NBA Finals: Celtics vs Mavs

Who wins?

  • Celtics in 4

    Votes: 22 5.0%
  • Celtics in 5

    Votes: 120 27.3%
  • Celtics in 6

    Votes: 222 50.6%
  • Celtics in 7

    Votes: 52 11.8%
  • Mavs in 4-5

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Mavs in 6-7

    Votes: 20 4.6%

  • Total voters
    439
  • Poll closed .

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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On this note, I’d really like to see the assists stats actually include:

2 points for each 2 point FG
3 points for each 3 point FG
1 point for each FT

So it’s not just the number of assists, but really how many points your passes directly lead to. If you dish a dime to a guy for a dunk and he gets mangled in order to prevent the dunk, but makes two free throws, you don’t get any “credit” for an assist. But you should. You should get credit for two assist points on this play.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Yup, but it's not quality offense.

If your offense is based around tough shots, even for an all-time great, and that's not putting the defense into rotation, the team scoring is going to be awful.

Not to mention that the star will be more tired on D, can't do it every possession on O, and will wear down as the game goes along.
Timpf goes into further detail.

Tatum is creating Catch & Shoot shots for his teammates who are getting closed out. That shot is worth a lot more than Pull-Up jumpers in isolation & guarded.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFZGPD-v2W4
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Jun 6, 2012
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When I see all these takes about Doncic need apologies from all his teammates for this series, I honestly get a little bit mad on their behalf. It must be very difficult to play with him because of the constant ballwashing he gets, knowing full well he's a fucking sieve/flat out lazy half the game and your ass has to expend all its energy making up for it. The lack of effort must deep down gnaw at some guys who have half the talent, but put the work in at the gym and get no credit and all the blame.
He also bitches out dudes when shit goes wrong, like, he had words for Kleber when he threw an atrocious behind the back pass 15 ft. to Kleber's right.
 

radsoxfan

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I can’t get over Luka coming out for pre game introductions wrapped like a mummy with ice packs all over his entire body.

It looked absurd, reeked of “look at me I’m so hurt and so tough”. Also a hedge against him playing poorly and/or his team getting swept.

It could not possibly have been any physical help at all, 100% for show.

Combine that with his incessant whining and he really is so unlikeable.
 

dhellers

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Timpf goes into further detail.

Tatum is creating Catch & Shoot shots for his teammates who are getting closed out. That shot is worth a lot more than Pull-Up jumpers in isolation & guarded.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFZGPD-v2W4
Does Timpf really think that Luka is in the "top 3" while Tatum (and now Brown) are in the next tier? With all of Luka's not-easily-fixed defensive issues, and his rather mediocre availabity?
 

benhogan

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Does Timpf really think that Luka is in the "top 3" while Tatum (and now Brown) are in the next tier? With all of Luka's not-easily-fixed defensive issues, and his rather mediocre availabity?
We will just have to live with POINTZ! being the barometer of greatness from the NBA Media.

It's pretty much why I haven't cared about player rankings, All-Star, All-NBA, or individual awards for a while.

PPG + popularity leads teams to ship out Jrue Holiday(+picks) for Dame. If you didn't like that deal this year wait until Dame's defense takes another tick down next season

As long as we have Brad/Zarren pulling the strings this team will be good for a while.
 
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lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
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Wait, Boston is an underdog for game 3? That seems completely bonkers based on how the first two games have gone.

I'm sure it's based on something, but homecourt hasn't been that big a deal for this team.
 

RorschachsMask

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Wait, Boston is an underdog for game 3? That seems completely bonkers based on how the first two games have gone.

I'm sure it's based on something, but homecourt hasn't been that big a deal for this team.
I think it’s just based on the idea that the Mavs will be desperate.

It won’t matter for them lol.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
25,422
Wait, Boston is an underdog for game 3? That seems completely bonkers based on how the first two games have gone.

I'm sure it's based on something, but homecourt hasn't been that big a deal for this team.
Really? The Mavs lost a pretty close game on the road in game 2, with Kyrie playing terrible. Normally, role players do better at home than the road. It's not difficult to see how people could think the Mavs should be able to win a game at home here.

I wouldn't bet on the Mavs, but I can see why lots of people would.
 

Saints Rest

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Really? The Mavs lost a pretty close game on the road in game 2, with Kyrie playing terrible. Normally, role players do better at home than the road. It's not difficult to see how people could think the Mavs should be able to win a game at home here.

I wouldn't bet on the Mavs, but I can see why lots of people would.
I have one thing to say: 6-0
 

lexrageorge

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Wait, Boston is an underdog for game 3? That seems completely bonkers based on how the first two games have gone.

I'm sure it's based on something, but homecourt hasn't been that big a deal for this team.
I think it’s just based on the idea that the Mavs will be desperate.

It won’t matter for them lol.
In general, taking the home team for Game 3 of the Finals when they are down 2-0 has been a decent bet. Since 1980, the home team has gone 13-7 when down 2-0:

Home team win down 2-0: 2021 (Bucks*), 2020 (Heat), 2016 (Cavs*), 2009 (Magic), 2008 (Lakers), 2006 (Heat*), 2005 (Pistons**), 2000 (Pacers), 1999 (Knicks), 1997 (Jazz), 1993 (Suns), 1987 (Celtics), 1986 (Rockets)

The Bucks won the series in 6, while the 2016 Cavs and 2006 Heat won in 7 games. The common denominator is that all 3 teams had a generational talent (Giannis, LeBron, Shaq). The 2005 Pistons are the only such team to force a 7th game and lose.

Sweeps: 2018, 2007, 2002, 1995, 1989, 1983

The 2017 Cavs were the only team to lose the first 3 and then win Game 4, before eventually losing to the Warriors in 5.

EDIT: Going back further, the overall record for the home team in Game 3 when down 2-0 is 22-13 (0.628 winning percentage). However, only 5 of those 35 teams came back to win the trophy (adding in Russell's Celtics and Walton's Blazers).

All time, of the 13 home teams that lost Game 3 to go down 3-0, 9 were swept, two lost in 5, one lost in 6, and the 1951 Knicks stretched their series to 7 games before losing to the Rochester Royals.

Win down 2-0: 1955 Ft Wayne Pistons (extended series against Syracuse Nationals to 7), 1961 (Hawks over Celtics), 1963 (Lakers over Celtics), 1964 (Warriors over Celtics), 1965 (Lakers over Celtics), 1967 (Warriors over Sixers), 1969 (Celtics* over Lakers), 1976 (Suns over Celtics), 1977 (Blazers* over 76'ers),

Lose G3, win G4: 1947 (Chicago Stags, 5 loss to Warriors), 1949 (Washington Capitols, lose to Minn Lakers in 6), 1951 (Knicks force game 7 against Rochester Royals),

Sweeps: 1959 (Celtics over Minn Lakers), 1971 (Bucks), 1975 (Warriors)
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

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I get the historical comps, but those are based on relatively evenly matched Finals teams. This has been one team generating endless quality 3s and the other slogging through heavily contested halfcourt offense.

Game 2 was close only because the Celtics played prevent offense/defense down the stretch, and because they shot horrifically on good looks for good shooters.
 

benhogan

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I get the historical comps, but those are based on relatively evenly matched Finals teams. This has been one team generating endless quality 3s and the other slogging through heavily contested halfcourt offense.

Game 2 was close only because the Celtics played prevent offense/defense down the stretch, and because they shot horrifically on good looks for good shooters.
Yea but if Tatum had gone -2 for 7 from 3 the Celtics would have lost by 2 points.

Listening to the NBA media has me believing JT will get there.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
31,252
Wait, Boston is an underdog for game 3? That seems completely bonkers based on how the first two games have gone.

I'm sure it's based on something, but homecourt hasn't been that big a deal for this team.
The team down 0-2 and coming home have historically done very well in the NBA playoffs especially in covering the 1H line. I feel this matchup is different on several levels though.

Edit: I did not read entire thread prior to posting. Lexrageorge beat me to it.
 

lovegtm

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The team down 0-2 and coming home have historically done very well in the NBA playoffs especially in covering the 1H line. I feel this matchup is different on several levels though.

Edit: I did not read entire thread prior to posting. Lexrageorge beat me to it.
I totally get the historical precedent; it's just odd to me that the line isn't reflecting what you are seeing on the floor.

Like, I could imagine Cs -2 or something, but straight up underdog is wild in the context of what we've seen wrt Dallas' lack of viable adjustments through 2 games.
 

McBride11

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The quality of MBPC discourse has really improved as people have learned what to watch for in the Celtics' offense (and defense, but offense in particular). There are reasonable differences of opinion, but I'm happy that the debates being had are of a much higher level than what I see elsewhere, and that the remedial basics of "how to watch the Celtics" have been covered.
I mean this is a credit to you and several other bball savants. The shit ive learned here is incredible. This is a woefully incomplete list but yall like benhogan, hrb, radsox, auger, reggieC, bsf, rorschach, and many others is so educational. Much appreciated to all the mbpc regulars. Is there a posting efficiency stat? xPG%?

Now, what im curious about is, how important is mazzulla? Or any nba coach at this level? I genuinely dont know. He calls time outs and draws up plays. Red, Jackson, Pop, Kerr etc have generally had stacked talent.

Generally you’re looking at the top ~200 people at their job in the world for nba players. Even scal would destroy any of us.
How much does the coach make that much difference?

For example, JT : Jb couldnt figure out to slow it down to expose a weakness? Or is it more he implements a certain plan and people stick to it bc ‘they are coach’.
I mean he isnt gonna bench Tatum bc he is crashing to double Luka

Ill hang up and listen
 

Ed Hillel

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I can’t get over Luka coming out for pre game introductions wrapped like a mummy with ice packs all over his entire body.
It was actually worse than that. He came out very late for shootaround with no wraps, then had a guy put the wraps on leading up to the cameras rolling for coverage, then took them off within 5 minutes, and was moving completely fine when the game started. He was laboring 2nd half, but it looked more like Type 2ka huffing at air laboring.

I guess the one thing I’ll say is this could be a Kidd thing vs. a Luka thing.
 

lars10

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He also bitches out dudes when shit goes wrong, like, he had words for Kleber when he threw an atrocious behind the back pass 15 ft. to Kleber's right.
I think that was more about Kleber fouling after the pass.. It may not have been because he does seem to blame his teammates a lot, but in that instance it looked like he was more mad about the foul.. he did say in the press conference that he had to stop turning it over and be better.
 

radsoxfan

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It was actually worse than that. He came out very late for shootaround with no wraps, then had a guy put the wraps on leading up to the cameras rolling for coverage, then took them off within 5 minutes, and was moving completely fine when the game started. He was laboring 2nd half, but it looked more like Type 2ka huffing at air laboring.

Yup. I was at the game also and being there it was straight up INSANE.

Like WWE level fake. I cannot emphasize enough how ridiculous and medically useless that entire charade was. There’s no chance the medical staff or a coach could have recommended it.

In the best possible light, he’s really immature and looking for attention/sympathy/cover for a bad performance.

If Tatum or Brown did something so absurd I’d think way less of them.
 

lovegtm

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Yup. I was at the game also and being there it was straight up INSANE.

Like WWE level fake. I cannot emphasize enough how ridiculous and medically useless that entire charade was. There’s no chance the medical staff or a coach could have recommended it.

In the best possible light, he’s really immature and looking for attention/sympathy/cover for a bad performance.

If Tatum or Brown did something so absurd I’d think way less of them.
Like.....what does this say about where his priorities are?
 

Justthetippett

New Member
Aug 9, 2015
2,858
Yup. I was at the game also and being there it was straight up INSANE.

Like WWE level fake. I cannot emphasize enough how ridiculous and medically useless that entire charade was. There’s no chance the medical staff or a coach could have recommended it.

In the best possible light, he’s really immature and looking for attention/sympathy/cover for a bad performance.

If Tatum or Brown did something so absurd I’d think way less of them.
It's also going to be tough to top. Maybe they roll him out in a cold tub for G3?
 

lars10

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Yup. I was at the game also and being there it was straight up INSANE.

Like WWE level fake. I cannot emphasize enough how ridiculous and medically useless that entire charade was. There’s no chance the medical staff or a coach could have recommended it.

In the best possible light, he’s really immature and looking for attention/sympathy/cover for a bad performance.

If Tatum or Brown did something so absurd I’d think way less of them.
Was it his Paul Pierce moment?
 

radsoxfan

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Was it his Paul Pierce moment?
Far worse and clearly premeditated. Seems like Pierce got spooked in the heat of the moment and overreacted to something that turned out to be minor.

I have no idea if Luka has any real injury at all (seems like soreness/out of shape stuff if I had to guess).

But regardless, the theatrics of his brief made for TV, pre game 2 mummification definitely makes you wonder what on earth is going on with him.
 

jose melendez

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Yup. I was at the game also and being there it was straight up INSANE.

Like WWE level fake. I cannot emphasize enough how ridiculous and medically useless that entire charade was. There’s no chance the medical staff or a coach could have recommended it.

In the best possible light, he’s really immature and looking for attention/sympathy/cover for a bad performance.

If Tatum or Brown did something so absurd I’d think way less of them.
Shades of Paul Pierce.
 

NoXInNixon

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I totally get the historical precedent; it's just odd to me that the line isn't reflecting what you are seeing on the floor.

Like, I could imagine Cs -2 or something, but straight up underdog is wild in the context of what we've seen wrt Dallas' lack of viable adjustments through 2 games.
There's the conspiracy angle that says the NBA doesn't want the series to end in a sweep, so every close call is going to go against the Celtics.
 

lexrageorge

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I totally get the historical precedent; it's just odd to me that the line isn't reflecting what you are seeing on the floor.

Like, I could imagine Cs -2 or something, but straight up underdog is wild in the context of what we've seen wrt Dallas' lack of viable adjustments through 2 games.
I realize some people don't like to hear this, but it's a lot more than just "sharp money" that sets the betting lines these days (be curious to see how much AI goes into the line setting these days).

A lot of those examples I cited were indeed situations where the team down 0-2 looked hopelessly outmatched in the first 2 games. Dallas has a talented roster still, and between the chance of a Luka/Kyrie explosion, likelihood of a Mavs-friendly whistle, possibility of KP being limited (we'll know more on that later today), and general home team advantage, it makes sense for the books to give Dallas a slight edge.

If the Celtics win Game 3 by 30, they will probably be slight faves in Game 4.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I realize some people don't like to hear this, but it's a lot more than just "sharp money" that sets the betting lines these days (be curious to see how much AI goes into the line setting these days).
if AI was setting lines based on all available public information , Dallas would be favored by 20 each game, assuming sports media was part of that info.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I mean this is a credit to you and several other bball savants. The shit ive learned here is incredible. This is a woefully incomplete list but yall like benhogan, hrb, radsox, auger, reggieC, bsf, rorschach, and many others is so educational. Much appreciated to all the mbpc regulars. Is there a posting efficiency stat? xPG%?

Now, what im curious about is, how important is mazzulla? Or any nba coach at this level? I genuinely dont know. He calls time outs and draws up plays. Red, Jackson, Pop, Kerr etc have generally had stacked talent.

Generally you’re looking at the top ~200 people at their job in the world for nba players. Even scal would destroy any of us.
How much does the coach make that much difference?

For example, JT : Jb couldnt figure out to slow it down to expose a weakness? Or is it more he implements a certain plan and people stick to it bc ‘they are coach’.
I mean he isnt gonna bench Tatum bc he is crashing to double Luka

Ill hang up and listen
I think coaching matters. Maybe not as much as talent but to get to the top, a team generally has to have great talent plus at least good coaching. And it's not calling TOs or challenges. It's the implementation of a system and getting player buy-in so that everyone on the roster knows - and accepts - their role. plus implementing a system that works to players' strength may be a catalyst flr success (compare Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr on GSW).
 

Preacher

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I picked Celts in 5. But I saw this little card next to my car in the parking lot this morning and I’m thinking sweep (I realize the card is about car washing but I don’t care).

84015
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
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I mean this is a credit to you and several other bball savants. The shit ive learned here is incredible. This is a woefully incomplete list but yall like benhogan, hrb, radsox, auger, reggieC, bsf, rorschach, and many others is so educational. Much appreciated to all the mbpc regulars. Is there a posting efficiency stat? xPG%?

Now, what im curious about is, how important is mazzulla? Or any nba coach at this level? I genuinely dont know. He calls time outs and draws up plays. Red, Jackson, Pop, Kerr etc have generally had stacked talent.

Generally you’re looking at the top ~200 people at their job in the world for nba players. Even scal would destroy any of us.
How much does the coach make that much difference?

For example, JT : Jb couldnt figure out to slow it down to expose a weakness? Or is it more he implements a certain plan and people stick to it bc ‘they are coach’.
I mean he isnt gonna bench Tatum bc he is crashing to double Luka

Ill hang up and listen
Mazzulla has done an incredible job. He got Tatum to buy in to playing the 5 which has been a brilliant move to completely stymie the Mavs offense. He also has the team not selling out for Luka. That is incredibly difficult. In order to play team defense like they have you need to have a good coach.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Dallas' offense

- Reg season: 89.7 FGA/g, 48.1% FG, 117.8 points
- 1st 3 playoff rounds: 82.8 FGA/g, 47.0% FG, 107.9 points
- NBA finals: 82.0 FGA/g, 44.5% FG, 93.5 points

The game has ground to a halt for Dallas, and they are struggling mightily. Shooting just 24.5% from three. Scoring 24.3 fewer points per game than during the regular season. Just remarkable.
 

joe dokes

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I think coaching matters. Maybe not as much as talent but to get to the top, a team generally has to have great talent plus at least good coaching. And it's not calling TOs or challenges. It's the implementation of a system and getting player buy-in so that everyone on the roster knows - and accepts - their role. plus implementing a system that works to players' strength may be a catalyst flr success (compare Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr on GSW).
To me, the system is necessary, but not sufficient. Every coach has a system of sorts. The buy-in is where the rubber meets the road, as any "system," by definition, will conflict with several players' natural instincts of what to do in given situations. And its exponentially harder than it was 30-40 years ago, as players have significantly more power than they used to.
 

McBride11

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Mazzulla has done an incredible job. He got Tatum to buy in to playing the 5 which has been a brilliant move to completely stymie the Mavs offense. He also has the team not selling out for Luka. That is incredibly difficult. In order to play team defense like they have you need to have a good coach.
Since these are generally lauded as high BBiQ players with several vets - would they not have bought in if AH or Jrue laid out this plan?

Would Tatum not have become, for lack of better phrasing, the decoy to allow the 4 others out there smoke Kyrie and Luka?

Like most of mbpc, you included, seemed to say - let Luka cook but limit off ball passes (lobs), work him on D, and hit our shots.

Tric coulda drawn an MS paint diagram of that strategy. Ps also miss those
 

RorschachsMask

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Dallas' offense

- Reg season: 89.7 FGA/g, 48.1% FG, 117.8 points
- 1st 3 playoff rounds: 82.8 FGA/g, 47.0% FG, 107.9 points
- NBA finals: 82.0 FGA/g, 44.5% FG, 93.5 points

The game has ground to a halt for Dallas, and they are struggling mightily. Shooting just 24.5% from three. Scoring 24.3 fewer points per game than during the regular season. Just remarkable.
They’re a team that lives off of corner threes, besides Luka. Celtics are the best team in the league at limiting them, especially when fully healthy.
 

The Raccoon

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if AI was setting lines based on all available public information , Dallas would be favored by 20 each game, assuming sports media was part of that info.
Keep in mind, that AI would factor in past predicions by those "experts" and their actual reliability.
So - as an example - KOC predicting Dallas winning this series in 6 would be calculated together with the fact that KOC also predicted
- LAC beating the Mavs
- OKC beating he Mavs
- MIN beating the Mavs
among others...

So KOCs predicions would either be ignored by AI or used to favor the Cs.

If only I could be more like AI and get less annoyed by all that bullshit...
 

TomRicardo

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Since these are generally lauded as high BBiQ players with several vets - would they not have bought in if AH or Jrue laid out this plan?

Would Tatum not have become, for lack of better phrasing, the decoy to allow the 4 others out there smoke Kyrie and Luka?

Like most of mbpc, you included, seemed to say - let Luka cook but limit off ball passes (lobs), work him on D, and hit our shots.

Tric coulda drawn an MS paint diagram of that strategy. Ps also miss those
I actually did in the Tatum thread showing how Tatum was taking away the Mavs offense.