QB in a past life he must want him again when in reality the coach's thought process could just as easily be along the lines of "Drake was a great QB...at the high school level. Dumb as a box of rocks even then."
There's always this assumption that when a coach has worked with a QB in a past life he must want him again when in reality the coach's thought process could just as easily be along the lines of "Drake was a great QB...at the high school level. Dumb as a box of rocks even then."
hey, if you want to guarantee yourself one of your top 2 non-QBs, no better way than sending signals that anyone who wants McCarthy has to trade ahead of you. Giants are in a nice spot if they don't want a QB with talk of 4 QBs in the 5 picks before them.
The Chargers are in a great spot if they're interested in trading down for a haul. They've got the Giants and Vikings angling for QBs, plus perhaps Denver, and with the top-4 picks likely the three QBs and MHJ, suddenly pick-5 looks pretty valuable.
As an aside, I can see the Pats being in a similar position as the Chargers next year. High draft pick, QB desperate teams chasing whichever QBs have the most helium and looking to move up to snag them. That's when they can trade back for bundle and speed up the rebuild.
As an aside, I can see the Pats being in a similar position as the Chargers next year. High draft pick, QB desperate teams chasing whichever QBs have the most helium and looking to move up to snag them. That's when they can trade back for bundle and speed up the rebuild.
I think it was someone at the Athletic’s recent draft that had the Vikings moving up to 5 to draft McCarthy. Interesting to see the correlation in rumors between the Giants allegedly looking at him at 6, combined with the recent Vikings trade to have two firsts.
I wonder if at any point Poles considers sticking with Fields and trading back more than once for a kings ransom.
CHI could conceivably trade back to 2 with WAS who covets Williams and get either an additional 1st or high 2nd +, trade back to 6 and get NYG 1st next year and 2nd this year and not out of the question they could then trade out of 6 with MN for 11/23+
It would obviously be a huge gamble but if they decided Fields is fixable and just needed better talent they could set themselves up to dominate this and the next draft.
Something like #1 for 11/23/36/47 and NYG 25 1st could be possible. They already own the 9th pick as well. 5 top 50 picks would go a long way towards roster building. Really comes down to how certain they are Williams is a franchise QB. As it stands CHI doesn't pick until 75 after 9 as they don't have a 2nd.
CHI could conceivably trade back to 2 with WAS who covets Williams and get either an additional 1st or high 2nd +, trade back to 6 and get NYG 1st next year and 2nd this year and not out of the question they could then trade out of 6 with MN for 11/23+
It would obviously be a huge gamble but if they decided Fields is fixable and just needed better talent they could set themselves up to dominate this and the next draft.
Something like #1 for 11/23/36/47 and NYG 25 1st could be possible. They already own the 9th pick as well. 5 top 50 picks would go a long way towards roster building. Really comes down to how certain they are Williams is a franchise QB. As it stands CHI doesn't pick until 75 after 9 as they don't have a 2nd.
Tough call, but I'd probably prefer 6 & 47. Reports are the draft is around 15 deep with first round talent, and if true, I think 6 & 47 has the potential to return more talent.
Assuming four QBs go in the first five picks, at six I'm guaranteed the second best receiver or the best OT. At 11, who knows? The top three receivers, the two best OTs, and the top-four QBs are gone. I'm guessing the talent difference between 6 & 11 is greater than the talent difference between 23 & 47. Fun to think about and discuss, anyway.
I don't think they'd ever do this. Fields is pretty baked by now heading into his fourth year and he's just not a good enough passer or decision maker. His upside shrinks more and more as time goes on, and there's not much left to dream on at this point. He can run and throw it deep but beyond that...
Plus, Proles wants to keep his job, and he buys himself a few more years with a rookie QB.
True I thought his stats had improved a bit this past season but he really just ran a bit less and threw a bit more but the underlying stats were still rough. Funny I forgot CHI had to trade up significantly to draft Fields back in 21. Talk about a trade with no winners. I'm not sure this is a cautionary tale beyond the draft is hard regardless of where you are drafting.
April 29, 2021: Traded by Giants as 2021 1st round pick (11th overall) to Bears for 2021 1st round pick (20th overall, Kadarius Toney), 2021 5th round pick (164th overall subsequently traded , Jamar Johnson), 2022 1st round pick (7th overall, Evan Neal) and 2022 4th round pick (112th overall, Daniel Bellinger)
Gotta love the G men. A year ago they signed Danny Dimes to a four year, $160 million contract. Less than six games later, at least for him, they're looking at getting his replacement. Meanwhile they have holes all over the place to fill. They'll have two quarterbacks but nobody to catch the balls that they throw and nobody to protect them.
I can' see it, I think Poles has the same view of Fields as the rest of the league (Danny Dimes light) and anything else is trade posturing. That team is clearly being built with a passing QB in mind.
Two cardinal sins for them:
1. If you decline a QB's 5th year option move on immediately.
2. Never get fooled by a fluky playoff appearance by a bad team.
I mean, the only way it "works" is if it's draft night and Drake Maye is on the board at #3 and the Pats absolutely hate him and JJ McCarthy. Not only that, they prefer 11 & 23 & whatever else they could get over drafting what looks like the best WR prospect to come out of college in a while in Marvin Harrison Jr. Not only that, no team picking between say 4-9 makes a comparable offer that allows the Pats to stay in the elite WR/OT group that includes Odunze/Nabers/Alt/Fashanu and maybe McCarthy.
You'd be telling me the Pats hate the top 4 QB's? Okay. Now they're going to pass on the franchise WR? Um..Okayyy. And now we're going to very likely pass on the other 2 elite WR (Odunze, Nabers) and the top 2 OT (Alt, Fashanu)? We're gunna hope that one of the top 10 offensive guys falls and is a guy we like at 11? Okayyyy I'm officially nervous.
I mean, yes, I get it, the Pats need help at a lot of positions. And yeah, if they hate the top 4 or so QB's, they should probably trade down and collect assets. But trading 3 for 11 & 23 feels like giving up a quarter for two dimes, where we're picking from the 2nd level of WR (Coleman, Thomas Jr, McConkey) and OT prospects (Mims, Fuaga, Latham) and missing out on the truly elite talent.
Not so sure Fashanu is the 2nd tackle off the board. I think he could slide beyond 11.
The rest I agree with 100%, trading down and missing elite talent to take a shot at very good talent doesn’t make sense for a team without a franchise QB, a legit #1 (or even #2) WR and a LT capable of being good let alone great.
Accumulating picks makes a lot of sense when the general tier of players is going to be the same (moving from late 1 to early/mid 2) but moving from 3 to 11 seems insane to me for the reasons you state
Yeah, it's an unlikely scenario. If they're not sold on QB3, take Harrison. As you pointed out, the teams that want the QBs -- Minn, LV, Denver -- are too far down in the pecking order to offer enough for it to make sense.
Never say never, and someone might go bonkers with an offer, but this isn't rocket science