NBA Finals: Celtics vs Mavs
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
- Start date
That's my fear. It's not a 1-game anomaly but Dallas has figured a lot of things out and it'll now take some major adjustments from the C's for game 5 (and perhaps beyond).
HOLD ME
It's correctable on the surface in two ways:
1. Don't overpenetrate. Once they show (that is, they are committing low), you kick. Don't drive into the trees at the rim and kick. You're not going to get the same kind of magical rotation you normally seek but you're going to get wide open threes on one pass. Dallas yeah they want to live with this. But, the Celtics will be home and are such good shooters they can make them pay. KP would help a ton here bc he can space these soft drive and kicks with 27 feet of gravity.
2. If you commit to the drive and score you're going against a late helper in the restricted area, be prepared for a strong battle at the rim and finishing through contact and hope the refs are more fair than they were tonight.
But, that's a surface take. I'm sure Joe and his staff with maybe some additional input from Brad can figure out ways to disguise their drives more effectively so it's not always so clear when they are going to attack. Also, this matters, Dallas rose to the occasion tonight especially Luka and at times Kyrie, can they do that at Boston for 48 minutes again? We'll see.
1. Don't overpenetrate. Once they show (that is, they are committing low), you kick. Don't drive into the trees at the rim and kick. You're not going to get the same kind of magical rotation you normally seek but you're going to get wide open threes on one pass. Dallas yeah they want to live with this. But, the Celtics will be home and are such good shooters they can make them pay. KP would help a ton here bc he can space these soft drive and kicks with 27 feet of gravity.
2. If you commit to the drive and score you're going against a late helper in the restricted area, be prepared for a strong battle at the rim and finishing through contact and hope the refs are more fair than they were tonight.
But, that's a surface take. I'm sure Joe and his staff with maybe some additional input from Brad can figure out ways to disguise their drives more effectively so it's not always so clear when they are going to attack. Also, this matters, Dallas rose to the occasion tonight especially Luka and at times Kyrie, can they do that at Boston for 48 minutes again? We'll see.
Do you think they considered Lukas’s conditioning and affirmatively decided to have him give maximum effort (on both sides) in the first half as it might make more sense to concentrate that towards building a lead rather than just having him hang around in the fourth?
Me? I’m no expert. Not thrilled Kidd came up with adjustments, but it was after three games and he’s one of the greatest movement PGs who ever lived, however distasteful I find him.
I take seriously what many have said that Tatum is one of the most versatile offense originators there’s even been, and that CJM has the personnel to work with what CJM might come up with, and I think CJM is total crazy person.
It’s hard for me to imagine the Celtics not taking 1 out of 3, especially if there’s one of those games where Jaylen Brown just goes, “No.” like Wyatt Earp in Tombstone. What changes the Celtics might make would be for people here smarter about basketball than I. But me sense early on was that the Celtics got taken off guard by what they saw, and on D, check out Luka’s 1H v 2H numbers. And the Cs have made adjustments in the past, sometimes even in the same game.
I wouldn’t bet against them. But, again, that’s based on an overview of how they operate; others here know the mechanics so much better than I.
Idk if this is in response to my legit concerns… all these things said… Dallas would have to execute at a high level for everything I’ve put out there for three more straight games with no adjustments by the Celtics just in order to win all three remaining games. Odds are heavy that they cannot execute the same game plan. With no adjustments by the Celtics for three more games in a row. Calm down, everyone.
Just amazing that a team this hungry for a championship could shit their pants this bad when they finally had a chance to win one. Dallas had very, very little chance to win this series going into last night’s geme - and maybe they still don’t. But the Cs complete meltdown last night was exactly what Dallas needed.
The Cs looked like they had no idea how to play basketball and honestly the final score does not reflect how lopsided this game really was. They really should have lost by 50 - or more. How a team this good can play this bad is a mystery, but they did everything they possibly could to make this a series while profoundly embarrassing themselves in the process. Just incredibly frustrating…
The Cs looked like they had no idea how to play basketball and honestly the final score does not reflect how lopsided this game really was. They really should have lost by 50 - or more. How a team this good can play this bad is a mystery, but they did everything they possibly could to make this a series while profoundly embarrassing themselves in the process. Just incredibly frustrating…
It would be the most Celtics-y thing possible to blow G5 at home in agonizing fashion... and then go win G6 handily in Dallas once everyone is freaking out that the sky is falling. I've been vacillating between Boston in 5 vs. Boston in 6 the whole series, and neither outcome would surprise me. (I did get the "win G3, then lose G4" part right, fwiw).
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I felt 100% of this last night, but I feel much better after sleeping on it. They got jumped by a desperate team and it’s more credit to Dallas than shame for the Celtics. Human nature definitely crept in and they took their foot off the gas up 3-0. Not the first team to do it and won’t be the last. All good as long as they take care of business in Game 5. If anything, it’s way cooler to clinch at home.
Let’s see…
1. Celtics’ shots were just a bit off, especially in the first half. If they made the usual percentages, it would have been a much closer game.
2. They were scrambling a bit on defense, leaving corner threes open and being out of position for rebounds. A little better defense would clean that up.
3. Due to their poor shooting, they surrendered a few lobs and dunks in transition. Shooting better will cut that down.
4. If PP doesn’t make his threes, he’s a liability because he can be exposed on defense.
5. It would have been nice to have a healthy KP out there. At least he and the starters got some extra rest for Game 5.
6. Teams play better at home. Celtics got one of two on the road. Dallas has yet to win in Boston.
I think the Celtics are okay.
1. Celtics’ shots were just a bit off, especially in the first half. If they made the usual percentages, it would have been a much closer game.
2. They were scrambling a bit on defense, leaving corner threes open and being out of position for rebounds. A little better defense would clean that up.
3. Due to their poor shooting, they surrendered a few lobs and dunks in transition. Shooting better will cut that down.
4. If PP doesn’t make his threes, he’s a liability because he can be exposed on defense.
5. It would have been nice to have a healthy KP out there. At least he and the starters got some extra rest for Game 5.
6. Teams play better at home. Celtics got one of two on the road. Dallas has yet to win in Boston.
I think the Celtics are okay.
They are 1-1 in Dallas withiut KP. No one with a brain larger than a walnut would look at those 2 games and say that the Celtics are clearly the better team.
If they drop game 5, I don't expect a win in game 6, either, because this matchup favors Dallas in Dallas. Aside from us blowing them out in the third quarter of game 3, Dallas has had the better of the play throughout these 2 games.
I looked at games 3 and 4. You think what they did on the road against Indy is a better barometer?
Id be worried about a game 6 after being up 3-0 on the road or at home, and agree that without KP they aren’t clearly a better team. But, it was more than just the third quarter of game 3 imo…they were down 25-12 seven minutes into the game. They then “beat” Dallas 79-45 over the next 2.5 quarters. That’s a substantial amount of a basketball game that is more than just a dominant quarter.
And as I said while I’d be nervous for game 6, I think the chances of Boston having another long dominant stretch of basketball like we saw in game 3> chances of dallas doing the same as last night.
Yeah, they didn't play well at all in a lot of ways, but they missed a lot of shots in the first they usually make including some layups and floaters, then packed it in in the second half. I don't think we'd see the panicky posts today if they had normal shooting variance and had lost by 10-ish.
This is largely how I saw the game as well, with a potential #6 that the there were two specific half-court actions that Boston ran repeatedly and very successfully in game 3 that Dallas very quickly recognized and had counters for in game 4
We talk about playoff basketball as a game of chess. And I know I'm repeating myself from somewhere around here and an early playoff series, but I sometimes think the better metaphor is that a seven-game playoff series is like a game of rock-paper-scissors. Each team's coaching staff comes up with a bunch of stuff, the two teams each run that stuff, and then each side goes back and decides what they're going to do next time.
We came out and tried to play largely the same game we played in game 3. Makes sense. It worked in game 3. It's just that Dallas came out with a whole lot of different.
These two are the durable takeaways for me - without KP, Celtics need to rebound more as a team and did not. That's about Tillman, but also about Tatum, Brown, Jrue, White helping especially on defensive boards. That will impact how quickly we get it up court, and lack of offensive pace has helped Dallas defense all series. I just think the Tatum at 5 sets are too small for this opponent.
Celtics just don't have an answer size-wise - Kornet can play (and perhaps should) with Luka out but he'll be cooked with Luka hunting him. So it has to be about positioning and aggression from the guys out there. And I do think Tillman can do more - he has looked ok out there, and rebounding is an area he can contribute and will be needed if KP continues to be unavailable.
No rebounds, no rings.
Luckily, people who don’t have brains wired to get off on panic are able to step back and look at a 100 game sample (or 37 game sample if you want sans KP) over a 2-game sample in which the teams are each 1-1. Boston is very capable of winning a Game 6 if it gets there, and we’ve seen all sorts of over the top prognostications like this throughout the playoffs that have blown up in the progosticators’ faces. Vegas would probably give Boston something like 40% odds to win Game 6, if it got there. It’s better odds than Dallas has Game 5 or would have in a Game 7.
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It is human nature for a team that had a hard fought, super emotional win to come out flat the next game. Just to repeat myself, this was a lot like the MOL game after the MIN overtime win. You see it all the from youth sports to even the NFL.
By contrast, DAL was super desperate and flying around everywhere. DAL killed BOS in transition, which they hadn’t done before in the series.
Sports is a super emotional endeavor and the Cs lacked any emotion. I don’t expect that to be an issue in G5.
Frankly the biggest issue to me is if Kryie and Luka can hold Ip on defense, then the Cs are going to be in trouble.
Always fun when a poster always takes the most negative take ever on anything Celtics and then calls anyone that disagrees with them as being unintelligent.. as if they’re the only person that knows anything.
It’s almost as if Boston hasn’t had two other bad losses in the playoffs and come back to win the next one.. almost as if this game doesn’t count for more than one loss.. celts haven’t lost in over a month.. so now they’re going to lose four in a row? Impossible to see them win in Dallas? Going to lose two in a row at home? It could happen I guess, but there’s far less evidence for that as a possibility than the opposite but ok.
It is disappointing however the notion that a great team hungry for a championship should never get blown out in a Finals loss is silly. It is not uncommon for great teams to have a bad night.
- The 2017 Warriors lost a Finals game by 21 and went on to win a championship.
- The 2000 Lakers lost a Finals game by 33 and went on to win a championship.
- The 1996 Bulls lost a Finals game by 21 and went on to win a championship.
- The 1988 Lakers lost a Finals game by 25 and went on to win a championship.
- The 1985 Lakers lost a Finals game by 34 and went on to win a championship.
- The 1984 Celtics lost a Finals game by 33 and went on to win a championship.
- The 1982 Lakers lost a Finals game by 33 and went on to win a championship.
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These results, excluding 2017, were before 3PT variance started impacting the game. So those loses are even worse than the Celtics one last night.
Yes I fully agree. Don't panic. The Celtics are the better team and they are going to win the series. I think they wrap it up on Monday but even if that doesn't happen they get two more chances beyond that game. Dallas does not have the personnel, focus or conditioning to rip off 4 games in a row.
I'm not sure which of the "Do we panic or panic a lot?" threads to post this in, but...
Dallas made a bunch of adjustments in game 5, including (in the 2nd and 3rd quarters) playing the biggest/longest guys they had at each position, and using that length to disrupt passing lanes and drives that had previously had ~20% more space. And some of those guys had not seen as much action earlier in the series, so for all sorts of predictable reasons came out on fire. Which both helped Dallas' defense and especially their rebounding.
But there's no reason to think that the emotional/psychological swing from one game to the next is the last swing that will happen in this series. Game 1 of this series was a thing, and the games that followed were different. Game 2 again was it's own thing, and the games that followed were different. Same with game 3. Same with game 4.
Put another way: we don't need to live in mortal fear of Dante Exum and Maxi Kleber playing more minutes, and PJ Washington and Derrick Jones playing less.
We just gotta break down what happened, come up with our responses, and go execute
Dallas made a bunch of adjustments in game 5, including (in the 2nd and 3rd quarters) playing the biggest/longest guys they had at each position, and using that length to disrupt passing lanes and drives that had previously had ~20% more space. And some of those guys had not seen as much action earlier in the series, so for all sorts of predictable reasons came out on fire. Which both helped Dallas' defense and especially their rebounding.
But there's no reason to think that the emotional/psychological swing from one game to the next is the last swing that will happen in this series. Game 1 of this series was a thing, and the games that followed were different. Game 2 again was it's own thing, and the games that followed were different. Same with game 3. Same with game 4.
Put another way: we don't need to live in mortal fear of Dante Exum and Maxi Kleber playing more minutes, and PJ Washington and Derrick Jones playing less.
We just gotta break down what happened, come up with our responses, and go execute
Another thought on this front, and a historical parallel
A part of Jason Kidd's coaching track record has always been a soft spot for lineups full of super-long players.
When he was the head coach back in Giannis' first few years in Milwaukee, Kidd tried to build a whole rotation like this. It's why he went with 6'5" Michael Carter-Williams as his starting PG. It's what got us the "Is Thon Maker an NBA player?" several year experiment. And those super-fluid Miles Plumlee/Greg Monroe frontcourt pairings.
A little bit like the old underwear gnomes skit on South Park the premise seemed to be that first you got really long everywhere, then some set of other things happened, and then: profit!
Only in this case the 'profit' step was Kidd getting fired and replaced with Joe Prunty
Anyway. Since they're not sleeping this month anyway, if I were Mazzulla in addition to the normal close review of game 4 that everyone is going to do, I'd have one or two of the back-bench assistant coaches boot up game footage of those old Bucks teams, and look at how other teams' successfully countered those super-long lineups and the defensive sets that the Mavs were playing last night.
Not for nothing, but good ideas come from all over. And there are reasons why, over time, the whole 'choose length over everything else' thing ended up being more of an unsuccessful gimmick than a sustained path to a championship
This is Belichick esque. I love it! And I bet Joe would too.
The flat play began early in the fourth quarter of game 3, a game the Celtics might well have lost if not for thr fortunate break of Luka fouling out on a call that could have gone either way or not been made at all. I’d be less worried about what happens if Dallas extends if not for that.
Well, sure.
But this is only true if you ignore the Celtics decidedly not-flat play in the back-half of 4th. The part where they went on a 5-0 and then a 6-0 runs to win the game
Anything that celebrates those legends is far from lame. Nobody thinks it's an actual premonition.
My prediction machine is broken! I had the Celtics sweeping.
Everything was going swimmingly & believed being down 3-0 would lead to Kyrie mailing it in.
Hat tip to LuKy playing defense for the first time in the Finals.
Expecting Boston to get LuKy into the action with plenty of horn sets (instead of solo downhill ISO) on Monday.
Everything was going swimmingly & believed being down 3-0 would lead to Kyrie mailing it in.
Hat tip to LuKy playing defense for the first time in the Finals.
Expecting Boston to get LuKy into the action with plenty of horn sets (instead of solo downhill ISO) on Monday.
This really feels like it.
Dallas's adjustment seemed to be to help early on the drives to slow down the penetration and make rotations easier.
There are a few ways to punish that.
1- Space better for the driver. Get a switch and clear out. Don't let anyone take one step to reach a hand in, force them to commit a couple steps off their man.
2- Look for the early pass. Punish the adjacent players hedging with passes and three attempts. Driving off the wing to pull away from the corner 3 is best. This is especially effective combined with 1.
3- More off ball cuts. Dallas's defense is ball watching, trying to disrupt drives. Force them to be honest with some more backdoor cuts and off ball movement.
I don't think this was some brilliant new scheme, just more aggressive help and a bunch of players playing with desperation and reckless abandon. A prepared Celtics team should be able to adjust and punish.
Not so much ignore as discount. Those runs happened after Dallas' best player fouled out - I think the call was fair, but it's likely not something the Celtics can count on happening again going forward.
I need to watch more, but it feels a lot like what Spoelstra has done often against Boston. It's solveable.
The CJM Celtics are one of the better teams out there at problem-solving given film and a day or two.
Posting this here because this isn't discourse. Its just a nice bloodless breakdown of game four.
View: https://youtu.be/N5zyhiJvFvs?si=Q3QHqszQ_zCQOIr7
View: https://youtu.be/N5zyhiJvFvs?si=Q3QHqszQ_zCQOIr7