NBA over/under

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,277
Projecting the Clippers to 48 wins means something. To me, that something means the projection system is seriously flawed. I really question if this system is any more accurate than the pundits, to be honest.
Projection systems miss all the time and sometimes quite badly. What you are saying may very well be accurate. However, we also have to take in the possibility of the converse being true: Fans and pundits are overrating this team based on the eye test and missing potential flaws that may be exposed over the course of a season.

It wouldn't be a stretch to say that the Clippers overachieved last year and then lost their two best players in a trade with the OKC. While they gained two better players in the deal both have been plagued by injuries in their career. Their system may be building in missed time by George/Kawhi and regression from their role players, all of which might pull down on their expected win total.
 

Tony C

Dope
Dope
Apr 13, 2000
11,077
It is true that the gap between what Gallinari produced last year is not far off from what Kawhi or PG will produce during the regular season -- he was really, really good and very healthy at least for Gallo (68 games played). Obviously no one would take Gallo over PG, but last season's Gallo was damn good...including 43.3% from behind the 3 point line.

Speaking of which, isn't 41 games kind of light on the Thunder given that a projection system isn't going to figure in a potential CP3 trade? (or Gallo trade, for that matter).
 

Big John

lurker
Dec 9, 2016
1,751
It wouldn't be a stretch to say that the Clippers overachieved last year and then lost their two best players in a trade with the OKC. While they gained two better players in the deal both have been plagued by injuries in their career. Their system may be building in missed time by George/Kawhi and regression from their role players, all of which might pull down on their expected win total.
Yes but that's wildly unlikely. In addition to Kawhi and PG13, the Clips retained Lou Williams, Beverley, Harrell, Zubac (thank you, Lakers) and Shamet. They added two veterans: JaMychal Green and Mo Harkless and will soon add Patrick Patterson. They drafted the 6-10 Kabengele (Mutumbo's nephew) and picked up McGruder after the Heat cut him to save money.

That roster is so good that Jerome Robinson can't get on the floor and Sindarius Thornwell-- a player I loved coming out of college-- didn't even make their top 15. The could play Kawhi for 41 games and PG13 for the other 41, and they would still be favorites to win over 50.
 

maufman

Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Gold Supporter
Projecting the Clippers to 48 wins means something. To me, that something means the projection system is seriously flawed. I really question if this system is any more accurate than the pundits, to be honest.
I have no dog in the fight when it comes to the merits (or lack thereof) of CARMELO, but the Clippers would expose the limitations of any projection system. I don’t see how any algorithm could accurately forecast (a) how many regular-season games Kawhi will play and how much effort he will expend in them; or (b) how much George will regress, coming off the best season of his career by far.

The one thing that CARMELO projection is clearly telling you is that it thinks the Clippers weren’t nearly as good last season as their 48-34 record would indicate. Which doesn’t seem intuitively wrong to me.
 

Tony C

Dope
Dope
Apr 13, 2000
11,077
Lou Williams is one of my favorite players, truly deserves the Sweet Lou nickname. And he's part of a good cast around Kawhi and PG. That said, he's slight, terrible defensively, and inefficient and inconsistent offensively.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
9,782
Somewhere
They’ve got Beverly and Harrell, those are very good supporting players. Very thin at center though, one of the few teams that I would prefer the Celtics’ big rotation to.
 

Big John

lurker
Dec 9, 2016
1,751
Last year Zubac gave them nearly 17 points and 14 rebounds per 36. He's ready for more minutes. Kabengele is also an excellent prospect.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,934
Last year Zubac gave them nearly 17 points and 14 rebounds per 36. He's ready for more minutes. Kabengele is also an excellent prospect.
Yeah they are more than fine with Harrell and Zubac for Doc to use based on matchups plus JaMychal will get a bunch of those 5 minutes as well. They don’t need their 5 to do much of anything offensively except for the dirty work with the ball in PG and KL’s hands and can always add another veteran by the deadline.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
9,782
Somewhere
I know you love Zubac, Bakes, but the dude played hardly at all last year. Those are not minutes you can evaluate clearly. Must love the scouting on the guy.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,934
I know you love Zubac, Bakes, but the dude played hardly at all last year. Those are not minutes you can evaluate clearly. Must love the scouting on the guy.
He’s there to matchup against low post bigs which will be a limited role. The other minutes go to Harrell and Green. This trio is more than capable of being competent playing off PG and KL for what they will be asked to do.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,635
Santa Monica
He’s there to matchup against low post bigs which will be a limited role. The other minutes go to Harrell and Green. This trio is more than capable of being competent playing off PG and KL for what they will be asked to do.
Zubac was another great pick up by the Clips last Spring. Young (22), cheap, BIG that can match up with larger/beefier centers.

Zubac, 80% FTs last season, should be working on his top of the key 3pt shot in the Summer.

I like that Doc started Zubac, playing him 20mpg. Classic lunchpail player. He balances the lineup, sets picks/screens for the Clippers most efficient offensive players (Paul George, Kawhi, Lou, Shamet, Pat Beverly) and is the 5th option on offense.

I'd expect Doc to continue to start him next season, sharing the 5 w/Harrell (26mpg). Green will pick up the scraps, but play over 90% of his minutes at the 4, as he did for the Clips last season.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,934
Zubac was another great pick up by the Clips last Spring. Young (22), cheap, BIG that can match up with larger/beefier centers.

Zubac, 80% FTs last season, should be working on his top of the key 3pt shot in the Summer.

I like that Doc started Zubac, playing him 20mpg. Classic lunchpail player. He balances the lineup, sets picks/screens for the Clippers most efficient offensive players (Paul George, Kawhi, Lou, Shamet, Pat Beverly) and is the 5th option on offense.

I'd expect Doc to continue to start him next season, sharing the 5 w/Harrell (26mpg). Green will pick up the scraps, but play over 90% of his minutes at the 4, as he did for the Clips last season.
I agree with all of this except Green playing 90% of his minutes at the 4. I have a sense that Doc is spending his summer drooling over a small ball frontcourt with Green, PG and KL which would create nightmares for opposing advance scouts.

My early guess for minutes at the 5 would be Harrell (24), Zubac (12), Green (12) which is of course matchup dependent on any given night. I don’t expect Zubac to play nearly as much as last year with all of the frontcourt additions and smallball lineup potential.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,635
Santa Monica
I agree with all of this except Green playing 90% of his minutes at the 4. I have a sense that Doc is spending his summer drooling over a small ball frontcourt with Green, PG and KL which would create nightmares for opposing advance scouts.

My early guess for minutes at the 5 would be Harrell (24), Zubac (12), Green (12) which is of course matchup dependent on any given night. I don’t expect Zubac to play nearly as much as last year with all of the frontcourt additions and smallball lineup potential.
haven't we been here before :redwine:

all joking aside, I think they really like Zubac, hence the 4yr deal. I'd be surprised if Doc took this 22yr kid and cut his minutes in half, when he started and played well for them last season. Green will get plenty of minutes when they give load days to Kawhi/PG.
 
Last edited:

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,546
I'm late to the party on this but those 538 protections are...interesting.

People are really high on the Lakers i guess.